The Fiscal Compact: doubts creeping in across Europe-Spain defies Brussels

[morticia]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0316/euro-business.html

Spain's national debt soaring. Admittedly it's only at just over 60% of official GDP figures, but given what I'm hearing from people with pals in Spain about the govt not paying its bills, I'm beginning to worry about....creative accounting. Their bubble was similar in size to our own.

[ang]

Update on Referendum:-

‏ @DdeBreadun

Taoiseach Kenny has told colleagues he wants Euro-referendum by end May - that doesn't leave much time to put enabling legislation through

[PaddyJoe]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0316/euro-business.html

Spain's national debt soaring. Admittedly it's only at just over 60% of official GDP figures, but given what I'm hearing from people with pals in Spain about the govt not paying its bills, I'm beginning to worry about....creative accounting. Their bubble was similar in size to our own.

The central government is holding off on its annual budget until after the regional elections in Andalucia on March 25th. The PP expect to win for the first time since the transition to democracy in 1979.
The surprises will wait until that's safely out of the way

[morticia]

The central government is holding off on its annual budget until after the regional elections in Andalucia on March 25th. The PP expect to win for the first time since the transition to democracy in 1979.
The surprises will wait until that's safely out of the way

well, that makes sense... thanks. It doesn't matter how cynical I get, it never seems to be cynical enough.

[Griska]

http://www.rte.ie/news/2012/0316/euro-business.html

Spain's national debt soaring. Admittedly it's only at just over 60% of official GDP figures, but given what I'm hearing from people with pals in Spain about the govt not paying its bills, I'm beginning to worry about....creative accounting. Their bubble was similar in size to our own.

But wasn't their bubble fuelled by holiday homers too?
Spain has been notoriously corrupt in a way that possibly puts us in the ha'penny place.

[PaddyJoe]

But wasn't their bubble fuelled by holiday homers too?
Spain has been notoriously corrupt in a way that possibly puts us in the ha'penny place.

Way worse than Ireland when it comes to local planning corruption. Jesus Gil, who was Mayor of Marbella and president of Atlhletico Madrid, made people like Ray Burke and Liam Lawlor look like choirboys.

[Griska]

Way worse than Ireland when it comes to local planning corruption. Jesus Gil, who was Mayor of Marbella and president of Atlhletico Madrid, made people like Ray Burke and Liam Lawlor look like choirboys.

Yes.
A couple of years ago, when I was there, there was the "Goldfinger trial".
So called, because a certain Sean Connery got in on the act while selling a property

[morticia]

But wasn't their bubble fuelled by holiday homers too?
Spain has been notoriously corrupt in a way that possibly puts us in the ha'penny place.

Having lived abroad, I wouldn't be too surprised if most of Europe puts us in the ha'penny place.

We stand alone as the only place that has made a comprehensive attempt to clean up our banks. That may leave a lot to be desired, but at least it's an attempt.

Certainly, the uprightness of the UK planning process didn't impress me while living there. There were buildings started without planning permission and family homes built on toxic sites that shouldn't have been touched in a thousand years. What totally shocked me was the lack of local Nimbys with placards; the locals all knew about the toxic site and kept their heads down.

[ang]

Oh Oh it may well turn out that Chancellor Merkels two-thirds Bundestag majority (if achieved as is expected for ESM) may not be good enough and possibly constitutional change will be needed in Germany for the fiscal compact & ESM :-

The need for such a referendum depends on whether you believe the fiscal treaty and the related permanent bailout fund (ESM) change the DNA of the EU to such an extent that a new constitutional rulebook is required between the bloc and its largest member state.

Two leading law professors from Heidelberg University believe this is the case, arguing in a widely-read paper that the ESM is a permanent transfer mechanism that “alters the identity” of the Basic Law. What for some is a statement of fact is, for others, a far-fetched and fanciful notion

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/...313818837.html

[morticia]

The plot thickens.....

[TotalMayhem]

Nah, it doesn't.

The Germans had more than twenty years to abolish the Basic Law and give themselves a proper constitution instead and yet they haven't done it.

I read somewhere that the Americans and Brits have made this a condition for their consent to the German reunification (the French got the Euro, the Russians cash). The reason? Article 139 still gives the victors a great deal of control over Germany:

The legal provisions enacted for the “Liberation of the German People from National Socialism and Militarism” shall not be affected by the provisions of this Basic Law.

[morticia]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...contagion.html

Well, Italy's favourite technocrat appears a little concerned that the Spanish are about to go under and drag Italy down with them.

[DCon]

Little Luxembourg is stressed about their deficit breaking the magic 3%..

Some 1.5 billion euros are estimated to be missing in the 2013 budget, bringing the deficit up to 3.5% of the GDP, above the 3% deficit rate proposed by the EU's stability pact.

The situation is hardly looking more promising for future years with deficits over 3% projected for 2014 (3.1%) and 2015 (3.3%).

http://www.wort.lu/wort/web/en/busin...0192/index.php

[PaddyJoe]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...contagion.html

Well, Italy's favourite technocrat appears a little concerned that the Spanish are about to go under and drag Italy down with them.

Signore Monti misspoke it appears

The Italian government has moved to soften statements made on Saturday by Prime Minister Mario Monti who said Spain is “giving Europe every right to be worried.” The retraction came after Madrid told Rome that “the timing was not right” for Monti to issue such opinions.

Is Italy not Spain now?
http://elpais.com/elpais/2012/03/25/...90_961276.html

[morticia]

Little Luxembourg is stressed about their deficit breaking the magic 3%..

Aww, diddums, bless. Heart bleeds.

Hmm, perhaps that constitutional court in Karlsruhe could do us all a favour....or M. Hollande, peut-etre?? Everyone seems to be getting frostbitten extremities about this one, all of a sudden. Wonder why????