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Thread: Local Elections 2014 - Fingal County Council in Dublin

  1. #1
    Join Date
    Sep 2013
    Greater Benelux

    Default Local Elections 2014 - Fingal County Council in Dublin

    Castleknock Local Electoral Area, Fingal ‘County’ Council in Dublin

    I’m probably in a position to talk about the Castleknock Ward of Fingal County Council for the moment

    I have done a little bit of thinking about this; my amateur Psephology is open to criticism

    Based on population changes new arrangements, Castleknock LEA will have 7 councillors. The boundaries of these expanded LEAs in Fingal ‘County’ Council haven’t changed. The nearby LEA of Mulhuddart will have 8 councillors; I may come back if I’ve time to make ‘g-estimates’ about this Ward.

    Made up of Blanchardstown, Castleknock and Clonsilla, “Castleknock Local Electoral Area” is a very mixed LEA; there is a very broad political spectrum that reflects the mix of classes. The more leafier, upper-middle class parts of Castleknock village and ‘Peck’s Lane Castleknock’ obviously have different economic interests than the working class estates of Coolmine.

    While its not quite the district of Wedding in Berlin, there is a solid working class that has yielded socialist representatives over the years. The Socialist Party’s Joe Higgins from 1997 to present, and the Workers’ Party’s Tomas Mac Giolla from 1982 to 1992 were TDs in the constituency of Dublin West.

    So, let me take you thru the candidates

    Fine Gael
    1) Outgoing Blueshirt Councillor Eithne Loftus will be comfortably re-elected

    There is a core Fine Gael support base here for generations. She has a profile among these old-money types, being involved in many organisations that proves she will represent the well-heeled and their admirers well.

    2) First-time candidate Ted Leddy is a 32 years old local who, from what I hear, the FG grass-roots are really pushing to get elected so as to build his profile for a future Dail candidacy. I believe he’ll be elected.

    3) Henry Minogue will be an ‘also ran’, me thinks

    Fianna Fail
    For the gnomes in FF head-office in lower Mount St planning the ‘comeback’, the Soldiers of Corruption must become credible for people in the capital again. The well-founded suspicions of corruption on local authorities actually meant something when the populace of suburban Dublin (like D15) found themselves out of work, with property that was worth less, with little in the way of facilities for the kids and a barrage of stealth taxes (Bin, Water, Household, and Property), and cuts across the board lowering living standards. One result was people holding FF councillors in suspicion for this council vote or that council vote that enriched some land speculator or property developer.

    Irish people never cease to amaze me when it comes to politics. At times it seems, anecdotally at least, that in an area like this the NAMA Party remain insulated from the undeniable public backlash against the Fianna Fail. One FF candidate in Castleknock Local Electoral Area will get elected because there are enough lower-middle class people in Roselawn, Blanch village and Clonsilla who identify with Fianna Fail in power. FF are forgiven, only just, but forgiven.

    1) Outgoing councillor Mags Murray to be elected on the third count

    2) first time candidates Edward Mac Manus and Jack Chambers

    Socialist Party / Anti-Austerity Alliance
    1) Outgoing Millie Councillor Matt Waine (co-opted in place of Joe Higgins on his election to Strasbourg the same day in 2009) really should retain his seat. Waine has build up a serious profile with his involvement with the Campaign Against Home & Water Taxes, the ruckus with the ole bill in late 2009 with the occupying Thomas Cook travel agent workers proves to working class people that he is not just full of ****, he has kept his constituents up to date with a impressive record of voting on the council itself.

    Higgins in that Ward in ‘09 with his higher public profile got 3,787 votes (the quota was 2,699). Waine should keep a fair chunk of that.

    2) Sandra Kavanagh
    First-time candidate but long-time activist Kavanagh should be pulled through if the level of anger, that is palpable, is tapped into sufficiently.

    I have said it elsewhere, I think the biggest result in these elections will be apathy; huge numbers of people will think it some form of protest to not go and vote at all. That sort of sentiment will affect candidates put up by the likes of the Anti Austerity Alliance more than it will Fine Gael.

    Green party
    Roderic O'Gorman has bucked the trend elsewhere. In the 2009 Locals, an election that saw his party in electoral meltdown he managed to double his vote from what it was in 2004. Then in the 2011 by-election he got 1,787. Mainly as a result of making arguments about transparency in urban development decision and saving the Green belt that marks Dublin city from Dublin County that appeal to many across the social divide.

    He may well get elected on a last count

    John Walsh (who was co-opted to replace retiring Lab Co-er Peggy Hamill about a year ago) will lose his deposit. Or rather the party’s deposit. That Ward is a definite Labour loss.

    People Before Profit Alliance / Socialist Workers Party
    Memet Uludag, a hard-working campaigner from what I hear, he’ll do well for this his first time out but the SWiPs won’t take a seat here

    There are a number of independents also. I can’t find too much info at this quick search. I’ll come back to this thread and add later. Or if someone else has info on independents in Castleknock Local Electoral Area please add it.

    Sinn Fein
    Natalie Treacy. Unlikely to get elected. SF has never done well in this ward. Fingal is a local authority without any Shinners. Treacy will clean up in her native Mountview and adjacent Fortlawn, she has been an activist there for some years but those numbers wont be enough to see her get elected in 2014.

    Special thanks for the figs in my amateur Psephology to Seán Donnelly’s website
    - This is also very informative for elections for around the state
    For a map of where I’m talking about
    Last edited by Pearse Monnet; 18-05-2014 at 11:37 PM. Reason: updated FF candidate names
    Sss-hh. Don’t mention the lack of sovereignty in the Irish state.
    The acknowledgement of the 1916 Rising by the Establishment and its nauseating, craven lackeys is simply a political convenience devoid of any real meaning!

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Aug 2010

    Default Re: Local Elections 2014 - Fingal County Council in Dublin

    Spambot got through I see.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    hiding inside Brendan Gleesons underwear drawer...

    Default Re: Local Elections 2014 - Fingal County Council in Dublin

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    Spambot got through I see.
    Ang where are yo when we need you!
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

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