Oct 27 Red C poll-FG 34(+2) FF 19(+1) Lab 13(-1) SF17(-1) Ind 17(-1)

[Saoirse go Deo]

What constituencies do you see the gains coming from?

Off the top of my head there were a fair few places were SF only narrowly missed out the last day. A few will take running mates, Gerry Adams definitely will. They will replace labour in a good few places I reckon.

The local elections will be important too, once the dust settles after that we'll have a clearer picture about where seats are likely or winnable.

[Andrew49]

19% of the population would continue to support FF even if FF proposed shooting them. 70+% of the population perplex me entirely. Perhaps it's a masochism thing...

[goatstoe]

If the polls continue in the trajectory they have been going, Fine Gael will need new partners to form the next government. It looks to me that the majority of the electorate want an FG/FF coalition. What other alternative coalition is there if Labour lose too many seats and can't form a coalition with FG?

[Apjp]

The ones who don't support tweedledum and tweedledee or support the party led by the pathological liar Adams. The others, though I don't support Labour or a lot of the independents I can at least understand.

As opposed to the other 3 pathological liars Gilmore Kenny and Martin?

[Andrew49]

Labour made a huge tactical error forming a government with Fine Gael. It seems the attraction to power outweighed serving the people. But that's Labour for you.

The poll will spur FG to pour more misery onto the vulnerable in the coming budget - avoiding any upset of their natural constituency.

[disability student]

Labour made a huge tactical error forming a government with Fine Gael. It seems the attraction to power outweighed serving the people. But that's Labour for you.

The poll will spur FG to pour more misery onto the vulnerable in the coming budget - avoiding any upset of their natural constituency.

It isn't over yet until fat lady sings with three more successive asuterity budgets to go with a combined CUTS of something like 9BN + until 2015.

FG have been using Howlin as minister for CUTS instead of Noonan in the last budget and the next December 2012 giving the public an impression that Lab will do all the dirty work/linen for FG.

[barrym]

Rise in FG support
Labour? Well.......


There has been a rise in support for Fine Gael, according to a Red C poll to be published in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post.

The poll also indicates that the Labour Party could be vulnerable to further erosion.

It was carried out between Monday and Wednesday.
It shows considerable stability in party support, though Fine Gael gains two points to 34%; Labour drops one to 13%, Fianna Fáil gains one to 19%, while both Sinn Féin and Independents and others drop one point to 17%.

Asked about the state of the country under the coalition, 41% said it was heading in the right direction, while 50% say it is on the wrong track, and 9% did not know.

Red C also asked how strongly committed supporters of the two coalition parties are.

39% of Fine Gael voters are loyal, while 46% say they are becoming disillusioned, and 15% are losing faith.



By contrast, only 14% of Labour voters are loyal, 52% are becoming disillusioned, and 34% say they are losing faith in the party.

Is it just me or doesn't the 'small print' indicate that the general public is VERY confused, 50% say the gov is on the wrong track but 34% would vote FG.....

FWIW, I think they say yes to the FG question to be agin FF, but that margin is falling..... while the rest, Lab, SF, Indos, is a mish mash of " I haven't clue..."

The issue in 2016 will be, as it always is, what's in it for me? FG will try to say we sorted the mess, FF will say they didn't. SF will say we have a better solution, and Lab will say, we were part of the turnaround.... Who would you vote for??

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

To be honest I believe Irish polls in the same way I believe Irish economic statistics. Conversation starters but not really worth lending too much credence.

Seems like only yesterday we were seeing stats and polls from a non-existent polling research company in the media in Ireland.

Also I noticed the sudden 'boom' in agricultural exports a year or two back in the figures and didn't believe them either as they arrived at just the right moment for the government.

Actually come to think of it I don't believe much in the way of polls or states in Ireland or anywhere else for that matter- having recently had a giggle at the US employment statistics reporting encouraging news shortly before the election there.

These are attempts at a static measurement of a meme world. Find a way to measure the wax and wane of memes and this kind of statistical endeavour is as dead as Sir Dead Lenihan Jr in the Dead Ground in County Dead. On a small Dead Island.

[Yojimbo]

A rough seat projection on the numbers based on a 158 seat Dail.


FG 64

FF 30

SF 26

LAB 19

IND 19

Interesting, but I would have thought Labour and SF (in particular) would do better in an election than FF on those basis, as their support would likely be more geographically concentrated. Labour might also benefit when push comes to shove by having more high profile names. It could result in a situation where FG has a three-way choice of partner (in reality of course, a two-way choice).

[Shaadi]

Interesting, but I would have thought Labour and SF (in particular) would do better in an election than FF on those basis, as their support would likely be more geographically concentrated. Labour might also benefit when push comes to shove by having more high profile names. It could result in a situation where FG has a three-way choice of partner (in reality of course, a two-way choice).

This particular poll is elevating FG on a temporary basis, it was taken in the aftermath of the Special case phone call between Merkel and Kenny. The non-ideological voters swung a little towards FG with the prospect of a deal on the debt being on the cards.

The worrying thing is that FF are coming back and as such they'll be less toxic than before, plus I'm convinced that FGs opinion poll ratings contain 2% or so of shy FF voters. There'll be much more FG to FF transfers this time as the conservative 50% block holds firm.

Labour are now in a similar position to where FF were in 2011. They stand to lose half their seats and will run too many candidates leaving themselves liable to undershoot the percentage vote to seat ratio, like FF did last time.

SF are building nicely, will take a lot of seats they came close to taking last time but tend to underperform opinion poll ratings on the day of an election.

Things will swing back again as the reality of the budget hits home and the realisation of the reality that any bank debt deal will be too little to soften the austerity.

FG/LAB after the next 4 budgets will have very little chance of actually having the numbers to form a Govt . Once FG drop below 30% on polling day, that's the end of any chance of a FG/LAB coalition without outside help.

[C. Flower]

Rise in FG support
Labour? Well.......


There has been a rise in support for Fine Gael, according to a Red C poll to be published in tomorrow's Sunday Business Post.

The poll also indicates that the Labour Party could be vulnerable to further erosion.

It was carried out between Monday and Wednesday.
It shows considerable stability in party support, though Fine Gael gains two points to 34%; Labour drops one to 13%, Fianna Fáil gains one to 19%, while both Sinn Féin and Independents and others drop one point to 17%.

Asked about the state of the country under the coalition, 41% said it was heading in the right direction, while 50% say it is on the wrong track, and 9% did not know.

Red C also asked how strongly committed supporters of the two coalition parties are.

39% of Fine Gael voters are loyal, while 46% say they are becoming disillusioned, and 15% are losing faith.

By contrast, only 14% of Labour voters are loyal, 52% are becoming disillusioned, and 34% say they are losing faith in the party.

Lack of serious opposition.

Was there a "plague on all your houses" option ?

[Greengoddess]

"Was there a "plague on all your houses" option ?"
This whole thing is like a political horror movie. Plagues, erosion ( like house on edge of cliff) etc. No doubt someone will say we are the walking dead soon! It is of course, true at this point. Saying that leaves one open to the accusation of " friendly fire" which is now a favorite line of attack. Military metaphors abound in Irish politics.

[unspecific]

FF-FG-Labour - 66 (+2)
SF - 17 (-1)
Inds & others - 17 (-1)

Margin of error stuff. I was very hesitant about keeping SF out of the FF-FG-Labour group too.

[C. Flower]

FF-FG-Labour - 66 (+2)
SF - 17 (-1)
Inds & others - 17 (-1)

Margin of error stuff. I was very hesitant about keeping SF out of the FF-FG-Labour group too.

The majority of FG and Labour voters say that the country is on the wrong track and that they are losing faith.

The question is, why is the left failing to win over any of these people ?
Looking at the ULA, disappearing up its own rear end to investigate one off-standard member, while tens of thousands of people are awake all night wondering if they will eat/keep their home/keep their job, it is not surprising. I am glad that the unaligned have held steady, but they will have to do the work in the ULA on presenting a practical and convincing alternative programme to the FG/Lab route, before they will get support. Sinn Fein is asking a lot of good questions of Government, but again, I suspect it is the lack of a programme that people can believe in that is the problem.

Also, radical change of the system and to taking on the world powers in challenging the present one, is a huge job. People I think intuitively know that to do so would mean very likely things getting worse before they got better. They will not take a chance on anything sketchy.

When they feel in sufficient numbers that things can't get worse, and if they see a coherent and credible left alternative, the left - and from some quarters the hard right - would win support.

Asked about the state of the country under the coalition, 41% said it was heading in the right direction, while 50% say it is on the wrong track, and 9% did not know.

Red C also asked how strongly committed supporters of the two coalition parties are.

39% of Fine Gael voters are loyal, while 46% say they are becoming disillusioned, and 15% are losing faith.

By contrast, only 14% of Labour voters are loyal, 52% are becoming disillusioned, and 34% say they are losing faith in the party.

[unspecific]

The majority of FG and Labour voters say that the country is on the wrong track and that they are losing faith.

The question is, why is the left failing to win over any of these people ?

Serious, responsible upper/middle classers are all for being sensible and balancing the budget until that translates into attacks on them ;-)

I think people see Sinn Fein as radical(not long ago were engaged in a guerilla war), and they're dominating the working class vote. They're established, have social roots, are very coherent and well-organized. People were always going to look to them next. The left is doing very well in a different poll tho - the movement its putting all of its resources into translates into the campaign against property and water taxes - about 50% of people are voting no to that. We'll look at elections when they're on the agenda, but the only purpose of the Dail is to get people watching at home active - and they're already doing that so its not urgent.

Looking at the ULA, disappearing up its own rear end to investigate one off-standard member, while tens of thousands of people are awake all night wondering if they will eat/keep their home/keep their job, it is not surprising. I am glad that the unaligned have held steady, but they will have to do the work in the ULA on presenting a practical and convincing alternative programme to the FG/Lab route, before they will get support. Sinn Fein is asking a lot of good questions of Government, but again, I suspect it is the lack of a programme that people can believe in that is the problem.

Also, radical change of the system and to taking on the world powers in challenging the present one, is a huge job. People I think intuitively know that to do so would mean very likely things getting worse before they got better. They will not take a chance on anything sketchy.

When they feel in sufficient numbers that things can't get worse, and if they see a coherent and credible left alternative, the left - and from some quarters the hard right - would win support.

Not going to lie, the lack of the development of the ULA has been disappointing. But the project has been to draw more people into activism and organizing - thats a problem for every party. The Left - for all its problems - is probably close to a thousand people, with very little profile. But the likes of Labour who have been around for a century were only ever a few multiiples of that.