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Thread: Venezuelan Crisis

  1. #46
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Doesnt sound like a stalinist or even headed that way regime to me . Just the usual chaos https://www.insightcrime.org/news/an...-told-inmates/

    And an economic story that may be significant - Venezuela and Portugal Sign 22 Bilateral Agreements https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13588
    Last edited by GregTimo; 10-01-2018 at 01:34 PM.

  2. #47
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Refugee Camps for Venezuelans| Refugee camps are rare in Latin America, but Venezuelans fleeing their ravaged nation are pouring into neighboring countries in numbers not seen since armed conflicts gripped the region more than two decades ago. In November alone, 96,000 Venezuelans entered Colombia while some 60,000 are now in Brazil’s Roraima state, and authorities are struggling to cope.


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...m_campaign=bop
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  3. #48
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    My thoughts ; there has been a lot of corruption in Venezuela linked with the oil historically, which sadly Chavism only checked temporarily. Now with the fall in the price of oil and US sanctions and destabalisation making things worse it has been in crisis since 2015 . Understanding the relative weights of these factors is not easy, but here's a go . Bear in mind these people are just volunteers against the corporate media eyeing the oil wealth and their analysis may not cover all the angles

    https://venezuelanalysis.com/ANALYSIS/13634

  4. #49
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    Venezuela: Presidential Election Date Set for April 22 https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13644

  5. #50
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis


    RUBIO CALLS FOR VENEZUELA COUP -- @MarcoRubio:
    "The world would support the Armed Forces in #Venezuela if they decide to protect the people & restore democracy by removing a dictator ... Soldiers eat out of garbage cans & their families go hungry in #Venezuela while Maduro & friends live like kings & block humanitarian aid ... 'whenever any form of govt becomes destructive..it is the right of the people to alter or to abolish it' Am. Dec of Independence #Venezuela".
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  6. #51
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    If anyone cares Rubio is echoing Tillerson who ;
    'Tillerson has repeatedly called for a change of government in Caracas since being appointed secretary of state in early 2017. Prior to entering politics, Tillerson had served as oil giant ExxonMobil’s CEO for over a decade. During much of that time, ExxonMobil was locked in a series of legal disputes with the governments of Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Last year, ExxonMobil’s legal efforts suffered a major setback, when a World Bank tribunal partially overturned a decision that had ordered Venezuela pay the company US1.6 billion in compensation for Chavez-era asset nationalisations. Later that year, the Trump administration announced it may consider a military option in Venezuela.' https://venezuelanalysis.com/News/13636

  7. #52
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Venezuela starts selling state-backed cryptocurrency. President Nicolás Maduro’s government says it will launch pre-sales of the “petro,” a digital currency backed by oil reserves. The US has warned potential investors that buying it could violate sanctions.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  8. #53
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    "It is no secret that Venezuela, unlike Mexico, Honduras, Colombia, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia, is targeted for regime change by the US precisely because of Venezuela’s leadership in resisting US hegemony and the imposition of the neoliberal model in Latin America. And of course, Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, attracting more unwanted attention from Washington." https://venezuelanalysis.com/ANALYSIS/13716

    Background to the OAS/Almagro controversy (All I know is meagre stuff via wiki, but it is clear he has upset his former Uruguayan comrades like Mujica the old left president) ;
    Almagro is a former Uruguayan minister under Mujica, who went so far as to publicly break ties in response .
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broad_Front_(Uruguay) The 'Broad Front' government is a coalition of left and centre , but Almagro apparently was a member of Mujica's own left party MPP (the biggest one in the coalition) and has been criticsed by that party itself also (see below)
    2015_11 http://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticia...e45462255.html (Florida spanish language website apparently)
    More detail http://www.contrainjerencia.com/?p=112045
    'The former president of Uruguay and current senator José Mujica broke relations with his former Foreign Minister Luis Almagro, current Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), by the letter in which he questioned the electoral process in Venezuela.
    "I regret the course you took and I know it is irreversible, so now I formally say goodbye and I say goodbye," says the letter that was announced today by the weekly "Búsqueda", from Montevideo.
    Mujica's criticism is added to that of its political sector, the Popular Participation Movement (MPP), which also includes Almagro, and on Saturday said that the letter from the head of the OAS "not only does not help the electoral process that lives the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela but it contributes to delegitimize it and to hinder the democratic coexistence in that country ".

    Mujica went further last year ; https://www.telesurtv.net/news/Accio...0430-0022.html
    'For the Uruguayan exmandatario, the actions of Almagro from the OAS are a danger not only for Venezuela but for the continent.
    Former President of Uruguay José "Pepe" Mujica said that the radical actions of the Venezuelan opposition and the actions of Luis Almagro from the Organization of American States (OAS) are a danger to the country and the region.
    In an interview with the Uruguayan portal Caras y Caretas, Mujica said that the Venezuelan right-wing acts in a radical and "irrational" manner. ' ..
    Last edited by GregTimo; 13-03-2018 at 09:17 AM.

  9. #54
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    "It is no secret that Venezuela, unlike Mexico, Honduras, Colombia, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia, is targeted for regime change by the US precisely because of Venezuela’s leadership in resisting US hegemony and the imposition of the neoliberal model in Latin America. And of course, Venezuela holds the largest oil reserves in the world, attracting more unwanted attention from Washington." https://venezuelanalysis.com/ANALYSIS/13716

    Someone should tell these VenAnalysis guys that the US is currently the world's largest producer of oil, and starting to export it. Plus, Mexico and Saudi are not exactly short on oil either.


    Background to the OAS/Almagro controversy (All I know is meagre stuff via wiki, but it is clear he has upset his former Uruguayan comrades like Mujica the old left president) ;
    Almagro is a former Uruguayan minister under Mujica, who went so far as to publicly break ties in response .


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Broad_Front_(Uruguay) The 'Broad Front' government is a coalition of left and centre , but Almagro apparently was a member of Mujica's own left party MPP (the biggest one in the coalition) and has been criticsed by that party itself also (see below)


    2015_11 http://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticia...e45462255.html (Florida spanish language website apparently)

    More detail http://www.contrainjerencia.com/?p=112045

    'The former president of Uruguay and current senator José Mujica broke relations with his former Foreign Minister Luis Almagro, current Secretary General of the Organization of American States (OAS), by the letter in which he questioned the electoral process in Venezuela.

    "I regret the course you took and I know it is irreversible, so now I formally say goodbye and I say goodbye," says the letter that was announced today by the weekly "Búsqueda", from Montevideo.

    Mujica's criticism is added to that of its political sector, the Popular Participation Movement (MPP), which also includes Almagro, and on Saturday said that the letter from the head of the OAS "not only does not help the electoral process that lives the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela but it contributes to delegitimize it and to hinder the democratic coexistence in that country ".

    Mujica went further last year ; https://www.telesurtv.net/news/Accio...0430-0022.html

    'For the Uruguayan exmandatario, the actions of Almagro from the OAS are a danger not only for Venezuela but for the continent.

    Former President of Uruguay José "Pepe" Mujica said that the radical actions of the Venezuelan opposition and the actions of Luis Almagro from the Organization of American States (OAS) are a danger to the country and the region.

    In an interview with the Uruguayan portal Caras y Caretas, Mujica said that the Venezuelan right-wing acts in a radical and "irrational" manner. ' ..
    I don't suppose it would be possible for Mujica to specify which radical actions he is referring to, and why?
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  10. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    I don't suppose it would be possible for Mujica to specify which radical actions he is referring to, and why?
    I cant speak for Mujica, but that would include the violent protests, assasinations , street murders, etc. The latter 2 have been going on a long time in Colombia next door (Much of the leadership of the left were wiped out some years back, and the most dangerous place to be a union activist also). Too depressing to go into but
    https://justiceforcolombia.org/about-colombia/ will give an idea of what happened there and Venezuela Analysis covers some of the stuff that happened in Venezuela itself

  11. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    I cant speak for Mujica, but that would include the violent protests, assasinations , street murders, etc. The latter 2 have been going on a long time in Colombia next door (Much of the leadership of the left were wiped out some years back, and the most dangerous place to be a union activist also). Too depressing to go into but
    https://justiceforcolombia.org/about-colombia/ will give an idea of what happened there and Venezuela Analysis covers some of the stuff that happened in Venezuela itself

    All well and good, but Mujica was referencing the right in Venezuela, not Columbia........
    Just to emphasize how out of date the VenAnalysis.........oil meme is.
    Today the US produces 75% of its oil and imports 25%. Ireland is more dependant on oil imports than the US.
    Venezuela supplies the US with 800,000 bd. That's 8% of imports, and 2% of consumption. Yet, if the chart below is accurate, US accounts for almost 50% on Ven production.
    Rexit 2: Geopolitics of Iran and Venezuela
    Reproduced from EIA; Chart: Axios Visuals
    A number of analysts quickly predicted that Tillerson's ouster and Mike Pompeo's ascendance will ensure a more aggressive U.S. posture against two major oil producers: Iran and Venezuela.
    Why it matters: Beyond the security and humanitarian considerations, potential new sanctions could also alter oil markets.
    “Pompeo’s selection augurs a period of higher risk and volatility in energy markets. Pompeo supports a more unilateral and confrontational approach toward Venezuela, Iran, and North Korea."
    — David Goldwyn, a top State energy official early in Hillary Clinton’s tenure, tells Axios
    Venezuela

    The country is another place to watch as plunging oil production has fueled an economic and humanitarian crisis.
    Check out the chart above that shows how the country's oil production plummeted in the last two years. As EIA notes here, by January of this year it was already another 300,000-plus barrels-per-day lower than in 2017.
    Rexit's potential impact on Venezuela:
    "Pompeo will likely align with more hawkish voices in the administration calling for stepped up sanctions, including those that would further restrict Venezuela's ability to export crude and further curtail the regime's revenue."
    — RBC Capital Markets' Helima Croft, in a note yesterday
    More: Read the full story here. And, S&P Global Platts breaks down the potential oil market and geopolitical effects of Tillerson's ouster here.


    Check this out.

    https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/...ge=oil_imports
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    All well and good, but Mujica was referencing the right in Venezuela, not Columbia........
    [/FONT][/COLOR]
    The 2 are linked, especially with the latest disinfo from Washington Post and Co trying to make Venezuela sound like a human rights disaster like Columbia (which is ignored)

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    [COLOR=#000000][FONT=Georgia] Just to emphasize how out of date the VenAnalysis.........oil meme is.
    That's still a lot of oil , never mind the drop. Corporations would like to get hands on it and to boot wipe out any possible threat of a return of social liberalism old style at home , etc . Demonising Venezuela's 'socialism' (which was only the social liberalism of sharing out oil wealth better basically ) . It is currently a mess for one reason and another too hard to disentangle and only time will tell how it turns out . But it's desired failure will help keep the Democratic party left in check at home is the thinking undoubtedly , not to mention any remaining threat from the Latin American left in general

    https://venezuelanalysis.com/ANALYSIS/13718
    Last edited by GregTimo; 15-03-2018 at 11:53 AM.

  13. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    The 2 are linked, especially with the latest disinfo from Washington Post and Co trying to make Venezuela sound like a human rights disaster like Columbia (which is ignored)


    That's still a lot of oil , never mind the drop. Corporations would like to get hands on it and to boot wipe out any possible threat of a return of social liberalism old style at home , etc . Demonising Venezuela's 'socialism' (which was only the social liberalism of sharing out oil wealth better basically ) . It is currently a mess for one reason and another too hard to disentangle and only time will tell how it turns out . But it's desired failure will help keep the Democratic party left in check at home is the thinking undoubtedly , not to mention any remaining threat from the Latin American left in general

    https://venezuelanalysis.com/ANALYSIS/13718
    Re the highlighted phrases, it's just a little more than 0.5% of daily global consumption, but nearly 50% of Venezuelan exports. Not to defend corrupt right wingers, but the left has failed miserably, partly through corruption, to fulfil its promises, and left the country worse off than when it was being exploited by the right.

    And just to kill the US/oil meme.......The US is now exporting more oil than Venezuela..........




    Oil chart of the day
    Data: Energy Information Administration; Chart: Axios Visuals
    My Axios colleague Amy Harder explains what's behind that chart, noting that America is exporting its oil at a record never before seen in history.
    Why it matters: That straight line upward, highlighted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration Wednesday, reflects one of the most dramatic turnarounds of an industry that affects so many corners of the American and global economies, from trade deficits to everyday drivers.
    By the numbers:

    • Fueled by fracking and horizontal drilling, America is on track to produce a record 10.7 million barrels of oil per day this year, surpassing its 1970 record of 9.6 million and more than double the production levels of a decade ago.
    • The EIA, the statistical arm of the Energy Department, predicts America is on track to become a net energy exporter in just four years.

    One level deeper: The chart shows yearly averages, and we can already expect 2018 to be another record-breaking year, with exports in the 1.5 million barrel-per-day range in recent weeks. Some weekly averages of oil exports in 2017 and this year have already broken the 2 million mark.
    Check out Amy's full story here.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  14. #59
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Old style social liberalism to social democracy did fine for decades in the West . Chavism didnt go much beyond sharing out the oil wealth better, so old style social liberalism plus bravado v the old imperialist enemy. The current crisis can be put down to various types of corruption basically. The question is how much is internal government corruption , how much is internal destabilization from the vested interests of the old power bases , the out and out criminal element (huge in that part of the world) and the external element . To complicate there is the problematic-ism of doing old style social liberalism to social democracy in one country (with an entrenched culture of corruption) at a time of a globalised economy , the effect of the drop in the price of oil due increased production from fracking , the randomness of life , bad luck and so on . A lot of fast juggling required in these hairy days
    Last edited by GregTimo; 18-03-2018 at 05:05 PM.

  15. #60
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    Fallacies and Inaccuracies About Venezuelan Migration
    With so many politically charged figures knocking around about Venezuelan emigration and a so-called “exodus”, who should we believe?
    https://venezuelanalysis.com/ANALYSIS/13722

    In the same vein; WSJ’s Epic Distortion of Colombian and Venezuelan Refugees https://venezuelanalysis.com/ANALYSIS/13670

    The seemingly unlikely figures for immigration into Venezuela is confirmed at the US site at 1.4 million for 2017 (the article above claiming 1 million from Colombia )
    http://www.un.org/en/development/des...Highlights.pdf
    The emigrant figures are hard to find as the UN now only mentions migrants it seems .

    The Irish Times latest https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-...sery-1.3436397
    is a copy of the New York Times one by same author https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/20/w...%2Fkirk-semple
    NYT yet another disinfo merchant sadly .
    Last edited by GregTimo; 25-03-2018 at 12:21 PM.

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