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Thread: Brexit.

  1. #1096
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Moody's just downgraded the UK

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  2. #1097
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  3. #1098
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Coincidently, Bloomberg had this today..........

    Balkan Lesson | The Irish border question is one of thorniest in the Brexit talks: how to avoid a hard international border carving up the island of Ireland. The answer may lie in the Balkans, where the EU has allowed for exceptions so that locals and small cargoes can travel freely across the bloc’s border.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  4. #1099
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Balkan solution? Could work, but.... what is the likely SF reaction to random checks? Suppose Slab Murphy or his pals are stopped?

    IMO, the idea that brexit is not implemented in NI is better, however, the reaction of the DUP is likely to be worse than SF.

    Ho-hum

  5. #1100
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    impossible seems fairly final

    A Revenue Commissioners report has declared that an open border between Northern Ireland and the Republic will be impossible from a customs perspective in the wake of Brexit.

    According to RTE News, who said they have seen the unpublished internal report, Ireland's customs infrastructure - and tens of thousands of companies who trade with the UK - will be severely impacted as Britain leaves the EU.

    https://amp.independent.ie/business/...-36206931.html
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  6. #1101
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    RTE says the Revenue were told to stop evaluating the effects, the EU would do it...., it s a UK problem.

    OTOH, the reports of the report is that it is old, the figures are out of date. A fishing expedition for more staff?

    It all depends on whether there will be any money to be collected, the fudge will make that unlikely.

    The EU summit end of next week will be the crunch, there will be the Member States who want to move on, some sort of "solution" to the "Irish question" may have to be agreed. Kicking can......

  7. #1102
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  8. #1103
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Bloomberg......

    The Irish border question has thrown an unexpected hurdle in the way of a Brexit breakthrough.

    A memo emerged late Thursday that showed the EU is pushing for the rules of the customs union and single market to endure in Northern Ireland after Brexit and for the U.K. to pledge there will be no border on the island after the divorce. Ireland backed the document, and called for “strong and tangible commitments” from the U.K.

    The demand is all but impossible for Prime Minister Theresa May to meet, unless the whole of the U.K. stays in the customs union and single market, which she has said it won’t. If Northern Ireland stays in the customs union then a border has to go up between Northern Ireland and mainland Britain. That’s unthinkable, and even more so at a time when the Conservative government is propped up by the pro-U.K. Democratic Unionist Party of Northern Ireland.

    For months officials have downplayed the Ireland issue, with the British arguing that border arrangements could only be sorted once the U.K.’s future relationship with the EU becomes clear. Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has been the most optimistic of EU leaders about the prospects for a swift Brexit deal.

    Yet the Irish have long been aware that because the border was given special status in the first phase of talks, Dublin essentially wielded a veto that it would lose once negotiations moved on to trade. The memo suggests the Irish government has decided to flex its muscles.
    Read more: What Ireland’s Border Means For the Post-Brexit World

    The memo, circulated on Wednesday and reported in the Telegraph late Thursday, got in the way of what appeared to be some carefully planned choreography from the U.K., which is preparing the ground for concessions it will need to make to the EU in the next few weeks. In a move designed to please euroskeptics, Brexit Secretary David Davis announced on Thursday the government would seek to enshrine in law the date and time of Britain’s exit.

    The move will discourage the growing wave of speculation about how Brexit could be reversed or delayed. Adding to such speculation on Friday was the architect of article 50, who said the whole process could still be undone.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  9. #1104
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Well, well, Varadkar, just in time for the Ard Fheis, wakes up. The crunch, this will bring on the fudge, or completely bollox up the whole brexit thing. May is faced with a Tory meltdown if there isn't a move on to trade discussion. First reaction, to assuage the DUP, is no internal border in the UK, so, how to square the polygon?

    Other commentary has it that Veradkar is heading off SF, interesting.

  10. #1105
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Paschal the rascal, is giving a speech on Brexit in DC tomorrow. No recording will be available so we'll be dependent on any future write up. Hope the IT will have someone present.


    The challenge of Brexit: A conversation with Irish Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe

    Monday, November 13, 2017, 2:00 to 3:00 p.m.



    https://www.brookings.edu/events/the...ntent=58300213
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  11. #1106
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    fearless Leo will make it all good


    Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said the Republic needs to be prepared for a situation where the British government is unable to negotiate a deal to quit the European Union.

    Mr Varadkar said he was optimistic a deal could yet be struck although he was “not afraid” of a situation where no agreement was reached between the UK and the EU.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...89116?mode=amp
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  12. #1107
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Things are going quite badly from an Irish point of view. Attitudes are hardening, a really Hard Brexit looms and the crap the EU and UK were spouting about keeping the Border down between NI and the ROI has been to my eyes just fluff that'll be blown out of the way by the Hard Brexit process.

    Either the Brits surrender or we're in for a destabilising period here in Ireland.

  13. #1108
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Things are going quite badly from an Irish point of view. Attitudes are hardening, a really Hard Brexit looms and the crap the EU and UK were spouting about keeping the Border down between NI and the ROI has been to my eyes just fluff that'll be blown out of the way by the Hard Brexit process.

    Either the Brits surrender or we're in for a destabilising period here in Ireland.
    There was never any possibility of a non border or a soft border. That is as you say only fluff.

    Sterling is dropping sharply due to inflation as well as to the obvious economic threats. A vicious cycle under way.

    And given this is Ireland's main trade partner, of course we are shackled to their fate.

    Far from EU countries rallying around brave little Ireland, Ireland's weakness is being exploited to put pressure on over Irish linked tax scandals.

    Interesting to note that Brexit was jockeyed for both by Russia and by elements in the US, both of whom would be happy to see what is left of the British lion well stuffed and mounted in a glass case, with teeth and claws pulled. And of course to see the EU as an economic and political bloc weakened.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  14. #1109
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    There was never any possibility of a non border or a soft border. That is as you say only fluff.

    Sterling is dropping sharply due to inflation as well as to the obvious economic threats. A vicious cycle under way.

    And given this is Ireland's main trade partner, of course we are shackled to their fate.

    Far from EU countries rallying around brave little Ireland, Ireland's weakness is being exploited to put pressure on over Irish linked tax scandals.

    Interesting to note that Brexit was jockeyed for both by Russia and by elements in the US, both of whom would be happy to see what is left of the British lion well stuffed and mounted in a glass case, with teeth and claws pulled. And of course to see the EU as an economic and political bloc weakened.
    which was absolutely scandalous...

    yes Brexit was jockeyed by Russia which makes sense since an unstable EU is favorable to Russia

    now you want to expound on the concept that the US jockeyed Brexit?

    what for? who benefits from that?

  15. #1110
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    This phase of the Brexit process is the only one where we have a veto. The problem is we have a poor record of standing up to be counted in EU confrontation. The outcome could be that the border can will be kicked down the road if the Brits offer more money on the divorce bill issue.

    Down the road we have no say, the negotiation will be handled by the Commission.

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