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Thread: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

  1. #2101
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    Some very odd stuff taking place in East Aleppo that I have no explanation for.

    The As-Sadists are gobbling up huge amounts of territory south of Al Bab from ISIS virtually uncontested even though this has pretty much besieged the Daesh in Al Bab and adjoining areas they still hold. At the same time the Daesh are defending Al Bab from the FSA tooth and nail.

    Rumours now swirling on the internet that Tadif will be evacuated by ISIS and their HQ and fighters relocated to the centre of Al Bab. In this case the As_sadists would get Tadif on a platter. These are just rumours so far, of course ...

    At the same time, and even more puzzling, the campaign by the FAS/TKF to take Al Bab has virtually ground to a halt in recent days. I know that every building in the place is IED'd and that there are extensive tunnel networks, etc. etc. but still ... they should be making greater progress.

    Something very funny is going on ....
    Heh. I have no trouble accounting for the successes of the Syrian military and the failures of the "FSA."

    If ISIS takes seriously the Turkish/Russian boundary line running between Tadif and Al Bab, it is only sensible on their part to withdraw from fighting the Syrian army, since the Russians apparently now don't want the Syrians to take Al Bab, and concentrate on bashing the feeble "FSA." Of course, ISIS would be gambling that the Syrians will do what the Russians tell them, but that's the only practical way they could actually hang on to Al Bab at this point.

    -AMH-

  2. #2102
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    Heh. I have no trouble accounting for the successes of the Syrian military and the failures of the "FSA."

    If ISIS takes seriously the Turkish/Russian boundary line running between Tadif and Al Bab, it is only sensible on their part to withdraw from fighting the Syrian army, since the Russians apparently now don't want the Syrians to take Al Bab, and concentrate on bashing the feeble "FSA." Of course, ISIS would be gambling that the Syrians will do what the Russians tell them, but that's the only practical way they could actually hang on to Al Bab at this point.

    -AMH-
    This makes absolutely no sense.

    There is no way that ISIS can hold onto a surrounded AL Bab, where they cannot be resupplied, for any length of time. It is only a matter of time (1 week/two weeks) before it falls if the FSA go about the business. (Or are you suggesting that the Russians/As-Sadists will resupply and support them from the south?) So it is ridiculous to suggest they are handing over territory to the regime and isolating themselves in Al Bab in order to defend Al Bab. And what is the strategic or other significance of a besieged Al Bab in any case? It has none. A little black dot in a sea or red and green for a week or two .. and then the black disappears.

    The As-Sadists are having what you call success against ISIS in north Aleppo simply because ISIS is not resisting them. Why this is remains a mystery. Particularly as they have fought the FSA for every inch of territory there for months now.

    I'm not sure, btw, why you consider the FSA so "feeble". It is still in the field through Syria after 5 years of fighting .. despite the best efforts of the Russian air force, the Iranians and their multiplicity of surrogate Shiite militias, etc. If it was so "feeble" it would have been defeated years ago.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  3. #2103
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post

    The Left who idealise the internercine carnage in Syria as "the Revolution" and the Left that idealises Assad's regime have both sold them out.
    Stupid. When a government attacks it's people and you do not support the resistance you are de facto supporting the government. That's a fact. So you like to pretend that you are neutral in the conflict but in effect you support Assad. Because that is where the ruling power is. It's like anything bad done by a government in a country .. laws, actions, whatever. If you say it's not my business and I don't have a position one way or another then you are in effect supporting the bad. Because you leave the power be.

    Whenever there is a situation where the powerful try to crush the powerless and you stand aside then you are supporting the powerful. Simple. And it's doesn't matter how much you moan about the people being crushed not standing for working class rule or whatever...
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  4. #2104
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    This makes absolutely no sense.

    There is no way that ISIS can hold onto a surrounded AL Bab, where they cannot be resupplied, for any length of time. It is only a matter of time (1 week/two weeks) before it falls if the FSA go about the business. (Or are you suggesting that the Russians/As-Sadists will resupply and support them from the south?) So it is ridiculous to suggest they are handing over territory to the regime and isolating themselves in Al Bab in order to defend Al Bab. And what is the strategic or other significance of a besieged Al Bab in any case? It has none. A little black dot in a sea or red and green for a week or two .. and then the black disappears.

    The As-Sadists are having what you call success against ISIS in north Aleppo simply because ISIS is not resisting them. Why this is remains a mystery. Particularly as they have fought the FSA for every inch of territory there for months now.

    I'm not sure, btw, why you consider the FSA so "feeble". It is still in the field through Syria after 5 years of fighting .. despite the best efforts of the Russian air force, the Iranians and their multiplicity of surrogate Shiite militias, etc. If it was so "feeble" it would have been defeated years ago.
    The FSA is perhaps one thing, though not a terribly impressive thing, the "FSA" the Turks have cobbled together as a local quisling force in the Turkish occupation zone another. They have demonstrated their ineptitude and preference for running over fighting repeatedly during the Al Bab siege, which would have gotten nowhere without stiffening by Turkish tanks and Turkish, Russian and American bombings.

    And al Bab, I do believe the second largest city after Raqqah ISIS has in Syria, isn't cut off yet, and if ISIS can continue inflicting humiliating defeats on the "FSA" would not be, if the Syria army stays south of the Turkish/Russian demarcation line. You seem to be confirming Southfront's claims that ISIS has kicked out the "FSA" band that snuck into Al Bab from the west, the main front line for a month having been northeast of Al Bab.

    -AMH-

  5. #2105
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    Stupid. When a government attacks it's people and you do not support the resistance you are de facto supporting the government. That's a fact. So you like to pretend that you are neutral in the conflict but in effect you support Assad. Because that is where the ruling power is. It's like anything bad done by a government in a country .. laws, actions, whatever. If you say it's not my business and I don't have a position one way or another then you are in effect supporting the bad. Because you leave the power be.

    Whenever there is a situation where the powerful try to crush the powerless and you stand aside then you are supporting the powerful. Simple. And it's doesn't matter how much you moan about the people being crushed not standing for working class rule or whatever...
    No, I'm not at all neutral in the conflict. I am very clear about who I support. I am unsure about who you support because other than a generic "Revolution" which you know quite well to consist of many forces and political standpoints that are opposed to and fighting each other you have given no indication.

    Billions of cash have been poured into arming and training these "powerless" fighting groups. The idea that they represent the powerless is a joke. They represent their paymasters. The future they offer Syria is a failed state, preyed on by oil firms and local bandit militias.
    When progressive activists or fighters are confronted with militias armed and trained by the CIA who threaten them and/or kill them, whose side are you on ? When groups who take slaves and run crypto-fascist medieval-style regimes on their territory are in conflict with people who want a non sectarian government, or basic sovereignty for their ethnic group, where do you stand ? When you support groups armed to the teeth by the Saudi and Qatari governments, whose aim it is to impose a Sharia regime and to drive out Shia, Christians, Yadzidi and so on from their homes, where do you stand ? I welcome these reactionary tools of imperialism being crushed by whoever has the means to crush them. Assad will never succeed in fully defeating them, or allowing Syria to stand with the Palestinians, because he won't and can't rally the working class behind him, and can't overcome the sectarian divides in the region. Only "stupid" revolution can do that.

    Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian

    Yes, that all sounds right-as long as it is clear that "the Syrian people protesting against Salafists, sectarianism & Assad" are largely a subset, the best subset, of the radical youth you describe. In Tunisia and Egypt, the "Arab Spring" was powered by working class mobilization-but nonetheless went bad in Egypt due to the absence of revolutionary leadership, and simply sputtered out in Tunisia. Not in Syria or Libya, where it went bad quicker and worse.

    -AMH-

    They are. I'm sure people of the same stance and character can be found fighting ISIS, or in Assad-controlled territory, trying to organise socialist groups with the ultimate aim of working class control of Syria.

    The Left who idealise the internercine carnage in Syria as "the Revolution" and the Left that idealises Assad's regime have both sold them out.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 16-02-2017 at 09:51 PM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  6. #2106
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    The As_sadists have retaken Palmyra. No little assistance provided by the USAF.

    The YPG is in the process of handing over huge swathes of territory they captured west of the Euphrates to the As_sadists.

    As someone remarked online, "all those blathering on about regime change in Syria have somehow remarkably managed to miss the actual intervention."
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  7. #2107
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    The most important military event of the last week was the Syrian army managing to seize enough ISIS territory to link up with the YPG, therefore rendering the Turkish capture of Al Bab militarily irrelevant and meaningless, and, commercially at least, linking the two areas of North Syria under Kurdish rule together.

    Now, if the Turks want to be involved in the assault on Raqqah, that could only be with YPG and Assad permission. And if they seriously want to take back Manbij, they would be likely facing the Syrian army and the Russian airforce. So they won't.

    The YPG is clearly assuming that Trump and Putin are now more or less friends & allies. It may well turn out that as soon as Raqqah falls, they will be friends & allies, together with Assad and the Turks, vs. them.

    And if anyone has any doubt that Assad has won this stage of the Syrian Civil War, it is time for such illusions to be abandoned.

    The Turks are losers at the moment, but when the next stage of the Syrian Civil War starts up, everyone against the Kurds, they will be happy. Not long from now, the YPG leaders may find themselves acquainted with the conditions in Syrian prisons, which I hear are not very nice.

    -AMH-

  8. #2108
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    I wrote...

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    ...

    Now, if the Turks want to be involved in the assault on Raqqah, that could only be with YPG and Assad permission. And if they seriously want to take back Manbij, they would be likely facing the Syrian army and the Russian airforce. So they won't....
    And it turns out there is now a US base at Manbij, which according to the Kurds was put in place specifically to keep the Turks from storming Manbij.

    https://southfront.org/us-special-fo...n-syria-video/

    Is Southfront a reliable source? Well, Sam Lord's unsourced last posting matches a posting on the Southfront site for today suspiciously well.

    https://southfront.org/us-backed-syr...o-syrian-army/

    I suppose that could be just a coincidence...

    I particularly liked a quote on the Southfront posting from an interview an "SDF" spokesman gave to a Russian TV channel back in August.

    "We will not unite with the Syrian army against ISIS because our forces operate only with the forces of the international coalition led by the United States. We are partners of the United States and the coalition. They make decisions."

    Seems the YPG have changed their mind on that since then.

    I keep saying that the YPG are basically tools of US imperialism at this point. Nice to have public confirmation of that from the YPG/"SDF" themselves.

    Of course with Trump in, collaboration with the Russians and Assad is now more kosher.

    -amh-

  9. #2109
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    CJTFOIR tweet:

    CJTFOIR supported partner forces by destroying an ISIS vehicle near Palmyra, Syria on Feb 22 2017
    When queried as to who exactly these partner forces were they claimed it was "a poor choice of words".

    I have seen recent video of US forces deployed in Manjib. Also of Russian convoys going in. So the Yanks, Russians, and YPG are all there together. No doubt Assad forces as well.

    All this cannot simply be put down to Trump. I have been pointing out for up to two years now the way the wind was blowing in Syria.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  10. #2110
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    The most important military event of the last week was the Syrian army managing to seize enough ISIS territory to link up with the YPG, therefore rendering the Turkish capture of Al Bab militarily irrelevant and meaningless, and, commercially at least, linking the two areas of North Syria under Kurdish rule together.
    The "Syrian army" seized nothing in north Aleppo. All this territory was surrendered without any sort of a fight by ISIS in order to put a buffer between themselves and the FSA. The same with Tadif.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  11. #2111
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    The "Syrian army" seized nothing in north Aleppo. All this territory was surrendered without any sort of a fight by ISIS in order to put a buffer between themselves and the FSA. The same with Tadif.
    Basically was surrendered, for the simple reason that they were about to be surrounded and trapped if they hadn't. Which is also why all of a sudden after months of failures and embarrassing fiascos the Turks and their pet "FSA" were suddenly able to finally get Al Bab--only because the Syrians were following Russian orders not to seize it first themselves.

    But... to put a buffer between them and the fearsome fighters of the north Aleppo "FSA"? That is the most hilarious thing you have ever posted, and I seriously doubt you even believe it yourself. If an;ything, one of the reasons ISIS hung onto Al Bab so long was in the hope that the Turks would divert to fight the Kurds instead of them, allowing ISIS to sit back, watch, and strike whichever side seemed weakest at the right moment. And this could well have worked, but for the Syrian army offensive coming in from the south.

    As absolutely everyone knows, there's a buffer thing going on alright. The whole area, maybe even Manbij itself, is being given by the YPG over to the Syrian army, as a buffer, not against the pathetic north Aleppo pseudo-FSA, but against the Turks. If the YPG had been interested in taking this non-Kurdish territory that the Syrian army has marched into away from ISIS, it probably could have done so, without suffering the months of fiascos that the Turks underwent, mostly because they had to try to make their useless Syrian patsies do most of the fighting, for political reasons.

    -AMH-

  12. #2112
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    Basically was surrendered, for the simple reason that they were about to be surrounded and trapped if they hadn't.
    This makes absolutely no sense. You appear to be suggesting that ISIS surrendered territory which put them in a situation of being surrounded and entrapped in the Al-Bab/Tadif area in order to avoid being surrounded and entrapped.


    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post

    Which is also why all of a sudden after months of failures and embarrassing fiascos the Turks and their pet "FSA" were suddenly able to finally get Al Bab--only because the Syrians were following Russian orders not to seize it first themselves.
    This is more nonsense. The As_Sadists had not a hope of getting into Al-Bab. They were a day late and a dollar short. They were not even able to get into Tadif until ISIS handed it over to them ... despite the disinformation you were posting here weeks ago that it had been somehow seized in a day.
    Last edited by Sam Lord; 05-03-2017 at 01:05 PM.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  13. #2113
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    The SDF has suddenly been transformed by the US into an overwhelmingly Arab force. Amazing.

    US Lieutenant General Stephen Townsend, the head of the Combined Joint Task Force against the Islamic State (IS) group, has said that the Syrian Arab Coalition (SAC) is now the majority group with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

    “I’ll say that we have watched and operated along-side the Syrian Democratic Forces, of which about 40 percent are composed of YPG Kurds, the People’s Protection Units (YPG); and about 60 percent now are composed of the Syrian Arab Coalition,” Townsend said during a teleconference this week with Pentagon reporters.
    https://komnews.com/syrian-arab-coal...ity-group-sdf/

    I googled this Syrian Arab Coalition, of which I had heard virtually nothing, because I was astonished to hear that it now comprised about 60% of the SDF.

    This is what wiki says:

    The Syrian Arab Coalition is claimed by the U.S. government as an alliance of programmatically exclusively ethnic Arab militias established during the Syrian Civil War. In this narrative, it consists of exclusively ethnic Arab component groups of the polyethnic Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) alliance. However, no reference for the "Syrian Arab Coalition" can be found outside of the communication of the U.S. administration. The term "Syrian Arab Coalition" has been described as an invention without substance, for political communication, to mitigate Turkish aversion against U.S. support for the SDF due to the latter's strong ethnic Kurdish component.In February 2017, it was reported that the Syrian Arab Coalition forces made up about 20,000 out of the SDF's 50,000 fighters.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  14. #2114
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    This makes absolutely no sense. You appear to be suggesting that ISIS surrendered territory which put them in a situation of being surrounded and entrapped in the Al-Bab/Tadif area in order to avoid being surrounded and entrapped.
    Look at a map. The Syrians were marching from the south to cut off and entrap the ISIS forces in Al Bab-quite successfully, while the Turks and their quislings were repeatedly failing to get anywhere from the north. You seem to think that the ISIS forces were simply allowing them through without resistance, which would have been utterly suicidal on their part. When it became clear that the ISIS forces were about to be surrounded, then they withdrew from Al Bab and Tadif, and the Turks abruptly got Al Bab and the Syrians got Tadif, without resistance.


    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    This is more nonsense. The As_Sadists had not a hope of getting into Al-Bab. They were a day late and a dollar short. They were not even able to get into Tadif until ISIS handed it over to them ... despite the disinformation you were posting here weeks ago that it had been somehow seized in a day.
    An incorrect report, which Southfront promptly publicly and honestly retracted. Unlike you, who never retracted your totally false claim that the ex-al Q'aida bands were uninvolved down in Der'aa.

    With the main battle fronts to the northeast with the Turks and with the Syrians to the South, a small band of alleged FSA'ers did managed to sneak into Al Bab from the west before Tadif fell-and were promptly kicked out. In fact, neither Al Bab nor Tadif were taken. The ISIS forces escaped when it became obvious they were about to be surrounded, and the Turks and Syrians advanced without resistance to the previously agreed dividing line in between Al Bab and Tadif. Had it not been for said dividing line and the ISIS refusal to be cut off and surrounded, there is every reason to believe that the Syrians, not the Turks and their quislings, would have taken Al Bab first.

    -amh-

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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    Look at a map. The Syrians were marching from the south to cut off and entrap the ISIS forces in Al Bab-quite successfully, while the Turks and their quislings were repeatedly failing to get anywhere from the north. You seem to think that the ISIS forces were simply allowing them through without resistance, which would have been utterly suicidal on their part.
    Well, that is the fact of the matter. To get south of Al-Bab and surround the ISIS forces the As-Sadists had to come from a long way, East of Aleppo city, and take a whole swathe of ISIS held territory. They did this pretty much unopposed. I think I commented on this on the site at the time.


    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    When it became clear that the ISIS forces were about to be surrounded, then they withdrew from Al Bab and Tadif, and the Turks abruptly got Al Bab and the Syrians got Tadif, without resistance.
    Why is it the "Turks" who got Al-Bab and the "Syrians" instead of the Russians or Iranians who got "Tadif". Your pro regime bias is very obvious. We have a great trotskyite "anti-imperialist" who hates the Turks and supports the Russia/US/Assad alliance.


    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    An incorrect report, which Southfront promptly publicly and honestly retracted. Unlike you, who never retracted your totally false claim that the ex-al Q'aida bands were uninvolved down in Der'aa.
    Who are these "ex-al Q'aida bands" you are talking about?

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    With the main battle fronts to the northeast with the Turks and with the Syrians to the South ...
    Turks and Syrians again ... your narrative is willfully dishonest to a shocking extent.

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    a small band of alleged FSA'ers did managed to sneak into Al Bab from the west before Tadif fell-and were promptly kicked out. In fact, neither Al Bab nor Tadif were taken. The ISIS forces escaped when it became obvious they were about to be surrounded, and the Turks and Syrians advanced without resistance to the previously agreed dividing line in between Al Bab and Tadif. Had it not been for said dividing line and the ISIS refusal to be cut off and surrounded, there is every reason to believe that the Syrians, not the Turks and their quislings, would have taken Al Bab first.
    This is a complete distortion of the long struggle to take Al-Bab. By the time ISIS withdrew the FSA has taken a significant part of the city and substantially degraded the daesh defensive capabilities. It was only a matter of time before the rest of the city fell. The fact that it took so long was down, as far as I could see, to an attempt to protect civilians. Had the attackers adopted the Russian/Assad approach of disregarding the civilian population and had leveled the place with thermobaric missiles and bunker busting bombs and doused it with substantial quantities of chlorine gas thejob would, no doubt, have been completed much earlier.

    Incidentally, you keep referring to some agreement between the contending forces about a dividing line between Al-Bab and Tadif. What is your source for this? And please don't tell me southfront. If there was an agreement why do you think that the FSA tried, unsuccessfully, to take Tadif from the Russians after ISIS were allowed to withdraw.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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