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Thread: Meath east byelection

  1. #1
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    Default Meath east byelection

    Mairead McGuinness intends contest according to local radio this evening apparently. Must be held before June I think.

    Last time out




    Byrne will be hopeful but even in Government it's hard to see FG lose out in the circumstances.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Could have sworn I started this thread already?


    FG will probably keep the seat given the emotions involved

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    you were a wee with quick off the mark, given the emotions involved as you say.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. FIVE View Post
    you were a wee with quick off the mark, given the emotions involved as you say.
    Phew, I'm not losing it then!

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Looks like Mcguinness would win it if she runs.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    of course the time between now and polling is an age politics. Not pushed so long as Byrne is kept out.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    I'll try to make some sense out of this.

    Meath East in 2011, FG 40.9%, Labour 21%, FF 19.6%, SF 8.9%, others 9.6%.

    Off National figures of FG 36.1%, Labour 19.4%, FF 17.4%, SF 9.9%, others 17.2%.

    Adjusting for local conditions using the last Red C poll FG 28%, FF 20%, SF 17%, Labour 14%,and Independents at 21% as against the national average in 2011. It should pan out something like this.

    FG 32%

    FF 23%

    SF 16%

    Labour 16%

    Others 13%

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    I'll try to make some sense out of this.

    Meath East in 2011, FG 40.9%, Labour 21%, FF 19.6%, SF 8.9%, others 9.6%.

    Off National figures of FG 36.1%, Labour 19.4%, FF 17.4%, SF 9.9%, others 17.2%.

    Adjusting for local conditions using the last Red C poll FG 28%, FF 20%, SF 17%, Labour 14%,and Independents at 21% as against the national average in 2011. It should pan out something like this.

    FG 32%

    FF 23%

    SF 16%

    Labour 16%

    Others 13%
    My guess is this traditionally FF heartland will return 1 FG 1 FF and 1 SF or Independent in 2016, which as long as the independent would not be ex FF/ex FG, should broadly reflect this increasing national trend. I cannot see Hannigan getting re-elected. Somebody has to pay the price, and while a FG TD may be edged out to FF, those Labour votes from the commuter class have to go somewhere. Lots of Dubs living up here now. No way Labour would have had a chance in the past, let alone SF or IND.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    My guess is this traditionally FF heartland will return 1 FG 1 FF and 1 SF or Independent in 2016, which as long as the independent would not be ex FF/ex FG, should broadly reflect this increasing national trend. I cannot see Hannigan getting re-elected. Somebody has to pay the price, and while a FG TD may be edged out to FF, those Labour votes from the commuter class have to go somewhere. Lots of Dubs living up here now. No way Labour would have had a chance in the past, let alone SF or IND.
    I was thinking of the by-election, but now that you mention it the fight for third should be very interesting.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Quote Originally Posted by Shaadi View Post
    I was thinking of the by-election, but now that you mention it the fight for third should be very interesting.
    Ah the By election? Who knows..the smart money at the moment says either FF or FG. Makes little difference except that a SF or independent win could be a political set back for the government. Everyone remembers how important the by election win of Pearse Doherty was in late 2010. A by election defeat for the govt. and a referendum defeat on the seanad in the run up the locals would be more than welcome.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    Ah the By election? Who knows..the smart money at the moment says either FF or FG. Makes little difference except that a SF or independent win could be a political set back for the government. Everyone remembers how important the by election win of Pearse Doherty was in late 2010. A by election defeat for the govt. and a referendum defeat on the seanad in the run up the locals would be more than welcome.

    Meath is far, far too conservative to vote in a Shinner in a bye-election. FG have the numbers and the sympathy to win this. It seems they have the candidate too, especially if the odious Byrne is the Traitors Party candidate.

    FG to hold it.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Our General Election thread.

    http://www.politicalworld.org/showthread.php?p=124729

    This is commuter belt land.

    Is there any chance of a FG or Labour candidate being returned ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Would be surprised if they didn't hold it but what do I know. Keep Byrne out

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Quote Originally Posted by Slim Buddha View Post
    Meath is far, far too conservative to vote in a Shinner in a bye-election. FG have the numbers and the sympathy to win this. It seems they have the candidate too, especially if the odious Byrne is the Traitors Party candidate.

    FG to hold it.
    Peadar Toibin broke that trend with his landslide victory 2 years ago. Besides everybody expects FG to hold this seat. I was reflecting on a possible SF breakthrough in Meath east next time out at Hannigans expense.

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    Default Re: Meath east byelection

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    Peadar Toibin broke that trend with his landslide victory 2 years ago. Besides everybody expects FG to hold this seat. I was reflecting on a possible SF breakthrough in Meath east next time out at Hannigans expense.
    Its heavily FF land all around that area. FF have always traditionally gotten a lot of support in Meath and families tend to vote for them as their parents did and so on and so forth. At least that is what I found when I was raised in Longwood...
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

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