Post War Libya - Where is it Going ?

[Sam Lord]

Most Libyan people didn't fight at all, as NATO moved in before a mass movement developed.

I'm not sure what you are trying to say...but there is no doubt that the vast majority of the Libyan people did not support the tyrant and supported his overthrow even if they may not have all carried weapons. The capital, for example, where the propagandists would have us believe the citizens were armed to the teeth and ready to shed their last drop of blood for the dictator, was seized from Gaddafi's forces overnight .. by the people living in the city.

Jibril walked into power unelected, a few months out of the Gaddafi government, and was immediately recognised by all the NATO powers. Nobody voted. He has been central in shaping the electoral process and now will be central in shaping the constitution.

Well there has been a vote now and his party won a lot of seats so you can say he has a right to play a role in shaping the constitution. How central that will be has yet to be seen.

Some people - the most articulate, advantaged people in Libya, will gain from the change of regime. The mass will not. Libya will be looted.

This also remains to be seen. But at least the mass are able to organise themselves politically now in their own interests as they see fit and will not be thrown into jail and tortured or executed for doing so.

There was similar optimism from many people after the fall of the USSR - I am not saying that the Gaddafi regime was equivalent, but I am saying that the door is open for a carve up of Libya's resources and many people will be much worse off.

Libyas resources were already carved up between the Gaddifi family, their henchmen and foreign monopolists. It couldn't possibly be much worse.

Jibril worked in Cairo under the military regime, and under Gaddafi when renditions were taking place at the behest of his US and UK friends. I am quite sure he will have no problem in doing all he can to assist US and UK "programmes." His problem with Gaddafi was that he wasn't "westernising" fast enough.

A snowball has a greater chance in hell that there now exists of someone being rendered to Libya by the CIA. Both you and I know that so why pretend otherwise.

The Libyan uprising was hijacked. There has been a coup. If you think there was a revolution, which social class took over, from which social class?

If a revolution necessitated the transfer of power from one class to another we would be redefining a great deal of world history. What social class took over in the American revolution?

As for the contention that what took place in Libya was a "coup" .. it is a proposition breathtaking in it's absurdity. In Libya a tyrant who had been in power for decades was overthrown in a popular uprising. That's the fact of the matter.

NATO was in like a rat up a drainpipe. It didn't need to be asked by anyone twice.

That is not the historical record ... but then the historical record never matters to some when it contradicts their worldview. The fact is that many NATO countries did not support the intervention and it caused a significant rift in the organisation.

Furthermore, there was clearly no plan for an intervention and everything was done on the wing. The US stopped providing any combat support in a short space of time ... leaving the running to the Brits and French who then ran out of bombs. Masterplan all in all.

If the Gaddafi regime was as ineffectual and as hated as you suggest, it would not have lasted long in a serious uprising. The Libyan army was relatively small and poorly equipped. Gaddafi kept it that way deliberately, in case of a coup attempt.

Gaddafi had been providing a foreign mercenary spine to the Libyan army for decades. Many of those who provided this and survived the revolution are now causing problems in Mali. I never saw any evidence that the Libyan army was ill equipped. Particularly not with regard to dealing with civilian insurgents.

Apart from two small places (Sirte and Bani Walid) the only people fighting for Gaddafi were the army.

Over 30,000 people died in the Libyan conflict, many more than have died in Syria, where a mass movement has steadily developed.

Your figure of 30,000 is well inflated. More sober assessments would put it at half that. This has already been exceeded in Syria.

The "mass movement" carrying the day in Syria is a rag tag bunch of militias that foreign correspondents conveniently label the Free Syria Army. Not very different to the militias who defeated Gaddafi. I'm not sure what the mass movement you are keen on is doing. Who is leading it?

In Syria, like Libya, every effort is being made by the US to hijack the movement, dealing with ex pat puppets like Jibril and refusing to talk to genuine local opposition leaders. But the chances of success are lower, as the Syrian people have had a year of organisation and fighting behind them.

They are two totally different countries. Different history, culture, political history. What the outcomes will be is not dependent on how long the fighting took place. There are many other factors. There has traditionally been a fairly strong "left" in Syria, for example whereas there has been none in Libya.

Personally, I'm not happy making any short term predictions for either place .. but fire away yourself...

[Sam Lord]

Independents are kingmakers in the new assembly:

http://www.euronews.com/newswires/15...-new-assembly/

[Spectabilis]

David Cameron, following the resignation of Kofi Annan as the Syrian peace envoy, stated that 'Syria isn't Libya '

Well that's clear then.


http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/ash...or-561656.html

[C. Flower]

David Cameron, following the resignation of Kofi Annan as the Syrian peace envoy, stated that 'Syria isn't Libya '

Well that's clear then.


http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/ash...or-561656.html

"Syria isn't Libya it's a different situation, I don't think military approaches are right in this case, I have thought very carefully about that", he said

"But I think there is a lot more pressure we can put on".

More "suicide bombs" ?

[C. Flower]

I'm not sure what you are trying to say...but there is no doubt that the vast majority of the Libyan people did not support the tyrant and supported his overthrow even if they may not have all carried weapons. The capital, for example, where the propagandists would have us believe the citizens were armed to the teeth and ready to shed their last drop of blood for the dictator, was seized from Gaddafi's forces overnight .. by the people living in the city.

Certainly people took control of their neighbourhoods in some areas. But there was nothing remotely like the very clear mass support on the streets that was visible in Benghazi - hence the faked release of Benghazi footage captioned Tripoli.

Well there has been a vote now and his party won a lot of seats so you can say he has a right to play a role in shaping the constitution. How central that will be has yet to be seen.

It does. People have voted for a bright new US style future. I would be happy if they were to get what they hope for. I think there are two chances of that.

This also remains to be seen. But at least the mass are able to organise themselves politically now in their own interests as they see fit and will not be thrown into jail and tortured or executed for doing so.

I'm glad you are confident of that. Does that apply to all Libyans?

Libyas resources were already carved up between the Gaddifi family, their henchmen and foreign monopolists. It couldn't possibly be much worse.

I would like to see your evidence for that.

A snowball has a greater chance in hell that there now exists of someone being rendered to Libya by the CIA. Both you and I know that so why pretend otherwise.

As people have been rendered via Ireland in the past and as the new Libyan government was installed thanks to US intervention, I'm not quite sure why you think that. Gaddafi started to co-operate with the US under military duress after the invasion of Iraq and under threat of the same treatment.

If a revolution necessitated the transfer of power from one class to another we would be redefining a great deal of world history. What social class took over in the American revolution?

Well, I didn't define it as a revolution (nor would I define what happened in Ireland as a revolution). It was a successful anti-colonialist war.

As for the contention that what took place in Libya was a "coup" .. it is a proposition breathtaking in it's absurdity. In Libya a tyrant who had been in power for decades was overthrown in a popular uprising. That's the fact of the matter.

And so says Hilary Clinton et al. We will never know what a popular uprising against Gaddafi would look like as the movement that had started - which may or may not have had the capacity to become a mass movement - was quickly displaced by a military attack by NATO.

That is not the historical record ... but then the historical record never matters to some when it contradicts their worldview. The fact is that many NATO countries did not support the intervention and it caused a significant rift in the organisation.

Furthermore, there was clearly no plan for an intervention and everything was done on the wing. The US stopped providing any combat support in a short space of time ... leaving the running to the Brits and French who then ran out of bombs. Masterplan all in all.

We had a long thread here on the military build up in the Med - all on the record. And I must have blinked and missed the major and lasting political rift in NATO. Are you saying that the US withdrew its navy and other supports? Based on what ?

Gaddafi had been providing a foreign mercenary spine to the Libyan army for decades. Many of those who provided this and survived the revolution are now causing problems in Mali. I never saw any evidence that the Libyan army was ill equipped. Particularly not with regard to dealing with civilian insurgents.

Apart from two small places (Sirte and Bani Walid) the only people fighting for Gaddafi were the army.

The Libyan army was a small army. I will dig some numbers out for you at a more propitious hour.

Your figure of 30,000 is well inflated. More sober assessments would put it at half that. This has already been exceeded in Syria.

The opposition / NTC quoted figures of between 20,000 and 50,000. Are you saying that they lied ?

The "mass movement" carrying the day in Syria is a rag tag bunch of militias that foreign correspondents conveniently label the Free Syria Army. Not very different to the militias who defeated Gaddafi. I'm not sure what the mass movement you are keen on is doing. Who is leading it?

There were continous unarmed street demonstrations for about nine months before armed militias came into being - some local and spontaneous, and others infiltrated and armed from outside, like our Libyan friend from Dublin.

They are two totally different countries. Different history, culture, political history. What the outcomes will be is not dependent on how long the fighting took place. There are many other factors. There has traditionally been a fairly strong "left" in Syria, for example whereas there has been none in Libya.

None ? That's a very sweeping statement. Of course there are socialists in Libya, as there were in Egypt and in Tunisia under dictatorships.
The whole movement across North Africa and the Middle east is plainly contradictory. There are progressive sections of the population who are anti-imperialist, and others who want NATO in so they can open up a Starbucks in Tripoli. At times all together in the same militia or street demonstration. But we can be absolutely sure at all times that NATO and the NATO powers will be doing all they can to maintain or extend neo colonialism.

Personally, I'm not happy making any short term predictions for either place .. but fire away yourself...[/quote]You're right. Syria is very complex, a regional nexus of power balances and conflicts of interest, and the protest movement itself has contradictory content - egalitarian, "pro-democracy," religious, etc...etc.. No one could predict the outcome with confidence.

[C. Flower]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...tml?ref=topbar

NTC has handed power over to an elected assembly, and el Megarif, long term oppositionist, is interim President.

[C. Flower]

Sadness in Libya over the destruction of muslim mausoleums by Salafists.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...f644f3134b3.e1

[Count Bobulescu]

Sadness in Libya over the destruction of muslim mausoleums by Salafists.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...f644f3134b3.e1

Reminds of the Taliban destruction of the Buddhas in Afghan.

[C. Flower]

As I mentioned in Post #2:
"To hell in a hand-basket."

Most of us knew what to expect. Fundamentalist Islam tends to be kept in check only by ruthless dictatorships.

At the moment, there is no effective government at all, and I don't think anyone knows who did this. RPGs are two a penny in Libya, the place was flooded with them.

I think the problem is worse than that, in that right wing extremism masked under a banner of religion (Christian, after all in the case of Breivik) is beginning to run rampant across Europe and elsewhere in the absence of any solution to the economic crisis.

[C. Flower]

It seems to be in response to al-Zawahiri's statement.
The BBC correspondent couldn't find anyone who had seen the Youtube clip.
That said, such is the anti-American sentiment across the Arab world, word of mouth would have been enough to ensure a protest.

Would you have a link to that ?

The youtube sounds like a big fat provocation.

[eamo]

BIG trouble in Bengazi and Egypt:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-19562692

[Dr. FIVE]

all kicking off tonight

[C. Flower]

Very hard to know exactly what has gone on here. Tens of thousands reported to have demonstrated in Benghazi and militia bases have been overrun. On the face of it a desire for stability and peace.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/23/wo...compounds.html

[Dr. FIVE]

@MaryFitzgerldIT

Some Benghazi contacts euphoric re last night's raids, talking of 'our 2nd revolution'. Others unhappy, claiming it's a 'counter revolution'

seems about right

[riposte]

Tens of thousands reported to have demonstrated in Benghazi and militia bases have been overrun. On the face of it a desire for stability and peace.

I think I read something like that in Orwell's 1984 Cass.