Page 2 of 25 FirstFirst 123412 ... LastLast
Results 16 to 30 of 366

Thread: China Bubble About to Burst ?

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    heart of Europe
    Posts
    22,539

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Don't tell Spain. China are their IMF

    Chinese investors showed a willingness Wednesday to invest billions of euros in Spain, with the China Investment Corporation - Beijing's sovereign wealth fund - saying it may inject up to 9.3 billion euros ($13.4 billion) into the Spanish financial system.

    The potential investments were discussed at a meeting in Beijing of Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero with China's largest financial institutions, sources in Spain's government said.

    A day after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao pledged to continue buying Spanish government bonds and investing in the restructuring of Spain's ailing savings banks, or cajas, Zapatero met with representatives of the CIC, the Chinese central bank and the Bank of China, among other institutions.

    The investment capacity of those institutions exceeds $3.5 trillion, or more than three times Spain's gross domestic product, according to Spanish government officials.
    http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/pol...#ixzz1JUCHztXg
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,824

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    That's interesting. Was there any similar pattern in Ireland or were we not entrepreneurial enough for it to happen here?
    No. We didn't sell domains at a fraction of the cost of .com domains and the .ie ccTLD isn't an open one where anyone can register domains.

    The Irish market has held up well and it is continuing to grow. There will be some losses (thousands of Irish hosted domains drop each month but thousands more are registered) but the domain business moves on a yearly basis so domains that would be dropping around now may have been registered just over a year ago. Most domains are never actually developed into working websites so there is a continuous cycle of domains being dropped/reregistered. What happened with .cn, I think, was that it had a perfect storm. The .cn domains were low cost (disposable domains for spammers), it caught the domain bubble of 2006-2008 and the rapidly growing domain count made the Chinese look good for the Bejing Olympics. Overtaking Germany's .de made them look good and the technology journalists swallowed the press releases whole (a bit like the .eu fiasco of 2006). However those in the industry knew what was happening

    There was a spike in property/luxury type domains over the property bubble but many of them are now washing out of the market. It was much the same with the dotcom bubble domains and its aftermath.

    One of the indicators that provides some insight into a country's economy is the development of websites. Most domain names are never developed into websites and they remain parked on the registrar and hoster parking pages until they drop. But web development in a TLD (.com/.ie etc) shows whether there are people selling and doing business on the web in that country. Taken with the media advertising, it shows how a TLD is used in a particular country and whether the country code TLD (such as .ie .uk etc) is used more than the .com/net/org TLD.

    It sounds to me as if they may be in our 2006, when property prices flattened off and there were various hopeless attempts to protract the bubble which only made the fall harder when it happened.
    I'm not sure. Much of the registrant base of .cn was not Chinese and they've effectively lost confidence in the ccTLD after the rules changed and the prices increased. A lot of those domains were going to be dropped anyway. What .cn represents now is very much the Chinese market and some external companies selling into that market. Numerically, it is back in 2007 figures but for a country of its size and population, 3.1M domains is a very low figure.

    Regards...jmcc
    Last edited by jmcc; 14-04-2011 at 10:30 AM.

  3. #18
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    12,044

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    jmcc this discussion of the domain name volumes is a very interesting one from the point of view of an economic indicator in the new knowledge economies. Do you have any recommendations for background reading? I'd like to bone up on this area about which I know very little...
    Think National. Act Local. Oh- and superstition is just the dark matter of human history.

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    2,824

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Con O'Sullivan View Post
    jmcc this discussion of the domain name volumes is a very interesting one from the point of view of an economic indicator in the new knowledge economies. Do you have any recommendations for background reading? I'd like to bone up on this area about which I know very little...
    It is still a very nebulous field. Apart from the domain registration volume, there is very little analysis of the web usage outside the search engines and specialist firms and even the search engines find it difficult to classify sites and correctly measure the numbers of active websites in a TLD. Some of the country code registries, IEDR, Nominet (www.nominet.org.uk), SIDN (Netherlands) (www.sidn.nl) , AFNIC (www.afnic.fr), DEnic (www.denic.de) publish annual reports and Eurid (www.eurid.eu) publishes quarterly reports which cover their country code TLDs.

    Eurid also does a mickey mouse effort (Eu Insights) every few months covering about 5K .eu sites and using students to classify them but it is pure Social Science rubbish. A few years ago, a survey of about 1.7M .eu sites found that only 13.37% of .eu was actively developed and it scared them so their Insights report should just be considered PR fluff rather than a real TLD survey. With website usage, you can't use Social Science/marketing statistics to extrapolate website types. It requires a background in search engine development (building them rather than just building websites) and involves a lot of content/semantic analysis. But it has to be highly automated to do anything approaching a decent survey.

    Verisign (The .com/net registry) also publishes its Domain Name Brief ( http://www.verisigninc.com/en_US/why...ef/index.xhtml ) which has some breakdown of site usage in com/net.

    The problem with measuring the usage of domains/websites in a country is that if a country has a good telecoms/economic infrastructure, most of the registered domains in the country will be those of the country's ccTLD (.ie/uk/de etc) with the .com/net/org occupying lesser shares of the market. Most of the country code registries do not provide access to their lists of domains so search engines are used by some surveys to measure usage. The quick and nasty way would be using something like site:.ie or site:.uk in Google to see how many pages are indexed. It is a very crude metric.

    Another metric is the numbers of domains to population (as in n domains per head of population). I don't agree with this one because it is not uncommon for people or companies to own more than one domain name. In the case of companies, some might have thousands of domains registered. I think that DEnic did a nice geographical analysis of domain registrations a few years ago that showed how .de domains were registered. The registrations followed population density - exactly what you would expect to find in a developed/non-bubble ccTLD.

    Regards...jmcc

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    heart of Europe
    Posts
    22,539

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Very timely Zerohedge article. Is Cactus Tyler Durden??

    Chinese Real Estate Bubble Pops: Beijing Real Estate Prices Plunge 27% In One Month
    Prices of new homes in China's capital plunged 26.7% month-on-month in March, the Beijing News reported Tuesday, citing data from the city's Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission.

    Average prices of newly-built houses in March fell 10.9% over the same month last year to CNY19,679 per square meter, marking the first year-on-year decline since September 2009.

    Home purchases fell 50.9% y/y and 41.5% m/m, the newspaper said, citing an unidentified official from the Housing Commission as saying the falls point to the government's crackdown on speculation in the real estate market.

    Beijing property prices rose 0.4% m/m in February, 0.8% in January and 0.2% in December, according to National Bureau of Statistics data.

    The central government has launched several rounds of measures since last year designed to cool the housing market, though local government reliance on land sales to plug fiscal holes mean enforcement hasn't been uniform.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chi...e-27-one-month
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    3,845

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Any police state which is run by one-party politburo is already beyond its sell-by date.
    If enough people only read Chairman Mao's Red Book they would see what a paper tiger their political masters have become.
    The system clock is set for self-destruct and the countdown has begun.

    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1F9Lp2mc6Pk&feature=related"]YouTube - BBC tv schools intro 60s[/ame]

  7. #22
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Posts
    12,044

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by jmcc View Post
    It is still a very nebulous field. Apart from the domain registration volume, there is very little analysis of the web usage outside the search engines and specialist firms and even the search engines find it difficult to classify sites and correctly measure the numbers of active websites in a TLD. Some of the country code registries, IEDR, Nominet (www.nominet.org.uk), SIDN (Netherlands) (www.sidn.nl) , AFNIC (www.afnic.fr), DEnic (www.denic.de) publish annual reports and Eurid (www.eurid.eu) publishes quarterly reports which cover their country code TLDs.

    Eurid also does a mickey mouse effort (Eu Insights) every few months covering about 5K .eu sites and using students to classify them but it is pure Social Science rubbish. A few years ago, a survey of about 1.7M .eu sites found that only 13.37% of .eu was actively developed and it scared them so their Insights report should just be considered PR fluff rather than a real TLD survey. With website usage, you can't use Social Science/marketing statistics to extrapolate website types. It requires a background in search engine development (building them rather than just building websites) and involves a lot of content/semantic analysis. But it has to be highly automated to do anything approaching a decent survey.

    Verisign (The .com/net registry) also publishes its Domain Name Brief ( http://www.verisigninc.com/en_US/why...ef/index.xhtml ) which has some breakdown of site usage in com/net.

    The problem with measuring the usage of domains/websites in a country is that if a country has a good telecoms/economic infrastructure, most of the registered domains in the country will be those of the country's ccTLD (.ie/uk/de etc) with the .com/net/org occupying lesser shares of the market. Most of the country code registries do not provide access to their lists of domains so search engines are used by some surveys to measure usage. The quick and nasty way would be using something like site:.ie or site:.uk in Google to see how many pages are indexed. It is a very crude metric.

    Another metric is the numbers of domains to population (as in n domains per head of population). I don't agree with this one because it is not uncommon for people or companies to own more than one domain name. In the case of companies, some might have thousands of domains registered. I think that DEnic did a nice geographical analysis of domain registrations a few years ago that showed how .de domains were registered. The registrations followed population density - exactly what you would expect to find in a developed/non-bubble ccTLD.

    Regards...jmcc

    Brilliant- thanks very much jmcc and its definitely an area of freakenomics worth watching once the mists start to clear on methodology. Activity around domain names could be used to infer all sorts of implications once properly measurable and mature and looked at in conjunction with other indicators. Ta for the tutorial/summary much appreciated...
    Think National. Act Local. Oh- and superstition is just the dark matter of human history.

  8. #23
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Meath
    Posts
    8,385

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Yojimbo View Post
    China certainly has bubble characteristics, but predicting when bubbles will burst is almost impossible. When I first visited China in the late 1990's, I thought it had all the characteristics of a bubble (I wasn't alone, later Gordon Chang wrote a best seller predicting it). Later, i was sure that it was going to burst big time after the Beijing Olympics, as everything seemed to have overheated to an insane level, but huge productivity gains and some smart policies seem to have averted it. But once again, its steaming ahead full steam.

    But there are certainly huge problems - and the official figures don't always show how bad it is. Chinese friends of mine tell me that the real increase in property prices is much greater than official figures show. There is massive building in advance of demand - which so far has paid off for developers.

    I think the real boobytrap for the Chinese economy is the lack of a decent tax base for local governments. Something like a third of local and regional finances (I can't recall the exact figure now) essentially comes from land seizures. They build a road or railway, financing it by 'purchasing' (i.e. taking) land from peasants, and using rising values from the infrastructure to pay for the road, with surplus for other expenditures. If land values go into reverse, these local governments will be horribly exposed, with no alternative sources of revenue to plug the holes. And since they control the banks, they will loot the banks to hide their embarrassment. Its potentially a very unstable system.

    That said, the Chinese have almost obsessively studied the other developed Asian nations, especially Japan, to see how they can avoid their pitfalls. The Chinese government have shown themselves to be remarkably smart at managing the economy so far - witness how they kept growth going strongly after 2007 - so they may yet manage to avoid a catastrophe. The growth in productivity is spectacular, this may allow them to do so. Unfortunately, they are also running into a series of energy and infrastructure bottlenecks which may cut off productivity growth.
    Doesnt it make ye laugh when lecturers say 'and china, the most marxist society in the world'..We all know where the few remaining marxist societies are: Vietnam and Latin America. China's crash will hit Ireland's exports bad, particularly our increasing numbers of fluent Chinese speaking Graduates.

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Dublin
    Posts
    289

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    Doesnt it make ye laugh when lecturers say 'and china, the most marxist society in the world'..We all know where the few remaining marxist societies are: Vietnam and Latin America. China's crash will hit Ireland's exports bad, particularly our increasing numbers of fluent Chinese speaking Graduates.
    Oh, I remember when everyone was supposed to learn Japanese (a much easier language, btw).

    Vietnam isn't Marxist anymore either - its been aping the Chinese system for the last 10 years or more, with a lot of success (if you consider seeing a vast area of land disappearing under factories and speculative developments 'success'). the Vietnamese government system is even more opaque than the Chinese one.

  10. #25
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Meath
    Posts
    8,385

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Yojimbo View Post
    Oh, I remember when everyone was supposed to learn Japanese (a much easier language, btw).

    Vietnam isn't Marxist anymore either - its been aping the Chinese system for the last 10 years or more, with a lot of success (if you consider seeing a vast area of land disappearing under factories and speculative developments 'success'). the Vietnamese government system is even more opaque than the Chinese one.
    so really the only successful marxist societies are to an extent cuba, and the latin american ones(most notably ecuador since the 08 default)?

  11. #26
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown
    Posts
    8,498

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    so really the only successful marxist societies are to an extent cuba, and the latin american ones(most notably ecuador since the 08 default)?
    meh, define successful.....

    Sorry, mate, but even the lads on welfare here probably have an arguably better standard of life than the Cubans (and yes, I personally know people on welfare).

    While I am all for sharing the proceeds of wealth creation via taxation and ensuring everyone has a decent education, access to healthcare and enough to eat, I do not believe that those who may have worked until their late twenties to gain a Ph.D. or an MBA etc deserve to be paid exactly the same as someone who chose to leave school at 16 and who may be reluctant to do a decent days work (there were 4% persistently unemployable people even during the boom; when we were importing foreign unskilled labour, there's little excuse for that).

    That is not to say that the current crop of people on the Dole are wasters; far from it, in a slump, there are plenty of valid excuses and we need to take good care of those guys

    But a communist utopia is NOT for me. Sorry, but there needs to be some incentive for hard work.

    Can't we adopt the Scandinavian model instead?? I'd really appreciate the cheap childcare.

  12. #27
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,343

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by morticia View Post
    meh, define successful.....

    Sorry, mate, but even the lads on welfare here probably have an arguably better standard of life than the Cubans (and yes, I personally know people on welfare).

    While I am all for sharing the proceeds of wealth creation via taxation and ensuring everyone has a decent education, access to healthcare and enough to eat, I do not believe that those who may have worked until their late twenties to gain a Ph.D. or an MBA etc deserve to be paid exactly the same as someone who chose to leave school at 16 and who may be reluctant to do a decent days work (there were 4% persistently unemployable people even during the boom; when we were importing foreign unskilled labour, there's little excuse for that).

    That is not to say that the current crop of people on the Dole are wasters; far from it, in a slump, there are plenty of valid excuses and we need to take good care of those guys

    But a communist utopia is NOT for me. Sorry, but there needs to be some incentive for hard work.

    Can't we adopt the Scandinavian model instead?? I'd really appreciate the cheap childcare.
    Of the 4% unemployed in the boom, some would have been "between jobs" for a very short time and some, I'm quite sure from personal knowledge, were using unemployment to act as carers, where there was a disabled spouse or similar situation. You might say that that is not what unemployment benefit is for, but imo, they were doing the right thing, often giving up higher paid work to keep a family together.

    The fact that unemployment went down to such low levels in the boom I would have thought is proof that people do want to work.

    Edit. I've looked for the lowest unemployment figure that Ireland reached. I found "less than 5%" for 2004 and I'm pretty sure it went down from there to less than 3%.
    Last edited by C. Flower; 16-04-2011 at 10:12 AM.

  13. #28
    Join Date
    Oct 2010
    Location
    Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown
    Posts
    8,498

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Why would one not take the carers allowance if one was acting as a carer?? I think you'd get ordinary unemployment assistance as well. I'm guessing this group is statistically accounted for, possibly with the exception of stay-at-home mothers; but in my experience, many of the stay at home mothers who chose to sit out the boom were partnering men with 6 figure salaries. Those with less moolah stayed at work.

    Yes, probably many would have been briefly in between jobs. However, the 4% has often been cited as "the unemployable"....and they are out there; take a look at the alcoholism and drug dependency figures.

  14. #29
    Join Date
    Aug 2010
    Location
    Dublin, Ireland
    Posts
    5,362

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Apjp View Post
    so really the only successful marxist societies are to an extent cuba, and the latin american ones(most notably ecuador since the 08 default)?
    Castro has recently commented that the Cuban model doesn't work anymore and interestingly has stated that the economic blockade cannot alone be blamed.

  15. #30
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Posts
    496

    Default Re: Chinese Bubble About To Burst ?

    The property bubble bursting in China would be very bad news for REO/Treasury Holdings , Johnny Ronan, Richard Barrett, NAMA and ultimately Irish citizens who are continuing to fund their hapless plans. Treasury are heavily borrowed in China and NAMA is relying on their Chinese friends to recoup some of the losses on the Battersea Power Station, dead in the water, development. NAMA should call in their loans pronto. They might recoup a few bob before it is too late.

Page 2 of 25 FirstFirst 123412 ... LastLast

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Share us
Follow Us