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Thread: Brexit.

  1. #2131
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Just putting it out there, that if the Tories can't deliver Brexit before the next UK GE then UKIP candidates will eat into the Tory vote across England. That would allow Labour pick up loads of Tory seats and could lead to something approaching a landslide Labour victory.

  2. #2132
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Will Farage take his Brexit party into U.K. politics if this were to happen?


    The former Ukip leader issued a stark warning to Theresa May’s party, saying his newly-formed Brexit Party is ready to contest all 73 seats allocated to the UK in the European Parliament should Britain be trapped in the EU for longer than a few weeks.
    https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...rty-parliament
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  3. #2133
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Just putting it out there, that if the Tories can't deliver Brexit before the next UK GE then UKIP candidates will eat into the Tory vote across England. That would allow Labour pick up loads of Tory seats and could lead to something approaching a landslide Labour victory.
    UKIP / The Brexit Party may win. There are Tory MPs who would jump ship to join them or to coalesce with them.

    Corbyn and the pro Brexit Right would be in it to win it, hard to see how the Tories would function in a General Election at all. It is worth looking at Israel, the US and Italy (amongst other States) to see how the old order in changing.

    Would there be a similar coalescence on the Left and in the Remainer centre ? Beyond me to know that. But they are nothing like as ready to go as is the Right, and have no clear alternative on offer.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  4. #2134
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    on we go


    The document, seen by POLITICO, states that the European Council will grant an extension of the Article 50 negotiating period to allow for "ratification of the Withdrawal Agreement." But on the ultimate end date for the extension it says, "Such an extension should last only as long as necessary and, in any event, no longer than [XX.XX.XXXX1 ]." The key date will be decided by leaders when they meet in Brussels Wednesday evening.



    https://www.politico.eu/article/leak...xit-extension/
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  5. #2135
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    UKIP / The Brexit Party may win. There are Tory MPs who would jump ship to join them or to coalesce with them.

    Corbyn and the pro Brexit Right would be in it to win it, hard to see how the Tories would function in a General Election at all. It is worth looking at Israel, the US and Italy (amongst other States) to see how the old order in changing.

    Would there be a similar coalescence on the Left and in the Remainer centre ? Beyond me to know that. But they are nothing like as ready to go as is the Right, and have no clear alternative on offer.
    I don't think there is even the remotest possibility that The Brexit Party could win a GE. The two big parties will still poll 30%+ each but if there's a Civil War in the Tories over staying in the EU until the end of the year, then the Tories face finishing 10 or more points behind Labour as a big slice of the Tory vote goes looking for a Hard Brexit party to support. With first past the post Labour could win an overall majority on a low 30s% vote. For all the talk of The Independent Group eating into Labour support, the simple fact of the matter is that at GE level TIG are minnows nationwide in comparison to the UKIP-Brexit Party threat. Corbyn's obfuscation over choosing a side in Brexit is a wise enough strategy because it allows each Labour MP to tailor their own view to suit their own local constituency's Brexit position.


    I have a question that there's no ready answer too, when will UK politics get back to bread and butter normality? Have things gone so far there that something has to give or will it all settle down when this Brexit malarky is sorted?

  6. #2136
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    I don't think there is even the remotest possibility that The Brexit Party could win a GE. The two big parties will still poll 30%+ each but if there's a Civil War in the Tories over staying in the EU until the end of the year, then the Tories face finishing 10 or more points behind Labour as a big slice of the Tory vote goes looking for a Hard Brexit party to support. With first past the post Labour could win an overall majority on a low 30s% vote. For all the talk of The Independent Group eating into Labour support, the simple fact of the matter is that at GE level TIG are minnows nationwide in comparison to the UKIP-Brexit Party threat. Corbyn's obfuscation over choosing a side in Brexit is a wise enough strategy because it allows each Labour MP to tailor their own view to suit their own local constituency's Brexit position.


    I have a question that there's no ready answer too, when will UK politics get back to bread and butter normality? Have things gone so far there that something has to give or will it all settle down when this Brexit malarky is sorted?
    Did we think a clown would win the election in Italy ? Not even Trump thought Trump would win. Pro Brexit people were surprised they won the Referendum. Who knows ? We are living in strange times. It is possible we are seeing the end of the long post WW2 boom as trade war kicks in. But you are right, although much eroded the UK does have a labour movement and labour party and there is the basis for resistance to the right.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  7. #2137
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Meeting on still, presumably ?

    Meanwhile in the Dail elderly male TDs have been discussing the future of rural ireland without any mention of Brexit. An alternative universe ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  8. #2138
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    hard to fault this reasoning


    Whether now or in a few months hence, parliament will be confronted with a choice: either refer the Brexit question back to the people for their final say, or hold a general election to deliver a parliament capable of making a decision.

    In any general election, the Labour party will offer a minimum of a renegotiation and a referendum or even a promise to revoke article 50. When confronted with a choice between a referendum under a Conservative government or a referendum following a Labour election victory, enough Tory MPs may conclude that supporting a public vote now is the lesser of two evils.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...y-and-her-deal
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  9. #2139
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    October 31st is the new deadline?

    what a joke--

  10. #2140
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Did we think a clown would win the election in Italy ? Not even Trump thought Trump would win. Pro Brexit people were surprised they won the Referendum. Who knows ? We are living in strange times. It is possible we are seeing the end of the long post WW2 boom as trade war kicks in. But you are right, although much eroded the UK does have a labour movement and labour party and there is the basis for resistance to the right.
    Well Italy has a notorious history of political fragmentation and chaotic Governance whereas the UK has a history of rigid Governance. I suppose the Brexit farce has changed the dynamic in the UK, but the opinion polling shows no great surge away from the status quo parties. England would need to fragment politically before the 2 big English parties would lose control of the HOC, the austerity effects of a Brexit future may yet break the UK, but at the moment both of the big parties have enough Remain and Leave MPs in each to keep the UK electorate onside.

  11. #2141
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    I just heard an interesting point made by Kenny, unusual that - IF the UK actually managed to leave under the present withdrawal agreement they would enter a 2 year period of negotiation of a new trade deal with the EU. The result of the negotiation might well be a renewal of their present situation, a tariff free agreement, minus, maybe, free movement of labour. That is certainly possible, what would the ERG do then, assuming they still exist?

    Apart from that, I am happy they agreed to kick the can, again. We might get a bit of peace.

  12. #2142
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by barrym View Post
    I just heard an interesting point made by Kenny, unusual that - IF the UK actually managed to leave under the present withdrawal agreement they would enter a 2 year period of negotiation of a new trade deal with the EU. The result of the negotiation might well be a renewal of their present situation, a tariff free agreement, minus, maybe, free movement of labour. That is certainly possible, what would the ERG do then, assuming they still exist?

    Apart from that, I am happy they agreed to kick the can, again. We might get a bit of peace.
    i guess people on those islands have a hard time understanding that the result of that negotiation is not likely to end up serving the UKs interests as well as the previous agreement ... dont forget that people in the EU put up with all kinds of sh*t to keep them in the loop ... now clearly the EU had enough of their antics ..

    .. what they really thought was that Taking Back Control meant that they will be sitting at the head of ALL negotiating tables (globally) but with the EU that is unlikely to be the case .. when they renegotiate agreements on their own the hard fact is that they have a market of 60-70 million to bring to the table versus a market of 500 million in the EU .. simple math really.

  13. #2143
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Just putting it out there, that if the Tories can't deliver Brexit before the next UK GE then UKIP candidates will eat into the Tory vote across England. That would allow Labour pick up loads of Tory seats and could lead to something approaching a landslide Labour victory.





    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  14. #2144
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Well Italy has a notorious history of political fragmentation and chaotic Governance whereas the UK has a history of rigid Governance. I suppose the Brexit farce has changed the dynamic in the UK, but the opinion polling shows no great surge away from the status quo parties. England would need to fragment politically before the 2 big English parties would lose control of the HOC, the austerity effects of a Brexit future may yet break the UK, but at the moment both of the big parties have enough Remain and Leave MPs in each to keep the UK electorate onside.
    Seeing as sitting MPs have in the main been carefully tracking and trailing opinion in their constituencies, that might be expected. Except some of them have tracked their electorate right outside of the mainstream and into new parties.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  15. #2145
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    https://theintercept.com/2019/04/17/...rexit-ireland/

    Three days now since Pelosi said there would be no US - UK trade deal that would get through Congress if the UK broke the GFA / if there was a hard border.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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