View Poll Results: What will be the make up of the next govt?

Voters
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  • FG/Lab

    37 7.47%
  • FF/FG

    37 7.47%
  • SF/Ind/

    35 7.07%
  • FG Minority

    35 7.07%
  • FG/Lab/Soc Democrats

    35 7.07%
  • FG/FF/Soc Democrats

    35 7.07%
  • FG/Lab/Renua

    35 7.07%
  • FG Majority

    35 7.07%
  • FF Majority

    35 7.07%
  • FF/Lab

    35 7.07%
  • SF/Left/Ind

    35 7.07%
  • FG/Ind

    35 7.07%
  • FF/Lab/Others

    35 7.07%
  • Other

    36 7.27%
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Thread: What will be the make up of the next government?

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  1. #1
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    Default What will be the make up of the next government?

    Will Lab/FG axis stay?

    Odds from Paddy PowerClick image for larger version. 

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    Last edited by fluffybiscuits; 15-02-2016 at 02:18 PM.
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

  2. #2
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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    I sort of hope it turns out to be FG/FF. That would open up our political system properly.

    If Labour goes back into government, they are finished as a serious left wing party (assuming they are not already). Their monomania about repealing the 8th is simply not enough.

    I would also hate to see a FG/Lab/SD government, but that is now clearly being seen as an option.

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by Richardbouvet View Post
    I sort of hope it turns out to be FG/FF. That would open up our political system properly.

    If Labour goes back into government, they are finished as a serious left wing party (assuming they are not already). Their monomania about repealing the 8th is simply not enough.

    I would also hate to see a FG/Lab/SD government, but that is now clearly being seen as an option.
    Labour was finished as a Left Wing party when it was taken over by the Stickies. There's little to differentiate it from the rest of the centrist parties now.

    Regards...jmcc

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcc View Post
    Labour was finished as a Left Wing party when it was taken over by the Stickies. There's little to differentiate it from the rest of the centrist parties now.

    Regards...jmcc

    I think you're being a bit unfair to the "Stickies". Most ex-DL TDs (McManus, the Lynches, Byrne, Gilmore...) were pretty run-of-the-mill Labour politicians and the only real exception is Pat Rabbitte, who was to the right of both the majority of DLers and Old Labourites. Also, Labour has arguably moved even further to the right since the accession of Burton (Old Labour) to the leadership after Gilmore (DL) was ousted.

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    I draw attention to my prediction of 16th Jan.........http://www.politicalworld.org/showth...550#post443550
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies.”

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by riposte View Post
    I draw attention to my prediction of 16th Jan.........http://www.politicalworld.org/showth...550#post443550
    What is the percentage that they need to obtain an over all majority?

    I understand proportional representation system but I cant work out how many seats it is!

    This morning on Morning Ireland they had a professor from Trinners on talking about the 'poll of polls'. He predicted FG to do not as well as the current polls suggest
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by fluffybiscuits View Post
    What is the percentage that they need to obtain an over all majority?

    I understand proportional representation system but I cant work out how many seats it is!

    This morning on Morning Ireland they had a professor from Trinners on talking about the 'poll of polls'. He predicted FG to do not as well as the current polls suggest

    Fluffy.......... tallymen. probably Shaadi.. will tell you it is all about percentages ....... but that is misleading. If it was all about percentages..... then a party with 1%, 2%, 3% or even 4% would never get any seats. Indeed the Social democrats and renua would get no seats if it was all about percentages. But Lucinda, Roisin Shorthall, Donnelly and Catherine Murphy will get seats....... because of their personal profile and personal vote. A candidate in a 5 seater must get 20% to get a seat (including transfers) It's reckoned that they must get 9% to 10% first preferences to stay in the race to pick up transfers....... but even this depends on the number of candidates running in their constitutency.
    Last edited by riposte; 15-02-2016 at 05:25 PM.
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies.”

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by riposte View Post
    Fluffy.......... tallymen. probably Shaadi.. will tell you it is all about percentages ....... but that is misleading. If it was all about percentages..... then a party with 1%, 2%, 3% or even 4% would never get any seats. Indeed the Social democrats and renua would get no seats if it was all about percentages. But Lucinda, Roisin Shorthall, Donnelly and Catherine Murphy will get seats....... because of their personal profile and personal vote. A candidate in a 5 seater must get 20% to get a seat (including transfers) It's reckoned that they must get 9% to 10% first preferences to stay in the race to pick up transfers....... and even this depends on the number of candidates running in their constitutency.
    20% min to get the seat, is that 20% first transfers?
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by fluffybiscuits View Post
    20% min to get the seat, is that 20% first transfers?
    in a 4 seater Constituency .... the quota is arrived at by dividing the valid poll by 5 and adding 1 vote. This means that a candidate is elected when he/she exceeds the quota .. that is .....all their votes Ist preferences and transfers from other candidates (who have been illiminated)are added together. A candidate can be elected without reaching the quota (usually for the last seat)..... but only when they have the highest number of votes remaining and all the other unsuccessful candidates have been illiminated.

    Getting the quota.....

    In a 5 seater divide by 6 and add 1 vote
    In a 4 seater divide by 5 and add 1 vote
    In a 3 seater divide by 4 and add 1 vote
    Last edited by riposte; 15-02-2016 at 09:45 PM.
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies.”

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by riposte View Post
    A candidate in a 5 seater must get 20% to get a seat (including transfers)
    Akturly the formula for the quota to be elected is 100 / (#seats + 1) so that works out as

    25% in a three-seater
    20% in a four-seater
    16.66% in a five-seater

    I'm always a little bit surprised just how badly the vast majority of people understand PR-STV. I remember a mad thread on the darkside during GE 2011 where it was obvious 95% of the posters there - most of them party hacks FFS - didn't have a bloody clue how the electoral system or the count process actually worked.

    One striking thing watching this campaign from afar is just how truly woefully incompetent, inept, inarticulate, and let's face it just plain ignorant and stupid so many of the FF/FG/L establishment candidates are. The quality really is appallingly low. I suppose they've been able to rely for generations now on mindless tribal loyalty and geographically small fiefdoms, where the local yokels will troop down and vote for the Party Man from the nearest village like their fathers and his father before him etc. There's been no incentive to actually be competent, in fact most of the electorate are downright suspicious of some fancy-dan with his high-falutin' book-larning

    If the polls are accurate, and there isn't a big swing over the next couple of weeks, then there's no getting away from the necessity for some sort of FG/FF arrangement. No other plausible combination will have the numbers. If the polls are all wrong however....and there are grounds for suspecting deeply flawed methodologies...we could be in for a surprise.

    I doubt it though, the innate fearful conservatism of those conditioned by a lifetime of Holy Catholic Direland will win out in the end, again. Still probably two or three cycles away from Irish politicians feeling able to peek cautiously out from the fortified bunker of 1950s religious/conservative whackjobbery.

  11. #11
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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    FGFF/LAB plus Renua (or Lucy alone if she is a party of 1)

    Assuming that gives enough votes
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    FGFF/LAB plus Renua (or Lucy alone if she is a party of 1)

    Assuming that gives enough votes
    Are you saying all four parties?

    Renua will roll over for a whiff of power...tickle their tummy and some scraps from the masters table
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    Quote Originally Posted by fluffybiscuits View Post
    Are you saying all four parties?

    Renua will roll over for a whiff of power...tickle their tummy and some scraps from the masters table
    It might take all 4 to make the numbers. Renua and Labour will be lucky to have s combined 10 seats to offer

    Doubt it will last a full term as there will not be enough Goodies to satisfy them all
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  14. #14
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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    There are 2 serious options. Number 1 is a direct FG/FF coalition, it's now most definitely on as the numbers and portents have aligned.

    Number 2 option is a minority FG Govt with qualified FF support from the opposition benches. That WAS the most likely option, but it's a 5/1 shot with the bookies for what should be an even money favourite, ergo FF heads have not decided to go for supporting a minority FG Govt and have instead plumped for FULL Coalition with FG where they'd have the spoils of office and where they'd roughly be 40/60 of the new Govt and ideologically and opportunistically in bed with their soul mates.

    I would say a FG/FF Coalition is now an odds on chance.


    The critical figure for a two party Coalition arrangement is 46%, that's the historical support level that FG/Lab combined have had to hit to make it as a 2 party Coalition.

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    Default Re: What will be the make up of the next government?

    The odds are on an FF/FG coalition. This would clearly be historic - but also a toxic government for most o fthe population and I think unlikely to last, as the balance would be likely to be too even, and FF would very likely walk early from government (not so Green as the Greens).

    I've been struck looking across constituencies at the quality of some of the small party and non party candidates. A lot of them are well known and have some kind of a decent public track record. I think this makes things impossible to predict. Could we be in for Spanish or Portuguese style protracted negotiations, post election ??
    I'm going to save my vote for the election, and not vote on this poll.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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