musashi
06-04-2010, 11:59 PM
The light at the end of the tunnel?
Who knows, every cloud has a silver lining.
http://www.daft.ie/report/?utm_source=hp_link&utm_campaign=daft_house_price_report_q1_2010
Professor Lucey: So the crash is slowing. However, it is not over. The Daft.ie index peaked in May 2007. To expect the trough to be reached less than three years later is to fly in the face of historical evidence. Referring back to Morgan Kelly's prescient, eye-opening ESR article which for many of us represented the key moment when our critical faculties on property were rebooted, a fall of 50% is likely. Based on a straight line projection of average declines in value since the peak this would see another 18 months of declining prices. That would be 50 months of house price falls, or just over 4 years, towards the lower end of historical experience. It is probable that as we decline towards the trough, the speed at which house prices fall slows down. And this is what we are starting to see - in the last six months, the average decline has been lower than the previous six months, itself lower then the period before.
http://c8.dmstatic.com/report/images/2010-Q1-sale-asking.png
http://c2.dmstatic.com/report/images/2010-Q1-sale-stock-flow.png
Who knows, every cloud has a silver lining.
http://www.daft.ie/report/?utm_source=hp_link&utm_campaign=daft_house_price_report_q1_2010
Professor Lucey: So the crash is slowing. However, it is not over. The Daft.ie index peaked in May 2007. To expect the trough to be reached less than three years later is to fly in the face of historical evidence. Referring back to Morgan Kelly's prescient, eye-opening ESR article which for many of us represented the key moment when our critical faculties on property were rebooted, a fall of 50% is likely. Based on a straight line projection of average declines in value since the peak this would see another 18 months of declining prices. That would be 50 months of house price falls, or just over 4 years, towards the lower end of historical experience. It is probable that as we decline towards the trough, the speed at which house prices fall slows down. And this is what we are starting to see - in the last six months, the average decline has been lower than the previous six months, itself lower then the period before.
http://c8.dmstatic.com/report/images/2010-Q1-sale-asking.png
http://c2.dmstatic.com/report/images/2010-Q1-sale-stock-flow.png