Central bank prediction on economic growth

[Theresa]

http://www.socialjustice.ie/content/central-bank-forecast-economic-growth-much-lower-government-announced-budget-2011

[Captain Con O'Sullivan]

I think once I saw the projected growth figures assumed in the budget I knew for sure that it was time to stop worrying about the IMF debt.

No way is the Irish economy big enough to handle the current agreement and there's nothing of a stimulus to look at so those figures were an 'I don't accept that' moment for me.

The question now is really whether the IMF lot take the needle down to the red line between ability to pay and default or whether we actually proceed to an orderly default. I've a suspicion that the IMF/ECB will try to surf us along that red line for Euro stability purposes but that means extended pain for a long time. In those circumstances it would be foolish for an Irish government to persist with it. Default is not the end of the world.

There had damn well better be a folder in the DoF somewhere with a Plan B on orderly default or that whole department should be fired en masse.

Guard dogs that can't bark are useless.

[morticia]

Captain, the IMF has come out and told us the bond holders should be burnt. They are believers in true capitalism (dodgy banks should fail), and there's also the minor matter that they want their money back.

'tis the EU and EFSF we are going to have trouble with. Might I suggest a PARTICULARLY smarmy visit to Washington on Paddy's day by our newly minted Taoiseach, whoever that may be??

[morticia]

Oh, and there's a VERY simple equation the central bank should be using for its projections.

Oil price UP = Economic growth DOWN.

This will affect everyone, not just us. Chaos awaits if the price goes much higher

[TotalMayhem]

Oil price UP = Economic growth DOWN.

Euro UP = European exports down.
Inflation UP* = Central Bank interest rate UP**

* not talking about Ireland, but have a look at Germany (which is a wee bit more important for the European economy than Ireland).

** if the interest rate goes up then we're finished.

[Theresa]

Nice point Morticia - there is only economic growth with energy consumption - unless we replace all those oil fueled hours with manual labour that is and that would take some revolution!

I doubt the government have a plan b. I know they have some security, crisis plans alright but if saving the dail and president counts as most important then they really didn't think it through.

There are many plan b's going around though and I must say anyone coming to the fore doesn't seem to have too much reality of implementation. They have ideas but visioning them play out is another thing.

I posted the new economics foundation (NEF) transition plan yesterday and I know social justice ireland are keen on it. It is a designed down scaling and I feel that is what is needed. It is what is going to happen anyway as oil prices put us out of economic growth as it stands. I agree the EU/IMF will probably keep us coasting for perhaps another year - if we're lucky! Enough time to spend what euro we have left to invest in energy and food security - which at the end of the day is really all we need, food and warmth.

Now who in DoF would agree???

[C. Flower]

Agree Theresa - the sad death in Ballymun, as well as a tragedy in its own right, is a warning of how severe the effects of "fuel poverty" can be - we need to ensure that people have the basics.

It seems mad to me that people are in uninsulated old Ballymun flats when there are new flats built to the much higher standards of recent years standing empty.

[TotalMayhem]

Agree Theresa - the sad death in Ballymun, as well as a tragedy in its own right, is a warning of how severe the effects of "fuel poverty" can be - we need to ensure that people have the basics.

It seems mad to me that people are in uninsulated old Ballymun flats when there are new flats built to the much higher standards of recent years standing empty.

The owners of the new flats of higher standards may not be particularly interested in tennants who can't pay for fuel. Chances are that they won't see their rent money either.