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Thread: Brexit.

  1. #2086
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    good summary


    Theresa May planned to defeat herself, then decided not to defeat herself by defeating herself, then lost. To herself

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...mpression=true
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  2. #2087
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    On May


    "She is mean. She is rude. She is cruel. She is stupid. I have heard that from almost everyone who has dealt with her," Parris says. He said he had never expected this much hatred, "and that is not a word I use lightly."
    http://m.spiegel.de/international/eu...a-1258101.html
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  3. #2088
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Anyone got access to the article in the Times Ireland about Ireland's distinct lack of preparedness ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  4. #2089
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    A crash-out seems highly probable as things stand. The legislation is through and key people are pushing for it. No alternative has been put before the Commons or the EU. And the UK has spent more than 4 billion preparing for it in detail. If there is a short delay much of that 4 billion (presumably spent on things like storage) will be burnt off and would have to be set up again from scratch.

    The alternatives are a crash out, which has been prepared for by the U.K., a vote for a deal no one will vote for (very unlikely), with a very short delay to put legislation in place and even more chaos, because the preparations are all based on a crash out, or - a long shot - a much longer delay, participation in the European elections - and a distinct chance that Brexit wouldn't happen at all. Crash out is most probable in my view.

    Meanwhile in Ireland, no preparations made for the end of much of our farming and agri-food sector.
    And for very much more that is not even being looked at.

    And Ireland having to negotiate with a UK that is in very unfriendly mode towards it.

    Stock up with porridge and tinned tuna lands, and check the thatches, just in case.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  5. #2090
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Are they prepared though? Farmer's in the north don't think so. They awarded a shipping contract to a company with no ships and had a Micky mouse Port exercise with lorries that was a laughing stock.

    I was talking to a fella in the British aeronautics industry recently and they've​had to set up European offices just to make sure all their equipment still complies with EU regs... because they still need EU countries to buy their products. And this is the same for the entire UK manufacturing industry and services that sell to the EU. And they've had to to this on their own bat with very little help from the UK government.

    The EU will have to set up a compensation package for Ireland, at the very least to show that the EU will look after its own and that the consequences of leaving are not advantageous. UK famers will not have the same luxury.

  6. #2091
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    The beef industry is in trouble anyway due to saturation, way too much stock, so they'll have to come up with a plan in how to deal with that. Ireland's farming needs to become more diverse and maybe brexit will speed that along.

  7. #2092
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    I thought you were talking about us 'too much stock' Bit late now for Larry and the lads to diversify.

    OK, so now that Burcow has queered the pitch May will be in Brx on Thursday and will get the least unpalatable of the options, a short (pre EP election) delay. Presumably that has been cleared already, just in case. Anything else will risk as split in the 27. On top of all that, nobody wants a hard brexit, not that some of the 27 wouldn't like to rubs the brits nose in it, but they are pols, next election is what counts.

    The question, post Brx? can May get a 'modified' Commons vote through? Doubtful, the DUP want several more pounds of flesh.

    Are we prepared for whatever happens? are we f... We have the begging bowl out already, Big Phil has the chequebook ready. Where does that leave us? A fair few of the 26 will be saying, behind their hands, what the f are the Irish up to, no border stuff. They are still a member state, the EU has borders, like us the Hungarians, the Austrians, the Lithuanians, etc., get out of here.....

  8. #2093
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    Default Re: Brexit.








    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  9. #2094
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Fraxinus View Post
    Are they prepared though? Farmer's in the north don't think so. They awarded a shipping contract to a company with no ships and had a Micky mouse Port exercise with lorries that was a laughing stock.

    I was talking to a fella in the British aeronautics industry recently and they've​had to set up European offices just to make sure all their equipment still complies with EU regs... because they still need EU countries to buy their products. And this is the same for the entire UK manufacturing industry and services that sell to the EU. And they've had to to this on their own bat with very little help from the UK government.

    The EU will have to set up a compensation package for Ireland, at the very least to show that the EU will look after its own and that the consequences of leaving are not advantageous. UK famers will not have the same luxury.
    They are not fully prepared of course but they are a damn sight more prepared than Ireland is (i.e. not prepared at all). If you look at the equivalent Government websites for Uk citizens and for Irish, on all the issues there, the UK is fully prepared, Ireland not at all. Ireland is facing in to having to negotiate all kinds of inter-State arrangements that may not even be allowable with the UK outside the EU. A gigantic social and economic bleed for Ireland, already carrying massive debt. I've stocked up the larder, but no amount of larder stocking is going to see anyone through this. Right from the beginning Gov. does not seem to have realised that the U.K. Ireland issues are the thing, much bigger in fact than the border (which it is itself a huge thing.) Tough times ahead.

    The UK apparently has a plan in place for a massive lamb cull.

    They have been readying up for Brexit in a very practical way. A short delay would make it more chaotic, not less. The Commons are in uproar today over the May plan for a 2 year delay. We are much closer to crash out even than yesterday. Corbyn is just playing around with the situation - he actually favours leaving and I am beginning to feel is a very reactionary man who has been happy enough to lean in to the old imperialist-minded side of the British working class.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 20-03-2019 at 01:25 PM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  10. #2095
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Corbyn is just playing around with the situation - he actually favours leaving and I am beginning to feel is a very reactionary man who has been happy enough to lean in to the old imperialist-minded side of the British working class.
    Inclined to agree.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

  11. #2096
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Oops wrong thread.....
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #2097
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post





    Is that a threat to cut Corporation tax below the Irish level ?

    In every way, a carnival of reaction.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  13. #2098
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Sidewinder View Post
    As I believe I predicted weeks or months ago, when it comes to the vote a sufficient number of Labour, LibDem, SNP etc "rebels" will be found to counter-balance the ERG lunatics and get the vote through the Commons. There will be lots of hot air about how Corbyn/Sturgeon/Cable have lost control of their parties and sanctimonious blether about will of the people, national interest, safeguarding the future, blah blah fncking blah.

    Everybody will know that the "rebel" votes were really pre-arranged and approved, everybody will play their part in the ensuing two days of bullsh1t theatre, nobody will ever allude to this in public as that would be terribly bad form and simply not cricket, the demands of the nebulous and oh-so-flexible "constitution" will have been met, and the deal will therefore proceed to the Lords who will assent with a flourish.

    A week later the national conversation will have gone back to moaning about the weather and some deranged scaremongering from the Daily Heil about a network of peadophile jihadists injecting heroin into strawberries in the heart of Warwickshire.

    And if BoJo or Raab or Mogg start trying to make a fuss about Brexit after the aforementioned ceremonial procedurals have been observed, they will get absolutely savaged for it, as Brexit is now considered "settled" and it would be now terribly rude to rock the boat, upset the applecart and continue to make a fuss after the matter has been seen to have been appropriately adjudged by the legitimate authorities.

    That's the British way of doing things.

    Some of the Brexit-related apocalyptic conspiracy theories popular on here recently have been really bizarre.
    Could you have been more wrong. Shaadi in fact has this right. This is political and emotional, not about number crunching. The baying Tory mob want to crash out and so does Corbyn.
    There have been armed forces on both sides of the border already 'casing the joint' - mainstream news sources . This border will be an EU border, not an Irish border. And the EU border will run between Dublin and Holyhead, not just across this island. A united Ireland would the only possible way to go forward post crash out, from an Irish point of view, in my opinion.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  14. #2099
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    According to the Twitter machine May could be gone as PM by Monday
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  15. #2100
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    It appears from the dates that the crash out may already be irreversible - looking at May's letter to the EU - here.
    https://www.msn.com/en-ie/news/brexi...jTn?li=BBr5KbJ
    She can't get the 'deal' through the Commons - the Speaker has said it must be substantially different before a vote, and that would mean it would have to be approved in the next Council of Europe - and they will not give her any more time to attempt to fudge a change to it. Article 50 withdrawal is not going to happen. A vote for a long extension and participation in the EU elections is not going to happen. Corbyn is an anti-EU left opportunist and will not lead a thing. David Lammy may be the next Labour leaders, but it will be too late.

    The demonstration yesterday at a million will not make any difference. There were mass protests before WW2 was declared and before Iraq with no effect. It would have had to be many times larger to make the Government even blink.

    RTE's coverage of this - and lack of coverage - has been dire. Ireland is in for one hell of a shock. There is a lack of preparedness for Brexit and also a lack of comprehension of the relationship - economic, social, and political. Bloody Sunday memories may have disturbed that complacency in the last few days but in RTE even that classic Colonial act was portrayed in terms of a couple of 'bad apple' loopy soldiers mysteriously allowed to run amok shooting people for 15 minutes without their officers stopping them.

    The sad little Royal visits were all it took for Montrose to roll over like little puppies wanting to be kicked. FG is a cattle farmer party and was fixated on the border for its own peoples' interests and not a bull's notion of the implication for the wider economy (for example, there are already small businesses closing because Irish insurance prices are more than double the UK ones that that are being terminated).

    Brexit in Britain has been prepared for with a 4 billion spend and legislation work for two years, not two days, as it has been here. And a Cobra / martial law regime has been prepared "Operation Yellowhammer" to keep the trains etc. running and to deal with any public protests or looting.

    In retrospect, this is certainly not a situation made by May or even our completely inadequate government. The U.K.'s position as global power and economy is ebbing year on year, overtaken by China. The U.K. is lurching to the right, as it becomes a more and more impoverished nation run by and for people who are enormously personally wealthy. The opportunist left in Britain has taken a lurch to the right too under the folksy guise of Corbyn. Trumpism is about to be instituted in the U.K. but with a stronger focus on the military, as arms production and sales (and war-starting, globally) will be come an even bigger item in the UK economy as the old imperial lion goes rogue).

    Britain is currently depending on how you calculate, somewhere between 5th and 8th largest economy globally but has been overtaken by China and on the basis of current stats is about to be overtaken by India and France. This prediction for 2030 has the UK out of the top ten, and of EU countries only Germany remaining in it. However, as well as the East, Russia and Brazil are also motoring. The UK leaving the EU will have big economic and political effects on the EU. Ireland has been benefiting from UK support on taxation and other issues and Ireland's position in the EU will change. The Irish economy will be profoundly disrupted by Brexit, much more so than the UK economy which is not dependent on Ireland (whilst the Irish economy is highly dependent on the UK). Politically, a game changer here as so far no party has shown any form in grasping the deep changes going on and preparing for them.

    New political parties will emerge out of this, both right and left and many heads will roll, not just May's.




    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...030/ar-BBRXCc7
    Last edited by C. Flower; 24-03-2019 at 10:02 AM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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