There is a sort of inevitability here. This gang of four stuff is being carefully stage managed to allow Merkel to agree the principles but avoid the actuals for the moment. Inda's guff in the IT is designed to soften us up for the inevitable referendum which will be needed to agree even the basics of the proposals. However, it won't happen this year, maybe not next year, probably 2014.
The hope (pious one) is that a statement this week from the Summit that banking union will happen will be enough to calm the noise in the market, while Merkel will say no Eurobonds, Inda will say no tax harmonsiation, Monti will say nuffin.
Then off in to the Summer hols.
In September there will be renewed pressure, probably Italy. Another Summit, another set of 'reassurances' this time moving towards some sort of Eurobonds, but allowing Merkel to say no again. Inda will say then that we are the good boys, again, we'll be back in the market in 2013 (we won't) and banking union is proceeding apace but Ireland has redlined harmonisation.
Decemberish, more panic, more summit, gang of four comes out with updated version, creating bonds, semi-€ version. Merkel says maybe.
Mid 2013 bonds created for the really bad cases, we hang on the coatails, don't need to go back to the market, we are collateralised by ECB.
End 2013/early 2014 - Eurobonds in everything but name are to be created. Banking and fiscal union are declared, budgets are harmonised, but individual countries may have temporary derogation, as long as they don't actually affect their membership of the Union, and their need for loans (how long the 15% corpo tax in that scenario?)
Mid 2014, referendum, even more fear and loathing, we will have to leave the Union if we don't say yes and we will have to pay back all the ECB money of we do so..... But banks are now controlled so that's ok then......
Can we refer back to this post from time to time over the next 24 months?? What sort of government will we have post a 2015 GE??