General Election 2011: Dublin Central Constituency (4 Seats)

[TotalMayhem]

http://imgur.com/9U0D8.png

Joe Costello LAB
joe.costello@oireachtas.ie
website:
http://joecostellotd.blogspot.com/

Paschal Donohoe FG
paschal.donohoe@oireachtas.ie
website:
http://www.paschaldonohoe.finegael.ie

Mary Lou McDonald SF
marylou.mcdonald@oireachtas.ie
website:
http://www.marylou2win.com/

Maureen O'Sullivan IND
maureen.osullivan@oireachtas.ie
website:
http://www.maureenosullivan.ie/

[TotalMayhem]

GE 2007 Results:

http://imgur.com/RVsyv.png

[Joe]

For my money, Costello and Donohue are certainties. The last two seats are between Fitzpatrick, O'Sullivan, MacDonald and Clancy. I'd say Fitzpatrick and O'Sullivan will take them.
Where will Ahern's 12000 votes go though? Ahern's machine has swung fully behind Brady and Brady has done the clientelist work for the last few years. He may yet give Fitzpatrick a run to be the last FFer standing.
Will the "Gregory candidate" moniker work for O'Sullivan this time? Has she done the local work? Will her flip flopping approach to supporting the government cost her votes? Someone like Clancy might take some of the guilty conscience liberal vote off her.

[C. Flower]

For my money, Costello and Donohue are certainties. The last two seats are between Fitzpatrick, O'Sullivan, MacDonald and Clancy. I'd say Fitzpatrick and O'Sullivan will take them.
Where will Ahern's 12000 votes go though? Ahern's machine has swung fully behind Brady and Brady has done the clientelist work for the last few years. He may yet give Fitzpatrick a run to be the last FFer standing.
Will the "Gregory candidate" moniker work for O'Sullivan this time? Has she done the local work? Will her flip flopping approach to supporting the government cost her votes? Someone like Clancy might take some of the guilty conscience liberal vote off her.

Interesting : welcome, Joe. O'Sullivan "comes over well" - I don't know her track record on the ground. What's her track record in supporting the government. There was a long discussion here on a thread about Gregory about the pros and cons of community Independents as representatives.

[LeftAtTheCross]

Workers' Party candidate in Dublin Central is Malachy Steenson (http://irishelectionliterature.wordpress.com/2011/01/31/leaflet-for-malachy-steenson-workers-party-2011-ge-dublin-central/).

[Joe]

Interesting : welcome, Joe. O'Sullivan "comes over well" - I don't know her track record on the ground. What's her track record in supporting the government. There was a long discussion here on a thread about Gregory about the pros and cons of community Independents as representatives.

I live in a posh end of the constituency where O'Sullivan doesn't operate. I presume she and the Gregory machine have done the on the ground work in the traditional Gregory areas. Her track record in supporting the government was that she sometimes supported it in important votes, as I understand it in the hope of getting local concessions out of them - I may be wrong there as to her motivation. That won't hurt her much but the soft, liberal vote which Gregory and she always got in the posher areas is susceptible to drift, in my opinion. She will be helped by transfers from the Cabra community leftish candidate, Perry. His vote should increase. His transfers could also go to McDonald and the Labour candidates.

[ang]

Donohue FG and Costello Lab take first two seats.

[ang]

Looks like Bertie's letter stunt supporting Cyprian have backfired:-


100% tally done. Donohue. Costello. MacDonald. O'Sullivan/Fitzpatrick. First count about 3pm #dubc#GE11

[Ah Well]

Looks like Bertie's letter stunt supporting Cyprian have backfired:-

Where's Ahern holed up today I wonder ...

[PaddyJoe]

Cyprian Brady of FF goes from 900 and something votes in 2007 to 1600 this time.
Parse that:D
Maybe it was our 'annoymous TDs' thread that swung it.

[Frankie Lee]

Mary Lou could hardly miss out again could she.

[ang]

Mary Lou could hardly miss out again could she.

Paschal Donohoe FG & Joe Costello LAB have been elected.

Looks like Mary Lou and Maureen O'Sullivan for the other two seats.

[ang]

Maureen O'Sullivan Elected.

It'sbetween Mary Lou SF and Mary Fitzpatrick FF for the last seat.

[ang]

Paschal Donohoe FG
Joe Costello LAB
Maureen O'Sullivan Independent
Mary Lou McDonald SF

All Elected to 31st Dail