IPSOS MRBI Oct 17 2012 FG 31% FF 21% SF 20% : Lab 12% Ind 16% - 73% dissat with Gov

[Ogiol]

Thanks for the analysis. It certainly makes sense that the animosity between grass root labout and fg will see a huge reduction in transfers come hte next election. SF need to radicalize and stop being wishy washy on loads of issues. Who cares if the media lackys rip the arse out of them, the people want radical change and now that the ULA seems to be imploding (pity) they could well pick up around 10% of their votes IF they let the younger, more radical generation make their mark on the party.

FFS, youd have to be blind to not see that the real radical left all around europe are gaining hugely. Look at SYRIZA in Greece, IU in Spain, Bildu in basque country, Melenchons party in France and Die Linke in Germany. All of these parties are well on the way to becoming powerful/majority parties in their respective countries and they would've been considered wako-leftists just a few short years ago. European countries' peoples are pissed and are, as polities, looking for REAL change, i.e. radical, democratic, socialist, left politics. SF need to get with the flow, and even moreso as the aul FF/FG dichotimy is about to implode. That, or the ULA gets it act together.

And if not, we'll see a new PD's or Ganley filling the gap and really destroying the country (culturally this time).

[homer]

Ogiol

I think we are a more conservative country than most other European countries.

I really don't see a major left political force emerging.

I remember Labour saying in the 1960's that the seventies would be socialist, and David Thornley's retort that the socialists would be seventy first. I had met DT - brilliant man with great sence of humour. Died before his time.

SF have still the whiff of gunpowder, and criminality, which will hold them back electorally. They had some good academics in their camp years ago - Roy Johnstone for example. Not now it seems.

ULA don't count outside a few constituencies.

I think there will be movement between FG and FF and v v . If the Govt collapses over the coming budget, FG would dp well. and may form a govt with FF support inside or outside

[Ogiol]

Ogiol

I think we are a more conservative country than most other European countries.

I really don't see a major left political force emerging.

I remember Labour saying in the 1960's that the seventies would be socialist, and David Thornley's retort that the socialists would be seventy first. I had met DT - brilliant man with great sence of humour. Died before his time.

SF have still the whiff of gunpowder, and criminality, which will hold them back electorally. They had some good academics in their camp years ago - Roy Johnstone for example. Not now it seems.

ULA don't count outside a few constituencies.

I think there will be movement between FG and FF and v v . If the Govt collapses over the coming budget, FG would dp well. and may form a govt with FF support inside or outside

I dont think that we are more conservative ''innately'' than other european countries. I do think though, if, as you predict (and i agree) that FG and FF go into power together then the whole house will come down. See the oppositional positions of those two parties is what has defined the republic since its birth. If that collapses then all the previous patterns upon which we predict politics in the republic will be worth nothing and there will be an oportunity to redefine the country's politics and thus the country.

See the FF FG paradigm is the pillar of the present republic. What happens when that collapses will not follow past patterns.

[morticia]

See the FF FG paradigm is the pillar of the present republic. What happens when that collapses will not follow past patterns.

Now that might be really fascinating. If it happens. Hmmm

[homer]

I dont think that we are more conservative ''innately'' than other european countries. I do think though, if, as you predict (and i agree) that FG and FF go into power together then the whole house will come down. See the oppositional positions of those two parties is what has defined the republic since its birth. If that collapses then all the previous patterns upon which we predict politics in the republic will be worth nothing and there will be an oportunity to redefine the country's politics and thus the country.

See the FF FG paradigm is the pillar of the present republic. What happens when that collapses will not follow past patterns.

Reply

I think the political success of the Land League thru which every tenant farmer became a freehold owner without being beholden to any landlord still influences present day politics. No "peasantry" subservient to the local aristocracy, therefore no recruiting ground for socialism.

I knew some of the men who were involved in the War of Independence and were out in the Flying Column. They were well known, and their names recorded by the RIC etc. They had their land to go back to, and knew it could not be taken from them by the British or anyone else.

Thus movements such as the Limerick Soviet etc never got much traction, and rural Ireland was stony ground for socialism..

FG were indentified with the business and professional classes and larger farmers.

FF claimed to represent the small farmers and working classes. They of course also grew support amongst the business and professionals etc in later years..

As Labour at least outside Dublin was and is also conservative I really think this "growth of the left " is just an Irish Times pipedream.

I can see these three parties accentuating their differences at election times, and retaining power within some combination of the three of them. They wont easily collapse, strong organisations for generations on the ground.

[morticia]

I don't know. What I would predict in the long term is that there will be massive protest, probably of a political nature. We may still be represented by the three main parties, or perhaps by a FF-FG merged, SF, and a Left grouping. It won't matter. The minute the generation who suffered the worst of the boom time mortgages become a majority in the Dail, the EU powers that be had better watch their step. I would expect some pretty passive aggressive, or even overtly aggressive moves to stymie the EU in some shape or form. People here are pragmatists and they'll take the path that keeps them to the minimum of hassle for a long while. However, as the British found to their cost eventually, memories are long too, and pain is not easily forgotten, particularly where property is concerned.

I wouldn't be surprised if, when the economy does eventually improve, that some enterprising Celtic tiger cub politician decides to stick two fingers up at the EU, and enters some sort of arrangement with the US or even UK, should they also want to make a break with Brussels.

The Germans won't know what hit them.

[Ogiol]

Reply

I think the political success of the Land League thru which every tenant farmer became a freehold owner without being beholden to any landlord still influences present day politics. No "peasantry" subservient to the local aristocracy, therefore no recruiting ground for socialism.

I knew some of the men who were involved in the War of Independence and were out in the Flying Column. They were well known, and their names recorded by the RIC etc. They had their land to go back to, and knew it could not be taken from them by the British or anyone else.

Thus movements such as the Limerick Soviet etc never got much traction, and rural Ireland was stony ground for socialism..

FG were indentified with the business and professional classes and larger farmers.

FF claimed to represent the small farmers and working classes. They of course also grew support amongst the business and professionals etc in later years..

As Labour at least outside Dublin was and is also conservative I really think this "growth of the left " is just an Irish Times pipedream.

I can see these three parties accentuating their differences at election times, and retaining power within some combination of the three of them. They wont easily collapse, strong organisations for generations on the ground.

I don't know. What I would predict in the long term is that there will be massive protest, probably of a political nature. We may still be represented by the three main parties, or perhaps by a FF-FG merged, SF, and a Left grouping. It won't matter. The minute the generation who suffered the worst of the boom time mortgages become a majority in the Dail, the EU powers that be had better watch their step. I would expect some pretty passive aggressive, or even overtly aggressive moves to stymie the EU in some shape or form. People here are pragmatists and they'll take the path that keeps them to the minimum of hassle for a long while. However, as the British found to their cost eventually, memories are long too, and pain is not easily forgotten, particularly where property is concerned.

I wouldn't be surprised if, when the economy does eventually improve, that some enterprising Celtic tiger cub politician decides to stick two fingers up at the EU, and enters some sort of arrangement with the US or even UK, should they also want to make a break with Brussels.

The Germans won't know what hit them.

I know its all ''I think'' business. But i do believe that globalisation has fundamentally changed the ballgame. We are no longer only Irish, and infact globalisation for us has mainly resulted in a new form of anglisiciation (huge exposure to british and american media) but it has also come with a natural reaction to this which can be best exemplified by the destigmatising of the irish language and hte gaelscoil movement.

Anyhow, things have changed and we are now being progressively internationalised (in the best and worst sense of the term). In that case, maybe morticia is right and we'll eventually reenter the anglosphere and basically finally take ourselves as an anglo-nation, breaking with 2000 years of tradition. But there will always be a residual questioning of what we are, and the feeling that something doesnt fit.

I would like to hope that by FF and FG finally forming a government, and thus breaking the devaleran republic that we will enter a period of flux which will enable us to redefine ourselves. Maybe we will finally shed the lingering celticism that we all have in our subconscience or maybe we will se a rebirth of our cultural roots and redefining of our nationality and thus our independence. I dont know which will occour but if what you say, morticia, happens, then I no longer want to be Irish and we might as well drop the pretext of being an independent country.

Dev and Collins wanted independence for a reason, and that was because they knew we were not english, Im not so sure my generation is as sure about that as they were. We will see though. If Sinn Féin radicalises and capitalise on the collapse of the old regime then everything is possible. If however, FF, FG and Lab continue limping onward then I dont see much hope for a more just future.

[Slim Buddha]

I don't know. What I would predict in the long term is that there will be massive protest, probably of a political nature. We may still be represented by the three main parties, or perhaps by a FF-FG merged, SF, and a Left grouping. It won't matter. The minute the generation who suffered the worst of the boom time mortgages become a majority in the Dail, the EU powers that be had better watch their step. I would expect some pretty passive aggressive, or even overtly aggressive moves to stymie the EU in some shape or form. People here are pragmatists and they'll take the path that keeps them to the minimum of hassle for a long while. However, as the British found to their cost eventually, memories are long too, and pain is not easily forgotten, particularly where property is concerned.

I wouldn't be surprised if, when the economy does eventually improve, that some enterprising Celtic tiger cub politician decides to stick two fingers up at the EU, and enters some sort of arrangement with the US or even UK, should they also want to make a break with Brussels.

The Germans won't know what hit them.

Really? Whatever about German politicians, ordinary Germans look upon Ireland and the UK as semi-detached members of the EU. The Celtic Tiger was a glorification of Anglo-Saxon neo-liberal economics, a rejection of European consensus-style policy making and large "two fingers" to the EU. After all, one of the main policymakers of Irish neo-liberalist economic policy informed us that "We are closer to Boston than Berlin".If some "enterprising Celtic tiger cub politician decides to stick two fingers up at the EU" as you put it, many in Europe will be happy to see it go.

As it is, Ireland is like some ghastly 51st state/West Brit hybrid, brainwashed with Anglo-Saxon economics, mindless celebrity culture, inarticulate rage against the EU and possessed of a point blank refusal to reform the institutions which failed the people and crashed the economy.

It would not really be a case of the Germans not knowing what hit them. They really couldn´t care less. As for entering some arrangement with the US and/or UK, a drive around any industrial estate/business park will illustrate the arrangement with the US and a day in a shopping centre around the M50 will show you the extent to which the UK high street has entrenched itself in the Irish retail sector.

The arrangement is already there.

[Apjp]

Thanks for the analysis. It certainly makes sense that the animosity between grass root labout and fg will see a huge reduction in transfers come hte next election. SF need to radicalize and stop being wishy washy on loads of issues. Who cares if the media lackys rip the arse out of them, the people want radical change and now that the ULA seems to be imploding (pity) they could well pick up around 10% of their votes IF they let the younger, more radical generation make their mark on the party.

FFS, youd have to be blind to not see that the real radical left all around europe are gaining hugely. Look at SYRIZA in Greece, IU in Spain, Bildu in basque country, Melenchons party in France and Die Linke in Germany. All of these parties are well on the way to becoming powerful/majority parties in their respective countries and they would've been considered wako-leftists just a few short years ago. European countries' peoples are pissed and are, as polities, looking for REAL change, i.e. radical, democratic, socialist, left politics. SF need to get with the flow, and even moreso as the aul FF/FG dichotimy is about to implode. That, or the ULA gets it act together.

And if not, we'll see a new PD's or Ganley filling the gap and really destroying the country (culturally this time).

Ogiol, melenchons party in France came a distant 4th well behind the French Fascist Front nationale in the recent presidential elections. As for us, This country does not need an extremist fascist party as we are already a colony controlled by the fascists in Brussels and Berlin and the bankers in Frankfurt.

[Greengoddess]

This is a depressing and indeed scary thread. All I can see is a great big political singularity ahead.

[Apjp]

I don't know. What I would predict in the long term is that there will be massive protest, probably of a political nature. We may still be represented by the three main parties, or perhaps by a FF-FG merged, SF, and a Left grouping. It won't matter. The minute the generation who suffered the worst of the boom time mortgages become a majority in the Dail, the EU powers that be had better watch their step. I would expect some pretty passive aggressive, or even overtly aggressive moves to stymie the EU in some shape or form. People here are pragmatists and they'll take the path that keeps them to the minimum of hassle for a long while. However, as the British found to their cost eventually, memories are long too, and pain is not easily forgotten, particularly where property is concerned.

I wouldn't be surprised if, when the economy does eventually improve, that some enterprising Celtic tiger cub politician decides to stick two fingers up at the EU, and enters some sort of arrangement with the US or even UK, should they also want to make a break with Brussels.

The Germans won't know what hit them.

I'd agree with Homer etc. that we may as well give up the pretence of being an independent nation if we exchange current rulers, to become a complete satellite of Britain or America.

What part of independence and nationality don't imply standing on your own two feet and finding your own unique place in the world?

[Slim Buddha]

This is a depressing and indeed scary thread. All I can see is a great big political singularity ahead.

I have to agree. Then again, Ireland is a scary place. Dominated economically, culturally, linguistically, in the media, in ideas, and in orientation by the UK and the USA, it is a place with no semblance of self-determination. Sold out by the previous government, in hock for decades to anonymous bondholders, deluded to the nth degree about its education system and ability to attract enduring investment, it is a place desperately in need of inspiring leadership.

Instead we get insipid schoolteachers and a bland ex-trade union official doing the bidding of banks and bureaucrats sitting in offices far away.

Yes, greengoddess, it is very depressing

[homer]

Interesting posts - work intrudes, but I generally agree with Slim Buddha post no 53

[Shaadi]

Really? Whatever about German politicians, ordinary Germans look upon Ireland and the UK as semi-detached members of the EU. The Celtic Tiger was a glorification of Anglo-Saxon neo-liberal economics, a rejection of European consensus-style policy making and large "two fingers" to the EU. After all, one of the main policymakers of Irish neo-liberalist economic policy informed us that "We are closer to Boston than Berlin".If some "enterprising Celtic tiger cub politician decides to stick two fingers up at the EU" as you put it, many in Europe will be happy to see it go.

As it is, Ireland is like some ghastly 51st state/West Brit hybrid, brainwashed with Anglo-Saxon economics, mindless celebrity culture, inarticulate rage against the EU and possessed of a point blank refusal to reform the institutions which failed the people and crashed the economy.

It would not really be a case of the Germans not knowing what hit them. They really couldn´t care less. As for entering some arrangement with the US and/or UK, a drive around any industrial estate/business park will illustrate the arrangement with the US and a day in a shopping centre around the M50 will show you the extent to which the UK high street has entrenched itself in the Irish retail sector.

The arrangement is already there.

We're neither fish nor fowl, culturally hiberno-anglo-american and psychologically unable to contemplate that the end of the EEC/EU cheques has already been decided.

We'll stay with one foot in each camp, because we don't have an Independent national identity. We are paralysed by the effects of decades of economic and cultural dependency on the EU/Anglosphere. We don't know who the hell we are anymore and we'll be anyones bitches that can flash the chequebook at us.

A sad state of affairs with all the centenary celebrations coming up.