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Thread: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

  1. #1951
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    It won't hold for too long, imo. I can't see the Syrian people accepting their country being run by Iranians and Iragi militias. And order on the streets of East Aleppo is being maintained by Chechen Military Police. I can't see that sort of arrangement being too popular in the long run.

    But the ceasefire could be good. I'm getting increasingly sick of JFS, for example, and the way it conducts itself. If the other rebels use the ceasefire to put it out of business I wouldn't shed any tears. This would be a huge move and probably unlikely .. but then the provocations have been substantial.
    I don't think the Syrian people want their affairs run by any of the above. A problem from the beginning has surely been the totally disparate nature of the Assad opposition ? MB, Kurds, Salafists, Muslim Brotherhood, mercenaries/adventurers and decent young people who just wanted civil rights and not to have a Government they were afraid of. There is no shared agenda there - in fact they have been fighting/killing each other on and off from the start. As soon as the arms are put away, the peaceful protestors come out again: this is one more reason why prolonged war is the preferred option for some.

    It would be a miracle if the peace held - there is no agreement as yet, and the US seems to me to be tooling things up to intensify the war, with their eyes mainly on Russia. Hard to see how there could be peace if they want to scupper it.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 02-01-2017 at 11:35 AM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  2. #1952
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    When I don't post you come on here braying like a donkey that I have run away.

    When I do post you beg me not too....

    But I'm doing my best to ignore imbecility these days.
    Very embarrassing Sam..... very embarrassing.
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies.”

  3. #1953
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    It won't hold for too long, imo.
    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post

    It would be a miracle if the peace held

    Conflict junkies.
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies.”

  4. #1954
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by riposte View Post
    Conflict junkies.
    Not me, I think this ceasefire is the best thing that could have happened.

    But yes, I also think it would be a miracle if it holds. And even if it does, it would be brief intermission while all the ceasefire partners get together to go after first the Kurds and then ISIS, so the blood will keep flowing.

    -AMH-

  5. #1955
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by riposte View Post
    Conflict junkies.
    No miracle as yet. RTE is reporting that the opposition is not agreeing to go to Kazakhstan for talks because of continued attacks by the Syrian Government forces and their allies.

    This may be true, but one can only imagine the behind-the-scenes outrage of the long-term sponsors about any Russia-Turkey-Iran-Opposition talks.

    Notwithstanding the UN endorsement.

    If Assad really was doing the dirty on the ceasefire, that would be a really stupid move.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  6. #1956
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    No miracle as yet. RTE is reporting that the opposition is not agreeing to go to Kazakhstan for talks because of continued attacks by the Syrian Government forces and their allies.

    This may be true, but one can only imagine the behind-the-scenes outrage of the long-term sponsors about any Russia-Turkey-Iran-Opposition talks.

    Notwithstanding the UN endorsement.

    If Assad really was doing the dirty on the ceasefire, that would be a really stupid move.
    Well, whatever is going on behind the scenes, in public there has been plenty of annoyance reported in the NYT from US officials.

    The Syrian rebels don't need any behind the scenes wirepullers to tell them that they are the losers and Assad the winners in this one. The best they can hope for is a few scattered rural Bantustans. Since Idlib, their last major center, is the bastion of Nusra, they could end up with no significant territory of their own at all, unless you count the patch of northern Syria that Turkey gets, where they can be the Turkish quislings.

    -AMH-

  7. #1957
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    No miracle as yet. RTE is reporting that the opposition is not agreeing to go to Kazakhstan for talks because of continued attacks by the Syrian Government forces and their allies.

    This may be true, but one can only imagine the behind-the-scenes outrage of the long-term sponsors about any Russia-Turkey-Iran-Opposition talks.

    Notwithstanding the UN endorsement.

    If Assad really was doing the dirty on the ceasefire, that would be a really stupid move.
    If RTE is reporting it...... it's a lie. They haven't published a truthful report since 1926.

    Let's face it... the "Rebels" are not just terrorists...... they are cowerds .... they haven't got the balls to carry on.




    .
    Last edited by riposte; 04-01-2017 at 10:25 PM.
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies.”

  8. #1958
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by riposte View Post
    If RTE is reporting it...... it's a lie. They haven't published a truthful report since 1926.

    Let's face it... the "Rebels" are not just terrorists...... they are cowerds .... they haven't got the balls to carry on.

    .
    Just because they are mostly Islamic fanatics or servants of Western imperialism does not make them "cowerds." I have no doubt that, with their backs to the wall, most of them will try to fight on, hoping for a shift in political weather. The current coziness between Trump and Putin could easily break down. Negotiations in Kazakhstan essentially offer them nothing other than a possible role as Turkish quislings in a small patch of Northern Syria, tasked with fighting the Kurds. Not too appealing.

    -AMH-

  9. #1959
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Turkey very pissed off indeed with the US, but what can they do ?

    Asking here why they are allowing the US to use Incirlik air base since the US, they say, has not supported them against ISIS. And, more to the point, why the US has supported their enemies the YPG.

    http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tur...&NewsCatID=338

    The Russian Government has announced today (not for the first time) that it will pull back from Syria.

    I'm sure there is far more going on behind the scenes than we are aware of in terms of threats and counter threats.

    NATO has moved a pile of troops up in response to "the Russian threat on Ukraine". What sounds like a massive eastern European exercise is planned.

    https://www.defense.gov/News/Article...pacific-europe

    Separately, Cook said, the United States is demonstrating its continued commitment to collective security through a series of actions designed to reassure NATO allies and partners of America’s dedication to enduring peace and stability in the region in light of Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

    “Tanks, trucks and other equipment are scheduled to arrive in Europe this weekend, beginning a nine-month rotation of U.S. Army forces supporting Operation Atlantic Resolve,” the press secretary said.



    The arrival of troops and equipment from 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team, 4th Infantry Division, out of Fort Carson, Colorado, marks the beginning of the presence of an ABCT and back-to-back rotations of U.S. troops and equipment in Europe, he added.
    After the equipment arrives at Bremerhaven, Germany, it will move by rail, commercial line haul and military convoy to Poland, Cook said. Troops and equipment will later be relocated throughout the region for training and exercises with European allies.



    “This effort is part of our European Reassurance Initiative to maintain persistent, rotational presence of air, land, and sea forces in Central and Eastern Europe,” he said.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  10. #1960
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    Turkey very pissed off indeed with the US, but what can they do ?

    Asking here why they are allowing the US to use Incirlik air base since the US, they say, has not supported them against ISIS. And, more to the point, why the US has supported their enemies the YPG....
    Kicking the US airforce out of Incirlik is indeed what they could do. That would hurt whatever plans Obama has in his last weeks in office bigtime. But that would be an extremely bold step for a NATO member.

    -AMH-
    Last edited by A Marxist Historian; 07-01-2017 at 03:34 PM.

  11. #1961
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/07012017

    Another Mosul district taken by the Iraqi forces. Posting it here because it is all one war, although we have a separate thread on Iraq.

    If anyone has found a good, reasonably neutral source of information on Mosul, please link it here or in the Iraq War thread.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  12. #1962
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/07012017

    If anyone has found a good, reasonably neutral source of information on Mosul, please link it here or in the Iraq War thread.

    I haven't got time to go hunting for a needle in a haystack........ of Fake News.
    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, misdiagnosing it, and then misapplying the wrong remedies.”

  13. #1963
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by riposte View Post
    I haven't got time to go hunting for a needle in a haystack........ of Fake News.
    I have to agree with you, on that. There is a wall of white noise interposed between reality and the readers of news.

    However, we know enough to know that poor bloody Iraq is still getting done over.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

  14. #1964
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    I have to agree with you, on that. There is a wall of white noise interposed between reality and the readers of news.

    However, we know enough to know that poor bloody Iraq is still getting done over.
    Indeed.

    What they teach you in history methodology classes is that there is no such thing as objectivity, it does not exist except as a goal for historians. "That noble dream" as Peter Novick called it.

    Reading against interest is often the best substitute. The US press, which has every reason to proclaim the assault on Mosul a smash success, has been repeatedly reporting that it has bogged down and civilians are being harmed in large numbers.

    Who would have guessed that ISIS would still be holding out in Mosul on the eve of Trump in the White House? (Well, I did actually.) Indeed, reports all seem to agree that all fighting is in east Mosul east of the river, where you have fewer Sunnis and ISIS was thought to be weaker, not in the larger half of the city west of the river, the ISIS stronghold. The ISIS defense of Mosul seems to be starting to take on Stalingrad proportions.

    The question of the day is, how will Trump change the anti-Mosul offensive? Will he carry out that winged phrase that flourished during the Republican debates, namely "carpet bombing"?

    -AMH-

  15. #1965
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    Reading against interest is often the best substitute. The US press, which has every reason to proclaim the assault on Mosul a smash success, has been repeatedly reporting that it has bogged down and civilians are being harmed in large numbers.

    Who would have guessed that ISIS would still be holding out in Mosul on the eve of Trump in the White House? (Well, I did actually.) Indeed, reports all seem to agree that all fighting is in east Mosul east of the river, where you have fewer Sunnis and ISIS was thought to be weaker, not in the larger half of the city west of the river, the ISIS stronghold. The ISIS defense of Mosul seems to be starting to take on Stalingrad proportions.

    The question of the day is, how will Trump change the anti-Mosul offensive? Will he carry out that winged phrase that flourished during the Republican debates, namely "carpet bombing"?
    Mosul is taking a long time because they have choosen the hard route of not turning the city into rubble from the air as the Russians and Assad did with Aleppo. Urban warfare is always difficult .. particularly for the attacker. The Iraqi forces have paid a huge price in blood but they have nearly taken the East. The West will fall in time though ISIS will resist tenaciously as they always do.

    I'm not sure what makes you think that Trump can dictate how the Mosul offense will be carried out.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

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