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Thread: France - 2017 presidential election

  1. #31
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    David McWilliams: Ireland's financial destiny is in the hands of angry French voters - this is what we must do if the euro breaks up

    http://m.independent.ie/opinion/colu...-35441786.html
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  2. #32
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    David McWilliams: Ireland's financial destiny is in the hands of angry French voters - this is what we must do if the euro breaks up

    http://m.independent.ie/opinion/colu...-35441786.html
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  3. #33
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Why not 100%?


    French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen wants to introduce a ten percent tax on work contracts for foreigners; according to her adviser Florian Philippot. The tax will apply to non-nationals, including those from other European Union countries.
    "Alternatively, he (an employer) can hire a French national and avoid having to pay the tax," Philippot told RTL radio on Friday.



    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.rt....68258b45e5/amp
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  4. #34
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    For those with some French and/or time to google translate the Independent Left within the mostly defunct Left Front has interesting viewpoints (such as differences on Melenchon/critically supportive, critiques of the new PS candidate Hamon's near impossible task, etc). How they may swing on the likely critical neccesity to tactically vote Hamon if they want a leftish candidate in the 2nd round I don't know. I can't see Melenchon passing Hamon barring some scandal , Melenchon is too disliked judging by grumblings and satire . It's likely too late , the polls now put the (possibly worse than?) Blairite independent and former Holland minister Macron as the leading challenger to Le Pen right now but his bubble may burst ?

    https://www.ensemble-fdg.org/
    Journal associated with them http://www.regards.fr/

    Wiki as good a source as any on polls these days I find
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017
    More in french http://fr.politique.wikia.com/wiki/%...A7aise_de_2017

  5. #35
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    For those with some French and/or time to google translate the Independent Left within the mostly defunct Left Front has interesting viewpoints (such as differences on Melenchon/critically supportive, critiques of the new PS candidate Hamon's near impossible task, etc). How they may swing on the likely critical neccesity to tactically vote Hamon if they want a leftish candidate in the 2nd round I don't know. I can't see Melenchon passing Hamon barring some scandal , Melenchon is too disliked judging by grumblings and satire . It's likely too late , the polls now put the (possibly worse than?) Blairite independent and former Holland minister Macron as the leading challenger to Le Pen right now but his bubble may burst ?

    https://www.ensemble-fdg.org/
    Journal associated with them http://www.regards.fr/

    Wiki as good a source as any on polls these days I find
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...election,_2017
    More in french http://fr.politique.wikia.com/wiki/%...A7aise_de_2017
    Pretty safe analysis. Too little and much too late for the Left. Hollande hesitation held everything up. Second round will be Ms LeP v Macron, unless another scandal surfaces. Result? Macron presidency, followed by Parliamentary elections in the Autumn, probably leading to several years of "co-habitation" i.e. neutralisation, no big decisions.

  6. #36
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Shades of Corbyn's trouble with Blairism (and Hamon is likely less hard left than Corbyn, more of a Michael Foot/Jospin maybe?). The article talks of 40 Socialist party parliamentarians siding with the (French equiv) Blairite Independent Macron (said to be media darling who is now running closest to LePen) and 20 fence sitters . It is likely much more as Hamon does not have a majority among parliamentarians though likely more than Corbyn. http://www.liberation.fr/elections-p...-hamon_1548768

    Piece from the Independent Ensemble (within Left Front) aligned journal with speaks of Hamons impossible task (maybe a rationale for them supporting Melenchon who is even less likely to make it or are they hinting at tactically supporting Hamon? ) It seems only lightly satirical (the journal is quite so I think) so I think the writer sympathises with Hamon ? http://www.regards.fr/mauvais-esprit...ulets-du-bilan

    Personally I hope Hamon scrapes it to make 2nd round, but the numbers are not looking good yet . I think both he and Melechon are in the putting up the best possible show in a game they both know they are unlikely to make it to the final. A lot can happen in 10 weeks though

  7. #37
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    If it does comes down to Macron and Le Pen I can see large sections of the working class voting racist(with a large dash of leftish populism thrown in) ahead of another neoliberal intent on crushing them.
    The bookmakers have nothing between them at the moment.
    Do the right thing.

  8. #38
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Quote Originally Posted by Frankie Lee View Post
    If it does comes down to Macron and Le Pen I can see large sections of the working class voting racist(with a large dash of leftish populism thrown in) ahead of another neoliberal intent on crushing them.
    The bookmakers have nothing between them at the moment.
    I agree but to be more precise, possibly larger sections because the Front national won large areas of the depressed de-industrialised North in the local elections already . Though opinion polls show Macron winning the 2nd round with 60% +, the polls may be underestimating Le Pen .

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French...lections,_2015

    To be fair to Melenchon he has been addressing the discontent by making nationalistic rhetoric, though I think he has been going too long and pissed off many (activists) due to his alleged authoritarian style . He is correct in some of his strategy IMO in so far as he has correctly seen that much of Le Pens support is from people who used to vote left. Myself I am aspiring internationalist but in these times hectoring people on principles they dont relate to is not wise. On the other hand , I don't know quite what to make of him , in his seeming naivety about Putin he has gone too far , so I prefer someone else(but that's another argument almost). Anyhow with 3 main factors, the economic pressure on France to conform to neo-liberalsm, the Socialist Party in power having pursued a Blairite strategy , and the dropping out of the (real) far left from reality (following the failure of the NPA's own sort of populist strategy) all the left is damaged for now. Neither Melenchon or his temporary Communist backers are 'far left' nor is Hamon , (as the usual clueless to disingenious mainstream media say to damage them) , but the middle left they all represent is the way to go if they can unite, as it is here IMO

  9. #39
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    The 60/40 ratio for whoever v LeP would be my read. Fillon soldiering on, but there have been reports of Republican supporters withdrawing from the campaign.
    The real issue may be what transpires after Parliamentary elections later in the year. Whoever is Pres has to live with that.

  10. #40
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Left media is taking an inititative (yipee , if only we had a proper left media here . Note Liberation went into a sort of Guardian state since it was bought out, but regards is the journal I mentioned before)

    http://www.regards.fr/web/article/a-...-entendez-nous

    Though it is a proposal for debate only just at moment it caused some panic in business media apparently (who have 'jumped the gun' I think)
    https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/a...nch-presidency

  11. #41
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    The CIA took an interest in the last French election

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  12. #42
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    The CIA took an interest in the last French election

    Well they have an interest in just about everything that might anyway effect the US I'd presume. And an urge to make themselves look useful in an age when even the US military has been cut due to the Tax evasion of corporations and all that. Then there's competing intelligence agencies and factions and so on . I'd hazard they are still very well funded but not all knowing .

  13. #43
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    Well they have an interest in just about everything that might anyway effect the US I'd presume. And an urge to make themselves look useful in an age when even the US military has been cut due to the Tax evasion of corporations and all that. Then there's competing intelligence agencies and factions and so on . I'd hazard they are still very well funded but not all knowing .
    Plus, the US doesn't understand the word socialist, rhymes with Communist

  14. #44
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    These odd pollsters are claiming their methodology is more accurate and are consistently giving the populist left candidate Melenchon a big boost at the expense of the leftish Socialist party candidate Hamon . It's a Canadian company , make your own speculations. But I figure this will encoarage Melenchon not to pull out in favour of Hamon . They got the Socialist Party primary result way wrong by the way predicting a victory for the Blairite Valls . Exciting for Melenchon fans but fishy http://www.entreprendre.fr/melenchon-sondage
    https://www.facebook.com/FILTERIS/?fref=nf

    Quite a lot of ultra left trolling?/negativty to the Regards published article in the comments therin. The participation of Liberation is frowned upon as the former left journalists co-op venture is allegedly owned by a billionare now even by some who want a joint candidate. However Regards and Ensemble (the Left Front sub coalition to whom some writers belong) do seem to have lively debate with heaps of irony to boot . In the Liberation version maybe not surprisingly it is Macron fans doing the 'trolling' by looks . My favorite comment :
    'De toutes ces gauches, diverses, antinomiques, peut-on espérer voir émerger une gauche réunifiée, porteuse d'espoir ? Personnellement, j'en doute fort, mais, après tout, pourquoi ne pas essayer de faire en sorte que ce trio agisse " comme un seul homme " ... Finalement, cela ressemble fort à un combat de la dernière chance ! '
    (Of all these diverse and opposing lefts, can we hope to see the emergence of a reunited Left, bringing hope? Personally, I doubt it, but after all, why not try to make this trio act " Like a single man "... Finally, it looks like a fight of the last chance!)
    Last edited by GregTimo; 19-02-2017 at 02:05 PM.

  15. #45
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    Default Re: France - 2017 presidential election

    Latest I see this morning is a suggestion that Hamon says "no (further) discussions with Melonchon....

    Fallings out amongst....Hard to know who is who.

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