Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 16 to 29 of 29

Thread: Abstaining from voting

  1. #16
    Join Date
    Apr 2010
    Posts
    4,843

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Thanks to M Taft:

    UNDERSTANDABLY, IN THIS referendum we are focused on the impact of the Fiscal Treaty on Ireland. But this is a Treaty for the eurozone and the entire EU (with the exceptions of the UK and the Czech Republic, which are pursuing their own home-grown austerity policies).

    The Government has made much about how the Fiscal Treaty will introduce ‘stability’ and ‘confidence’ in the Irish and European economies. So what might we expect from this unique experiment in simultaneous austerity and how might it impact on an open economy like Ireland. Will the Fiscal Treaty actually result in ‘stability’ and ‘confidence’?

    Not according to the Institute for Macro-economic and Economic Research (IMK) based in Germany. They teamed up with other research institutes in Austria and France to assess the impact of the Fiscal Compact on Eurozone and EU growth. And the numbers are not good.

    IMK 1

    The IMF is already projecting that Euro area and EU growth rates will be well below world growth rates. In a post-fiscal treaty scenario, the IMK projects that European growth rates will be cut further – with Euro area growth rates falling to an insipid ½ percent average annual growth rate.

    The IMK also looks at specific countries.

    IMK 2

    It might surprise some that Germany – the ‘engine of the Eurozone economy’ – is already projected to be a low-growth economy under the IMF projections. Even by 2016, the IMF expects the German economy to grow by a mere 1.3 percent. However, given that Germany doesn’t have a significant structural deficit issue, the impact of the fiscal treaty will lower growth only marginally.

    However, when it comes to France – which does have a significant structural deficit problem – we see that a low-growth economy will find its growth rate cut in half by the Fiscal Treaty. As for Italy which, like Germany, doesn’t have a significant structural deficit issue, average growth rates fall into negative territory – from an IMF projection which shows them already flat-lining.

    The IMK projections for Ireland don’t really work well because they assume all countries the Fiscal Compact would be implemented will meet the structural deficit target by 2016, whereas Ireland may get more leeway coming out of a programme. However, if we assume that Ireland must meet the structural deficit target what might we expect?

    IMK 3

    I have assumed that a further €5.4 billion fiscal adjustment would be necessary to close the structural deficit gap by 2017 (€5.4 billion being the gap in 2015). This adjustment is to start in 2015. What we find is that GDP growth stagnates at 2014 levels – with implications for unemployment (which the IMF already estimates at over 10 percent in 2017 with a growth rate in excess of 3 percent), incomes and living standards.

    And if the Irish growth rates still look better than other countries in the post-fiscal treaty scenario, we always have to remember that GDP is flattered by a multi-national sector which books profits here and then immediately takes them out of the country in what is essentially an accounting exercise.

    So all of this is supposed to instil ‘confidence’ and ‘stability’? Cutting growth rates even further in Europe which is already looking forward to a low-growth medium-term scenario – far below world growth rates? How does this promote the confidence necessary to increase investment – when domestic demand is being cut in a number of countries simultaneously? How does this stabilise public finances when economies are going to find it even more difficult to generate the revenues necessary to repay debt? And what happens to all this math if Spain falls into bail-out?

    For the Government this is a special problem. Their recovery strategy is based on an expanding export base. However, if European countries are simultaneously driving down their demand, our markets for exports will be contracting. How does reduced demand in Europe impact on our real export growth.

    This is not a drive to promote ‘confidence’ and ‘stability’ – this is a dangerous experiment that will produce even greater uncertainty.

    This is a recipe for extending and deepening stagnation.

    But, hey, at least we’ll be doing it together. As they say, misery loves company.


    Finally btw, Iceland is still borrowing from the markets even they had defaulted already. It's highly likely that in the event of NO vote, Ireland would be able to borrow it from the markets just like Iceland did.

  2. #17
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Baile Átha Cliath
    Posts
    5,113

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Quote Originally Posted by Andrew49 View Post
    Much of the 'Yes' vote is very soft in my opinion. The No vote is hard. If the Yessir, Yessir side can be fooled into thinking it is far ahead - that the polls are accurate .... some mightn't bother to turn out ...... wishful thinking maybe ....

    Abstaining is one option but I wouldn't recommend it. Sure a coalition of sorts could be assembled from the NO side - Ganley aside?
    I wouldnt abstain fluffy, your vote is important. Sometimes you have to vote for the least bad option, which is imo a no vote.

  3. #18
    Join Date
    May 2010
    Location
    The West
    Posts
    2,836

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    You can abstain in a vote at a meeting of 10 people and make a point but in an electorate of several million, nobody notices or cares.

  4. #19
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    hiding inside Brendan Gleesons underwear drawer...
    Posts
    13,555

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Well been thinking about it over the last few days. As Saoirse said abstaining from voting will just play right into the hands of the yes crowd. I might as well be one of them "Dont Know" in the opinion polls if I was to do such an action. Ireland would have access to other sources of funding, looking at it this way. They would not let the Euro go, imagine the hassle they would have if it did, it works against them so we would be bailed out if we voted no.
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

  5. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2010
    Location
    Rockall
    Posts
    78,980

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    There was a debate at the Anarchists Book Fair at the weekend, in Dublin between SP and WSM reps, on whether or not a vote was a waste of time.

    http://glykosymoritis.blogspot.com/2...e-whether.html

    I'd be interested to know if anyone won the debate.

    Personally, I believe that the courts and law are something that is constantly struggled over. The vote and the Constitution, both of which give and protect some basic rights, were partly won on the streets, but also through political action so why throw away what we already have, by not going down to the ballot box? It would just make things easier for Merkel and Co.

  6. #21
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Dublin North-West - the leading constituency!
    Posts
    5,881

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Fluffy, ask yourself these questions

    Which way does Michael Noonan want me to vote?
    Which way does Enda Kenny want me to vote?
    Which way does Eamonn Gilmore want me to vote?
    Which way would Richie Boucher want me to vote?
    Which way would Tom Parlon want me to vote?
    Which way does the Irish Banking Federation hope the vote goes?
    Which way does the CIF want this vote to go?

    .......... and so on.

    And then vote as your conscience dictates!

  7. #22
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    hiding inside Brendan Gleesons underwear drawer...
    Posts
    13,555

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Quote Originally Posted by Slim Buddha View Post
    Fluffy, ask yourself these questions

    Which way does Michael Noonan want me to vote?
    Which way does Enda Kenny want me to vote?
    Which way does Eamonn Gilmore want me to vote?
    Which way would Richie Boucher want me to vote?
    Which way would Tom Parlon want me to vote?
    Which way does the Irish Banking Federation hope the vote goes?
    Which way does the CIF want this vote to go?

    .......... and so on.

    And then vote as your conscience dictates!
    Im going to vote no, here is an e mail I sent to a mate of mine earlier !


    I don’t quite understand that to be honest. I did feel myself I was being forced to make a cack handed decision and vote for an option that are as bad as one and other. Being a risk taker Im going to say no, I will not be bullied and harangued by Fine Gael and Labour who make Fine Gael now look like Stalinists they are gone that right wing. There is still a chance that our access to funds could be vetoed by another country (it only takes one) if we voted yes and with this in mind Im voting no. If we vote no we will still get access to funds albeit at a higher interest rate most probably from the IMF and with the interest rates being through the roof we will pass a tough budget but not as tough if we were to sign up to the treaty and get denied access to funds. This is taken from a union officials interpretation of things and seems to ring quite true

    Under the terms of Article 5 of the Treaty countries that do not implement austerity
    with the vigor deemed necessary are placed in an “Excessive Deficits Procedure”
    which effectively places them in administration with budgets being written by
    bureaucrats in the Commission and Council rather than elected governments.

    So looks like Im voting no!
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

  8. #23
    Join Date
    Nov 2011
    Location
    Baile Átha Cliath
    Posts
    5,113

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    I'm glad you are voting fluffy. There should always be a high turn out, the fact that there isn't demonstrates just how distant and powerless people feel in relation to the govt, especially poorer people.

  9. #24
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    hiding inside Brendan Gleesons underwear drawer...
    Posts
    13,555

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Quote Originally Posted by Saoirse go Deo View Post
    I'm glad you are voting fluffy. There should always be a high turn out, the fact that there isn't demonstrates just how distant and powerless people feel in relation to the govt, especially poorer people.
    Well as people also said if I didnt vote then I have no real say in how the country is going to be governed !
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

  10. #25
    Join Date
    Mar 2011
    Location
    Ireland
    Posts
    3,845

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Quote Originally Posted by fluffybiscuits View Post
    Well as people also said if I didnt vote then I have no real say in how the country is going to be governed !
    At the same time, I think it would be wrong for you to impose austerity on the rest of us.

  11. #26
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    hiding inside Brendan Gleesons underwear drawer...
    Posts
    13,555

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Quote Originally Posted by Holly View Post
    At the same time, I think it would be wrong for you to impose austerity on the rest of us.

    damned if I do and damned if I dont...wibble...
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

  12. #27
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Derry
    Posts
    2,074

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Quote Originally Posted by Holly View Post
    At the same time, I think it would be wrong for you to impose austerity on the rest of us.


    Yes, because fluffy's single vote will obviously be the casting vote that decides the issue for the entire nation.

    I often think a lot of Irish people deep down don't actually "get" this whole democracy business.

  13. #28
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Dublin North-West - the leading constituency!
    Posts
    5,881

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Quote Originally Posted by fluffybiscuits View Post
    damned if I do and damned if I dont...wibble...
    Not really. THis is Ireland. If you have not got a bloody good reason to vote in accordance with the governments wishes, vote against it. Richard Bruton confirmed that they will come back with the question in the autumn anyway, so a "NO" vote is merely sending a message. But it is important that these phuqwits get this message.

  14. #29
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    hiding inside Brendan Gleesons underwear drawer...
    Posts
    13,555

    Default Re: Abstaining from voting

    Well I did vote anyways and Im glad I did, I got to have my say (It was a no vote may I add)...
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Share us
Follow Us