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Thread: Brexit.

  1. #151
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by pluralist View Post
    Not sure where you're getting this from. Bookies odds are 1/3 on for Remain.

    Wonder if the Scottish Nationalists will vote no en masse in hopes of tipping the balance to OUT, and thus reigniting the independence issue. [/SIZE]

    I expect that Remainers will win and by a fairly comfortable margin. I would predict 42%/58% or so.
    how can you be so sure about these numbers? that doesn't add up with all the other data people have been gathering ... it seems to be so close that a major global event could tip it to Brexit (i think)

  2. #152
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

  3. #153
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by pluralist View Post
    interesting

    do you have any piece the correlates the results in Betting v Polling in the real world? for past elections

  4. #154
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    interesting

    do you have any piece the correlates the results in Betting v Polling in the real world? for past elections
    Will try and find one....off the top of my head, I think the betting odds were largely accurate in the case of the Scots Indyref.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

  5. #155
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by pluralist View Post
    Will try and find one....off the top of my head, I think the betting odds were largely accurate in the case of the Scots Indyref.
    ok that is important ... do they also bet on international affairs?

    what about on your recent 'gender equality laws'? do you recall what was?

  6. #156
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Paddy Power had Yes winning 1/10. So the bookies called that one right. I just looked at their website and the next Pope will be Tagie from the Philippines - at 5/1! Although Francis seems healthy and yer man is probably about 200 years old so don't bet the house on it.

  7. #157
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    The Remain group have a very simple strategy to guarantee victory

    Say that all European football players signed by English clubs will be in danger of needing work permits

    Case closed
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  8. #158
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    The Remain group have a very simple strategy to guarantee victory

    Say that all European football players signed by English clubs will be in danger of needing work permits

    Case closed
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  9. #159
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Donal Og View Post
    Paddy Power had Yes winning 1/10. So the bookies called that one right. I just looked at their website and the next Pope will be Tagie from the Philippines - at 5/1! Although Francis seems healthy and yer man is probably about 200 years old so don't bet the house on it.
    well

    here goes a really naive one

    but.. ok

    Is gambling legal in Ireland?

    [also, do we have a profile of Paddy Power that enjoys this practice? male/female; age group; education level (well religion doesn't matter in Ire) that kinda stuff]

  10. #160
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Yes , gambling is quite legal here. As to the rest of your queries I couldn't say. Betting is one vice I never acquired. In the case of Brexit you would have to factor in more than for gay equality , which most people would see as ' victimless' whereas Brexit could have all sorts of ramifications. The power of incumbency comes into play too. The Labour govt actually held a referendum on membership in 1975. But by then UK had already been signed up - in 73- by the Conservative govt of Ted Heath. The British people voted to stay by a big margin. Britain was in deep doodoo after the oil price shock following Yom Kippur war..so there was no great desire to strike out alone.

  11. #161
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by Donal Og View Post
    Paddy Power had Yes winning 1/10. So the bookies called that one right.
    Was only as short as that on the immediate eve of the referendum (I'm surprised they even kept the market open) but even from the early stages I think the odds favoured Vote Yes.
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

  12. #162
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    well

    here goes a really naive one

    but.. ok

    Is gambling legal in Ireland?

    [also, do we have a profile of Paddy Power that enjoys this practice? male/female; age group; education level (well religion doesn't matter in Ire) that kinda stuff]
    I used to see a lot of reports on this kind of stuff because of a job I used to have, so in a way I'm a good person to ask.

    The Paddy Power consumer demographic would be biased towards young and middle aged males (particularly for the heavier gamblers)

    Lottery I think has more of an evenly spread demographic across genders, age groups, social classes.

    While in general, gambling is legal in Ireland, Pat Rabbitte did a good thing a few years ago when he insisted that Fixed Odds Betting Terminals (dubbed the 'crack cocaine' of gambling) would not be allowed in Ireland.

    http://www.irishtimes.com/news/gambl...hines-1.898604
    "If you go far enough to either extreme of the political spectrum, Communist or fascist, you'll find hard-eyed men with guns who believe that anybody who doesn't think as they do should be incarcerated or exterminated. " - Jim Garrison, Former DA, New Orleans.

  13. #163
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  14. #164
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by random new yorker View Post
    well

    here goes a really naive one

    but.. ok

    Is gambling legal in Ireland?

    [also, do we have a profile of Paddy Power that enjoys this practice? male/female; age group; education level (well religion doesn't matter in Ire) that kinda stuff]
    Good analysis here, by an academic economist, on betting trends etc


    http://theconversation.com/brexit-ca...ht-again-57514
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  15. #165
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    Default Re: Brexit.

    Quote Originally Posted by DCon View Post
    Good analysis here, by an academic economist, on betting trends etc


    http://theconversation.com/brexit-ca...ht-again-57514
    i have a very hard time believing these numbers... let's assume this could signal the vote of the young-to-middle-aged male?

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