France - 2017 presidential election

[DCon]

Looks to be change afoot based on the below poll

Main question seems to be; Le Pen or not Le Pen

France, Odoxa poll

Fillon (LR-EPP) 32%
Le Pen (FN-ENF) 22%
Macron (EM-NI) 13%
Mélenchon (FG-LEFT) 12%
Hollande (PS-S&D) 8%

https://mobile.twitter.com/EuropeEle...94150274691073

http://www.politico.eu/article/franc...ative-primary/


https://www.yahoo.com/news/socialist...000808265.html

[DCon]

Hollande not running

As Bloomberg reports,

French President Francois Hollande said he won’t run for re-election next year, stunning the country and potentially opening the way for Prime Minister Manuel Valls to run in his place.

Speaking in a televised address, Hollande acknowledged some mistakes, defended his record, and said he was putting the country’s needs ahead of his personal ambition.

He warned against the danger of protectionism and France turning in on itself.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...residency-2017

[C. Flower]

Hollande not running





http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-1...residency-2017

Ahhh ! The 'Socialist' PM who calls the poor the "Sans dents" (toothless).

[barrym]

Ahhh ! The 'Socialist' PM who calls the poor the "Sans dents" (toothless).

Don't worry, Valls is running. As they say, a week is a long time in politics.

Only certainty, the death throes of French socialism, same as UK. god help us.

Latest polls show Ms Le Pen is not going to win, OMG, that means Fillon..... duck now.

[DCon]

[TotalMayhem]

Anti-system candidate? ^^

French presidential candidate François Fillon is under pressure to explain the role of his British wife in his political operation after a newspaper alleged that she had been paid about €500,000 in eight years out of parliamentary funds.

The Guardian

[Richardbouvet]

I am disgusted at how little media attantion was given to the surprise PS primary victory of Benoit Hamon compared to the surprise rightist primary victory of Francois Fillon.

The media have written the PS out of the script for the coming presidential election, but with a candidate like Hamon, they may not disappear so easily.

[TotalMayhem]

"Disgusting" it may be, a surprise it is not. The PS is dead in the water. They will bow out after the 1st round and endorse Fillon for the 2nd round. Business as usual for the Socialists in France, n'est–ce pas?

Their only President in the last 22 years made a right old mess in his one-term tenure, why bother with a bunch of losers?

[jmcc]

Anti-system candidate? ^^



The Guardian

Sounds like he'd be right at home in the Irish "Labour" party.

Regards...jmcc

[Apjp]

http://www.france24.com/en/20170124-...anders-podemos

More on Hamon.

If Fillon falls prey to this corruption investigation, we could have a Hamon-Le Pen run-off.

[barrym]

See my post in the Trump presidency thread. Is France heading the same way? I still hope they will reject the FN, but.... is the alternative Fillon? Rock and hard place stuff. Perhaps the Fillon "scandal" will have some effect? But what effect?

My cynical view of modern politics is that it is the result of a sense of "don't care" in general. The voters, i.e. those who are either old or settled are satisfied, they have enough to eat, several holiday breaks and football, they don't care who gets elected, as long as it doesn't alter their status quo.

[Shaadi]

See my post in the Trump presidency thread. Is France heading the same way? I still hope they will reject the FN, but.... is the alternative Fillon? Rock and hard place stuff. Perhaps the Fillon "scandal" will have some effect? But what effect?

My cynical view of modern politics is that it is the result of a sense of "don't care" in general. The voters, i.e. those who are either old or settled are satisfied, they have enough to eat, several holiday breaks and football, they don't care who gets elected, as long as it doesn't alter their status quo.

Given the way Trump has hit the ground running there may well be a Trump effect where populist Right Wingers get elected elsewhere in the belief that they alone will get the finger out and sort out immigration worries etc.

The popularity of the anti-immigration line taken by the UK Govt since the Brexit vote is not really discussed in terms of an anti-immigration vote. The surge of support for the Tories being put down to Corbyn's unelectability.

If you analyse why the traditional social-democrats are being shut out, it's due to their desire to maintain a status quo which has delivered only minimal tinkering around the edges while Western Societies are being rocked by ever increasing uncertainty about their own Futures.

Trump may be crass, but he's delivering what he promised. That's a very potent boost to the Right elsewhere.

[TotalMayhem]

I still hope they will reject the FN

Rest assured.

De Gaulle was no fool, when he proclaimed the Fifth Republic he had the game beautifully rigged. Even the "Socialists" only managed twice to penetrate the system (Nobody can call Hollande a socialist with a straight face and Mitterand, well, he started his political career with the fascist Croix de Feu). An election system designed to keep the Commies out has proven to be equally effective against the ultranationalists.

[barrym]

Not so sure, De G certainly fiddled things, but since then a generation has grown up and some of them vote. Hollande has certainly messed up the so-called socialists. Thought he would be a blairite.... now even his ex pm cannot get on the slate.

The right wing were unelectable with daddy Le P but the young one is moving them nearer Trump. The imponderable is the burr effect, the % of French born Arabs, etc., In some areas, especially the South they moved the white voters right, maybe now that might widen due to immigrants.

Meanwhile Fillon is fighting back, and the French are kind of immune to politico scandals.

[Apjp]

Nah corruption can still matter, look how it has damaged Sarkozy in the primaries.

They like a good sex scandal alright, but corruption never goes away.