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Thread: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

  1. #1
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    Default 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    @SunTimesIreland @banda_ie #poll
    FF 32 +3
    FG 21 -2
    SF 19 +2
    Lab 6 +1
    IA 5 +2
    AAA/PBP 3 -2
    SocDems 2 +1
    Green 2 -1
    WP 1 +1
    Other 8 -7
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    Thar she blows !!!

    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    Yes, that turn to single issue campaigning worked well for them... not....

    AAA/PBP 3 -2
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    Do you vote, CF?
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

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    Default Re: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Thar she blows !!!

    That IS funny
    OK.....also sad..but dammit if ya don't laugh ya might cry.

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    Default Re: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    Quote Originally Posted by pluralist View Post
    Do you vote, CF?
    Early, and often.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    Quite simply it's likely to be a dodgy poll because there are too many out of the ordinary swings in it.

    It's very unlikely that the Inds declined from 15% to 8% in a month, just like the same company had them making similar huge falls and rise in the 2 previous polls.


    There's a very large anomaly in the Munster support levels in the data sheets for this poll on the B&A website.

    In Munster when undecideds are removed it's showing FF 48%, FG 15%, SF 17%, Labour 5%, Ind-Others 15%.

    That's then adjusted to FF 44%, FG 17%, SF 17%, Labour 7%, Ind-Others 16%.

    It's fairly unlikely that there's actually a 27% gap between FF and FG in Munster.

    Going by that I'd say that overall you could roughly pull FG back up to 23-24% and pull FF down to 29-30% in this poll but the Ind-Other vote looks way too low as well and SF are riding a little high in this poll.

    Just another toilet roll quality opinion poll.

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    Default Re: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Quite simply it's likely to be a dodgy poll because there are too many out of the ordinary swings in it.
    B&A also "detected" a Burton bounce when there was no such thing. The Labour figure might be very iffy. FG is definitely at risk of becoming Labourised after the next GE. It had an opportunity to go for a majority government in 2011 but hadn't the guts or the intellect to do it. Then it had useless gobsh!tes like Brian Hayes whining about how FG needed FF. If FG had a real leader rather than a village idiot school teacher on an extended career break, it would have destroyed FF as its primary opposition for at least the next thirty years. But instead FF regrouped, reorganised and ended up being the puppetmaster to an ego-driven collection of wannabe FG leaders and a few independents.

    It's very unlikely that the Inds declined from 15% to 8% in a month, just like the same company had them making similar huge falls and rise in the 2 previous polls.
    The problem with Independents and small parties is that their support tends to be isolated rather than widespread. It is going to have a boom and bust trend for most small sample polls.


    There's a very large anomaly in the Munster support levels in the data sheets for this poll on the B&A website.

    In Munster when undecideds are removed it's showing FF 48%, FG 15%, SF 17%, Labour 5%, Ind-Others 15%.

    That's then adjusted to FF 44%, FG 17%, SF 17%, Labour 7%, Ind-Others 16%.

    It's fairly unlikely that there's actually a 27% gap between FF and FG in Munster.
    Perhaps. But FG is definitely in trouble and should have dumped Kenny when it had the chance. It is now in a King Lear situation where the village idiot is trying to annoint his successor and buy off contenders. The McCabe fiasco is likely to exacerbate problems for FG and it would not be unthinkable to see something like the shifts above being replicated in other polls. The undecideds are the main problem with this poll and what may be happening is a shift of the remnant of the floating vote that gave FG such a boost in 2011.

    Regards...jmcc

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    Default Re: 12/02/17 [email protected]_ie #poll FF 32 +3 FG 21 -2 SF 19 +2

    I don't think FG could wipe out FF for a wet weekend, as they simply don't have the support in the country for policies of mass homelessness, and carve up of assets to hand over to US funds.

    They got a bit of a bounce from reduced unemployment until people realised they couldn't live on the wages.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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