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Thread: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

  1. #2716
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Another survey. Always hard to know if people felt safe to give their real view but for what it is worth, interesting -

    Fabbe: Beyond challenging the popular preconception that most refugees want to go to Europe, our research also produced some interesting findings about what we call “side taking” in the conflict. We cannot speak to the balance of support for different actors in the civil war at the national level, as the majority of our respondents are from Aleppo (see Fig. 1). If we were to have conducted this research in Lebanon or Jordan, we would have likely found very different results.
    Two interesting things emerge about perceptions of security and “side taking.” First, more of our respondents believe that ISIS is the primary threat to the future of Syria as a country ahead of the Assad regime (~62% vs. ~37%), but the reverse holds when we ask about personal threats (~52% Assad vs. ~43% ISIS). Second, we found surprising the significant number of respondents who reported that no party to the conflict represents their interests.
    This was an unusual poll question, but revealing -
    Perhaps most challenging for transitional justice is the desire for extremely harsh punishments for parties to the conflict of all affiliations.

    • 19.66 percent of respondents think that “those who fought with the regime” should be executed
    • Around 9 percent of respondents think that “members of the regime” should be executed
    • 37 percent of respondents think that “opposition fighters that have killed civilians” should be executed
    • 49.47 percent of respondents think that “those who fought with ISIS” should be executed
    • 11.7 percent of respondents think that “members of local militias not clearly affiliated with political goals” should be executed.

    For example, nearly 30 percent of respondents said that their neighborhoods were barrel bombed, and a little over 14 percent said people from their neighborhood were killed by these bombs. To give you a sense of the suffering people have endured, the following figures are illustrative:

    • 23 percent said people from their neighborhood were killed from shelling
    • 14 percent said people from their neighborhood were killed from rocket attack
    • 14 percent said people from their neighborhood were killed from suicide bombing
    • A smaller percentage (less than 1 percent) said people from their neighborhood were killed by insurgent fighting, sniper fire, torture or assassination
    • .

    https://www.newsdeeply.com/syria/com...efugees-want-2
    Last edited by C. Flower; 19-06-2017 at 09:26 PM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  2. #2717
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    The same poll (see post above) also said that over 90% of the Aleppo refugees want Syria to stay as a unitary state - however the reality on the ground currently is territorial split. The Syrian state holds much of the West and the main cities - thus most of the population. There is a Kurdish territory ine the north linked to that in Iraq. The area next to the Israeli - occupied Golan Heights is held by a mix of jihadist groups who are assisted by the Israelis, contested by Hezbollah, who hold territory along the Lebanon border. Opposition-held areas are Idlib (jihadist dominated) , north west Syria, the South, the south --- north of Jordan and Saudi Arabia where US-run bases are, and the area subject of the DIA cable on the Deir el Ezzor oil rich / Euphrates route area is ISIS-held apart from the town itself. Big gains recently made by the Syrian state (Russian backed) and YPG/opposition (US backed) at the expense of ISIS territory. Russia and Syria accuse the US of protecting ISIS / letting them leave positions. The currently contested US base at al Tanf just inside the Iraqi border at the SE is shown. The US has established bases in Syria without government permission in the north close to the Turkish border, at the east close to Iraq and south, also close to Iraq (al-Tanf).

    https://twitter.com/Nawaroliver


    Last edited by C. Flower; 20-06-2017 at 11:02 AM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  3. #2718
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    US shot down an Iranian drone in Syria yesterday.
    As a general rule the most successful man in life is the man who has the best information.

  4. #2719
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Count Bobulescu View Post
    US shot down an Iranian drone in Syria yesterday.
    Just look at that map. What could possibly go wrong ?
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  5. #2720
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Today there is a report that the US says it has advance intelligence of a planned chemical attack by Syria.

    Also today, Seymour Hersh's report on how and why Syria was bombed in punishment for a "chemical attack" at Khan Sheikhoun, rebel-held, that did not take place. Hersh says that the US had been told in advance of the Khan Sheikhoun attack, which was on a 'jihadist' headquarters located over various shops where various ordinary insecticides and chlorine based cleaning agents were stocked.

    Now, I really don't know about that aspect of the report. From my reading, the one thing I'm sure about was that the decision to bomb was taken by Trump without him having evidence that a sarin bomb had been dropped.

    https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...-Red-Line.html
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  6. #2721
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    The UK also lining up to bomb Syria. All the well-known supporters of freedom and democracy are queuing up.

    All we need now is for Assad the butcher to conveniently let off a Sarin bomb somewhere. Of course, he has every incentive to do so.... (rolls eyes!)

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7809796.html
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  7. #2722
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    A summing up of some of the many alleged incidents of chemical weapon use by ISIS and Al Nusra.

    https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...r-Arsenal.html

    there are strong indicators that the jihadist militia al-Nusra also has been working for quite some time on obtaining sarin. On June 20, 2013 analysts from the American Defense Intelligence Agency sent a secret report to then-Deputy Director, David Shedd that started with the dramatic sentence: “al-Nusra maintained a sarin production cell: its programme is the most advanced sarin plot since al-Qaida’s pre-9/11 effort”.The 5-page briefing, the existence of which was eventually confirmed by the Obama White House, went on to state: “arrests in Iraq and Turkey have slowed the cell’s operations. Nevertheless we asses the situation as such that they will continue their efforts to produce chemical weapons.”
    The actual IS poison gas attack in Mosul is not a singular occurrence, as a study by IHS Conflict Monitor demonstrates. Since the first incident in July 2014, Conflict Monitor has recorded at least 71 allegations of the Islamic State using CW -(41 in Iraq) - and 30 in Syria, states Columb Track, chief analyst of the London-based think tank. Most of the attacks happened in and around Mosul. Until the beginning of the reconquest offensive, the city, still home to one million long suffering residents, 100,000 of them as involuntary “human shields” for the terrorists, was the center of the Islamic State’s chemical weapons production, states Strack.
    Only “New York Times” wrote about the IHS investigation, which was largely ignored otherwise.
    One of these attacks is also mentioned in a report, dated 2016, and produced by a collaborative investigative panel formed by the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons and the United Nations. It states: “There was sufficient information to conclude that Islamic State militants were the only entity with the ability, capability, motive and the means to use sulfur mustard gas in Marea on 21 August, 2015.”
    IS had used 130mm caliber artillery grenades filled with toxic gas to shell the Syrian city, 80 kilometers from Aleppo. 50 civilians were injured during the attack.
    The American aid organization Human Rights Watch (HRW) already reported IS poison gas attacks in the Mosul region in autumn of last year. They state that grenades were fired on September 20th and 21st and again on October 6th and 10th, aimed at the town of Qayyarah and the nearby air force base used by the American Air Force as well as French and Australian forces. Several residents and local militia members noted the characteristic smell of garlic and complained about typical sulphur mustard symptoms. Due to the ongoing fighting, the injured could not be taken to hospitals. Therefore toxicological confirmation of the use of the suspected chemical weapon could not be produced
    .
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  8. #2723
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The UK also lining up to bomb Syria. All the well-known supporters of freedom and democracy are queuing up.

    All we need now is for Assad the butcher to conveniently let off a Sarin bomb somewhere. Of course, he has every incentive to do so.... (rolls eyes!)

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7809796.html
    It has all the hallmarks of pre Iraq invasion.
    Happiness is an inside job.

  9. #2724
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Trow View Post
    It has all the hallmarks of pre Iraq invasion.
    Absolutely - Trump and NATO yesterday slavering to have a go.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/w...ssad-ckr9x8d53
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  10. #2725
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post

    Also today, Seymour Hersh's report on how and why Syria was bombed in punishment for a "chemical attack" at Khan Sheikhoun, rebel-held, that did not take place. Hersh says that the US had been told in advance of the Khan Sheikhoun attack, which was on a 'jihadist' headquarters located over various shops where various ordinary insecticides and chlorine based cleaning agents were stocked.

    Now, I really don't know about that aspect of the report. From my reading, the one thing I'm sure about was that the decision to bomb was taken by Trump without him having evidence that a sarin bomb had been dropped.

    https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/...-Red-Line.html
    The level of utter nonsense that Hersh is capable of writing is breathtaking.

    It has been confirmed by the OPCW that the people in Khan Sheikhoun were killed by Sarin.

    Not because the Assadists bombed someones container of domestic chlorine.

    https://www.opcw.org/news/article/op...-4-april-2017/
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  11. #2726
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    The level of utter nonsense that Hersh is capable of writing is breathtaking.

    It has been confirmed by the OPCW that the people in Khan Sheikhoun were killed by Sarin.

    Not because the Assadists bombed someones container of domestic chlorine.

    https://www.opcw.org/news/article/op...-4-april-2017/
    I agree that the 'weedkiller in the shop' theory is anything but persuasive.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  12. #2727
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    The level of utter nonsense that Hersh is capable of writing is breathtaking.

    "It has been confirmed by the OPCW that the people in Khan Sheikhoun were killed by Sarin."

    Not because the Assadists bombed someones container of domestic chlorine.

    https://www.opcw.org/news/article/op...-4-april-2017/
    "It has been confirmed by the OPCW that the people in Khan Sheikhoun were killed by Sarin." A wonderful example of why the passive voice is problematic.

    To this day, nobody from the OPCW has gone near either Khan Sheikhoun or the Syrian base from which the plane allegedly flew, despite invitation from the Syrian government.

    So just how did they determine this? By going over evidence carefully packaged by Al Nusra, and, of course, "eyewitness accounts" likewise.

    -AMH-

  13. #2728
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Absolutely - Trump and NATO yesterday slavering to have a go.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/w...ssad-ckr9x8d53
    Well, not quite. The latest from the Trumpistas is that the Syrian regime, trembling in fear of Trump, has called off the Syrian gas attack they had planned, and Trump has celebrated another victory.

    They slaver all right, but the bark seems louder than the bite. After that Syrian plane was shot down, and the Russians announced that they would be targeting any US planes thenceforth flying over Syrian government territory, that seems to have had as it were a bracing effect.

    Meanwhile the Syrian regime has thoroughly won the race for the border, totally blocking the "Syrian rebels" from any share of the deflating ISIS pie. Not only that, but the Assad forces have blocked any further progress south by the US paratrooperss at the Tabqadam west of Raqqah, and now that ISIS has abandoned East Aleppo, they will likely soon move to block Raqqah from the south also.

    And the Syrian rebels are trying a truly desperate last throw, namely an attempted advance on Damascus more or less from the Golan Heights, directly aided by the Israeli airforce bombing the Syrian army. Even that has gotten nowhere basically.

    -AMH-

  14. #2729
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    There are also photographs of the crater @AMH.

    The fact that the Russians blocked a JIM study that would have tried to identify the perpetrator does not look too good for them.

    https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-in...uth-propaganda

    On the face of it it was a Syrian attack (of which the US was forewarned) with Russian complicity. Why take that chance for a few civilian deaths and risk of open war with the US ? Perhaps for the wider terror effect on the civilian population in an attempt to reduce support for opposition militias ?

    If it was a fit-up (the only other explanation, as I don't think the agri-store theory is at all probable) it would have had to have been a very sophisticated one, in which presumably sarin with hexamine was used (that aspect was hardly faked ?).
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  15. #2730
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post

    So just how did they determine this? By going over evidence carefully packaged by Al Nusra, and, of course, "eyewitness accounts" likewise.
    If you had read the article you would have understood how they did this instead of posting *bs.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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