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Thread: Brexit.

  1. #841
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    OMG, under the deal agreed yesterday "geo blocking" of TV - limiting viewing by country, will be removed, FOR EU CITIZENS.....

    Is that is enough to stop Brexit in its tracks!! Brits on holiday in Spain, what will they do???

    WTF, how the f do you organise that??

    It's a nothing, the British will be in the same position as they were before the EU removed geo-blocking.

    What's going to happen to all the British ( 400,000 I think) who've moved permanently to Spain. Will they have to go home?

  2. #842
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    and they're off

    U.K. COMMONS PASSES BREXIT BILL BY 494 VOTES TO 122
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  3. #843
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    This is a falase dichotomy.

    We managed to have a relatively independent currency and monetary policy in the 1980's when the economy was in the toilet and our foreign policy was slightly less subservient then too.

    An Irish border or being a British satellite State are not the only options.

    Iceland manages relatively well, as do a number of relatively economically independent EU States.
    Brexit means a border. It is not a choice for Ireland if Ireland stays in the EU.

    We are already, economically, and in terms of the Common Travel Area, and energy supply, a British satellite state. Otherwise Brexit would not matter too much to Ireland.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  4. #844
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    Of course it does, but the Irish political establishment has not used that clout since Frank Aiken, our last Govt. Minister with any major international clout, retired from office in 1968 after signing an historic treaty known as the Nuclear non-proliferation treaty in Moscow.

    Basically since we joined the EEC in 1973 there has been no coherent independent foreign policy, only flashes of it here and there on things like The Belgrano or Reagan in the '80's, occasional border incidents with Britain where sovereignty was coherently asserted by the Irish Army and Gardai, or the Bosnian refugee initiative or Palestine(to an extent).

    Irish foreign policy is only asserted by the current elites where it costs them nothing and does not harm relations with America and Britain.

    Our economy was not destroyed in the 1960's by taking a different stance at the UN or internationally, yet the propaganda that being different would do this still influences about 55-60% of the public I would say.

    We have been a relatively independent State for about 95 years now, infinitely better than any form of British rule as a brief historical comparison with the North shows, but we seem to have elites who think foreign policy is expendable for a few jobs in their home constituencies.

    The Irish establishment was badly weakened in the 2014 and 2016 elections but they are still in control for the moment with about 60% of Dail seats.

    There's a good read on this link as regards what is involved in leaving the Euro. The process is typical of the modern world where everything is shrouded in voodoo law and voodoo economics all against the backdrop of effectively different rules for strong and weak players.

    https://mises.org/library/there-no-escape-euro

  5. #845
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    The historical precedents for leaving currency unions or else implementing some form of currency reform are usually done in a last ditch attempt to save an economy from total ruin.

    Greece and Cyprus considered something like this with Greece's climax point of capitulation in late 2015, and Cypriot posturing 1-2 years prior(2013 if memory serves, when the Cypriots had to cross an illegal border to withdraw Turkish Lira on the occupied part of their island, irony saving people from losing a great deal of the value of their savings, if not whole savings, to such an extent that they preferred lesser value Liras to allowing the ECB to control their euros-Cyprus also came relatively close to joining the Ruble I believe but was not prepared to hand all of its' natural resources to Russia in exchange).

    A bureaucratic EU terms of reference process matters little in that kind of context. In fact, it's pure nonsense.

    First we would need a plan for a multi-currency economy but with all domestic transactions in Punts and Northern Irish issued pounds(not international Sterling). Exports could be done in Sterling to Britain, euro to the eurozone, and punts to everyone else.

    Building up reserves such as Swiss Francs, Sterling, Dollar, Chinese Yen, in fact any reserves whatsoever from Norway, Denmark, Poland, Czech Republic, whatever, would be key to stabilising the currency's value in the medium-term.

    There is no mechanism for kicking us out of the EU in response and a short recession would be preferable to allowing the ECB to be able to strangle us during any future crisis to bail out the Franco-German cartels again.
    Last edited by Apjp; 09-02-2017 at 03:52 PM.

  6. #846
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    I know it's a little arrogant, but in fact, the more I read about the prevailing economic and currency orthodoxy and how EURO-philes justify it, the more I believe these people are completely clueless about economics and the whole thing is just a big political power grab that makes no economic sense, as Germany always tells the entire Eurozone they have to operate economic surpluses, while failing to understand the basic currency union economics of one big country's hugely bloated surplus naturally means most of the rest of us will have to pay for their profits(as the euro means they profit from us by reducing our surpluses, eliminating them in the case of the poorest Eurozone States, and then indebting us to pay for their products, not just in terms of govt. debt but in terms of taking over our economies).

    To quote a Marxist, from a 'bourgeois' point of viewm the euro is also the greatest swindle ever enacted by one country's elite over another's although such elites are usually placated for their servility.

  7. #847
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by pluralist View Post
    It isn't that difficult. Ever tried watching a recorded programme on the BBC iplayer? You won't be able to unless you're in the UK. Yes, there are ways around it using faked IP addresses and the like, but for most people it's not worth the hassle.
    My reaction was ironic, dozens of ways around it, VPN, etc.

    The irony is timing.....

  8. #848
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Parties may be very, very afraid of winning a general election just in time to negotiate over Brexit.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  9. #849
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Aw, come off it. What exactly do you think our input will be...?

  10. #850
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Today's IT has what looks like a pretty definitive piece on what the differences are between a Customs Union and a free trade area and a common market. Brexit, whatever way it jumps, will mean changes to the Customs Union. Unless the deal is "no change" highly unlikely, otherwise why brexit? then a border north of Dundalk is inevitable.

    Worth a read, U of Oxford prof.

    Back to my message in the heave thread, what is the strategy vis a vis Brexit? Does anybody have any idea?

  11. #851
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    Today's IT has what looks like a pretty definitive piece on what the differences are between a Customs Union and a free trade area and a common market. Brexit, whatever way it jumps, will mean changes to the Customs Union. Unless the deal is "no change" highly unlikely, otherwise why brexit? then a border north of Dundalk is inevitable.

    Worth a read, U of Oxford prof.

    Back to my message in the heave thread, what is the strategy vis a vis Brexit? Does anybody have any idea?
    Seems there is no strategy, other than pleading to be declared a "special case" and hoping that the people doing the negotiations will give a second thought to our situation

    Meanwhile the Border cuts through homes, farms, businesses etc etc
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  12. #852
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    Aw, come off it. What exactly do you think our input will be...?
    Roll over and cry ? A duvet day ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  13. #853
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    Today's IT has what looks like a pretty definitive piece on what the differences are between a Customs Union and a free trade area and a common market. Brexit, whatever way it jumps, will mean changes to the Customs Union. Unless the deal is "no change" highly unlikely, otherwise why brexit? then a border north of Dundalk is inevitable.

    Worth a read, U of Oxford prof.

    Back to my message in the heave thread, what is the strategy vis a vis Brexit? Does anybody have any idea?
    Yes. FGff still doesnt seem to get it. The island of Ireland has never had a Customs border of that kind dividing it - the terms of which are outside its control.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  14. #854
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    A Fillon presidency in France could save our bacon, literally. He is an unadulterated right winger. France won't leave the EU of course, but they'll be sympathetic to UK, play for low tarrif options.

  15. #855
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Good posts from apjp and Shaadi pointing out the implicit economic power grabs wrapped up in the EU treaties.

    French election looms and there is a real question over the survival of the euro due to a reaction against this by a large section of the population to Trumpism/le Penism.

    If we had a strategy it should be a series of Plans A, B, C etc, to cater for the following (and maybe other) scenarios.

    i) A Brexit pure and simple with the inevitable hard border across the island - first ever of this kind in the history of Ireland - and collapse of the GFA. Economic and political uproar in Ireland. EU not giving a *** and the US looking on it as an opportunity to get a leg in and stir trouble. UK getting jumpy and ready to send troops back in. Try and make a silk purse out of this lousy Sow's Ear - go for an ever closer union with the EU - if it survives.

    ii) leave the EU and have an ever closer union with the UK. No border in the island, hard border between us and EU. Political uproar.

    iii) End of the Euro: threat of break up of the EU - join or form an alternative trade block with other semi-aligned states.

    A sensible democracy would be scoping out all of the above and maybe some others.

    The melding together of the EU economies and population has gone a long way. Hard to see how this could be undone without wreckage of lives.

    I don't think apjp's 3 currency proposal would work. Most of us struggle with managing just the one.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 22-02-2017 at 08:52 AM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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