New Galway East

[birdy]

The proposed new Galway East const. looks like it will shake everything up a bit. (con tribune )

[Dr. FIVE]

Was just talking about it here
Dropping one seat from four to three with east of the suck going into Roscommon to maintain the population for a three seater and Oranmore and Claregalway coming into East.

Mixed fortunes for FG and makes the possible Keaveney/Higgins battle more interesting

[birdy]

Most of keaveneys area seems safe but Higgins will have a new area to draw from if she is interested. I fairness to Keaveney he certainly seems to be out and about and is a pro at getting media coverage , whether deserved or not.

[homer]

Is there definite information on these changes or is it all speculation?

[birdy]

Is there definite information on these changes or is it all speculation?

It out now. It looks like Tuam area is fairly isolated and then Galway south is fairly intact. Would suggest 1 north TD and 2 central/south. It will certainly shake things up.

[Shaadi]

The Ballinasloe and hinterland chunk that's being taken out of East Galway will have a strange effect on the constituency.

2011 general election: Galway East[22]
Party Candidate % 1st Pref Count 1 Count 2 Count 3 Count 4 Count 5 Count 6 Count 7 Count 8 Count 9
Fianna Fáil Michael P. Kitt 11.1 6,585 6,632 6,860 9,526 9,793 10,223 11,115 12,850
Fine Gael Paul Connaughton, Jnr 12.2 7,255 7,310 7,552 7,802 8,091 9,824 10,877 12,610
Fine Gael Ciarán Cannon 11.7 6,927 7,061 7,268 7,565 8,125 9,962 10,279 11,861
Labour Party Colm Keaveney 7.2 4,254 4,344 4,693 4,785 7,236 7,469 8,636 9,806 10,126
Fine Gael Tom McHugh 9.8 5,832 5,868 5,950 6,034 6,125 6,736 8,371 8,665 8,848
Independent Tim Broderick 8.7 5,137 5,242 6,278 6,516 6,846 7,641 8,365
Independent Seán Canney 9.4 5,567 5,645 5,940 6,127 6,341 6,431
Fine Gael Jimmy McClearn 9.1 5,395 5,440 5,634 5,778 5,987
Labour Party Lorraine Higgins 6.0 3,577 3,813 4,423 4,651
Fianna Fáil Michael F. Dolan 6.9 4,109 4,155 4,290
Sinn Féin Dermot Connolly 6.1 3,635 3,723
Independent Emer O'Donnell 1.0 601
Green Party Ciarán Kennedy 0.7 402
Electorate: 83,651 Valid: 59,276 Spoilt: 560 (0.9%) Quota: 11,856 Turnout: 59,836 (71.5%)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galway_...n_constituency)

The chunk that's being taken will knock out Tim Broderick IND. Seriously damage Kitt and Connaughton and take the SF candidate Dermot Connolly out of the constituency

Ciaran Cannon FG should be safe, there should be a FF seat for Kitt or Dolan. Will either of Labours two candidates Keaveny and Higgins be able to take a seat if Labour continue to decline in the polls. Sean Canney IND has a fair chance of taking the third seat.

This is going to really pee off the the people in East Galway who're being moved into Roscommon, there's a fair chunk of anti-septic tank and bog protester votes coming Roscommons way. Ming will be laughing.

[Cato]

Will either of Labours two candidates Keaveny and Higgins be able to take a seat if Labour continue to decline in the polls. Sean Canney IND has a fair chance of taking the third seat.

What makes you think that there will be two Labour candidates in the new three-seater Galway East constituency?

[Shaadi]

What makes you think that there will be two Labour candidates in the new three-seater Galway East constituency?

The North-South divide in the constituency, it'd be better to run the two and have them act as sweepers for each other. The sitting Labour TD Keaveney won't be dropped in favour of Higgins and Higgins is too ambitious to sit on the sidelines. Higgins could benefit from the inclusion of Oranmore and the name recognition of being a Senator.

The constituency is looking very messy, Keaveney and Higgins have as good a chance as any of being elected on geography alone.

[Cato]

The North-South divide in the constituency, it'd be better to run the two and have them act as sweepers for each other. The sitting Labour TD Keaveney won't be dropped in favour of Higgins and Higgins is too ambitious to sit on the sidelines. Higgins could benefit from the inclusion of Oranmore and the name recognition of being a Senator.

The constituency is looking very messy, Keaveney and Higgins have as good a chance as any of being elected on geography alone.

It was thought that Oranmore would come into Galway East, but did not. Higgins has spent the past year and a bit working hard in Ballinasloe. It's where her main constituency office was but now it has been moved into the new Roscommon-Galway constituency.

Labour didn't run a two candidate strategy in any constituency outside Dublin in the last election. I cannot see them doing it in Galway East next time.

[Dr. FIVE]

She could stand for FF yet, who knows

[Shaadi]

She could stand for FF yet, who knows

I think we may be giving her more credit than she's really due. She came 11th out of 13 candidates on first preferences with as fair a wind behind Labour as there is ever likely to be. FF are hardly likely to run two South Galway candidates and they'll need to build a North Galway base if Kitt doesn't run again.

What will happen with SF in the constituency? They got 6.1% with a low profile candidate last time. With their vote rising Nationally, 10%+ would be on the cards but who will run for them? Connoly should be at too big a disadvantage after the constituency lost Ballinasloe for SF to even consider running him.

[Dr. FIVE]

just referring to

http://www.galwaynews.ie/26173-labou...denies-move-ff

Political sources have told the Connacht Tribune that a series of meetings have taken place in recent weeks between Fianna Fáil officials and the Athenry-based barrister – who was nominated to the Seanad by party leader and Tánaiste Eamon Gilmore.

Sources said that talks were brokered by an FF activist as the party was keen to have a strong female candidate when the ‘gender quotas’ are introduced for the next General Election – women must make up 30% of party candidates by the next election.

[Shaadi]

It was thought that Oranmore would come into Galway East, but did not. Higgins has spent the past year and a bit working hard in Ballinasloe. It's where her main constituency office was but now it has been moved into the new Roscommon-Galway constituency.

Labour didn't run a two candidate strategy in any constituency outside Dublin in the last election. I cannot see them doing it in Galway East next time.

In the 2011 GE Higgins gave Keaveny just under 2500 transfers or approx 40% of the transfers he needed to reach a quota. It'd be a big risk to just assume that those votes would still make their way to Keaveney without Higgins to sweep them up. It might be better to run Higgins so as to stop another candidate collecting those votes and one who could be ahead of Keaveny at the elimination stage.

[Baron von Biffo]

In the 2011 GE Higgins gave Keaveny just under 2500 transfers or approx 40% ofthe transfers he needed to reach a quota. It'd be a big risk to just assume that those votes would still make their way to Keaveney without Higgins to sweep them up. It might be better to run Higgins so as to stop another candidate collecting those votes and one who could be ahead of Keaveny at the elimination stage.

Not to mention the government quota.

[Shaadi]

just referring to

http://www.galwaynews.ie/26173-labou...denies-move-ff

It's a definite possibility, she's the type of bright young candidate that comes with a ready made personal vote and no FF baggage.