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Thread: Japan Election Result

  1. #1
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    Default Japan Election Result

    Looks like a done deal in Japan with the Democratic Party losing

    Japan's conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) surged back to power in an election on Sunday just three years after a devastating defeat, giving ex-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe a chance to push his hawkish security agenda and radical economic recipe.

    An LDP win will usher in a government committed to a tough stance in a territorial row with China, a pro-nuclear energy policy despite last year's Fukushima disaster and a potentially risky prescription for hyper-easy monetary policy and big fiscal spending to beat deflation and tame a strong yen.
    Exit polls by television broadcasters showed the LDP winning nearly 300 seats in parliament's powerful 480-member lower house, while its ally, the small New Komeito party, looked set to win about 30 seats.

    That would give the two parties the two-thirds majority needed to over-rule parliament's upper house, where they lack a majority and which can block bills, which would help to break a policy deadlock that has plagued the world's third biggest economy since 2007.
    Exit polls showed Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda's Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) winning only 65 seats, just over a fifth of its tally in 2009.

    The DPJ, which swept to power in 2009 promising to pay more heed to consumers than companies and reduce bureaucrats' control over policymaking, was hit by defections just before the vote.
    http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/1...8BE05F20121216
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Japan Election Result

    Japan is not Germany

    The Japanese Candidate That Promises Much More Inflation Has Won A HUGE Victory
    Although Abe is a conservative, a big part of his platform related to the Bank of Japan, and a mandate that it get more aggressive about specifically targeting inflation, and engaging in easing until it was hit (Japan has undergone many bouts of QE, start and stop, with mediocre effect.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/shinzo-abe-wins-2012-12
    Politics is the gentle art of getting votes from the poor and campaign funds from the rich, by promising to protect each from the other. ~Oscar Ameringer

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Japan Election Result

    In many ways this is sad - the LD is the Fianna Fail of Japan - even more so given that the Japanese political system is pretty much guaranteed to give the LD a majority.

    The real action happens within the LD factions. Abe is considered a weak leader, the creature of the nationalist right wing of the party. He seems willing to raise temperatures in disputes with China, although no doubt the US (and lots of others) will be hoping he is a bit more moderate when he gets into the hot seat.

    The other notable feature of his candidature is his embrace of a far more expansionary monetary policy. Certainly, a lot of economists have been arguing for a long time that the Central Bank in Japan has made the economy worse for 20 years by insisting on low inflation and a strong yen. It seems unlikely Abe would have proposed this if there wasn't a consensus building up behind him to do this (this is how Japanese politics works, no LD person says anything unless its been agreed behind the scenes with the movers and shakers). If so, it would be a very radical change - it could help finally flush a lot of debt out of the system and give a boost to domestic manufacturing. Its bad news however for many small savers, who are a very powerful block.

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Japan Election Result

    One of the best blogs for anyone trying to keep up with the horrible intricacies of Japanese politics and who all those old guys are is Shisaku:

    http://shisaku.blogspot.ie/

    He has an interesting and depressing take on the elections, something largely missed in the general reporting. A lot of old style ultra-nationalists have been elected and some are likely to be in powerful positions. This is likely (in particular) to cause a lot of upset in South Korea.

    http://shisaku.blogspot.ie/2012/12/w...azies-are.html

  5. #5
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    Default Re: Japan Election Result

    And to make things worse, Korea has now elected Park Geun-hye as their new president.

    She is the daughter of the former dictator and represents the most reactionary and conservative side of South Korean society. She openly models herself on Margaret Thatcher. She beat a liberal human rights activist by a marginal majority. The rural conservative vote wins out in yet another country.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...on?INTCMP=SRCH

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