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Thread: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

  1. #16
    Kev Bar Guest

    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Well if this is failure it is of a pretty passionate and inspring variety


    http://m.guardian.co.uk/commentisfre...e&type=article

  2. #17
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Regime-change has happened on the back of the Arab Spring across North Africa, where we await further developments i.e. we have to wait in judgement for its effects.
    Syria, still undergoing its version of an anti-government Arab Spring, is arguably a potentially very dangerous part of this Arab revolt against its oppressors in the medium-term, vis-a-vis Iran. Despite being mainly Sunni Muslim, Syria is a conduit for Shiite Iranian support of anti-Israeli activity in Lebanon, leading to American/Israeli support for regime change there- in order to weaken the position of Iran.
    While talk of further war in the Middle East goes on, there is an interesting (so far) non-military geo-political situation going on regarding Turkey, whereby it may hope to cash in on the back of the Arab Spring, particularly with events in Syria. Historically, it has always sought to be part of Europe, and regards itself as such- despite its many years of trying to become a member of the EU being thwarted (human rights violations, Muslim country with 75 mil pop., Kurdish question,?). Egypt has traditionally been the bastion of the Sunni’s, but Turkey can see an opening, with its far more secularized version of democracy, as an enticing Sunni model of modern life.
    Turkey seems to be eyeing Syria to increase its sphere of influence there, which many in the West would like to see, such that it could indirectly reduce the influence of Iran. Syria could therefore be part of a cultural tug of war- using ‘soft’ power- between Turkey and Iran, where its cultural power could be turned into economic power. The power vacuum of a post-Assad Syria means Turkey has a lot to gain from regime change there. Turkey is no longer the “Sick Man of Europe”, and has got impatient with the EU’s obfuscations with entry. It doesn’t seem like the Turkish people themselves want to flex their national muscles in a south-eastern direction, but its leaders, in consultation with the real power- the army- may have other ideas. A resurgent (Arab) Egypt will vie for regional influence in a post-Assad Syria, as will (Persian) Iran, so the non-Arab Turks will seek to use their brand of Sunni cultural life as a cultural beacon to the Arab Sunni world before they get a chance.
    Hopefully, the brutal dictatorship of Assad, with its history of torture- and current oppression through massacres- will fall, but the vacuum it leaves could cause a slowly gathering momentum, not curtailed by an American occupation to direct its interests forcefully.
    Politics shapes history, and history shapes politics.

  3. #18
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Quote Originally Posted by morticia View Post
    Personally, I think they should have the right to elect whoever they like, and if that means the Muslim Brotherhood, I'm afraid, vox populi, vox Dei, etc. America and the rest of us will have to live with the fact that not everyone wants our way of life (and frankly, looking at our banks and sovereigns, the Holy Prophet of Islam perhaps should have been listened to with respect to usury. Along with the medieval Christian church... when did that rule get quietly shelved?).

    The great thing about democracy is that then, they'll have only themselves to blame if the Islamists don't manage to create heaven on earth for them all. No need to blame the West at all.
    When kings needed money more than subservience and piety from their subjects.
    And they couldn't tap Jewish money lenders any more as they exiled most of them after robbing them of their funds.

  4. #19

    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    i think this is the end of the arab because of the revolutions

  5. #20
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Quote Originally Posted by Jail Nation View Post
    i think this is the end of the arab because of the revolutions
    If you were to explain to someone like me who only understands the basic facts of the Arab Spring. Why would you say it is the end of the Arab?
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

  6. #21
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Quote Originally Posted by fluffybiscuits View Post
    If you were to explain to someone like me who only understands the basic facts of the Arab Spring. Why would you say it is the end of the Arab?
    He already said, "because of the revolutions". Golly!

  7. #22
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Quote Originally Posted by Holly View Post
    He already said, "because of the revolutions". Golly!
    But what factors contributed to it!
    History is the only true teacher, the revolution the best school for the proletariat - Rosa Luxembourg

  8. #23
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    The Muslim Brotherhood have very definitely won the Egyptian elections, followed by the Salafis.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16665748

    This was predicted from last spring, when it was clear that the Brotherhood, although not allowed to stand for election under Mubarak, had by far the most effective organisation.
    Dozens of new parties have been formed this year, including a number on the left. There was much frustration that they didn't have the MB's organisational capacities. Some people boycotted the elections as they felt that what was on offer still left the Military as the real holders of power. Some resorted to a street battle with the police and army.

    Politics is a long game. They will need to build their organisations if they are to get anywhere.

  9. #24
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Watch out Copts!

  10. #25
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    memory is a strange bedfellow and does deceive to flatter when required The Arab Spring for Algeria was in the early part of the fifties only their opponents were the French . Those to whom Algeria really is the homeland, the kabili , stood aside to let the Arab invasion from the East take root Even to this day the kabili regard the Arab as a usurper . The kabili do not benefit from sales of Algerian Oil, but France, the old enemy, now enjoys 75% of its production. Proof if proof were needed that Arab spings will come and go but in the end they aren't worth the waste of sentiment because they will revert to the lowest common sentiment the rush for oil by the West who impute into each uprising a slant which befits their politics Currently with the rise in Arab Fundamentalism and its support at the polls Cameron and Juppe must be wetting their pants at what they have unleashed and all because they mistook the enemy in the search for glory and cheap oil

  11. #26
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Quote Originally Posted by finnmccool View Post
    memory is a strange bedfellow and does deceive to flatter when required The Arab Spring for Algeria was in the early part of the fifties only their opponents were the French . Those to whom Algeria really is the homeland, the kabili , stood aside to let the Arab invasion from the East take root Even to this day the kabili regard the Arab as a usurper . The kabili do not benefit from sales of Algerian Oil, but France, the old enemy, now enjoys 75% of its production. Proof if proof were needed that Arab spings will come and go but in the end they aren't worth the waste of sentiment because they will revert to the lowest common sentiment the rush for oil by the West who impute into each uprising a slant which befits their politics Currently with the rise in Arab Fundamentalism and its support at the polls Cameron and Juppe must be wetting their pants at what they have unleashed and all because they mistook the enemy in the search for glory and cheap oil
    You are saying on the one hand, that resistance is not worth trying (even though direct rule by western powers has been ended) and on the other, that the West must be annoyed that Islamic parties have done well?

    We had the same succession in Ireland, where the end of British rule in the Republic was followed by a series of very conservative, religious governments.

    Ireland when it got its independence was a very poor and undeveloped country. It did the best it could do at the time.

  12. #27
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    [QUOTE=C. Flower;221095]You are saying on the one hand, that resistance is not worth trying (even though direct rule by western powers has been ended) and on the other, that the West must be annoyed that Islamic parties have done well?

    The two hands you refer to are perhaps not attached to the same body in your analogy since the difference strikes me as is the difference between a banana and a pomegranate The resignation of the Kabili to the occupation by the Arab thrust from Saudi in the 1950's was total. Subversion to the will of the invader in this case the arabs from the East left no room for self expression and to this day the control exercised by the Algerian army suppresses all desire to revolt . The key to revolution as seen in the last year has been subliminal convergence between Arab values and Western technology to subvert outdated and seemingly decadent governments Governments so far outside Koranic teaching they stank of American and Western corruption. When the ground is cleared of this corruption the proper representation of Arab sentiment lies not in our perception towards a democracy but more a re-statement of social intercourse in a Muslim world to which we are remotely intolerant but realise its perhaps better than the system as stated before


    We had the same succession in Ireland, where the end of British rule in the Republic was followed by a series of very conservative, religious governments.

    Ireland never had access to the possibility of natural resources unlimited and much in demand The comparision is lost as seen from my angle and with respect to Arab Springs I suspect Western authorities have lost the control to a demos whose intrinsic goalis not private wealth creation but they will try to lasso their pidgeons nevertheless.


    Ireland when it got its independence was a very poor and undeveloped country.

    If you discount what the Brits still held under the matress

    It did the best it could do at the time.

    Once again I repeat that memory is a lonely comrade for those whose memory is incomplete. What people do is always the best they can and we still expect it off them today nothing more nothing less. Don't expect Herculean powers and redressment unless you believe in Disneyland or Dreamworks alas.
    Peter J Finn

  13. #28
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Quote Originally Posted by C. Flower View Post
    The Muslim Brotherhood have very definitely won the Egyptian elections, followed by the Salafis.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-16665748

    This was predicted from last spring, when it was clear that the Brotherhood, although not allowed to stand for election under Mubarak, had by far the most effective organisation.
    Dozens of new parties have been formed this year, including a number on the left. There was much frustration that they didn't have the MB's organisational capacities. Some people boycotted the elections as they felt that what was on offer still left the Military as the real holders of power. Some resorted to a street battle with the police and army.

    Politics is a long game. They will need to build their organisations if they are to get anywhere.
    If they're allowed to. Religious fundamentalists, of any hue, are not renowned for their tolerance of opposition.

  14. #29
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cruimh View Post
    Dare I specalate that people that cannot read should not be allowed vote
    and what about people below a certain IQ. and people who cant spell (that's me out) and all those people who have criminal records, and women in PMT, and just women in general damit, and gays and Taigs and Brits and Huns and Blacks and Hispanic, dont get me started on those yellow folk, how many of them!! UNMARRIED BLEEDEN MOTHERS!!! and their kids, and GOD preserve us from those reds and pinks and blues and all you so and so's that are not ME!!!

    (its a joke Cruimh, ok not a very good one, but not aimed at you)

  15. #30
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    Default Re: Has the Arab Spring Failed?

    Quote Originally Posted by Cruimh View Post
    It said on news that 50% of Egyptians cannot read.
    So they all going to vote for who the local holy man tells them to vote for more than likely


    I think Tunisa and Libya (AFAIK) the populace are better educated so hopefully they will vote less for the reglious parties.

    I wonder what the literay level in Ireland was in 1920s

    Dare I specalate that people that cannot read should not be allowed vote
    Dare I suggest that you should have speculated rather than specalating.
    I wonder if the literacy level in Ireland in this decade differs much from the literay level in the 1920s.
    Take yourself off the register, Cruimh.
    No vote for you.
    "This isn't working,
    My middle-brow f**ker"

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