Another referendum on EU fiscal convergence in 2012?

[PaddyJoe]

It certainly looks like there's every possibility of one:
EUROPEAN OFFICIALS are examining a new revision of the EU treaties to create a “fiscal union” in which member states would transfer another swathe of budgetary powers to the authorities in Brussels.

Tentative discussions on a reopening of the treaties reflect concerns in Germany that member states must now go further to align their fiscal policies than was foreseen in the fiscal treaty, which was agreed only months ago.

The senior diplomat said this process was likely to result in the core elements of national budgetary policy being subsumed into a wider European policy in a system grounded in the treaties.

“The impression I get from various German sources is that they are not going to put their money on the table in return for vague promises,” the diplomat said.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...318058038.html

[Ah Well]

It certainly looks like there's every possibility of one:
EUROPEAN OFFICIALS are examining a new revision of the EU treaties to create a “fiscal union” in which member states would transfer another swathe of budgetary powers to the authorities in Brussels.



http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...318058038.html

I predict an Irish Yes Vote for this one

And the one after that

etc etc etc

[ang]

There are a few treaties to arrive yet. Fiscal Union, Political Union.....Full Control.

Question is which one frightens the Irish Govt and the reality of their lack of purpose once agenda complete.

[Slim Buddha]

I predict an Irish Yes Vote for this one

And the one after that

etc etc etc

Unfortunately, I think you are right. But I live in hope that we see anger triumph over fear.

[C. Flower]

Unfortunately, I think you are right. But I live in hope that we see anger triumph over fear.

I think people will need a clear and (at least possibly) viable alternative put in front of them, before voting No.

[Greengoddess]

I think people will need a clear and (at least possibly) viable alternative put in front of them, before voting No.

Yes. We have run out of options. It will be like those movies with people in life rafts who all hate each other. Fine refernendum that will be.

[C. Flower]

Yes. We have run out of options. It will be like those movies with people in life rafts who all hate each other. Fine refernendum that will be.

Well, at the moment, some are better off than ever, on dry land and other lucky ones have life rafts. The rest are in the water.

A plan that gives people assurance, or work, homes, education, health and food is needed.

I see that the IMF says Ireland will default unless there is a bank debt write down. Is that generally admitted now, do you know, in the Labour leadership ?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...reaking45.html

[morticia]

I think people will need a clear and (at least possibly) viable alternative put in front of them, before voting No.

Yes. Given the fact that the financial system is now too complicated to be entirely predictable, I am unclear as to whether it is possible to come up with one that doesn't endanger the ATMs and the food and fuel supplies. If we want out, we need to play a long game and wait until we are solvent again before exercising choice.

The choice may well be between London and Berlin even so. Having lived in the Uk recently, I am pretty sure we wouldn't benefit from being subsumed into their Celtic fringe. Everything is run for the benefit of London and a privately educated elite.

Germany at least is lacking the vestiges of a hereditary aristocracy.

On the other hand, it is entirely likely that the whole system collapses before any of this stuff goes through EU national parliaments. Which in practice means that London is chosen for us, probably

[Slim Buddha]

Germany at least is lacking the vestiges of a hereditary aristocracy.

I don't think so!!!

It is just much better hidden, as might be expected in a republic. But it IS there, no doubt about it.

[C. Flower]

Yes. Given the fact that the financial system is now too complicated to be entirely predictable, I am unclear as to whether it is possible to come up with one that doesn't endanger the ATMs and the food and fuel supplies. If we want out, we need to play a long game and wait until we are solvent again before exercising choice.

Well, some peoples' fuel supplies and access to ATMs are long gone, and food supplies hanging on by a wing and a prayer. The next budget will hit social welfare - so tendentious that the IMF says it will be "politically (i.e. humanly) unsustainable, without haircuts for the banking debt and more equitable sharing of cuts in living standards. If it wasn't clear before now that FG/Lab is to the right of the Troika, this should make it clear.

Waiting is not a good option. States that have their economic backs broken don't recover. Argentina was once one of the worlds' weathiest countries. Haiti was once full of a wealth of natural resources - stripped out down to the loss of their topsoil at this stage. The German/IMF agenda isn't recovery of peoples' living standards, it's reinforcement of the neoliberal regime that let the boom rip in the first place. A smaller but richer wealthy class and a mass of impoverished wage slaves. This implies that there will be hammer blows aimed at democratic rights, as it will not be "politically sustainable." The same is happening in the US.

The choice may well be between London and Berlin even so. Having lived in the Uk recently, I am pretty sure we wouldn't benefit from being subsumed into their Celtic fringe. Everything is run for the benefit of London and a privately educated elite.

+1

Germany at least is lacking the vestiges of a hereditary aristocracy.

There is a scattering of Grafs and Grafins ( I met one in Ireland recently) but by and large the GMBH (Ltd. Co.)is the thing.

On the other hand, it is entirely likely that the whole system collapses before any of this stuff goes through EU national parliaments. Which in practice means that London is chosen for us, probably

Interesting. What makes you think London, and who is doing the choosing ?

[Slim Buddha]

There is a scattering of Grafs and Grafins ( I met one in Ireland recently) but by and large the GMBH (Ltd. Co.)is the thing.

It is a bit more than a scattering, Cass. Look at the way German companies are set up. They have "Aufsichts" with are supervisory bodies and many DAX companies have Fursts and Grafs appointed to them. Germany has a surprising number of private banks (Sal Oppenheimer, for example) where "traditional" money can be found.

The gossip column's may occasionally feature Gloria von Thurn und Taxis from time to time but they vast majority of these people live in the shadows. But they're there!

[Greengoddess]

Well, at the moment, some are better off than ever, on dry land and other lucky ones have life rafts. The rest are in the water.

A plan that gives people assurance, or work, homes, education, health and food is needed.

I see that the IMF says Ireland will default unless there is a bank debt write down. Is that generally admitted now, do you know, in the Labour leadership ?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...reaking45.html

Not out loud. Some of us have said it in public recently. Hints from Colm Keveaney and Michael McNamara . It is easier for me because I exist in Europe. But labour is seemingly invisible in this area of negotiation.
This must change . We will have to force FG to take action. However we seem to have lost all sense that we can exercise leverage in the coalition . There must be peace at all costs, even to destruction. No doubt some of this is vested interests for a few .......

[Greengoddess]

Well, at the moment, some are better off than ever, on dry land and other lucky ones have life rafts. The rest are in the water.

A plan that gives people assurance, or work, homes, education, health and food is needed.

I see that the IMF says Ireland will default unless there is a bank debt write down. Is that generally admitted now, do you know, in the Labour leadership ?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...reaking45.html

A Marshall Plan.

[C. Flower]

A Marshall Plan.

Not permitted under the Fiscal Stability Treaty.

[Greengoddess]

Not permitted under the Fiscal Stability Treaty.

Which is dead in the water now. Another Treaty change may also supplant it.. The purpose of the yes vote, in my mind, was to get us to the wire fence in between rotations of the spotlight. Now the government need to use serious wirecutters. Could we pretend for the moment that the only sharpshooters are us shooting ourselves in the foot?

There needs also to be reframing of the debate around fiscal and political union. It is usually cast along the lines of a choice between bankruptcy or loss of power. However, there is another view. The kind of dept pooling etc envisaged is a SHARED resource . We would have to give power away but we would receive things also. MEPS of all ideologies bar the fascists, are largely formed by the " community method". Which actually means something. Of course the compromises needed would take us in to a major paradigm shift. Everything including CT would be in there.
I notice Eoghan Murphy has a piece in the Journal saying this. No doubt Enda will have to contradict him. It is going to be hard to change the discourse and we will be in to a real dichotomy between centre right and left as to who gives what to who. But by then the two major powers in the EU will BE centre left. And one half of ours.....