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Thread: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

  1. #2086
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    206,046 Civilians killed in the Syrian conflict between March 2011 and February 2017.

    Breakdown of who killed them.

    Assad Regime/Iranians and associated militias - 190,357 (92.39%)
    Russia - 3,978
    Armed opposition - 3,803
    Extreme Islamists (ISIS/Nusra) - 3,551
    US Coalition - 827
    YPG - 522

    Source: SNHR
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  2. #2087
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Unsurprising ...

    .@Elizrael: A rebel in the Manshiya front in Daraa City has told me that Jordan and the MOC room in Amman had told FSA Southern Front rebels in Daraa City to halt their al-Bonyan al-Marsous offensive in Daraa City but they had ignored orders. Local Daraa activists had also said that the MOC room has threatened to cut the salaries of any Free Syrian Army Southern Front fighters who are participating in the battle, Syria.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  3. #2088
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Yes it has. Who are these people ? They seem to have it completely wrong / back to front in the first sentences. Deraa and Homs where the revolt started are in an area with good land and local wealth. The area has a history of MB risings, with external backing . Also, next to Jordan and handy for arms transfers.

    Aleppo and Damascus have large working class populations, and by and large have adhered to Assad or stayed quiet.
    Exactly. Although Bonapartist maneuvers by the Assad dynasty to gain popular support have withered away as the Assads and all their similars elsewhere free marketized after the collapse of the USSR, nonetheless the memory of that sort of thing largely kept the working class out of the revolt against Assad-somewhat parallel to America with the anti-Trump mobilizations, actually, though in the case of Trump every word about the fine American working class you find on his website has less than no actual content.

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    I think this is a somewhat mechanical /economic determinist analysis.

    Marxists are not inclined to fight long drawn out guerilla wars and are opposed to individual terror, because the essence of Marxism is mass action in the interests of the working masses. Not because they don't want to give up their day job./QUOTE]

    Being does determine consciousness over the long term. Too much time in the hills as a guerilla will sooner or later affect your politics and move you away from working class socialism to something else, though not instantaneously of course, and not with every single individual involved in a heroic guerilla band.

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Underground revolutionary organisers in states where socialists are suppressed are generally unarmed and are focused on building organisations and on building support for Marxism. They try to stick to rising when the conditions are there to win.....
    Yes, at least that's what they should do, instead of "picking up the gun," only appropriate in a genuinely revolutionary situation.

    QUOTE=C. Flower;461752]Of all people, it was Robert Fisk who pointed out that the countries with the most organised working classes / trade unions were the ones who weathered the Arab Spring events best.

    I don't think it is even a question of revolutionary leadership - basic working class organisation and class consciousness can be enough to hold on to gains and prevent a petty-bourgeois led debacle. A revolutionary leadership is needed for a revolution.

    Globalisation and the shift of manufacturing jobs to the east is a lot to do with the events in the Middle East. The working class of the east seems to have mainly been dealing with wage increase actions. When it inevitably breaks through into class questions of power, it will have an enormous impact on thinking amongst 'service sector' workers in the west.
    And transportation and communication workers, whose weight and social power have been increased by modern technology. That's why dock workers are getting more and more central to the labor movement.

    But I'm afraid when push comes to shove it does all center on revolutionary leadership. The working class of Egypt is industrial, powerful, well organized and highly class consciousness. Nonetheless, everything went bad, and the only possible explanation is the utter failure of the Egyptian left.

    -AMH-

  4. #2089
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    206,046 Civilians killed in the Syrian conflict between March 2011 and February 2017.

    Breakdown of who killed them.

    Assad Regime/Iranians and associated militias - 190,357 (92.39%)
    Russia - 3,978
    Armed opposition - 3,803
    Extreme Islamists (ISIS/Nusra) - 3,551
    US Coalition - 827
    YPG - 522

    Source: SNHR
    A highly questionable source.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivil...s_methodology/

    -AMH-

  5. #2090
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Yes it has. Who are these people ?...
    Looked at the link, and immediately ran into an old acquaintance, Yossi Schwartz, whom I met once when he was visiting New York in the early 1970s. At the time, he was the leader of the then-existing Spartacist League of Israel. His political history since then has been strange and complex, and most certainly better discussed on a different thread.

    But what is perhaps relevant here, is that the second time he broke with the Spartacists (the first time over personal issues and he rejoined after a few years) in the '90s, was over a clear political issue.

    It was over what position to take on the civil war in Algeria, which had much in common with the contemporary civil war in Syria, and was almost as bloody and ugly.

    The Spartacist position was plague on both your houses. YS argued that, as Islamic fundamentalism was the greater evil, one had to give "critical support" to the Algerian dictatorship, the blood brothers (literally, both soaked in blood) of the Assad regime against the Islamic fundamentalist rebels.

    Not exactly what he is advocating now! Indeed this piece reads almost like a polemic against himself twenty years ago.

    YS was, by the way, the Spartacist who developed and formulated the Spartacist position on the national question in Israel/Palestine, namely that you have two interpenetrated peoples both of whom have rights to the land, and that therefore this is a problem not resolvable within the limits of capitalism, but only through socialist revolution. The classic Spartacist slogan, which he may well have created, was "not Jew against Arab but class against class."

    Which is definitely *not* the position of the RCIT, with whom he is currently affiliated.

    -AMH-

  6. #2091
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    Yes, that all sounds right-as long as it is clear that "the Syrian people protesting against Salafists, sectarianism & Assad" are largely a subset, the best subset, of the radical youth you describe. In Tunisia and Egypt, the "Arab Spring" was powered by working class mobilization-but nonetheless went bad in Egypt due to the absence of revolutionary leadership, and simply sputtered out in Tunisia. Not in Syria or Libya, where it went bad quicker and worse.

    -AMH-
    They are. I'm sure people of the same stance and character can be found fighting ISIS, or in Assad-controlled territory, trying to organise socialist groups with the ultimate aim of working class control of Syria.

    The Left who idealise the internercine carnage in Syria as "the Revolution" and the Left that idealises Assad's regime have both sold them out.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  7. #2092
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    Unsurprising ...
    Yes, it is unsurprising.

    Who was paying their wages ? Who runs the MOC room ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southe...n_rebel_group)

    http://www.thenational.ae/world/midd...entre-in-amman

    Istanbul // A secret operations command centre in Jordan, staffed by western and Arab military officials, has given vital support to rebels fighting on Syria’s southern front, providing them with weapons and tactical advice on attacking regime targets.

    Rebel fighters and opposition members say the command centre, based in an intelligence headquarters building in Amman, channels vehicles, sniper rifles, mortars, heavy machine guns, small arms and ammunition to Free Syrian Army units – although it has stopped short of giving them much coveted anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles.
    Officials in Amman denied the command centre exists. "We dismiss these allegations. Jordan is not a host or part of any cooperations against Syria. Jordan’s interest is to see a stable and secure Syria, one that is able to keep its problems inside its borders," said Mohammad Al Momani, minister of media affairs.
    "We will not do anything that will feed violence in Syria," he said.
    But Syrian opposition figures familiar with rebel operations in Deraa, about 75 kilometres north of Amman, said Jordan hosted the command centre and had tasked senior Jordanian intelligence officials to work with western and Arab states in helping rebels to plan missions and get munitions and fighters across the border.
    The existence of a weapons bridge from Jordan to rebels inside Syria has been a poorly guarded secret since a New York Times expose in March, but few details of its workings have been revealed.
    However, according to opposition figures, the command centre – known as "the operations room" – is a well-run operation staffed by high-ranking military officials from 14 countries, including the US, European nations and Arabian Gulf states, the latter providing the bulk of materiel and financial support to rebel factions.
    The command centre gets advance notice from the FSA of upcoming military assaults against forces loyal to Bashar Al Assad, Syria’s president, and only hands over weapons if officials at the centre approve of the attacks.
    "When we want to make an operation, we arrange for one of our men to have an informal meeting with a military liaison officer from the operations room and they meet up, in a hotel or somewhere in Amman, and talk through the plan," said an FSA officer involved in the system.
    "If the liaison officer likes our idea, he refers it to a full meeting of the operations room and a few days later we go there and make a formal presentation of the plan," the FSA official said.
    Then, western and Arab military advisers at the command centre make adjustments to tactics and help determine when and how the operation should go ahead.
    They also allocate weapons needed for the attack and, with the plan approved, set up supplies to ensure the FSA has them.
    "We run through all the numbers, what we need in terms of men and weapons, and when we’ll get it. It’s all detailed, it’s done in a very exact way," the FSA official said.
    Islamist factions outside of the FSA, including groups aligned to Al Qaeda, are not involved with the operations room and do not directly receive weapons or military advice.
    Not all FSA operations in Deraa are approved by the command centre. Sometimes FSA units do not even approach it for support, preferring to carry out operations alone using whatever resources they have.

    If they do not have the weapons they need, or if an attack is more complicated to plan, FSA officers will seek support from the command centre.

    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  8. #2093
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    A highly questionable source.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivil...s_methodology/

    -AMH-
    The US claim to have killed 30,000 + ISIS fighters by bombing alone, with according to this count 827 civilian casualties. Amazingly skilled targetting, and forensic counting, considering they don't have anyone on the ground and many fighters are in civilian dress.

    I would question why they don't count deaths by gender. Gender and age groups would seem to be a factor that they could use to verify/cross check their figures on civilian deaths, as the fighters are clearly in the main males aged 16-40.

    SNHR expicitly states that women and children casualty rate indicates deliberate targeting civilians. But here we see that ~10% of civilians casualties are children. They don't state women rate, but going by their other reports, it's even lower. So it's 20% women and children at max.
    Many times said to be Qatari funded, they certainly don't provide any transparency about where the money comes from, and have a close association with Qatar.

    When peace talks are starting, non-neutral reports of mass murder and genocide predictably come along.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 15-02-2017 at 11:20 AM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  9. #2094
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    A highly questionable source.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/syriancivil...s_methodology/

    -AMH-
    Well, at least we know who they are ... which is more than can be said about the person questioning their methodology.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  10. #2095
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The US claim to have killed 30,000 + ISIS fighters by bombing alone, with according to this count 827 civilian casualties. Amazingly skilled targetting, and forensic counting, considering they don't have anyone on the ground and many fighters are in civilian dress.
    I think you are mixing Iraq and Syria together. But hey .... go for it.





    When peace talks are starting, non-neutral reports of mass murder and genocide predictably come along.
    Yea .. The As_sadists would never kill anyone ...
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  11. #2096
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Yes, it is unsurprising.

    Who was paying their wages ? Who runs the MOC room ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southe...n_rebel_group)

    http://www.thenational.ae/world/midd...entre-in-amman
    Public knowledge for years. Don't get too excited ....
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  12. #2097
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Some very odd stuff taking place in East Aleppo that I have no explanation for.

    The As-Sadists are gobbling up huge amounts of territory south of Al Bab from ISIS virtually uncontested even though this has pretty much besieged the Daesh in Al Bab and adjoining areas they still hold. At the same time the Daesh are defending Al Bab from the FSA tooth and nail.

    Rumours now swirling on the internet that Tadif will be evacuated by ISIS and their HQ and fighters relocated to the centre of Al Bab. In this case the As_sadists would get Tadif on a platter. These are just rumours so far, of course ...

    At the same time, and even more puzzling, the campaign by the FAS/TKF to take Al Bab has virtually ground to a halt in recent days. I know that every building in the place is IED'd and that there are extensive tunnel networks, etc. etc. but still ... they should be making greater progress.

    Something very funny is going on ....
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  13. #2098
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    I think you are mixing Iraq and Syria together. But hey .... go for it.
    Well, might as well -- the US and UK conflate the two anyway, when announcing their supposed body counts.

    And strangely, the UK estimate of ISIS dead is exactly half - 25,000 fewer - than the US. That is a joke. 75% of all ISIS fighters, they say. Does that tally with the effects on the ground in terms of territory held ?

    http://edition.cnn.com/2016/12/16/po...ghters-killed/

    How much are these body counts worth ?

    Carter repeatedly heralded the coalition's success against ISIS, citing the recent targeted killing of three ISIS leaders and the ejection of ISIS from Sirte, Libya, once the terror group's largest stronghold outside Syria or Iraq.But Carter's predecessor, Chuck Hagel, said Thursday that the practice of counting the number of enemies killed wasn't a particularly useful one.
    "My policy has always been, don't release that kind of thing," Hagel told CNN's Wolf Blitzer.
    Hagel, a veteran of the Vietnam War where the American military's enemy body count statistics were disparaged for being overly optimistic, criticized releasing the figures.
    "Body counts. I mean, come on, did we learn anything from Vietnam?" he asked, adding, "Body counts make no sense."
    Yea .. The As_sadists would never kill anyone ...
    Sadam Hussein was no Mahatma Gandhi.

    Does that make the "Kuwaiti incubator babies" story true ?
    Last edited by C. Flower; 15-02-2017 at 08:02 PM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  14. #2099
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    Public knowledge for years. Don't get too excited ....
    Of course it has been public knowledge that this was a CIA trained and directed force for years, but this appeared to have passed you by.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  15. #2100
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    Well, at least we know who they are ... which is more than can be said about the person questioning their methodology.
    Whatever happened to "the ball not the man"? His arguments are either valid or not valid, regardless of who he might be.

    -AMH-

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