View Poll Results: How Would You Vote / Will You Vote In a By Election This Week ?

Voters
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  • Sinn Fein

    26 41.94%
  • Labour

    1 1.61%
  • Fine Gael

    0 0%
  • Fianna Fail

    4 6.45%
  • People Before Profit

    3 4.84%
  • Green Party

    0 0%
  • Anti Austerity Alliance

    9 14.52%
  • Independent Left

    12 19.35%
  • Independent Ming Endorsed

    3 4.84%
  • Independent Other

    2 3.23%
  • Would Not Vote

    2 3.23%
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Thread: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

  1. #1
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    Default Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Coppinger ran McGuinness very close last time. Was it a vote in it at the end? Neither Joan or Leo want to share so it will be left to FF and whoever can challenge.

    There a Dublin specific poll recently showing FF still way down? McGuinness may not be able to count on as much of a Lenihan boost this time out.

    Could be an interesting one.

    Edit: RedC for Dublin January just gone was

    FG 26%; FF 14%; SF 18%; Lab 14%; Ind/Other 28%.

    1st Pref on 2011 by-election was 24.3% (LP) Nulty, 21.7% FF, 21.1%, SP 21.1%, FG 14.7%, SF 8.9%.
    Last edited by Dr. FIVE; 22-03-2014 at 08:09 PM.

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. FIVE View Post
    Coppinger ran McGuinness very close last time. Was it a vote in it at the end? Neither Joan or Leo want to share so it will be left to FF and whoever can challenge.

    There a Dublin specific poll recently showing FF still way down? McGuinness may not be able to count on as much of a Lenihan boost this time out.

    Could be an interesting one.

    Edit: RedC for Dublin January just gone was

    FG 26%; FF 14%; SF 18%; Lab 14%; Ind/Other 28%.

    1st Pref on 2011 by-election was 24.3% (LP) Nulty, 21.7% FF, 21.1%, SP 21.1%, FG 14.7%, SF 8.9%.
    I'd expect Ruth Coppinger to top the poll on around 23% as she should get a share of the likely large drop in Labour support since the by-election when Labour were still quite popular, SF should also advance but not enough to get into serious contention.

    So Ruth should be a few percent clear of FG and FF who should both be in the 15 to 20% bracket with Labour and SF just behind them in the low to mid teens. Ruth should get enough of boost from the eliminated SF and Labour vote to stay well ahead of FF and FG who are unlikely to be close enough or to transfer enough to each other to pass Ruth out when one of them goes out at the 3 left in stage.
    Last edited by Shaadi; 22-03-2014 at 08:46 PM.

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    With Patrick Nulty TD resigning it's a chance for Lucinda to put up or shut up.
    Give me a misty day, pearly gray, silver, silky faced, wide-awake crescent-shaped smile

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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Ruth Coppinger should and will be favourite – a lot of Nulty’s vote was an anti-austerity vote because he did a dance around the fringes of the issue in the by-election claiming he was anti-austerity. FF are still toxic to transfers. It is possible that FG/LP will run a minimal campaign in the hope that some of their voters will pass to FF to keep out the AAA/SP but I don't think that would work

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    electionlit points out that this election could well take place after May as the European Parliament and indeed Hogan's elevation to commissioner will potentially require a number of by-elections (Hayes, Harris, Ming etc) Long way from May in any case. I agree with Andrew too. Varadkar made sure no-hoper Loftus was on the ballot last time out but the RA on his patch could be a different story. I think we had details on Burton's battles over Nulty's selection in the other thread so I will have a look. She, and indeed most at Ely Place, wanted a SIPTU staffer if I recall. Either way the two ministers will decide how the race will shape up for everyone else.

    I would be cautious about calling any certainty this far out. Coppinger has the local work & profile no doubt but so does McGuinness. FF completely collapsed in DSW, maybe hoping to get O'Connor back in there but will see DW as their best shot in Dublin after 2011 . How much of Nulty's vote was a Labour vote (Burton comfortably topped poll, 2011 prebudget first Burton at least), how much was a Nulty vote, how much of both was an anti-austerity/government vote, How will Sinn Féin figure in a Lefty Dublin constituency?

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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. FIVE View Post
    how much was a Nulty vote, how much of both was an anti-austerity/government vote, How will Sinn Féin figure in a Lefty Dublin constituency?
    A lot of it - Nulty campaigned as an anti-austerity candidate. If the by-election had been held after the budget and Nulty was the candidate it is likely that there would have been a 1000+ vote swing from Nulty to Ruth Coppinger purely on the basis of that austerity budget and Ruth would have won the seat.

    Ruth Coppinger and SF will benefit more than anyone from Nulty's vote.

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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Stop Fianna Fáil The Socialist Party better get their banners printed so

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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Labour do not deserve any votes in the by-election for selecting such an inadequate candidate last time. It doesn't say much for the voting public either.

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Will be interesting to see how quickly it is held

    Joan says within 6 months

    It is a reform of the Government that, unlike with the previous Government, by-election vacancies will be filled within six months of the vacancy arising. That is good. It gives the people of Dublin West an opportunity to fill the seat which was filled by someone as distinguished and as thoughtful in relation to his constituency as the late Deputy Brian Lenihan.


    Joan on Nulty

    The Labour Party has nominated my colleague, Councillor Patrick Nulty, to contest the by-election. Councillor Nulty is a young councillor. He was elected at the head of the poll at the last local elections. He stood with me in this year’s general election. Mr. Pat Nulty comes from a family that has lived in Blakestown and Clonsilla for many generations. He was brought up in Corduff and went to school in St. Patrick’s national school in Corduff and Riversdale community college. He studied at Trinity College before doing a master’s degree at UCD. His family and the local community can be very proud of the contribution this young politician has sought to make as a public representative of integrity, hard work and commitment to the people of Dublin West.

    Leo

    This vacancy is being filled within a six-month period. That is a good change. When we were in opposition, we promised that if we got into government, Dáil vacancies would be filled within six months. We passed legislation in this House to facilitate that. It is welcome that by-elections will be held to fill vacancies within six months from now on.


    http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2011/10/04/00027.asp
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Jayus Five - will ye provide a decrypting file with yer posts I have a headache trying to work it out...

    My only comment on the whole affair, we might have thought the younger political class would be better... we were wrong - another drunk.....

  11. #11
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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew49 View Post
    With Patrick Nulty TD resigning it's a chance for Lucinda to put up or shut up.
    How? She is already a TD

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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    David Hall throwing his hat in the ring


    His was a close friend of Lenihan

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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    David Hall reportedly to stand.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. FIVE View Post
    David Hall throwing his hat in the ring


    His was a close friend of Lenihan
    That has to good for Coppinger, she was facing competition from FF for poll topping status and this guy should drag that FF vote down a bit.

    Don't rule out FG either, they ran a lemon last time and should on a support adjustment based on opinion polls and their GE 2011 vote be capable of hitting 20% with the right candidate.
    Last edited by Shaadi; 24-03-2014 at 10:52 PM.

  15. #15
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    Default Re: Dublin West By-Election (sometime in 2014)

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    That has to good for Coppinger, she was facing competition from FF for poll topping status and this guy should drag that FF vote down a bit.
    I would have thought a strong independent would be more damaging to Coppinger than to FF. In any case he does not seem to have decided yet about running..

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