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Thread: France - 2017 presidential election

  1. #91
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    I know it is not the most likely scenario, but a Melenchon vs Le Pen runoff would be truly major.


    Among other things, it would put lot of fake liberals and "centrists" on the spot. They would probably either not vote at all or vote Le pen.

  2. #92
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Quote Originally Posted by Richardbouvet View Post
    I know it is not the most likely scenario, but a Melenchon vs Le Pen runoff would be truly major.

    Among other things, it would put lot of fake liberals and "centrists" on the spot. They would probably either not vote at all or vote Le pen.
    Don't you think that, whatever happens, the second tour will a vote agin LeP, regardless of the opponent?

    The French electorate is, IMO, full of fake something or others. They were activists in their youth, but....

    If Melonchon makes it, and he outvotes herself in the second tout, the parliamentary vote in the Autumn will be fascinating, the Left won't know where to turn....I'd say the prospect of power will soften their coughs.

  3. #93
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Very strange


    A MONUMENTAL computer blunder could cost Marine Le Pen the French general election as 500,000 citizens living outside of France have the chance to vote twice.

    French authorities confirmed they would not be investigating the potential electoral fraud until AFTER the election, when retrospective prosecution may take place.





    http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/...mmanuel-Macron
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  4. #94
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    latest polls

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  5. #95
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Looks like Hamon is losing a bit of support to Melenchon there.

    He has a chance.

    Would be the real Corbyn equivalent.

  6. #96
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Tight, wonder what the 23% in the "FFS" 4th column will be doing, voting, spoiling or nothing? Depends on the weather forecast?

    Just saw a whimper from Hollande -

    "On parle de quoi dans cette campagne ?" poursuit François Hollande. "Des affaires, des mises en examen, des pseudo-cabinets noirs, on fait des spectacles, des shows sur des places publiques (...) Où sont les comparaisons utiles ? Mon rôle, c'est de dire les risques que l'on peut prendre."

    The gist, the campaign is about scandals, pr and bling, no policies. He speaks of the risks, he didn't do anything to avoid them.

  7. #97
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/16/w...&nlid=60516485

    NYT seems to think Melonchon is causing a shuffle of the pack. NYT is usually smart enough not to be taken in, next Sunday could be very interesting. Bets? Melonchon v Macron second tour? Anything would be better than whoever v LeP?

  8. #98
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Macron looks good...

  9. #99
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    As I said earlier, turnout will decide. Weather forecast is good, so, that could mean low turnout, most people I have spoken to are pissed off and will either not bother or spoil. OTOH, the enthusiasts will turn out, so LeP will benefit, she will probably top the first round.

    If she does it is likely that the second round will have bigger turnout to block her, BUT, turnout could matter more here, LeP supporters will turn out, hopefully, the blockers feel motivated.

    Bizarrly, the UK GE decision could mean more anti-LeP turnout, the French would not want to be seen to be like them.... anti EU....!!

  10. #100
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Yesterday's Le Monde (not known for it's support for the 'middle left' usually )

    Short version; if his predicted support turns out, he has a good chance to make 2nd round, where he would be a very likely winner over LePen:
    'Mélenchon, the springs of a spectacular breakthrough
    With now 19% of the voting intentions, according to the Cevipof survey, the candidate of France insoumise is the big beneficiary of the end of the presidential campaign. ...

    It is among the young people under the age of 35 that the candidate of France insoumise progresses most strongly (23%, + 11 points), hurrying Mr. Macron (24%) and Mrs. Le Pen (26%), and Is now leading the student electorate (28%). In addition, he now leads Marine Le Pen among the most modest voters (1,250 euros in monthly net household income): 27%, up 11 points, are ready to vote for him, against 26% for the candidate Of the FN.
    After his successful performances during the two televised debates of March 20 and April 4, Mr. Mélenchon now enjoys the most flattering image of all the candidates. His "love rating" (likes: not at all, little, moderately, fairly or much on a scale of 0 to 10) is the strongest: 25%, compared with 24% in Emmanuel Macron, 23% in Marine Le Pen , 17% in Benoît Hamon and 16% in François Fillon. In fact, its image is, on several points, better than that of other candidates: in particular, 39% of respondents feel that it really wants to change things and 30% that it understands well the problems of "people like ] ".
    Jean-Luc Mélenchon is in the second round of voting, compared with 63% for Le Pen, 60% for Mr Macron and 30% for M Fillon.
    http://www.lemonde.fr/election-presi...8_4854003.html

    Nothing is certain (tomorrow is the last day allowed for the publication of opinion polls it says) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017

    I am now worrying about the possibility of Melenchon's 'La France Insoumise' sinking in a SYRIZA manner esp as it seems too much his personal machine. They will need to be very clever and with it to prevail . The French branch of Diem25 are lacking in such confidence for one https://diem25.org/diem25-an-example...acy-in-action/ . Some of the indirect supporters like the Independent Left coalition Ensemble seem intelligent https://www.ensemble-fdg.org/ http://www.regards.fr/ Sunday may be exciting though, past that I just don't know
    Last edited by GregTimo; 20-04-2017 at 12:14 PM.

  11. #101
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    This a.m. I heard a risk assessor summarise the the Paris shooting could turn LeP into first round winner but only Fillon as her opponent in second round could assure a non LeP win.

    Scary, either a LeP win or a Fillon win!! Ouch

  12. #102
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    This a.m. I heard a risk assessor summarise the the Paris shooting could turn LeP into first round winner but only Fillon as her opponent in second round could assure a non LeP win.

    Scary, either a LeP win or a Fillon win!! Ouch
    It cant be good, on the positive side the swedish attack only increased the populist/populised? Extreme right 'Sweden Democrats' by a max of 2% (they dropped in one poll) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2018
    but if that mobilises people worried about terrorism and crime in France more and considering Melenchon's support is like flaky etc
    It's too late for anything but telephone polls I'd say, this lot doing daily ones which are eccentric (both Fillon and Melencon support is higher than the mainstream , they apparently ask about values to weigh the results) https://www.facebook.com/FILTERIS/

    All we can do is sign petitions like this for now https://secure.avaaz.org/fr/petition...e_Pen//?launch
    or this http://petitions.moveon.org/sign/fra...se-dont-repeat
    Last edited by GregTimo; 21-04-2017 at 09:48 AM.

  13. #103
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    FRENCH PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION — DRAMA AND DIVISION UNTIL THE END: A campaign conducted under a state of emergency enters its last day overshadowed by what French authorities believe was the terrorism-motivated murder of a French police officer last night on Paris’ iconic Champs Elysées boulevard.
    It is not clear what impact the killing will have on the election, which is subject to a media blackout from midnight tonight. The shooting will certainly bring an extra level of tension to a campaign that has torn France between four leading candidates, with tens of millions who either won’t vote or can’t make up their minds.



    How the terror attack sent a quake through the last days of the French presidential campaign and disrupted the candidates’ televised interviews Thursday night, by Pierre Briançon.



    DON’T RELY ON NATIONAL POLLS FOR THIS ELECTION: Around half of French adults are either planning not to vote or haven’t decided who to vote for. That’s a wake-up call for anyone relying on dozens of eerily similar opinion polls to tell them what will happen Sunday.



    Literally ‘no one’ is in first place: More people are planning not to vote than are planning to vote for any particular candidate.
    Mathematically, no one is in first place: All four candidates are polling within each poll’s margin of error. That means they are statistically tied. They are also all polling within the historic French polling error rate (1969 to present) according to FiveThirtyEight, a polling journalism site and podcast.



    French polls also suppress undecided voters from results: Not only that, but as with non-voters, the undecideds are a bigger group than the committed voters any individual candidate has secured.



    Regional polling insights: Latest polls by region show big differences in support. Far-right candidate Marine Le Pen, for example, hits 32 percent in Provence-Alpes-Côtes and bottoms out at 14 percent in Brittany.



    WHAT WOULD SUIT THE EU? Emmanuel Macron is the president the EU bubble would prefer to deal with, though François Fillon could offer the best chance to keep the National Front away from the Elysee — EU officials’ ultimate goal. Both far left Jean-Luc Mélenchon and far right Le Pen are considered disasters. More on the EU programs of the top four candidates from Quentin Ariès and Maïa de la Baume.



    HOW FRENCH MUSLIMS VOTE: The best research available suggests there are around 5 million French Muslims and 93 percent of those who voted in 2012 cast their ballot for Socialist candidate François Hollande. (There are no official figures because the French state does not collect race-related data.) With the 2017 Socialist candidate Benoît Hamon polling at just 8 percent overall, it’s clear that swathes of those who chose the Socialists in 2012 are looking elsewhere.
    French Muslims find themselves facing a dilemma. “Traditionally loyal to the political left, partly for its track record of championing social equality, this year’s campaign has offered up no viable candidate from the mainstream,” write Claire Sergent and Katy Lee. “This means France’s Muslim population has had to wade through the campaign promises of a jumble of loose-cannon candidates in an increasingly polarized debate in which they have become prime targets themselves.”



    Celebrity power games: While Pamela Anderson, of Baywatch fame and other notoriety, has endorsed Mélenchon, Emmanuel Macron’s press team didn’t seem worried. They happily pointed out their man had a phone conversation with former U.S. President Barack Obama.



    HOW TO WATCH THE FRENCH ELECTION LIKE A PRO: Quentin Ariès has this handy guide to keeping on top of all the action as voters pick a president. Here’s a rundown …
    Today: Candidates were planning to zig-zag the country and end with final rallies in the evening, though the Paris police shooting will almost certainly temper those plans. Check out a handy candidate experience and proposals summary, like this one from AFP.



    Saturday: Candidates are now under a media ban. No polls, no statements. Voting starts in French overseas territories in the Pacific region, such as in New Caledonia.



    Sunday: Voting starts at 8 a.m. Turnout statistics will be released at noon and 5 p.m. Voting closes between 7 p.m. and 8 p.m. depending on location. The French media embargo ends at 8 p.m., though you can expect media outlets in Switzerland and Belgium to report before then. By 10 p.m. elections results will arrive from everywhere, likely generating a definitive result. They will be published on the French Interior Ministry website, searchable by region, city and district.



    Results to watch for …
    South: Right-wing battle expected in Provence-Alpes-Côtes d’Azur.
    In the North, it is Le Pen versus the left.
    Angers, a city in the North West, is considered a bellwether for all candidates.
    Brittany: Socialist stronghold that will tell us whether Macron can break through in rural areas.
    Grenoble: Left wing face-off that will tell us if Mélenchon can break through.



    POLITICO’s election night line-up: Pierre Briançon, Nicholas Vinocur, Maïa de la Baume and Quentin Ariès will be in the top four candidates’ headquarters on Sunday night. Click on their names to follow them on Twitter. This awesome foursome will be backed by a Brussels live blog team, including Playbook. We aim to run the definitive English-language French election live blog.



    FRENCH ELECTION READS …


    Macron’s plan to win … over Germany. The favorite is boldly backing the EU and making friends in Berlin, write Nicholas Vinocur and Florian Eder. “Amid rampant Euroskepticism and some strong anti-German feelings at home, Macron’s outreach effort — he visited Berlin twice this year, more than any other candidate — was not an obvious political choice … Macron’s camp argues that his efforts to woo friends in Berlin and Brussels was ‘good populism.’”


    Mélenchon and Le Pen are winning the social media war, as Trump and Leave campaigns did: This study by the Delors Institute Berlin shows the far left and far right candidates have deep and successful histories using social media. You can check the most searched for candidates on Google here.



    How Le Pen played the media: “She couldn’t have done it without the press,” the Guardian says.



    The moments that made Marine Le Pen: Come for the analysis, stay for a photo of a young Marine in a blue ball gown. Bloomberg.



    Life under the National Front: In Hénin-Beaumont, it’s a reality. Deutsche Welle.



    Post-Paris attacks France: Fake victims have been seeking media attention, reports Le Monde.



    Franco-German alliance: French website Contexte.com and German Die Zeit have teamed up to cover the French and German elections.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  14. #104
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    AM in-box ... Axios' Steve LeVine, a longtime foreign correspondent for the big papers, sees a "better than 50-50 chance" LePen goes all the way, based partly on the "rule of threes" following the upset victories for Trump and Brexit. Steve emails me:



    • A wild card: "The first round is a tight race among four candidates, and one of them — Jean-Luc Mélenchon — is every bit [the firebrand] as Le Pen, only from the far left. It's conceivable that the second round will pit [them] against one another. Like Le Pen, Mélenchon threatens to abandon the euro — which would likely lead to a collapse of the unifying monetary union. In addition, Mélenchon vows to quit NATO, the IMF and the World Trade Organization."
    • The takeaway: "These positions are why the French election ultimately is more important to the U.S. than Brexit."
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  15. #105
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    final polls

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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