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Thread: Brexit.

  1. #2011
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    The Backstop is under immense pressure and scrutiny in the UK Parliament, to the point where it looks like it will be nigh on impossible for the current Backstop wording to be included in a final deal.

    If a deal is to go through the Commons then a new form of words may emerge as a compromise to negate the permanence attached to the current Backstop arrangement.

    Will the EU stand by Ireland or will realpolitik force a UK win over Irish interests? A sacrificing of the Backstop would be enough to give the UK a win that would be enough to get a withdrawal agreement through Parliament.

    Is Leo stubborn enough to stand his ground? He appears to be well able to take the pressure so it will be interesting to see how he deals with any attempt to water down the Backstop.
    Last edited by Shaadi; 05-12-2018 at 08:15 PM.

  2. #2012
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  3. #2013
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  4. #2014
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Looks like the 48 letters to Santa/Satan have been received. (BBC Twitter).

    Regards...jmcc

  5. #2015
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcc View Post
    Looks like the 48 letters to Santa/Satan have been received. (BBC Twitter).

    Regards...jmcc
    Yep, it's as if changing the leader is expected to change the set of problems preventing the UK getting the Brexit they want.

    Anyhoo below is an assessment of what would happen if the leadership challenge was successful.



    What would happen to the Brexit talks?
    A May victory would prevent any leadership challenges, under Conservative party rules, for another year. It would strengthen her hand in dealing with Brussels, and allow her to say: you can see how much I need your help in avoiding a no-deal scenario, and getting Brexit through.

    If May was defeated, the Brexit talks, and indeed government, would grind to a halt, as any serious negotiations would have to wait for a new leader to be in place. Conservative party rules state there are two parts to a leadership contest: any number of MPs can stand and then all the party’s 315 MPs vote to whittle that down to two.

    That can be achieved by Christmas, but then there would normally have to be a ballot of members over the holiday season and not concluding until early January – unless one of the final two candidates drops out to speed up the Brexit talks.

    If there is a new leader, is the only realistic option no deal?
    There are two immediate possibilities for a new leader. A cabinet member could try to broadly follow May’s path – in trying to wring some concessions out of the European Union over the unpopular backstop, sign a revised exit withdrawal agreement, and concentrate energies on securing a new free trade deal

    But they would still have to get the deal through parliament, running the gauntlet of both Labour and the hard Brexit faction in the Tory party. At present, there is no parliamentary majority for May’s deal or anything similar.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics...hallenges-work

  6. #2016
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    If only they had known of the Good Friday Agreement before allowing a BREXIT vote


    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  7. #2017
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    Default Re: Brexit.



    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  8. #2018
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    May wins, but

    - Over a third of Tory MPs have no confidence in May
    - Over half of backbenchers
    - May now vulnerable to Commons confidence vote
    - Expectations were for only 80 rebels
    - May only won after saying she wouldn't fight next election and restoring whip to suspended MPs.

    https://twitter.com/alexwickham/stat...63917498982400
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  9. #2019
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    If only they had known of the Good Friday Agreement before allowing a BREXIT vote


    Indeed, the current rage in the UK over the Backstop kind of shows the hollowness of the "No selfish strategic or economic interest" in Northern Ireland" line trotted out by the UK during the GFA.

    It's clear that there's a very significant body of UK politicians who don't respect the simple fact that the majority in NI want the Backstop, so the only ones willing to bring the UK to its knees economically are the UK-Nationalists in the House Of Commons.

  10. #2020
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    Indeed, the current rage in the UK over the Backstop kind of shows the hollowness of the "No selfish strategic or economic interest" in Northern Ireland" line trotted out by the UK during the GFA.

    It's clear that there's a very significant body of UK politicians who don't respect the simple fact that the majority in NI want the Backstop, so the only ones willing to bring the UK to its knees economically are the UK-Nationalists in the House Of Commons.
    It may be more complex than a simple resentment of NI and the Backstop. If NI gets its way, then Scotland will probably push for independence and it is this that is driving many of the UKnians. Not so sure about Wales but it has Plaid Cymru and a solid enough identity of its own.

    Regards...jmcc

  11. #2021
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    If only they had known of the Good Friday Agreement before allowing a BREXIT vote


    True.
    Happiness is an inside job.

  12. #2022
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    everyone upset that Juncker used a word when making a speech in his 4th language

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-polit...ebulous-remark
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  13. #2023
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    everyone upset that Juncker used a word when making a speech in his 4th language

    https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-polit...ebulous-remark
    It's gas really that they'd be upset at such an accurate remark when you consider just how screwed up the UK Govt Civil War has made the British Brexit position.

    EU and UK => Deal => UK Parliament = No Deal.

    The real UK position is indeed as clear as mud.

    Methinks it's time to be stockpiling a few tins of beans and other essentials in preparation for the insanity that could flow from a HARD BREXIT.

  14. #2024
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Long but good read......and the backstop is barely mentioned.......

    https://news.liverpool.ac.uk/2018/12...ers-on-brexit/
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  15. #2025
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Another read, from an Irish journo... https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2018/1...r-think-he-is/

    Once again, you could not make it up.

    Yesterday's NYT had a very interesting flow chart on the possible outcomes. Everywhere you look there is nothing but "if....but"

    What is the latest betting? Probably the best predictive.

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