GNP down 1.3%, GDP down 1.1% for first quarter of 2012

[PaddyJoe]

Dismal enough figures comparing Q1 2012 to Q4 2011 to be released by the CSO Thursday 12 July. However, It does appear that growth in 2011 was better than previously thought and has been revised upwards to 1.4%.
Somehow the figures were released prematurely by the CSO and published on its website for around 15 minutes on Wednesday. RTE got hold of them and ran the story.

Personal spending fell by 2.2%, while government spending fell by 3.3%. Capital investment increased by 8% compared with the first quarter of 2011, and there was a large increase in net exports (exports minus imports) of + €1.99 billion.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0711/ire...-business.html

There IT seems to have been smoking hopium and interpreted the figures in a very different way:

DAN O'BRIEN, Economics Editor, and MARY MINIHAN

THE DOMESTIC economy grew for the first time in two years in the first three months of 2012, according to figures published accidentally yesterday on the website of the Central Statistics Office.

Yesterday’s figures on the economy show that domestic demand grew by 1.5 per cent between the first three months of 2012 and the final three months of 2011.

Domestic demand includes spending by consumers, the Government and companies. It excludes exports and imports.

The figures are adjusted to smooth out seasonal effects, such as increased spending in the lead-up to Christmas.

No one measure is considered the best gauge of what is happening in an economy, but GDP is the most closely watched internationally.

The Central Statistics Office also substantially revised its figures for previous years, painting a better picture about the economy than previously.

Developments in GDP, GNP and domestic demand were less negative than estimated by the CSO in its last quarterly publication.

The seventh quarterly review of the State’s ongoing compliance with the bailout programme will conclude today. It is understood that the troika will praise the Government but raise concerns about spending overruns in health

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...319862378.html

Someone very suspicious might suspect that the figures were deliberately leaked a day early so that the usual suspects would have time to get their spin coordinated

[PaddyJoe]

The seventh Troika Review press conference is coming up shortly and will be streamed live on http://merrionstreet.ie.
Noonan and Howlin I presume. There should be some serious spinning on these CSO figures.

[Sam Lord]

I had to read the IT article 3 times. I thought perhaps a different set of figures had been released.

They even say in the article that GDP is what is looked at internationally ... but they headline something else entirely about the figures.

It is the worst sort of conscious media manipulation of public perception.

[disability student]

[quote]

Dismal enough figures comparing Q1 2012 to Q4 2011 to be released by the CSO Thursday 12 July. However, It does appear that growth in 2011 was better than previously thought and has been revised upwards to 1.4%.
Somehow the figures were released prematurely by the CSO and published on its website for around 15 minutes on Wednesday. RTE got hold of them and ran the story.

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0711/ire...-business.html

There IT seems to have been smoking hopium and interpreted the figures in a very different way:

That's wasn't the first time that CSO did it if memory serves me correctly.

DOB of IT have been looking at it with a cup of half full with plenty spin as if he thinks Joe public are stupid. GNP is the true measure of our economy in contrast to other countries, who have used their economic indicator measure of GDP.

Figures were bit slightly odd as they are prone to revisions.

Would have another look at it later.

[Holly]

The Irish economy has fllatlined and cannot recover while attempting to cover the zombie bank debts.

[DCon]

Not good

Reuters: Ireland slashes 2013 GDP forecast

Growth now seen at 1.4% versus earlier forecast for 2.2% growth

http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...-gdp-forecast/

[PaddyJoe]

Not good



http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2012/1...-gdp-forecast/

The DOF didn't really have a choice since the IMF lowered the Irish 2013 growth figure to 1.1% last week.
Funny how the government never revises the figures down unilaterally

[PaddyJoe]

EU cuts growth figures once again. Noonan's December budget was based on much more optimistic predictions.

EU commissioner Olli Rehn will examine whether the Government should take additional budget measures next year after cutting his Irish growth forecast and saying the euro zone economy will hardly grow at all in 2013.

Although Dublin is wedded to a €3.5 billion “adjustment” target in next month’s budget, Mr Rehn left open the possibility that a slightly bigger package might be required in light of his new figures.

“Whether this will have any impact on the fiscal consolidation path has to be assessed in the coming period,” the commissioner said when asked whether a larger consolidation might now be needed.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...326307826.html