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Thread: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

  1. #2101
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    Some very odd stuff taking place in East Aleppo that I have no explanation for.

    The As-Sadists are gobbling up huge amounts of territory south of Al Bab from ISIS virtually uncontested even though this has pretty much besieged the Daesh in Al Bab and adjoining areas they still hold. At the same time the Daesh are defending Al Bab from the FSA tooth and nail.

    Rumours now swirling on the internet that Tadif will be evacuated by ISIS and their HQ and fighters relocated to the centre of Al Bab. In this case the As_sadists would get Tadif on a platter. These are just rumours so far, of course ...

    At the same time, and even more puzzling, the campaign by the FAS/TKF to take Al Bab has virtually ground to a halt in recent days. I know that every building in the place is IED'd and that there are extensive tunnel networks, etc. etc. but still ... they should be making greater progress.

    Something very funny is going on ....
    Heh. I have no trouble accounting for the successes of the Syrian military and the failures of the "FSA."

    If ISIS takes seriously the Turkish/Russian boundary line running between Tadif and Al Bab, it is only sensible on their part to withdraw from fighting the Syrian army, since the Russians apparently now don't want the Syrians to take Al Bab, and concentrate on bashing the feeble "FSA." Of course, ISIS would be gambling that the Syrians will do what the Russians tell them, but that's the only practical way they could actually hang on to Al Bab at this point.

    -AMH-

  2. #2102
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian View Post
    Heh. I have no trouble accounting for the successes of the Syrian military and the failures of the "FSA."

    If ISIS takes seriously the Turkish/Russian boundary line running between Tadif and Al Bab, it is only sensible on their part to withdraw from fighting the Syrian army, since the Russians apparently now don't want the Syrians to take Al Bab, and concentrate on bashing the feeble "FSA." Of course, ISIS would be gambling that the Syrians will do what the Russians tell them, but that's the only practical way they could actually hang on to Al Bab at this point.

    -AMH-
    This makes absolutely no sense.

    There is no way that ISIS can hold onto a surrounded AL Bab, where they cannot be resupplied, for any length of time. It is only a matter of time (1 week/two weeks) before it falls if the FSA go about the business. (Or are you suggesting that the Russians/As-Sadists will resupply and support them from the south?) So it is ridiculous to suggest they are handing over territory to the regime and isolating themselves in Al Bab in order to defend Al Bab. And what is the strategic or other significance of a besieged Al Bab in any case? It has none. A little black dot in a sea or red and green for a week or two .. and then the black disappears.

    The As-Sadists are having what you call success against ISIS in north Aleppo simply because ISIS is not resisting them. Why this is remains a mystery. Particularly as they have fought the FSA for every inch of territory there for months now.

    I'm not sure, btw, why you consider the FSA so "feeble". It is still in the field through Syria after 5 years of fighting .. despite the best efforts of the Russian air force, the Iranians and their multiplicity of surrogate Shiite militias, etc. If it was so "feeble" it would have been defeated years ago.
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  3. #2103
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post

    The Left who idealise the internercine carnage in Syria as "the Revolution" and the Left that idealises Assad's regime have both sold them out.
    Stupid. When a government attacks it's people and you do not support the resistance you are de facto supporting the government. That's a fact. So you like to pretend that you are neutral in the conflict but in effect you support Assad. Because that is where the ruling power is. It's like anything bad done by a government in a country .. laws, actions, whatever. If you say it's not my business and I don't have a position one way or another then you are in effect supporting the bad. Because you leave the power be.

    Whenever there is a situation where the powerful try to crush the powerless and you stand aside then you are supporting the powerful. Simple. And it's doesn't matter how much you moan about the people being crushed not standing for working class rule or whatever...
    Do not rejoice in his defeat, you men. For though the world has stood up and stopped the bastard, the (female dog) that bore him is in heat again. Bertolt Brecht

  4. #2104
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    This makes absolutely no sense.

    There is no way that ISIS can hold onto a surrounded AL Bab, where they cannot be resupplied, for any length of time. It is only a matter of time (1 week/two weeks) before it falls if the FSA go about the business. (Or are you suggesting that the Russians/As-Sadists will resupply and support them from the south?) So it is ridiculous to suggest they are handing over territory to the regime and isolating themselves in Al Bab in order to defend Al Bab. And what is the strategic or other significance of a besieged Al Bab in any case? It has none. A little black dot in a sea or red and green for a week or two .. and then the black disappears.

    The As-Sadists are having what you call success against ISIS in north Aleppo simply because ISIS is not resisting them. Why this is remains a mystery. Particularly as they have fought the FSA for every inch of territory there for months now.

    I'm not sure, btw, why you consider the FSA so "feeble". It is still in the field through Syria after 5 years of fighting .. despite the best efforts of the Russian air force, the Iranians and their multiplicity of surrogate Shiite militias, etc. If it was so "feeble" it would have been defeated years ago.
    The FSA is perhaps one thing, though not a terribly impressive thing, the "FSA" the Turks have cobbled together as a local quisling force in the Turkish occupation zone another. They have demonstrated their ineptitude and preference for running over fighting repeatedly during the Al Bab siege, which would have gotten nowhere without stiffening by Turkish tanks and Turkish, Russian and American bombings.

    And al Bab, I do believe the second largest city after Raqqah ISIS has in Syria, isn't cut off yet, and if ISIS can continue inflicting humiliating defeats on the "FSA" would not be, if the Syria army stays south of the Turkish/Russian demarcation line. You seem to be confirming Southfront's claims that ISIS has kicked out the "FSA" band that snuck into Al Bab from the west, the main front line for a month having been northeast of Al Bab.

    -AMH-

  5. #2105
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    Default Re: Prospect of Invasion of Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by Sam Lord View Post
    Stupid. When a government attacks it's people and you do not support the resistance you are de facto supporting the government. That's a fact. So you like to pretend that you are neutral in the conflict but in effect you support Assad. Because that is where the ruling power is. It's like anything bad done by a government in a country .. laws, actions, whatever. If you say it's not my business and I don't have a position one way or another then you are in effect supporting the bad. Because you leave the power be.

    Whenever there is a situation where the powerful try to crush the powerless and you stand aside then you are supporting the powerful. Simple. And it's doesn't matter how much you moan about the people being crushed not standing for working class rule or whatever...
    No, I'm not at all neutral in the conflict. I am very clear about who I support. I am unsure about who you support because other than a generic "Revolution" which you know quite well to consist of many forces and political standpoints that are opposed to and fighting each other you have given no indication.

    Billions of cash have been poured into arming and training these "powerless" fighting groups. The idea that they represent the powerless is a joke. They represent their paymasters. The future they offer Syria is a failed state, preyed on by oil firms and local bandit militias.
    When progressive activists or fighters are confronted with militias armed and trained by the CIA who threaten them and/or kill them, whose side are you on ? When groups who take slaves and run crypto-fascist medieval-style regimes on their territory are in conflict with people who want a non sectarian government, or basic sovereignty for their ethnic group, where do you stand ? When you support groups armed to the teeth by the Saudi and Qatari governments, whose aim it is to impose a Sharia regime and to drive out Shia, Christians, Yadzidi and so on from their homes, where do you stand ? I welcome these reactionary tools of imperialism being crushed by whoever has the means to crush them. Assad will never succeed in fully defeating them, or allowing Syria to stand with the Palestinians, because he won't and can't rally the working class behind him, and can't overcome the sectarian divides in the region. Only "stupid" revolution can do that.

    Originally Posted by A Marxist Historian

    Yes, that all sounds right-as long as it is clear that "the Syrian people protesting against Salafists, sectarianism & Assad" are largely a subset, the best subset, of the radical youth you describe. In Tunisia and Egypt, the "Arab Spring" was powered by working class mobilization-but nonetheless went bad in Egypt due to the absence of revolutionary leadership, and simply sputtered out in Tunisia. Not in Syria or Libya, where it went bad quicker and worse.

    -AMH-

    They are. I'm sure people of the same stance and character can be found fighting ISIS, or in Assad-controlled territory, trying to organise socialist groups with the ultimate aim of working class control of Syria.

    The Left who idealise the internercine carnage in Syria as "the Revolution" and the Left that idealises Assad's regime have both sold them out.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 16-02-2017 at 10:51 PM.
    “ We cannot withdraw our cards from the game. Were we as silent and mute as stones, our very passivity would be an act. ”
    — Jean-Paul Sartre

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