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Thread: ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al Shabab etc. etc. - Where did they come from, where are they going ?

  1. #2656
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    Default Re: ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al Shabab etc. etc. - Where did they come from, where are they going ?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    A bit better informed about the state of Iraqi nationhood and politics than the Spartacists -

    https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/2017/...iraq/#comments

    There is an increasingly visible US presence on the ground: the strategy of reliance on proxies alone has failed. Setting up of US bases in Syria and Iraq is a red rag to a bull.
    I am uninpressed by this piece. Are the Kurdish statelets viable? No, because both of them are dependent on US support, and the second that ISIS is defeated that US support will be withdrawn in the traditional fashion. Betrayal of the Kurds by the US is one of the oldest and most consistent story lines of recent Middle Eastern history.

    That the article fails to even mention the Shi'ite sectarian nature of the PMU is even worse. After ISIS is destroyed, PMU atrocities vs. Sunnis, with the weight of both the US and Iran behind them, will plunge Iraq into yet further misery, and likely soon generate a new version of ISIS on the Sunni side. (How the growing hostility between the US and Trump will effect this is hard to say, but it is hard to see Trump trying to play the "Awakening" card again, after the results the last time.)

    And that the article fails to even notice that the Syrian army (with the support of Iran of course) has already definitively cut off the Syrian Kurds and their US paymasters from any possibility of going after Deir al-Zour or advancing south of Tabqah shows am ignorant misunderstanding of the military situation. Indeed, reports are that the Kurds and the Syrian regime, apparently with Trump's permission, have agreed on mutual boundaries.

    And who is this "axis of the resistance" they are muttering about? The "tribes of the north" they mention have apparently, wanting to be on the side of the winner, gone over to Assad. A central role in recent Assad advances south of Raqqah is being played by what are described as "tribal forces."

    The "resistance" at this point increasingly boils down to HTS, the allegedly ex-franchise of Al Q'aida, who are literally the blood brothers of ISIS, the falling out between them being still only a few years ago. If ISIS is just an imperial puppet and creature, why would HTS be anything else? The string of evidence you've come up with to try to prove, or at least suggest, that ISIS is a creature of US imperialism surely could be matched with an identical string of suspicious-looking factoids for HTS.

    When the dust settles after the defeat of ISIS, what will US policy for Syria be? Well, if Trump manages to hang onto the White House (which I think he will) probably a US/Russia/Turkey/Assad alliance vs. the Kurds and Iran.

    How can the desirable goal of Kurdish national self-determination (the Kurds unlike Iraq really are a nation) be achieved? Only through revolution against all the reactionary states of the Middle East and their imperial masters. Certainly not through reliance on temporary support from US imperialism. And that is not just an assertion, but the lesson of a long history.

    -AMH-

  2. #2657
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    Default Re: ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al Shabab etc. etc. - Where did they come from, where are they going ?

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    I am uninpressed by this piece. Are the Kurdish statelets viable? No, because both of them are dependent on US support, and the second that ISIS is defeated that US support will be withdrawn in the traditional fashion. Betrayal of the Kurds by the US is one of the oldest and most consistent story lines of recent Middle Eastern history.

    That the article fails to even mention the Shi'ite sectarian nature of the PMU is even worse. After ISIS is destroyed, PMU atrocities vs. Sunnis, with the weight of both the US and Iran behind them, will plunge Iraq into yet further misery, and likely soon generate a new version of ISIS on the Sunni side. (How the growing hostility between the US and Trump will effect this is hard to say, but it is hard to see Trump trying to play the "Awakening" card again, after the results the last time.)

    And that the article fails to even notice that the Syrian army (with the support of Iran of course) has already definitively cut off the Syrian Kurds and their US paymasters from any possibility of going after Deir al-Zour or advancing south of Tabqah shows am ignorant misunderstanding of the military situation. Indeed, reports are that the Kurds and the Syrian regime, apparently with Trump's permission, have agreed on mutual boundaries.

    And who is this "axis of the resistance" they are muttering about? The "tribes of the north" they mention have apparently, wanting to be on the side of the winner, gone over to Assad. A central role in recent Assad advances south of Raqqah is being played by what are described as "tribal forces."

    The "resistance" at this point increasingly boils down to HTS, the allegedly ex-franchise of Al Q'aida, who are literally the blood brothers of ISIS, the falling out between them being still only a few years ago. If ISIS is just an imperial puppet and creature, why would HTS be anything else? The string of evidence you've come up with to try to prove, or at least suggest, that ISIS is a creature of US imperialism surely could be matched with an identical string of suspicious-looking factoids for HTS.

    When the dust settles after the defeat of ISIS, what will US policy for Syria be? Well, if Trump manages to hang onto the White House (which I think he will) probably a US/Russia/Turkey/Assad alliance vs. the Kurds and Iran.

    How can the desirable goal of Kurdish national self-determination (the Kurds unlike Iraq really are a nation) be achieved? Only through revolution against all the reactionary states of the Middle East and their imperial masters. Certainly not through reliance on temporary support from US imperialism. And that is not just an assertion, but the lesson of a long history.

    -AMH-

    Whatever makes you think the HTS is anything other than another proxy group ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  3. #2658
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    Default Re: ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al Shabab etc. etc. - Where did they come from, where are they going ?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Whatever makes you think the HTS is anything other than another proxy group ?
    Pretty much everything. Have they gotten occasional subsidies from Qatar or Turkey or whoever? Yes, but that is really no different from Irish rebels getting help from Germany. All the signs are that they are beholden to nobody in particular. Their vileness seems strictly homegrown.

    -AMH-

  4. #2659
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    Default Re: ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al Shabab etc. etc. - Where did they come from, where are they going ?

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    Pretty much everything. Have they gotten occasional subsidies from Qatar or Turkey or whoever? Yes, but that is really no different from Irish rebels getting help from Germany.
    Yes it is entirely different. In Ireland the agenda was anti-Imperialist and progressive and they did not commit sectarian atrocities.
    All the signs are that they are beholden to nobody in particular. Their vileness seems strictly homegrown.
    Your own view entirely and one that ignores the history of this particular kind of vileness and ignores the history of Syria.

    Time and again the MB and co were supported by the CIA to heave against the state. Of course the HTS has been externally funded.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  5. #2660
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    Default Re: ISIS, Al Qaeda, Boko Haram, Al Shabab etc. etc. - Where did they come from, where are they going ?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Yes it is entirely different. In Ireland the agenda was anti-Imperialist and progressive and they did not commit sectarian atrocities.
    Absolutely true, but actually besides the point. ISIS are profoundly reactionary, the Irish rebels progressive. But neither were or are puppets of foreign masters.

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post

    Your own view entirely and one that ignores the history of this particular kind of vileness and ignores the history of Syria.

    Time and again the MB and co were supported by the CIA to heave against the state. Of course the HTS has been externally funded.
    My view entirely? Yes, but very far from my view alone, and here I am not talking about the Spartacists. IMHO my view is founded precisely on the history of ISIS and Syria--but we have been arguing this out for years now here, I am not at all sure there is much more to say.

    The MB and its offshoots (which one perhaps could argue might include ISIS in some sense) have certainly received foreign backing and support, but thinking that the MB was ever simply a foreign puppet, in Egypt or elsewhere, shows an utter miscomprehension of the Middle East.

    Why did it receive foreign support? Quite simply, because it is a reactionary force, and in the era of imperialism imperialists will inevitably in the last analysis support reaction, as that is the nature of the capitalist imperialism of this era. Whatever the maneuverism of the moment may require. End of story really.

    -AMH-

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