The Ongoing Political Transformation of Europe

[barrym]

There is a sort of inevitability here. This gang of four stuff is being carefully stage managed to allow Merkel to agree the principles but avoid the actuals for the moment. Inda's guff in the IT is designed to soften us up for the inevitable referendum which will be needed to agree even the basics of the proposals. However, it won't happen this year, maybe not next year, probably 2014.

The hope (pious one) is that a statement this week from the Summit that banking union will happen will be enough to calm the noise in the market, while Merkel will say no Eurobonds, Inda will say no tax harmonsiation, Monti will say nuffin.

Then off in to the Summer hols.

In September there will be renewed pressure, probably Italy. Another Summit, another set of 'reassurances' this time moving towards some sort of Eurobonds, but allowing Merkel to say no again. Inda will say then that we are the good boys, again, we'll be back in the market in 2013 (we won't) and banking union is proceeding apace but Ireland has redlined harmonisation.

Decemberish, more panic, more summit, gang of four comes out with updated version, creating bonds, semi-€ version. Merkel says maybe.

Mid 2013 bonds created for the really bad cases, we hang on the coatails, don't need to go back to the market, we are collateralised by ECB.

End 2013/early 2014 - Eurobonds in everything but name are to be created. Banking and fiscal union are declared, budgets are harmonised, but individual countries may have temporary derogation, as long as they don't actually affect their membership of the Union, and their need for loans (how long the 15% corpo tax in that scenario?)

Mid 2014, referendum, even more fear and loathing, we will have to leave the Union if we don't say yes and we will have to pay back all the ECB money of we do so..... But banks are now controlled so that's ok then......

Can we refer back to this post from time to time over the next 24 months?? What sort of government will we have post a 2015 GE??

[Greengoddess]

Perhaps just forcefully and consistently pointing out the democratic deficit,thereby creating a transparency that would otherwise be absent, and pushing a democratisation agenda, is a good enough reason to be there. Worth every Eurocent?

Yes I guess. But we/I also do a lot of legislation that would send everyone to sleep here. Here, once again are my finances . They give you a surprise. Journalists get quite cross! I have calculated that I am paid the same as a principal civil servant with the Brussels overnight rate for hotels/rent.


http://www.nessachilders.ie/income/

This morning Enda is saying there will not be a referendum. Lucinda says yes. There is an element of political fatigue setting in which is as dangerous as anything else.
But it may be in the interests of Germany who seem to be wearing the other MS down . As for our own government . I don't know if Labour will toddle around obediently this time. There has been a lot of trouble after the last one. You may have noticed the silence this time......

[barrym]

http://www.nessachilders.ie/income/

Nice one Nessa, wish some of your colleagues would be as honest. In fact all publicly paid people should be required to publish their income.

B

[Greengoddess]

Nice one Nessa, wish some of your colleagues would be as honest. In fact all publicly paid people should be required to publish their income.

B

Some of my colleagues ( not labour) get very cross with me about this.....

[Greengoddess]

Interview with Guy Verhostadt

http://m.euractiv.com/details.php?aid=513566

I personally think that the first part of this, what ever it can be called, will take place without a referendum here. Seemingly we will support it sight unseen. According to Creighton. Labour is silent on the issue and will once again regret allowing European Affairs to leave Gilmore's Ministry. I myself will only support if it is right for us . There needs to be a serious debate. Problem is that a referendum would require a convention which we will not have now.

[ang]

Amazing how a systemic crisis can be called a political crisis when it suits. -

For the first time in such a serious financial crisis, many appear to know more or less what should be done…

We have known it already for three years. Some for five or even eight years.

This is more of a political crisis than an economic crisis. The trigger is the public finances and mainly the public finance in a country like Greece, but also in other countries, but that’s only the trigger. It’s not the source of the problem. The source of the problem is the lack of a federal union besides the monetary union so that countries the last 10 years have diverged in their budgetary issues or economic reforms instead of converging to each other. So it’s a political crisis. That is a real political crisis.

http://m.euractiv.com/details.php?aid=513566

[Greengoddess]

Amazing how a systemic crisis can be called a political crisis when it suits. -



http://m.euractiv.com/details.php?aid=513566

Yes but can they be separated anymore. The systemicn crisi, for instance, began because of partly political issues. Headwrecking stuff of course. It seems to me that the system has taken on a life of its own like some AI that no one understands. In a way that might not be a bad thing.

[Ephilant]

In a way that might not be a bad thing.

Would you like to come and have a look in the backstreets of Athens, Thessaloniki and Patra and see how much of "not a bad thing" this might just be...
Any system that is based on infinite, unlimited growth but has to achieve that using finite, limited resources is flawd in its basic premises. Any politician who still thinks this can be achieved and any means to try and achieve that are justifiable is dangerously insane.

[ang]

Yes but can they be separated anymore. The systemicn crisi, for instance, began because of partly political issues. Headwrecking stuff of course. It seems to me that the system has taken on a life of its own like some AI that no one understands. In a way that might not be a bad thing.

Yes, political and financial systems have broken down (to different extents) The financial systems though have led the politicians into very dangerous territory.

Academically it is easy to look at a piece of paper and say -"recap this, cut this, change that" working on figures and formulas that don't include social policy for people has been a huge part of the failure but ultimately politicians carry the can for following the instructions of the vested interest financials against the will of the people.

If one looks at the financial crisis in the USA does it give any reason to believe a USE will solve our woes ?

As @cassflower pointed out somewhere around here confusion seems to be the intent.

But be very assured purpose has been part of the cause.

[Greengoddess]

Would you like to come and have a look in the backstreets of Athens, Thessaloniki and Patra and see how much of "not a bad thing" this might just be...
Any system that is based on infinite, unlimited growth but has to achieve that using finite, limited resources is flawd in its basic premises. Any politician who still thinks this can be achieved and any means to try and achieve that are justifiable is dangerously insane.

But that is what I mean. Unfortunately the awful situation in Greece may precipitate some kind of realisation that it is humanly and politically impossible to continue with the staus quo. That it should never have gotten to this point goes without saying.

[Greengoddess]

Yes, political and financial systems have broken down (to different extents) The financial systems though have led the politicians into very dangerous territory.

Academically it is easy to look at a piece of paper and say -"recap this, cut this, change that" working on figures and formulas that don't include social policy for people has been a huge part of the failure but ultimately politicians carry the can for following the instructions of the vested interest financials against the will of the people.

If one looks at the financial crisis in the USA does it give any reason to believe a USE will solve our woes ?

As @cassflower pointed out somewhere around here confusion seems to be the intent.

But be very assured purpose has been part of the cause.

The question of vested interests is very serious. We have them too but it is almost impossible to get anyone to see this. I think the more useful chaos comes from suffering populations reaching critical mass and changing the system. No doubt I will be accused of inciting anarchy. Vested interests of the other kind are not omnipotent and political classes who are in their control will be unmasked eventually. This was the real purpose behind an enquiry in to the bank guarantee etc.

[ang]

The question of vested interests is very serious. We have them too but it is almost impossible to get anyone to see this. I think the more useful chaos comes from suffering populations reaching critical mass and changing the system. No doubt I will be accused of inciting anarchy. Vested interests of the other kind are not omnipotent and political classes who are in their control will be unmasked eventually. This was the real purpose behind an enquiry in to the bank guarantee etc.

Sometimes its hard to get people to see what they don't want to look at

Meanwhile Enda tells us where he stands -

*IRELAND'S KENNY SAYS DOESN'T SUPPORT FEDERAL EUROPE

I await Eamons stance and indeed Michaels.

[disability student]

The question of vested interests is very serious. We have them too but it is almost impossible to get anyone to see this. I think the more useful chaos comes from suffering populations reaching critical mass and changing the system. No doubt I will be accused of inciting anarchy. Vested interests of the other kind are not omnipotent and political classes who are in their control will be unmasked eventually. This was the real purpose behind an enquiry in to the bank guarantee etc.

Yes i agree with this re vested interest in particular Sutherland, he rang FF govt on the night of guarantee as he was able to access them at will.

Also Nationwide and Anglo had lent loads of loans without any security or collateral attached to them- FF people especially the donators/contrubutors to FF funds. I believe that Cowen designed a Finance bill to serve their business interests.

So far 38 tax avoidance schemes with loopholes not closed down to date. Curious to see the revenue keep slient re tax avoidance schemes, Some of us were trained in tax as we could see that regular advice given out was to keep their tax bill down via these schemes.It benefited a lot especially Judges, Barristers, developers, politicans et al.

[Greengoddess]

What does he mean by that ? More incoherence. None of us will actually know anything until Thursday.

[Greengoddess]

Yes i agree with this revested interestin particular Sutherland, he rang FF govt on the night of guarantee as he was able to access them at will.

Also Nationwide and Anglo had lent loads of loans without any security or collateral attached to them- FF people especially the donators/contrubutors to FF funds. I believe that Cowen designed a Finance bill to serve their business interests.

So far 38 tax avoidance schemes with loopholes not closed down to date. Curious to see the revenue keep slient re tax avoidance schemes, Some of us were trained in tax as we could see that regular advice given out was to keep their tax bill down via these schemes.It benefited a lot especially Judges, Barristers, developers, politicans et al.

Sutherland, who we believe is really a god in human form. Pat Cox a minor deity.