Post War Libya - Where is it Going ?

[C. Flower]

Four ICC staff illegally held in Libya - http://www.breakingnews.ie/world/war...ya-554773.html

Elections postponed, probably until after August.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...582e5ad5b5.901

[C. Flower]

British Embassy Convoy fired on with RPGs today - no one killed.

Rumoured to be about smuggling lines to Libya - but why would the British Embassy be involved in that ?

[riposte]

British Embassy Convoy fired on with RPGs today - no one killed.

You win some, you lose some!

[Count Bobulescu]

An on-the-spot report.

http://www.npr.org/2012/06/13/154839...cc=nh-20120613

Some drove 180 miles from Derna, a Libyan city known for producing radicals.
When several trucks pulled over, we did, too, and chatted with a gunman. He told us he was marching to demand Shariah and "to kill the infidels."
He walked away before we could get his name, a youth with a Kalashnikov rifle strapped over his shoulder and a black flag on a stick attached to his back.
It's worth keeping this rhetoric in perspective: The young man did not take the opportunity to kill the non-Muslim right in front of him.

Yearning For Rule By Peace, Not Gun

Still, some Libyans were stunned to see so large an arsenal at a political demonstration.
As we drove along, a man on the street recognized our Libyan interpreter.
He came running to catch up with us and leaped in the front seat, ranting about the armed Islamists.
"If you want to rule by Islam, it's not like that," the man says. "Even our Prophet Muhammad is not behaving like that. It's written in our Quran ... if you want to rule by religion, you have to rule by peace, not by gun, or something like that."
This man is famous in Libya: Massoud Abu Assir, a singer who played in the rebels' front lines during the revolution.
He remembers religious conservatives harassing him then.
"These people, even in the front line, when I play with my guitar, always they come to make problem with me; they don't want me to sing in the front line," he says. "Always."

Bouisser did not want U.S. ground troops to come to Libya during the uprising. But he's so upset by the Islamist demonstration that he is ready for international intervention now.
"But now I agree, to see these people now, I agree to America comes to make Libya safe for at least two years, three years," he says.
That's not likely to happen anytime soon, but American officials are watching closely for signs of radical activity in eastern Libya.

[C. Flower]

An on-the-spot report.

http://www.npr.org/2012/06/13/154839...cc=nh-20120613

Yearning For Rule By Peace, Not Gun

Interesting bit on Dema, referred to as the most radical town (in terms of militant islamicism)

-

Moderates Vs. Radicals

Minutes after we arrived in Derna, we heard gunfire on the streets.

But it was apparently just a wedding celebration — a sign of a town that's well armed, but fairly calm.

People kept right on shopping on the main street and bargaining for cars at a waterfront auto market.

Residents of this city insisted to us that Derna is actually a moderate place.

Abdul Karim ben Tahir, a well-connected university professor, says he's no fan of extremists.

"Here, people don't like [extremists] at all. I don't deny that there are some. But here they are not liked," he says. "At the very beginning maybe some people took part in the revolution, they fought Gadhafi at the very beginning. And they were patriotic, but they don't want any law at all to govern the country. And if they take power, the country will be in a chaos."

Some Derna residents have already demonstrated their view of Qumu, the man who's worked for al-Qaida in the past.

At least two bombs have exploded in the city. People blamed Qumu, and the public outcry was fierce enough that he was forced to announce he was giving up command of his band of fighters.

Soon the city will have another chance to clarify where it stands. Derna, like the rest of Libya, is about to elect representatives to an assembly that will write a new constitution.

Those elections may show what Libyans think when they speak with votes rather than guns.

[C. Flower]

A military zone declared in the west, around Zintan, where pro and anti Gaddafi fighters have been in battles.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...4cfe7f5c93.651

There seems to be a fair amount of optimism about the elections from those that tweet.

Some former fighters are saying that they are having great difficulty getting treatment for injuries sustained in the fighting.

[Sam Lord]

Elections in Libya today for 200 member Public National Conference. It is expected that there will be some degree of disruption by Federalists in the East.

The elected Conference will appoint a Prime Minister, Cabinet and Constituent Authority, which will draw up a new constitution. This will be put to a referendum and, if approved, general elections will be held within six months.

100 seats have been allocated for Tripoli and the west, 60 for Benghazi and the east, and 40 for southwest.

There are about 3,700 candidates including 585 women. One hundred and twenty seats are reserved for individuals – 2,501 candidates are challenging for those – and 80 seats will be allotted according to party lists. There are 1,206 party candidates.


The main contending parties appear to be:

Justice and Construction Party led by Mohamed Sowan of Misrata. This is essentially the Muslim Brotherhood.

Al-Watan (Homeland) led by Abdel-Hakim Belhaj and the Salfist cleric Ali al-Sallabi. Islamist.

Alliance of National Forces led by led by former premier Mahmoud Jibril. It includes 44 political organizations, 236 NGOs, and more than 280 independents. Somewhat secular. Jibril served in the Gaddafi regime from 2007 to early 2011.

National Front led led by Mohamed el-Magariaf. Essentualy an outgrowth of the National Front for the Salvation of Libya (NFSL), an anti-Gaddafi resistance group formed externally in the 1980s. Somewhat secular.

National Centrist led by former Finance Minister Ali Tarhouni who always struck me as Washington's man. It is secular.

It is being reported that negotiations between the Muslim Brotherhood and Mahmoud Jibril have alread taken place with regard to forming a post election government. At the same time it would seem like a very bad idea to keep Belhaj out.

I have not come across any left wing parties but I did come across Majdah al-Fallah a doctor who lived in Ireland for years.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default...7-7-2012_pg4_9

[Sam Lord]

43 Political Parties in Libya with a link to their webpages.

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1...Zwg/edit?pli=1

[Sam Lord]

Turnout of around 60% reported. There was some violence but apparently votes were cast at 98% of the polling stations.

Counting is underway. Jibrils Alliance of National Forces is reported to be leading the poll in most constituencies. This has been acknowledged by the Islamists according to reports.

[Sam Lord]

Official election results were expected today but with various recounts still going on they are not now anticipated until Monday. It seems clear, however, that the Alliance of National Forces has won a landslide. (or so the media reports go). The Islamists are not best pleased and are turning up the heat. Whereas before the election they were counting on going into colaition with Jibril now they are pointing to his connections with the past regime.

Meanwhile, things are hotting up around Bani Walid, the boil that was never lanced. Two journalists from Misrata travelling past the town some days ago were seized by elements within the town who demanded the release of some men from the town taken prisoner by NTC some time ago. Needless to say the powers that be in Misrata did not respond in that manner but fully mobilised their milita who are now surrounding Bani Walid in large numbers with their pick up trucks and, according to some reports, a large number of tanks.

last I heard attempts by tribal elders to negotiate a peaceful settlement had broken down.

[C. Flower]

Results for 80 out of 200 seats for #NC #LYELECT #Libya #AllahuAkbar

http://t.co/CLo3WNgo

Recounts going on in some districts.

#Libya: Jebril coalition wins 40 of 80 seats in party section of elections; MB 16, National Front 3, Tarhouni list 2, Swehli list 2

[C. Flower]

CNN interview with Jibril introduced by Christiane Amanpour (check her biography )

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OvVpchjie6U"]mahmoud jibril cnn interview 12 7 2012 - YouTube[/ame]

RTE's "World Report" on now has a piece on the election by Mary Fitzgerald, reporting from Benghazi. Lacking in any real "colour" unfortunately.

One third of the population registered to vote.

Turn out was over 50%, reportedly and 80% of those eligible registered to vote. There were a number of shootings at polling stations.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/NEWS/tabid...ng-begins.aspx

A good FAQ on the elections and their extremely complex mode of election and legal framework -

http://www.libyaherald.com/elections...ked-questions/

Jibril formerly worked for Said Gaddafi.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Jibril

Career

Jibril graduated in Economics and Political Science from Cairo University in 1975,[9] then earned a master's degree in political science in 1980 and a doctorate in political science in 1985, both from the University of Pittsburgh.[10] He taught strategic planning at Pittsburgh for several years.[citation needed]
Jibril led the team who drafted and formed the Unified Arab Training manual. He was also responsible for organizing and administering the first two Training conferences in the Arab world in the years 1987 and 1988. He later took over the management and administration of many of the leadership training programs for senior management in Arab countries including Bahrain, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates, as well as Turkey and the United Kingdom.[9]
From 2007 to early 2011, he served in the Gaddafi regime as head of the National Planning Council of Libya and of the National Economic Development Board of Libya (NEDB),[11]. While there, he was a protégé of Saif al-Islam Gaddafi and promoted privatization and liberalization policies.[12][13][14]

An interesting "revolutionary".

From Wikileaks -

On March 7, 2008:

15.(C) In addition, xxxxxxxxxxxx who works with Libya’s economic and financial sectors told EconOff March 11 that Dr. Mahmoud Jibril, head of the National Planning Commission, ally of Saif al-Islam and a leading advocate for economic reform, would play a key role on three of the five implementing committees – budget, economy and wealth distribution. Jibril, who as recently as early February was so frustrated by his inability to effect reform that he had submitted letters of resignation on three occasions, is reportedly now convinced that Qadhafi’s commitment to dramatic change is sincere enough that he has agreed to stay on – for now...

On May 11, 2009, describing a meeting with “Mahmoud Jibril, Chair of the National Economic Development Board (NEDB), an organization that Jibril likened to a “think tank” of multi-disciplinary experts.”:

The NEDB’s role in these projects is to “pave the way” for private sector development, and to create a strategic partnership between private companies and the government. There is a still a “gap of distrust” dividing the two. As to whether Libya has a Master Plan that includes all the 11,000 projects, Jibril admitted that in the past two years, Libya had started executing projects without such a plan. However, the NEDB has been working with experts from Ernst and Young, the Oxford Group, and lately with five consultants from UNDP to advise the prime minister on the best sequencing and pacing of the projects in order to decrease poverty and unemployment.

With a PhD in strategic planning from the University of Pittsburgh, Jibril is a serious interlocutor who “gets” the U.S. perspective. He is also not shy about sharing his views of U.S. foreign policy, for example, opining that the U.S. spoiled a golden opportunity to capitalize on its “soft power” (McDonald’s, etc.) after the fall of the Soviet Union...

http://zunguzungu.wordpress.com/2011/03/23/meet-mahmoud...

Jibril, and "the U.S. perspective" are the big winners of the NATO assault on Libya.

The idea of Ernst and Young advising Libya, then with the lowest poverty rates in Africa, on anti-poverty measures would be comical, if it wasn't tragic.

[C. Flower]

Anyone with any doubts about the character of the Libyan "revolution" should read this excellent profile of Jibril and his central role in events, in Time Magazine online.

http://world.time.com/2012/07/11/mee...rss-topstories

Back in 2010, TIME paid a visit to Mahmoud Jibril, a U.S.-educated policy wonk in Libya’s capital Tripoli who’d been drafted by Muammar Gaddafi’s government to overhaul the country’s state-run economy after decades of one-man rule. Sitting in his large office in the National Economic Development Board, Jibril laid out a vision for a Western-style government that would transform Libya from a stifling dictatorship into a thriving 21st century country. “There must be a legal frame with division of powers, and the right of free expression,” he told TIME then. “We are very late. We have to shorten the time span of things.”

As it happened, it took a bloody revolution and thousands of deaths, including Gaddafi’s, to shorten the time span for Jibril’s plan — something that seemed unimaginable in 2010.

Having left to study in the U.S. in 1975, Jibril later consulted several Arab governments in economic management and had little thought of returning to Libya. Then in 2007, he was lured home by the one man who appeared capable enough of pushing through drastic reforms — Gaddafi’s hugely powerful son Saif al-Islam. In his new job, Jibril told the U.S. ambassador to Libya, Gene Cretz, that Libya was “opening widely and very fast,” according to a diplomatic cable written by Cretz in 2009, published by WikiLeaks. In a markedly optimistic report, Cretz said Jibril had convinced him that there were lucrative business opportunities for American companies in Libya. “Jibril is a serious interlocutor who ‘gets’ the U.S. perspective,” he wrote.

But by early 2011, Jibril had concluded that Saif’s ideas of reform — real or not — were doomed, so long as his father and the conservative henchmen surrounding him remained in power. Jibril slipped out of Tripoli in Feb. 2011 and joined the revolution in Benghazi, where he had been raised. Then, he quickly began pushing world leaders to back the rebels. Equally at home in Western capitals (as Cretz had suggested), Jibril clinched formal recognition for the rebels from President Nicolas Sarkozy in a crucial meeting at the Élysée Palace in March 2011, which presaged NATO’s bombing campaign weeks later. In Tripoli, Saif fumed to TIME that his closest associates — chief among them was Jibril — had betrayed him “big time.” But by then, Jibril’s diplomatic footwork had succeeded, and it was the Gaddafi regime, rather than Saif’s reform plan, that was doomed.

Jibril went on to head the rebel leaders’ National Transitional Council, but many of his colleagues criticized him for failing to delegate responsibilities properly. He quit the job after Gaddafi was killed last October, and began plotting his political future — one rooted in part on his huge success in turning last year’s rebellion into a full-scale revolution. “He was instrumental in getting international approval for the rebels, and everyone gives him credit for that,”

Even with those skills, Jibril’s new job, either as the leader or as a key strategist, will be no cakewalk. With massive oil reserves and only about 6.3 million people, Libya has the cash with which to implement economic reforms — a far different situation from, say, Egypt, which depends heavily on U.S. aid. Yet countless weapons remain in the hands of potentially hostile militia groups. And youth unemployment remains rampant, according to the African Development Bank.

Jibril will begin with one big advantage, however: a ready-made plan for the future, which he drafted as head of Libya’s Economic Development Board, using consultants from Monitor Group in Cambridge, Mass.; Ernst & Young; and the Oxford Group. At the time those groups were heavily criticized by some Libya watchers for believing that it was possible to reform Libya under Gaddafi — a criticism that proved correct.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...f-the-NTC.html

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2...ya-jibril.html

Jibril, who was born in 1952, attended university in Cairo and then Pittsburgh. He earned a master's degree in political science in 1980 and a PhD in 1984 at the University of Pittsburgh.

He turned his dissertation into a book, Imagery and Ideology in U.S. Policy Toward Libya, 1969-1982. In the book, one of 10 he has published, he writes critically of U.S. foreign policy. (On the book's cover, his name appears as "Mahmoud G Elwarfally," and his last name is also occasionally written as Gebril.)

Jibril returned to the Middle East, teaching at Garyounis University in Benghazi, Libya, and running his own company, Gebril for Training and Consultancy, which operated across the region.

About six years ago, Gadhafi's son, Seif, persuaded Jibril to join his effort to restructure the Libyan economy.

In 2009, the U.S. ambassador to Libya at the time, Gene Cretz, wrote that Jibril "'gets' the U.S. perspective" in a cable released last year by Wikileaks.

Cretz wrote that at a meeting with Jibril he "highlighted the need to replace the country's decrepit infrastructure and train Libyans" and requested American public and private assistance to do so. In his pitch, he told the ambassador that Libya, "has a stable regime and is 'virgin country' for investors."

Jibril must have been persuasive. The cable concludes, "we should take him up on his offer."

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?p...19318428097153

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/13/op...lwarfally.html

http://www.thereadingroom.com/imager...982/bp/3822907

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/story/2...ya-jibril.html

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2011/ap...oppo-a02.shtml - On CIA involvement with the Libyan "transition."

Jibril mentored in Pittsburgh University by CIA agent, Iran specialist, Richard Cottam.

http://www.boston.com/news/world/afr..._of_rebellion/

[Sam Lord]

Anyone with any doubts about the character of the Libyan "revolution" should read this excellent profile of Jibril and his central role in events, in Time Magazine online.

The Libyan people fought to overthrow a dictator not to establish socialism. I doubt that anyone on the planet is confused about that. They did not have to vote for Jibril but they did ... that is the fact of the matter whether you like it or not. And he may be a creature of imperialism but at least he is one the Libyan people freely selected, not one who imposed himself on them. And they are free now to organise themselves politically along whatever lines they like. The previous communist organisation, there, came to a sorry end at the hands of Gaddafi, as you probably know many decades ago. Like all political organisation other than his own.

And I doubt that under the new dispensation you will see things like the Brits and the Yanks rendering people to Libya to be tortured.

The Libyan revolution was all good. It is not good for the dignity or spirit of people to languish without rights under dictators.

It is amusing to see the left all over the world who are supposed to be great
internationalists wishing nothing but bad for the Libyan people and standing around like vultures over the Libyan revolution waiting for everything to go pear shaped so that they can pronounce "we told you so". And all because the Libyan people invelgied NATO to provide support to their uprising. The left would have preferred to see Libya like Syria.... in a state of brutal civil conflict for years with an insurgency without the means to defeat a well trained, well armed, professional army that has essentially remained loyal to the regime... and a dictator unable to defeat the insurgency. And the slaughter continuing day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year.

[C. Flower]

The Libyan people fought to overthrow a dictator not to establish socialism. I doubt that anyone on the planet is confused about that. They did not have to vote for Jibril but they did ... that is the fact of the matter whether you like it or not. And he may be a creature of imperialism but at least he is one the Libyan people freely selected, not one who imposed himself on them. And they are free now to organise themselves politically along whatever lines they like. The previous communist organisation, there, came to a sorry end at the hands of Gaddafi, as you probably know many decades ago. Like all political organisation other than his own.

Most Libyan people didn't fight at all, as NATO moved in before a mass movement developed.

Jibril walked into power unelected, a few months out of the Gaddafi government, and was immediately recognised by all the NATO powers. Nobody voted. He has been central in shaping the electoral process and now will be central in shaping the constitution.

Some people - the most articulate, advantaged people in Libya, will gain from the change of regime. The mass will not. Libya will be looted.

There was similar optimism from many people after the fall of the USSR - I am not saying that the Gaddafi regime was equivalent, but I am saying that the door is open for a carve up of Libya's resources and many people will be much worse off.

And I doubt that under the new dispensation you will see things like the Brits and the Yanks rendering people to Libya to be tortured.

Jibril worked in Cairo under the military regime, and under Gaddafi when renditions were taking place at the behest of his US and UK friends. I am quite sure he will have no problem in doing all he can to assist US and UK "programmes." His problem with Gaddafi was that he wasn't "westernising" fast enough.

The Libyan revolution was all good.

It is not good for the dignity or spirit of people to languish without rights under dictators.

The Libyan uprising was hijacked. There has been a coup. If you think there was a revolution, which social class took over, from which social class?

It is amusing to see the left all over the world who are supposed to be great internationalists wishing nothing but bad for the Libyan people and standing around like vultures over the Libyan revolution waiting for everything to go pear shaped so that they can pronounce "we told you so".

I would be delighted if things worked out well for all the people of Libya, but there is nothing in Jibril's plans to make me think it will, unless they get rid of him first. I wish them every luck in that. People who have stood up against similar US friendly characters in Eastern European countries have come across well equipped and well trained riot police.

So-called lefts who put their faith in bonapartist leaders like Gadaffi, Assad, Saddam are indeed in some cases doing the vulture thing. Not a pretty sight.

And all because the Libyan people invelgied NATO to provide support to their uprising. The left would have preferred to see Libya like Syria.... in a state of brutal civil conflict for years with an insurgency without the means to defeat a well trained, well armed, professional army that has essentially remained loyal to the regime... and a dictator unable to defeat the insurgency. And the slaughter continuing day after day, week after week, month after month, year after year.

NATO was in like a rat up a drainpipe. It didn't need to be asked by anyone twice. If the Gaddafi regime was as ineffectual and as hated as you suggest, it would not have lasted long in a serious uprising. The Libyan army was relatively small and poorly equipped. Gaddafi kept it that way deliberately, in case of a coup attempt.

Over 30,000 people died in the Libyan conflict, many more than have died in Syria, where a mass movement has steadily developed.

In Syria, like Libya, every effort is being made by the US to hijack the movement, dealing with ex pat puppets like Jibril and refusing to talk to genuine local opposition leaders. But the chances of success are lower, as the Syrian people have had a year of organisation and fighting behind them.