Taxes down as exchequer figures behind expectations

[Digout]

The crash is getting crashier.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0402/breaking25.html

[disability student]

The crash is getting crashier.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0402/breaking25.html

More details are here:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2010/End-March_2010_Exchequer_Statement.pdf

All tax revenues are down with the exception of non -tax revenues.

They would badly need a stimulus to reawaken the economy which they have no intention of doing so.:mad:

[Xray]

Well apart from the further 4 billion of cuts this Dec and more reductions in domestic spending I cant see any reason why we would not have bottomed out. I forgot the 4 or 5 billion interest billion in the future for our national debt and another 20 billion to slash off spending.
All will be well by 2016 when there will be 5 people at work, a deficit of 3 cents and a functioning NAMA.

[disability student]

More details:

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/exchequerstatements/2010/End-March_2010_Tax_Receipts_Analysis.pdf

[disability student]

The biggest fall is CGT a massive drop of 55%.

Corporation tax - drop- 45%

Stamps - drop of 20%

Customs - drop of 9%

Income Tax drop of 4% approx

Vat drop of 1.7%

That's from projected figures to the actual figures.

It seems the DOF have a habit of getting their projections wrong for a while. :(

[Digout]

Corporation tax 45% under the estimate. Capital gains 55% under estimate. For anything who thinks the economy is moving in the right direction, those figures are evidence that the country is fucked.

[Digout]

Year on year corporation tax is down a whopping 74%.

[disability student]

Actual figures Y on Y (all down)

Income tax -10%
VAT -13%
Corporation tax -74% Approx
Excise -1.9%
Stamps- 29.4%
CGT - 34.7%

CAT -12.7%
Customs 17.3%
Levies -
Unallocated tax deposits-

[Digout]

Another budget is def required.

[Cassandra Syndrome]

Wasn't too far off in my predictions. Weighing the performance so far this year it suggests receipts will come in at under 26 Billion Euro for the year and a budget deficit of around 24 Billion before Bank caps. Receipts are down 15% yoy and over 30% from peak.

Another mini budget coming soon.

http://www.politicalworld.org/showthread.php?t=751

[disability student]

Mods please merge the threads and thanks.

[Digout]

Tax is down €266m from what was predicted in the budget 4 months ago. Yet Lenihan says he was expecting this, WTF ?

[disability student]

Tax is down €266m from what was predicted in the budget 4 months ago. Yet Lenihan says he was expecting this, WTF ?

what tax are you referring to?

Income tax down by a whopping 302M.

VAT down by a whopping 482M.

These two tax receipts are the vital signs to the Irish economy.

[DCon]

Another budget is def required.

and FF have promised no more PS cuts.

Does this include the protected PS elite?

[C. Flower]

Lenihan is still waiting for the international boom that is going to solve everything, without having to lift a finger about employment.

[bubbletrouble]

By May maybe Lenihan will wake up. VAT hit hard.

One retailer I've spoken to last week has decided to call it a day. They did try wait it out for the last 4 months but realised they would be in much worse off situation if they waited till the end of the year. So they are now paying off the small debts and deciding that the bigger, more mainstream suppliers and others can take the hit.

[Garland Names the Planets]

Transferring your exchequer funding from IT/CT to CGT, the everlasting appreciation of static assets. How could that ever go wrong?

[Arnold Layne]

and FF have promised no more PS cuts.

Is that not dependant on economic prosperity?

[Baron von Biffo]

and FF have promised no more PS cuts.

Does this include the protected PS elite?

Have you considered the impact of the previous PS cuts on those figures?

When PS pay is cut so is the amount of PAYE going back in on the revenue side. VAT, Excise etc will also be down as they have less to spend.

300,000 people spending less has down stream consequences as well, inevitably it will have cost jobs in vulnerable sectors like retail. That leads to another drop in revenue and so the downward spiral continues.

But sure who cares about any of that so long as the elite clerical officers and street sweepers are nailed?

[DCon]

Is that not dependant on economic prosperity?

From what I have seen of the proposed agreement FF (Greens & Harney) have pledged no more cuts and a reversal of the cuts to date if the economny improves.

[disability student]

From what I have seen of the proposed agreement FF (Greens & Harney) have pledged no more cuts and a reversal of the cuts to date if the economny improves.

Can you provide the source to this re agreement? Thanks.

[DCon]

Can you provide the source to this re agreement? Thanks.


Public Service Pay Policy

15. There will be no further reductions in the pay rates of serving public servants for the lifetime of this Agreement. This commitment is subject to compliance with the terms of this Agreement.

16. The position concerning public service pay, including any outstanding adjudication findings, will be reviewed in Spring 2011 in accordance with the statutory requirement under both the Financial Emergency Measures in the Public Interest Acts of 2009 to review the operation, effectiveness and impact of the Acts before 30 June 2011, and every year thereafter. In addition to the criteria set out in those Acts, that review will take account of sustainable savings generated from the implementation of this Agreement and of the agreements in each sector. Those savings will be independently verified by the Implementation Body. In the event of sufficient savings being identified in the Spring 2011 review, priority will be given to the public servants with pay rates of €35,000 or less in the review of pay which will be undertaken at that stage.

http://www.siptu.ie/campaigns/PUBLICSERVICEAGREEMENT2010-2014/Name,11479,en.html

[Xray]

Can you provide the source to this re agreement? Thanks.

Public Service Pay Policy
15. There will be no further reductions in the pay rates of serving public servants for the lifetime of this Agreement. This commitment is subject to compliance with the terms of this Agreement.

16. The position concerning public service pay, including any outstanding adjudication findings, will be reviewed in Spring 2011 in accordance with the statutory requirement under both the Financial Emergency Measures in the Public Interest Acts of 2009 to review the operation, effectiveness and impact of the Acts before 30 June 2011, and every year thereafter. In addition to the criteria set out in those Acts, that review will take account of sustainable savings generated from the implementation of this Agreement and of the agreements in each sector. Those savings will be independently verified by the Implementation Body. In the event of sufficient savings being identified in the Spring 2011 review, priority will be given to public servants with pay rates of €35,000 or less in the review of pay which will be undertaken at that stage.

[Xray]

27. The parties agree that:
• no cost-increasing claims by trade unions or employees for improvements in pay or conditions of employment will be made or processed during the currency of the Agreement;
• Employers, trade unions and employees are committed to promoting industrial harmony; and
• Strikes or other forms of industrial action by trade unions, employees or employers are precluded in respect of any matters covered by this Agreement, where the employer or trade union concerned is acting in accordance with the provisions of this Agreement.

28. The implementation of this Agreement is subject to no currently unforeseen budgetary deterioration.

[disability student]

27. The parties agree that:
• no cost-increasing claims by trade unions or employees for improvements in pay or conditions of employment will be made or processed during the currency of the Agreement;
• Employers, trade unions and employees are committed to promoting industrial harmony; and
• Strikes or other forms of industrial action by trade unions, employees or employers are precluded in respect of any matters covered by this Agreement, where the employer or trade union concerned is acting in accordance with the provisions of this Agreement.

28. The implementation of this Agreement is subject to no currently unforeseen budgetary deterioration.


Much appreciated & thanks to u & Dcon

[Xray]

If you are unfortunate enough to work outside of 9-5 mon-fri in the health service you are guaranteed pay cuts by this -

(a) providing, across all settings, planned services over an extended (8 a.m. to 8 p.m.) day on a Monday to Friday basis and/or five over seven day basis, while also providing emergency services on a 24-hour 7-day basis, thereby reducing the staffing and other resources required at nights and weekends;

How this reduces the number of staff required is beyond me by the way.

[DCon]

27.

28. The implementation of this Agreement is subject to no currently unforeseen budgetary deterioration.


what is the level of foreseen budgetary deterioration I wonder?

[Xray]

Have you considered the impact of the previous PS cuts on those figures?

When PS pay is cut so is the amount of PAYE going back in on the revenue side. VAT, Excise etc will also be down as they have less to spend.

300,000 people spending less has down stream consequences as well, inevitably it will have cost jobs in vulnerable sectors like retail. That leads to another drop in revenue and so the downward spiral continues.

But sure who cares about any of that so long as the elite clerical officers and street sweepers are nailed?

Net PS pay is really only about 10-12 billion when you consider taxes etc. Whats more overtime is often paid at before the minimum wage on a net basis, it is cheaper to employ someone on a middle wages on overtime than take on someone else off the Dole. The way they are working out a lot of these figures are childishly over simple.

For example what is the current net monthly cost of wages now in the PS?
It is certainly not 1/12 of 20 billion. In some cases they are actually losing money by cutting some pay levels, it is extremely complex.

[Xray]

what is the level of foreseen budgetary deterioration I wonder?

Well we had an unforeseen drop in tax today, so that is justification for more PS cuts I would have thought. There is also provision for over 20,000 further job cuts from the PS in this agreement. Have you any idea what that means?

We are looking at the closure of several large hospitals, many Garda station, schools, universties etc, quangos are gone. We are looking at more pay cuts, we are looking at a skill flight from key areas of the health service.

People have no idea what we are looking at. We maybe at 25 billion in tax next year. We have a debt of 150 billion so it might eat up 6 or 7 billion yet in interest payments alone.That leaves 20 billion if lucky. That wont cover social welfare.

Then what?

We are in a real real bad place here.

Pay cuts in the PS are nothing, there wont be lights on in the hospitals at this rate.

[Xray]

(c) achieving ongoing reductions in the number of in-patient beds and increases in day case, outpatient and diagnostic capacity, in order to provide faster access to services at lower unit costs;


That's code for hospitals closures...

[C. Flower]

Well we had an unforeseen drop in tax today, so that is justification for more PS cuts I would have thought. There is also provision for over 20,000 further job cuts from the PS in this agreement. Have you any idea what that means?

We are looking at the closure of several large hospitals, many Garda station, schools, universties etc, quangos are gone. We are looking at more pay cuts, we are looking at a skill flight from key areas of the health service.

People have no idea what we are looking at. We maybe at 25 billion in tax next year. We have a debt of 150 billion so it might eat up 6 or 7 billion yet in interest payments alone.That leaves 20 billion if lucky. That wont cover social welfare.

Then what?

We are in a real real bad place here.

Pay cuts in the PS are nothing, there wont be lights on in the hospitals at this rate.

Yes, you are spelling it out very clearly. We have used resources appallingly badly and racked up costs that are now very hard to cut back except through carnage. Cutting arms and legs off to lose weight.

There are already thousands of people - the unemployed self employed, with no visible income.

[disability student]

I prefer to see the quangos eliminated firstly before everything else as they are a waste of taxpayer's money. Most of it are jobs for the FF boys really. :(

[C. Flower]

I prefer to see the quangos eliminated firstly before everything else as they are a waste of taxpayer's money. Most of it are jobs for the FF boys really. :(

We could do a lot better than we do € for €.

Could get rid of all those boards and have them work to one or tow senior civil servants.

[disability student]

I think i recall that all these quangos are worth something like €4Bn ..i'm not sure re figures.

Then get all the principal officers of every department do the quango's work as it certainly save money in the long run especially in the area of expenses and miscellaneous items.

[DCon]

Cutting arms and legs off to lose weight.


Sums up the FF plan.

But it appears to be just the arms and legs of the peasants. The FF elite and their cronies will retain all their limbs

[Xray]

We at some point will reach a tipping point where people that have "good" jobs in Ireland will decide to leave. Then we are truly screwed. People think they can set wage and tax levels in some sort of bubble. They cant, people came here for the jobs, they will leave too. Key staff are not being trained, key staff are not getting experience after college, they are not getting security. They will go.

This is a separate problem to people out of work in areas like construction and finance that are skilled but in a collapsed industry. This is about people with skills that mean they will not be unemployed, so if you under pay them/over tax them or don't give them the experience their desire a lot of them will walk. I think we are getting near that tipping point. I know a few people leaving already, walking away from jobs most would kill for.

People are also starting to think that even if wages and growth returned that they have no future here are you could not count on it lasting. You could not buy a house here.

[Xray]

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/graduate-salaries-plummet-to-a-dismal-euro400-a-week-2124158.html


lets get real here, this is not going to last

"one-in-five thirdlevel graduates began working on salaries of less than €405 a week, way below the average industrial wage of €625 a week.

And these graduates were the ones who were actually lucky enough to find work. "

Think someone else wont snap them up, think they will return?
This is what 75 billion costs, this is what acting the bollox when in office costs. This is real and happening now, and it will be irreversible. We still have echoes of people who left here over a century ago for similar reasons. We need to stop this happening.

[DCon]

It's ok Folks. The solicitor in charge of the economy says we will be grand.


MINISTER FOR Finance Brian Lenihan has insisted that his budget is still on target despite exchequer returns showing tax revenues running €266 million behind target for the first three months of this year.

The figures show that tax revenue at €7.24 billion for the first quarter was €1.27 billion less than the same period of 2009.

The effects of last December’s austere budget were reflected in the first quarter figures released yesterday.

The Minister said the budgetary decisions taken by the Government in recent months were having the intended impact on public finances and would aid the restoration of much-needed confidence in Ireland.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/frontpage/2010/0403/1224267631452.html

[DCon]

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/graduate-salaries-plummet-to-a-dismal-euro400-a-week-2124158.html


lets get real here, this is not going to last

And NAMA will make a profit in 10 years. :)




This means one-in-five thirdlevel graduates began working on salaries of less than €405 a week, way below the average industrial wage of €625 a week.

And these graduates were the ones who were actually lucky enough to find work.

The detailed study by the Higher Education Authority (HEA) on how the class of 2008 fared in the workplace last year reveals that the jobless rate among graduates has soared to 10pc.

[Xray]

We need to start thinking outside the box, if we cannot pay people give them free rent in empty houses, its not like we are short of them.

[greengoose]

We need to start thinking outside the box, if we cannot pay people give them free rent in empty houses, its not like we are short of them.

Free rent? Sorry but that's a non runner for me! Rental accommodation in lieu of some form of work is!

[C. Flower]

We need to start thinking outside the box, if we cannot pay people give them free rent in empty houses, its not like we are short of them.

I think that is an extremely good idea.

[Baron von Biffo]

Net PS pay is really only about 10-12 billion when you consider taxes etc. Whats more overtime is often paid at before the minimum wage on a net basis, it is cheaper to employ someone on a middle wages on overtime than take on someone else off the Dole. The way they are working out a lot of these figures are childishly over simple.

For example what is the current net monthly cost of wages now in the PS?
It is certainly not 1/12 of 20 billion. In some cases they are actually losing money by cutting some pay levels, it is extremely complex.

It is very complex and unfortunately we as citizens are wedded to the idea of simple solutions. We have ISME leading the clamour for cuts in SW and PS pay and then wondering why their members are going out of business. The link between their customers spending power and their own profits seems to have completely escaped their notice.

[Xray]

It is very complex and unfortunately we as citizens are wedded to the idea of simple solutions. We have ISME leading the clamour for cuts in SW and PS pay and then wondering why their members are going out of business. The link between their customers spending power and their own profits seems to have completely escaped their notice.

Don't worry ISME wont exist for long, they are going to implode as the consumer depression sets in for the long term, much as the unions are trying to implode now. Only the most idiotic of consumer dependent business people would campaign for a deflationary policy by a government going into a recession. It was repeatedly said and dismissed as nonsense. We have removed way way too much money from the current account spend in this country. Sure they could have taxed us hard and given it to the poor so they would spend it, but to simply turn off the taps and start slashing pay, pensions and SW was utter madness. I doubt this generation will ever be anything other than savers again.



I don't think many people actually realise how unusual a strategy that was to go for. It was economic history research papers of the future. They should have been shouting for the government to ramp up spending and screw the banks. We have a class of business person in this country that think they know something about economics and managing businesses because they made a living for the last 15 years while it was raining money. Clearly many of them had a grossly over inflated opinion of their own abilities. We have a similarly humbled set of bankers.

In their innocence some businesses are hoping the destruction of the PS will result in out sourcing opportunities, of course most of these services will simply cease to exist and people will not be able to afford them elsewhere.

[Xray]

Free rent? Sorry but that's a non runner for me! Rental accommodation in lieu of some form of work is!

Why is it a non runner?
I say if someone is on a low wage and have a degree or similar qualification within a certain age bracket give them a NAMA house for next to near nothing to live in. That way, the heating is on in the house, they hang about, we pay them no dole and the employer is protected from high wages costs. We have 20 somethings all over the country sitting in their mammy sitting room with a degree and hundreds of empty rotting houses across the road that we effectively own.

Think about it. OK it makes a fool out of those of us that bought, well tough ****, this is an emergency, we have people in distress. Put compulsory orders on them for five euros if need be. Just do something before the ship sinks, the clock has been ticking now for 2 years plus and we have done absolutely nothing except piss about a bit with FAS. Someone with a science degree wants a job and a life not a FAS course in websites or something. They are all out of here as soon as the world economy offers them a job.

Those NAMA house will be worth a lot more in ten years if they are full of young educated people with jobs than if they are hell holes. They might even buy them off us eventually. If that interferes with the constitutional property rights of a developers or bank, have a vote to change it. I will knock doors for that one.

[MM FF]

these are excellent numbers - Minister Lenihen has done a great job in the teeth of the most extreme internatonal economic conditions ever experienced