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Thread: Venezuelan Crisis

  1. #31
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    There are several wikis, this one shows how consistently out opinion polls were for the 2015 elections . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezu...election,_2015
    They look even further out currently https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezu...election,_2018 Abstentsionism was shown high
    There was one Chavista friendly poller though (hinterlaces) , they were out in the other direction https://informe21.com/politica/hinte...parlamentarias

  2. #32
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    When the clip happened back in the early 2000s why did Chavez not purge these elements? That and overly relying on oil were his two greatest mistakes.
    The United Irishman. Updated 5/2/14

  3. #33
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Quote Originally Posted by GregTimo View Post
    There are several wikis, this one shows how consistently out opinion polls were for the 2015 elections . https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezu...election,_2015
    They look even further out currently https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Venezu...election,_2018 Abstentsionism was shown high
    There was one Chavista friendly poller though (hinterlaces) , they were out in the other direction https://informe21.com/politica/hinte...parlamentarias
    Wikis TL;DR: You should quote/highlight from them whatever you want to emphasize. Scanned and saw no obvious headline or referral to absenteeism. And of course, the 2017 opinions expressed in the polls I referenced, have no correlation to any absenteeism past or future, and even if they had, correlation is not causation.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  4. #34
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Yes those polls were all over the place (not to mention so far out as to be lacking credibilty), but i suspect the ones showing high abstentionism/undecided+Other at least explains the volatility in large part (Others are not properly explained except to hint at other Chavista, I suspect the people doing that wiki dont like Chavism). Anyhow more analysis from a somewhat prolific ozzie site which seems quite aware of that volatilty (also indicated on the Venezuela analysis site itself)

    http://links.org.au/venezuela-chavis...onal-elections
    Last edited by GregTimo; 30-10-2017 at 01:40 PM.

  5. #35
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    I dont quite understand this anyhow

    http://therealnews.com/t2/story:2043...the-Economy%27

    And as usual the place with the latest news in English https://venezuelanalysis.com/

  6. #36
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    Fracking and the fall in oil prices is pulling the rug out from under states held together by oil profits.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  7. #37
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    Default Re: Venezuelan Crisis

    That's for sure . Over-reliance on oil was/is a big problem for the whole Bolivarian project .

    Anyhow a recent story ; This relays a familiar story of a bureaucratized left ruling party versus it's various left critics . Echoes of Chile's recent election https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/13503

    And an August one from a seeming parallel reality a story of widespread hunger (affecting both Chavistas and the obvious right) back in August shows the stakes are no mere matter of academic interest but very real . Scary . I hope it's exagerated but I suspect it is quite real . The big increase in Social welfare and food stamps have just not been enough to offset the hyper-inflation . Can it turn around properly ?
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nezuela-hunger

    Why Chavismo won, again, in Venezuela's October elections. The (right wing)'opposition' defeated themselves in part , while Chavismism mobilised the abstaining base despite the severe economic problems. Here the increased social welfare probably did make a difference along with anti-corruption measures and reaction against US sanctions . He also says the food shortage problem is real but exaggerated
    https://thisishell.com/interviews/977-lucas-koerner
    Last edited by GregTimo; Yesterday at 01:06 PM.

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