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Thread: Venezuelan Crisis

  1. #31
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    There are several wikis, this one shows how consistently out opinion polls were for the 2015 elections . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezu...election,_2015
    They look even further out currently https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezu...election,_2018 Abstentsionism was shown high
    There was one Chavista friendly poller though (hinterlaces) , they were out in the other direction https://informe21.com/politica/hinte...parlamentarias

  2. #32
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    When the clip happened back in the early 2000s why did Chavez not purge these elements? That and overly relying on oil were his two greatest mistakes.

  3. #33
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    There are several wikis, this one shows how consistently out opinion polls were for the 2015 elections . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezu...election,_2015
    They look even further out currently https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezu...election,_2018 Abstentsionism was shown high
    There was one Chavista friendly poller though (hinterlaces) , they were out in the other direction https://informe21.com/politica/hinte...parlamentarias
    Wikis TL;DR: You should quote/highlight from them whatever you want to emphasize. Scanned and saw no obvious headline or referral to absenteeism. And of course, the 2017 opinions expressed in the polls I referenced, have no correlation to any absenteeism past or future, and even if they had, correlation is not causation.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  4. #34
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Yes those polls were all over the place (not to mention so far out as to be lacking credibilty), but i suspect the ones showing high abstentionism/undecided+Other at least explains the volatility in large part (Others are not properly explained except to hint at other Chavista, I suspect the people doing that wiki dont like Chavism). Anyhow more analysis from a somewhat prolific ozzie site which seems quite aware of that volatilty (also indicated on the Venezuela analysis site itself)

    http://links.org.au/venezuela-chavis...onal-elections
    Last edited by GregTimo; 30-10-2017 at 12:40 PM.

  5. #35
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    I dont quite understand this anyhow

    http://therealnews.com/t2/story:2043...the-Economy%27

    And as usual the place with the latest news in English https://venezuelanalysis.com/

  6. #36
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Fracking and the fall in oil prices is pulling the rug out from under states held together by oil profits.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  7. #37
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    That's for sure . Over-reliance on oil was/is a big problem for the whole Bolivarian project .

    Anyhow a recent story ; This relays a familiar story of a bureaucratized left ruling party versus it's various left critics . Echoes of Chile's recent election https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13503

    And an August one from a seeming parallel reality a story of widespread hunger (affecting both Chavistas and the obvious right) back in August shows the stakes are no mere matter of academic interest but very real . Scary . I hope it's exagerated but I suspect it is quite real . The big increase in Social welfare and food stamps have just not been enough to offset the hyper-inflation . Can it turn around properly ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nezuela-hunger

    Why Chavismo won, again, in Venezuela's October elections. The (right wing)'opposition' defeated themselves in part , while Chavismism mobilised the abstaining base despite the severe economic problems. Here the increased social welfare probably did make a difference along with anti-corruption measures and reaction against US sanctions . He also says the food shortage problem is real but exaggerated
    https://thisishell.com/interviews/977-lucas-koerner
    Last edited by GregTimo; 21-11-2017 at 12:06 PM.

  8. #38
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Some controversy on Venezuela Analysis about the municipal elections last week which I'm not sure what to make of https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13545
    https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13549

    Disinfo ? in Irish Times today ? https://www.irishtimes.com/news/worl...nger-1.3332429
    The article looks a direct copy of the New Yorks Times piece illustrated with more tragic looking photos https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-starving.html
    These are going switch off some of the remaining solidarity for Maduro's government unless rebutted/explained I'm afraid . Reports on Venezuela Analysis have admitted there are food shortages but played them down

  9. #39
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    This can't go on. Socialists must demand an urgent and major change of course from the Maduro Government, and the replacement of Maduro as soon as possible by another or others within, or sympatetic to, the Bolivarian Movement.

    If that does not happen very soon then an opposition takeover is inevitable, and with it the consignment of Venezuela to the right's canon of cautionary tales.
    Last edited by Richardbouvet; 20-12-2017 at 03:28 PM.

  10. #40
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by Richardbouvet View Post
    This can't go on. Socialists must demand an urgent and major change of course from the Maduro Government, and the replacement of Maduro as soon as possible by another or others within, or sympatetic to, the Bolivarian Movement.

    If that does not happen very soon then an opposition takeover is inevitable, and with it the consignment of Venezuela to the right's canon of cautionary tales.
    I just dont know what to make of all the competing spin and disinfo . As a fan of the old Labour style broad left, I would most of all like to see the PSUV succeed, but Maduro has not been impressive and there has been undoubted corruption of a bureaucrat class sadly . But as the saying goes "It's not over til it's over" and I have to hope the 'anti-corruption' drives are genuine and the food shortages really are exaggerated

  11. #41
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    The number of dead quoted here, if correct, is just about 1,000 less than the number cited for the retake of Raqqa from ISIS.

    ON THE WORLD STAGE-- "Venezuela's Brutal Crime Crackdown: Executions, Machetes and 8,292 Dead," by WSJ's Juan Forero and Maolis Castro in Barlovento, Venezuela: "The young men had already been tortured at an army base when soldiers piled them into two jeeps and transported them to a wooded area just outside the Venezuelan capital. Stumbling in the dark, with T-shirts pulled over their faces and hands tied behind their backs, they were steered to an open pit. Soldiers then used machetes to deliver blow after blow to the base of their necks. Most suffered gaping wounds that killed them before they hit the ground. ... Prosecutors, criminologists and human-rights groups say it was only one of many recurring and escalating lethal attacks carried out by police or soldiers." http://on.wsj.com/2BSudvY


    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  12. #42
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    That smacks of complete fake news. The inability to stop crime rising was one of the main failures of the PSUV . So now they are transformed into Stalinists 30s style ? It is not believable . Their communist party is now in defacto opposition to the PSUV by the way . All this proves is that there is a deliberate fake news campaign being engineered from the US. We are swamped in fake news , every angle's spinning their own, sickening https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13537

  13. #43
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    That smacks of complete fake news. The inability to stop crime rising was one of the main failures of the PSUV . So now they are transformed into Stalinists 30s style ? It is not believable . Their communist party is now in defacto opposition to the PSUV by the way . All this proves is that there is a deliberate fake news campaign being engineered from the US. We are swamped in fake news , every angle's spinning their own, sickening https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13537
    The quoted report was by the WSJ, not WaPo. Allowing that the WSJ has been deteriorating under Murdoch ownership, there has always been a clear distinction between it's hard right editorial page, and it's first class news operation, so I'm impressed by your certain conviction that the report is fake news. The phrase "not always right, but never in doubt" comes to mind.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  14. #44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    The quoted report was by the WSJ, not WaPo. Allowing that the WSJ has been deteriorating under Murdoch ownership, there has always been a clear distinction between it's hard right editorial page, and it's first class news operation, so I'm impressed by your certain conviction that the report is fake news. The phrase "not always right, but never in doubt" comes to mind.
    I would never even want to be 'always right' and I am often in doubt . People who have been following Venezuela for years will be incredulous at that report . It may have gone corrupt to an extent, incompetently led over the years (at some levels), etc (which seems to happen to most power sadly), but that it has suddenly gone hardcore Stalinist ? They certainly needed to get tough on crime though. I suspect the report is a distortion of gangland criminal activity in Venezuela . It is all the more a disgrace that a supposed quality paper is spreading out and out fake news

    https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13548

    The alleged atrocity story was in fact covered back in November By Venezuela Analysis https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13507

    1000s probably have been killed by gangsters not the police and army , though corrupt police have been a long time problem in the country (a parallel police force was set up to try to reduce it) https://venezuelanalysis.com/tag/crime
    Last edited by GregTimo; 27-12-2017 at 09:34 AM.

  15. #45
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    I would never even want to be 'always right' and I am often in doubt . People who have been following Venezuela for years will be incredulous at that report . It may have gone corrupt to an extent, incompetently led over the years (at some levels), etc (which seems to happen to most power sadly), but that it has suddenly gone hardcore Stalinist ? They certainly needed to get tough on crime though. I suspect the report is a distortion of gangland criminal activity in Venezuela . It is all the more a disgrace that a supposed quality paper is spreading out and out fake news

    https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13548

    The alleged atrocity story was in fact covered back in November By Venezuela Analysis https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/13507

    1000s probably have been killed by gangsters not the police and army , though corrupt police have been a long time problem in the country (a parallel police force was set up to try to reduce it) https://venezuelanalysis.com/tag/crime
    There hasn't been a good news story out of Venezuela in how many years? Yet you are confident that the latest bad news is fake. That's what happens to people such as yourself who seek out news from a left (or right) leaning perspective. It's called confirmation bias, and its a big problem. You would do better to follow the advice of WaPo Watergate reporter Carl Bernstein and try to learn "the best available version of the truth".
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

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