GE 2011: Tipperary North (3 Seats)

[TotalMayhem]

http://imgur.com/0ysDp.png

[Spectabilis]

Thanks for all the maps TM.

Tipperary North seems to have only 5 candidates for those three seats:

Michael Lowry; Independent, Sitting ‘guaranteed re-election’ according to the Midland Tribune
Noel Coonan ; FG, sitting Sole selected candidate
Maire Hoctor; FF, sitting
Alan Kelly : MEP, Labour
Cllr Seamie Morris, Sinn Féin

Likely outcome? I'd say Lowry to top the poll again with a reduced vote ; then Alan Kelly of Labour. Hoctor and Coonan for the third seat with Coonan likely to take it. Sinn Féin doesn't have the organisation in the constituency to compete with the machines of Lowry or the other parties.So one Labour, one Fine Gael, one Inependent, and for the first time ever no FF.

There is a detailed profile of the constituency http://www.oireachtas.ie/documents/library/constituencies_profiles/Tipperary_North.pdf

[Spectabilis]

Four more candidates in North Tipperary:
Olwyn O' Malley Greens
Donal O Regan Independent
Billy Clancy New Vision/Independent
Kate Bopp Independent

http://tipptatler.ie/?p=2545

See Artnenagh's post here today http://www.politics.ie/tipperary/138952-tipperary-north-19.html#post3509190 for details of public meeting Thursday 10th at 8 pm in the Town Hall Nenagh to meet the candidates.

[Spectabilis]

Likely outcome? I'd say Lowry to top the poll again with a reduced vote; then Alan Kelly of Labour. Hoctor and Coonan for the third seat with Coonan likely to take it. Sinn Féin doesn't have the organisation in the constituency to compete with the machines of Lowry or the other parties. So one Labour, one Fine Gael, one Independent, and for the first time ever no FF.


The tally at the Nenagh count reported as follows with 50% of the boxes opened:
Estimated turnout:
%
Fianna Fáil: (Hoctor) 17.2
Fine Gael: (Coonan) 24.4
Labour: (Kelly) 18.9
Green: (O’ Malley)
Independents: (O’Regan, Clancy, Bopp)
Lowry (Independent): 28.7
Sinn Fein: (Morris)

[Spectabilis]

Update in rank order, with 82% of boxes open:

Independents: (Lowry, O’Regan, Clancy, Bopp) 33%
Fine Gael: (Coonan) 24.0%
Labour: (Kelly) 20%
Fianna Fáil: (Hoctor) 16%
Sinn Fein: (Morris) 6.0%
Green: (O’ Malley) 1.0%

[ang]

Latest:-

RT @cian_mccormack: #ge11 #tn Tallys of 2nd prefs in Nth Tipp show Lowry’s tallied surplus will distribute: 34%FG; 27% Lab; 21% FF. 1st count due 5:30pm

[Fraxinus]

Gombeen a haon elected.

[Spectabilis]

Indeed. As predicted, unfortunately.

[Spectabilis]

Details here of the first count results at last:

http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011&cons=218

Lowry got 14,104 votes, more than in 2007. Elected on the first count, but I thought his vote would be down on 2007 when it was 12,919. He has an increased % of the vote too.

[Spectabilis]

All done and dusted in Tipperary North.

Third and final count here

http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=2011&cons=218

Lowry Independent
Coonan Fine Gael
And Kelly Labou

The result I predicted a month ago, though Lowry increased his vote and Coonan came in before Kelly.