Bloomberg: Irish growth figure for 2012 to be cut by 1% in November 4th report?

[PaddyJoe]

Significant cut if this report is to be believed. The 'going forward, turning the corner' story is based on continuing export growth.
It also throws the IMF/EU/ECB roadmap off course.
Back to the drawing board, Mr Noonan

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Ireland's government may cut at least 1 percentage point off its 2012 economic forecast, as a global slowdown curbs the country's export-led recovery, according to two people familiar with the matter.

Finance Minister Michael Noonan said last month that the country may cut its gross domestic product forecast from 2.5 percent, published on April 29. The government details its medium-term budgetary outlook on Nov. 4 and may lower the forecast, according to the people who declined to be identified because the figures haven't been finalized.

“Work is under way on the medium-term fiscal statement,” said Eoin Dorgan, a spokesman for Noonan, declining to comment on the growth forecasts.
http://news.businessweek.com/article.asp?documentKey=1376-LTRXIX0UQVI901-563C0GK2TCSTS7GP8C2NDFUO2F

[C. Flower]

After a deflationary budget, and with the world economy in chaos, that still looks optimistic to me. The implication is the need for a second bailout in 2012 and a Greece Mark II situation for Ireland.

[morticia]

After a deflationary budget, and with the world economy in chaos, that still looks optimistic to me. The implication is the need for a second bailout in 2012 and a Greece Mark II situation for Ireland.

Actually, if the French manage to get some deal done on their bank bailout (now inevitable), I'd imagine we might be able to benefit from a debt reduction "legitimately".

I have always argued that the ECB printing presses should be in charge of bank bailouts.... in an era of fairly constant global contraction and increasing resource scarcity, it will become abundantly apparent that all banks are a bottomless spiralling pit of bad debt. The printing press is the only way to avoid collapse

Unfortunately, we still have to deal with the deficit, but without the accumulated bank debt, that would be do-able. Especially if we got a refund....

[disability student]

I have a feeling that returns for corporation taxes and self employed are down in this particular month. Usually at this time of the year, Corporation taxes and Self employed (self -assessments) generated hugely year in year for that particular month. Also the VAT returns next November, which would decide the nature of the cuts & how big would it be in the coming budget.

Usually Vat returns had enabled previous govt/s to tide it over the defecit of the yearly accounts into a surplus. However, the slump in domestic and retail demand would spell a big drop in terms of VAT collections, which in turn would result an increase in govt accounts- deficit.