View Poll Results: What will be the make up of the next govt?

Voters
495. You may not vote on this poll
  • FG/Lab

    37 7.47%
  • FF/FG

    37 7.47%
  • SF/Ind/

    35 7.07%
  • FG Minority

    35 7.07%
  • FG/Lab/Soc Democrats

    35 7.07%
  • FG/FF/Soc Democrats

    35 7.07%
  • FG/Lab/Renua

    35 7.07%
  • FG Majority

    35 7.07%
  • FF Majority

    35 7.07%
  • FF/Lab

    35 7.07%
  • SF/Left/Ind

    35 7.07%
  • FG/Ind

    35 7.07%
  • FF/Lab/Others

    35 7.07%
  • Other

    36 7.27%
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Thread: What will be the make up of the next government?

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Kilmainham
    Posts
    4,897

    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Could we be in for Spanish or Portuguese style protracted negotiations, post election ??
    No........ we have to have a Taoiseach in place for St. Patrick's Day.... otherwise a bowl of shammrock will go to waste.
    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    I'm going to save my vote for the election, and not vote on this poll.
    Voting in this poll is not about your electoral choice............ it's about your guess as to what is going to be the result. It's not about what you'd like to happen but a test of your ability to examine the data and make an unemotional calculation of the possible result.
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies.”

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Oct 2011
    Posts
    3,696

    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    PS: You forgot to put a FF/SF/Others option. This is quite possible from a compatibility point of view. Adams has clearly stated that they won't go into govt as a minority but would go in if they had others alongside them that agreed with them more than the supposedly senior partner. So a 40 FF, 33 SF and Others 8+ would be acceptable to SF.

    FF have to be come into the reckoning without FG, as there will in effect be another wing of FF elected in the FF gene pool Inds who get away without being tagged as FFers.

    Enda for Taoiseach isn't a slam dunk it's just the most probable outcome

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    1,910

    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Sorry, but do I see 5 people in the above poll predicting an FF majority government?

    Are FF even running enough candidates to get that?

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    hiding inside Brendan Gleesons underwear drawer...
    Posts
    13,555

    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    PS: You forgot to put a FF/SF/Others option. This is quite possible from a compatibility point of view. Adams has clearly stated that they won't go into govt as a minority but would go in if they had others alongside them that agreed with them more than the supposedly senior partner. So a 40 FF, 33 SF and Others 8+ would be acceptable to SF.

    FF have to be come into the reckoning without FG, as there will in effect be another wing of FF elected in the FF gene pool Inds who get away without being tagged as FFers.

    Enda for Taoiseach isn't a slam dunk it's just the most probable outcome
    FF and SF! Are we being hasty here! The sole reason I didnt add that option was Martin and Adams despise one and other!

    Quote Originally Posted by Richardbouvet View Post
    Sorry, but do I see 5 people in the above poll predicting an FF majority government?

    Are FF even running enough candidates to get that?
    Predicted to get about 19? Wont be enough to be of any significance unless they shack up with FG

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The odds are on an FF/FG coalition. This would clearly be historic - but also a toxic government for most o fthe population and I think unlikely to last, as the balance would be likely to be too even, and FF would very likely walk early from government (not so Green as the Greens).

    I've been struck looking across constituencies at the quality of some of the small party and non party candidates. A lot of them are well known and have some kind of a decent public track record. I think this makes things impossible to predict. Could we be in for Spanish or Portuguese style protracted negotiations, post election ??
    I'm going to save my vote for the election, and not vote on this poll.
    Inds are on 13% roughly, like Podemos not entirely unreasonable to expect them to be part of a govt involving protracted negotiations

    Quote Originally Posted by riposte View Post
    in a 4 seater Constituency .... the quota is arrived at by dividing the valid poll by 5 and adding 1 vote. This means that a candidate is elected when he/she exceeds the quota .. that is .....all their votes Ist preferences and transfers from other candidates (who have been illiminated)are added together. A candidate can be elected without reaching the quota (usually for the last seat)..... but only when they have the highest number of votes remaining and all the other unsuccessful candidates have been illiminated.

    Getting the quota.....

    In a 5 seater divide by 6 and add 1 vote
    In a 4 seater divide by 5 and add 1 vote
    In a 3 seater divide by 4 and add 1 vote
    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    Akturly the formula for the quota to be elected is 100 / (#seats + 1) so that works out as

    25% in a three-seater
    20% in a four-seater
    16.66% in a five-seater

    I'm always a little bit surprised just how badly the vast majority of people understand PR-STV. I remember a mad thread on the darkside during GE 2011 where it was obvious 95% of the posters there - most of them party hacks FFS - didn't have a bloody clue how the electoral system or the count process actually worked.

    One striking thing watching this campaign from afar is just how truly woefully incompetent, inept, inarticulate, and let's face it just plain ignorant and stupid so many of the FF/FG/L establishment candidates are. The quality really is appallingly low. I suppose they've been able to rely for generations now on mindless tribal loyalty and geographically small fiefdoms, where the local yokels will troop down and vote for the Party Man from the nearest village like their fathers and his father before him etc. There's been no incentive to actually be competent, in fact most of the electorate are downright suspicious of some fancy-dan with his high-falutin' book-larning

    If the polls are accurate, and there isn't a big swing over the next couple of weeks, then there's no getting away from the necessity for some sort of FG/FF arrangement. No other plausible combination will have the numbers. If the polls are all wrong however....and there are grounds for suspecting deeply flawed methodologies...we could be in for a surprise.

    I doubt it though, the innate fearful conservatism of those conditioned by a lifetime of Holy Catholic Direland will win out in the end, again. Still probably two or three cycles away from Irish politicians feeling able to peek cautiously out from the fortified bunker of 1950s religious/conservative whackjobbery.

    OK I think I have it!
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

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