The Bo Xilai Affair

[Count Bobulescu]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/...meV_story.html

BEIJING — As they prepare for a once-in-a-generation turnover of power, China’s leaders now appear to be seeking a quick and quiet resolution in the case of Bo Xilai, the top official ousted from his Communist Party posts, Western diplomats and Chinese analysts say.

Rather than risk a sensational trial, the Chinese authorities appear most likely to simply expel him from the party, a step that could be taken swiftly and out of public view, the diplomats and analysts said. The approach would be intended to minimize public scrutiny of a Chinese system of graft and greed that Bo has come to symbolize.

[Yojimbo]

A nice succinct summary here of what is 'known' and what seems likely about the Bo Xilai affair so far:

http://www.nybooks.com/blogs/nyrblog...red-questions/

Some interesting observations including the question of why is the US government not telling us what it knows? It had plenty of time to interview Wang Lijung when he took refuge in the consulate- he must have told them quite a story.

[Yojimbo]

Nothing much new here, but a fair summary of whats likely to happen in the trail of Gu Kailai (it seems like the butler will be getting a bullet, she might just avoid one).

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...e-century.html

[Yojimbo]

woo, blink and you'd miss it - the trial is already over! A lesson for our courts, only 8 hours long!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...l-neil-heywood

[Yojimbo]

Account here of the trial by a Chinese law professor who attended it:

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/chi...lai-trial.html

It is significant I think that the court was happy to accept her claims that Heywood had been threatening their son (from what I've read, I would think that highly unlikely, he would have known that was far too dangerous). It looks to me like they are setting it up to show 'mercy', find her guilty, but quietly lock her away for a few years rather than give the usual bullet. I wonder though if this is because some sort of deal has been done, or because they just want to cool everything down a bit.

I'd think the latter, because for a sensational trial, it seems to have been remarkably dull.

The whole courtroom was quite quiet. During the long stage of introducing evidence, some of the audience slept and was audibly snoring.

[C. Flower]

Account here of the trial by a Chinese law professor who attended it:

http://lawprofessors.typepad.com/chi...lai-trial.html

It is significant I think that the court was happy to accept her claims that Heywood had been threatening their son (from what I've read, I would think that highly unlikely, he would have known that was far too dangerous). It looks to me like they are setting it up to show 'mercy', find her guilty, but quietly lock her away for a few years rather than give the usual bullet. I wonder though if this is because some sort of deal has been done, or because they just want to cool everything down a bit.

I'd think the latter, because for a sensational trial, it seems to have been remarkably dull.

I'm still quite unsure what her motive was supposed to be.

Fear of blackmail ?

[Yojimbo]

I'm still quite unsure what her motive was supposed to be.

Fear of blackmail ?

The 'official' motive is that he threatened to do something to their son and that she acted out of panic, but that isn't really credible I think. There are plenty of indications that she is a pretty paranoid and unstable person.

The likeliest explanation is that she and her husband were aware that they were under investigation by political enemies in Beijing and saw Heywood as a potentially dangerous loose end. He probably knew where all their corrupt gains were hidden outside China, and she believed (possibly with some justification) that he could not be trusted to keep quiet, unlike their other courtiers. I think Heywood was in way over his head, he had no idea how ruthless and dangerous she was, and he probably overplayed his cards, thinking he was just engaging in a bit of negotiation over his cut of the spoils.

[TotalMayhem]

Bo Xilai's wife sentenced to death... with a two-year reprieve.

[musashi]

Well Hey, that's nice, Bo's wife get's off with a non custodial sentence for murdering a foreign devil.

the message this sends is unmistakable.

[musashi]

Well Hey, that's nice, Bo's wife get's off with a non custodial sentence for murdering a foreign devil.

the message this sends is unmistakable.

The sentence means Gu Kailai is likely to face life in jail for murdering British businessman Neil Heywood last year, provided she does not commit offences in the next two years.

I stand corrected.

[Yojimbo]

The FT states (without giving a source, unusually), that the woman up on trial is not actually Gu Kailai, but a body double. Its not unknown in China for the rich to pay someone to take the fall for them, but it seems extraordinary that this could happen in such a high profile trial.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23650...#axzz245aMuYcr

The writer Ma Jian here argues (not terribly convincingly in my opinion), that the trial is a sign of a deeply fractured leadership.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...ury-by-ma-jian

[Count Bobulescu]

The FT states (without giving a source, unusually), that the woman up on trial is not actually Gu Kailai, but a body double. Its not unknown in China for the rich to pay someone to take the fall for them, but it seems extraordinary that this could happen in such a high profile trial.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/23650...#axzz245aMuYcr

The writer Ma Jian here argues (not terribly convincingly in my opinion), that the trial is a sign of a deeply fractured leadership.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/com...ury-by-ma-jian

FWIW, I thought the photo of the person on trial that I saw had just a passing resemblance to an earlier photo of a younger lighter Gu Kailai. That may be feuling the speculation.

[Yojimbo]

This Slate article hired a specialist and concluded it was 'probably' Gu Kailai

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...n_prison_.html

[Count Bobulescu]

This Slate article hired a specialist and concluded it was 'probably' Gu Kailai

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...n_prison_.html

I'll take that as confirmation that I am not yet crazy.

[Count Bobulescu]

From a WSJ news alert.

Wang Lijun -- the former police chief of the Chinese city of Chongqing who triggered the scandal surrounding his former boss, Bo Xilai -- has been charged with defection, power abuse, bribe-taking and “bending the law for selfish ends,” China's state-run Xinhua news agency said.

Prosecutors in the western city of Chengdu filed charges against Mr. Wang with the city’s Intermediate People’s Court, which had agreed to accept the case and was choosing a date for a trial, Xinhua said.

Mr. Wang sparked a political crisis when he sought refuge in the U.S. consulate in Chengdu in February and told American diplomats he had evidence that Mr. Bo was involved in the murder of a British businessman, Neil Heywood.