Opinion Polls - Fiscal Stability Treaty Referendum May 2012

[C. Flower]

http://stephenspillane.com/blog/inde...medium=twitter


The poll by Behaviour and Attitudes survey of 946 over seven days ending on Tuesday.

The topline figures on the Treaty Referendum are as follows:

Yes: 42%
No: 27%
Undecided: 31%
When undecideds are excluded the the figures look more familiar:

Yes: 61%
No: 39%
So no major news there. The interest is when people were asked to they understand the treaty, the responses were as follows:

Understood Very Well: 6%
Understand Quite Well: 12%
Understand to some extent: 27%
Do not understand it particularly well: 23%
Do not understand it all: 32%
The big task on the Yes sides now will be to get the 55% of people who don’t understand to understand! If the Yes manages that will win the referendum on May 31st!

Claire McGing on twitter says -

50% of men are on yes & 33% women, while 22% of men & 39% of women don't know.

[DCon]

It would appear that FG HQ have not sent the party members instructions to debase our poll yet

[tomasocarthaigh]

Claire McGing on twitter says -

50% of men are on yes & 33% women, while 22% of men & 39% of women don't know.

The women who dont know... refuse to ask for directions!!!

;-p

Sorry... couldnt resist!!! rotfl!!!

[Dr. FIVE]

Latest SBP/Red C > Yes: 50% (-3), No: 31% (nc), Don't know: 19% (+3)

[Griska]

Latest SBP/Red C > Yes: 50% (-3), No: 31% (nc), Don't know: 19% (+3)

It does raise the question about our relationship with Europe.
I would imagine such a referendum would be laughed at in the majority of Euro countries.
Surely the irony is that we are most un-European, if the latest polls are correct.

[MPB]

Latest SBP/Red C > Yes: 50% (-3), No: 31% (nc), Don't know: 19% (+3)

Obviously a lot of soft Yes votes in that original 50%, while the No vote is rock hard.

The arrival of Ganley into the debate is, in my opinion the reason for the change.

His insistence on including the Bank reparations in the debate will definitely win Votes to the No side.

Also his questioning of the ability of the ESM to manage to fund the likes of Spain, as well as the legality of the ESM will prevent the Yes side from constantly referring to the ESM as the whole basis for voting Yes.

[Griska]

Obviously a lot of soft Yes votes in that original 50%, while the No vote is rock hard.

The arrival of Ganley into the debate is, in my opinion the reason for the change.

His insistence on including the Bank reparations in the debate will definitely win Votes to the No side.

Also his questioning of the ability of the ESM to manage to fund the likes of Spain, as well as the legality of the ESM will prevent the Yes side from constantly referring to the ESM as the whole basis for voting Yes.

Ganley is a busted flush.
His ability to influence the outcome is overstated.

[C. Flower]

Ganley is a busted flush.
His ability to influence the outcome is overstated.

Personally he may not be doing much, but having a few posters about the place won't harm the "No" sentiment.

[Dr. FIVE]

A lot of support he would get would be Thatcherite types who would already be voting no in hope of killing the CPA.
Still might pick up a few though. He picked up a couple of thousand votes in euros and west will probably be returning the strongest no.

[Griska]

A lot of support he would get would be Thatcherite types who would already be voting no in hope of killing the CPA.
Still might pick up a few though. He picked up a couple of thousand votes in euros and west will probably be returning the strongest no.

Aye, his people will already be counted on the no side.
He'll have little influence on the result.

[unspecific]

Oh, and the eurozone is collapsing.

[Richardbouvet]

Face it folks. Ganley may be a sleaze-ball, but in a referendum, the side which is consistently trailing in the polls needs all the allies it can get.

[Griska]

Face it folks. Ganley may be a sleaze-ball, but in a referendum, the side which is consistently trailing in the polls needs all the allies it can get.

Stop it.
You're making me feel dirty

[rebellin]

Oh, and the eurozone is collapsing.

This is the most important factor. Voters can't vote for the government's stability spin, when everyday JP Morgan is down the tubes, then Greece. Spain etc.-- this is what is unfolding in the last days of the referendum campaign

http://laroucheirishbrigade.wordpres...ional-suicide/

[Dr. FIVE]

poll on 4fm shows

6% yes
94% no