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View Full Version : Election Prospects for a "Fourth Bloc" of the Left



C. Flower
13-12-2010, 11:45 PM
http://cedarlounge.wordpress.com/2010/12/14/the-forth-bloc/

Electionlit posted over on the Cedar Lounge Revolution on Noel Whelan's article on the prospects for a Left Bloc, in a General Election.



Noel Whelan did an analysis of ‘The Fourth Bloc’ (http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/1211/1224285302136.html) (Sinn Fein and Left Wing Independents) in Saturdays Irish Times.
The article focused almost totally on Sinn Fein with a brief mention at the end of…

Finian McGrath, who signed up to the new group yesterday, also polled more than half a quota in 2007 in Dublin North Central and he looks set for re-election perhaps even if Labour also secures a seat in his constituency. Three others are former TDs who look set for a Dáil return: Joe Higgins polled 0.6 of a quota in a three-seat Dublin West in 2007 and is well placed to win a seat in what is now a four-seater while both Catherine Murphy in Kildare North and Seamus Healy in Tipperary South polled 0.6 of a quota and look strong for 2011.
The other fourth-bloc candidate who came relatively close in 2007 was Richard Boyd Barrett with half a quota in the five-seat Dún Laoghaire constituency. It is now a four-seater but he will still be a contender.
Although he mentions Maureen O’Sullivan in relation to the new technical group in the Dáil he failed to mention her as a prospect in the forthcoming Election.

Not only did he omit to mention O’Sullivan he failed to mention the ULA (or indeed Socialist Party, PBP or WUAG by name).Clare Daly or Joan Collins don’t merit a mention either.
No mention either of an outside chance for a seat of Mick Barry.

One would have thought that the Carlow-Kilkenny candidacy of Conor MacLiam of the ULA (Husband of the Late Suzy Long) would be one of interest to readers. Such is the flux in the nation at the minute is that he must surely have a chance of polling well.

Not a peep either at the impact Sinn Fein surge may have on ‘the Left’. The fact that where Higgins, Daly, Healy and Boyd-Barrett are strong Sinn Fein are weak. There are no Sinn Fein councillors on Fingal County Council and its more than likely that Sinn Fein will Transfer well to the ULA-Socialist Party candidates.

Labour will be the big challenge to Boyd Barrett and Healy, but any Sinn Fein transfers that are there are more likely to go to Boyd-Barret and Healys way.

For a while Aengus O Snodaigh looked vulnerable to both Labour and Joan Collins. If the Sinn Fein vote stays where the polls are now, O Snodaigh is safe and may even have a surplus. Even still Joan Collins must have a decent enough chance.



Dublin has been steadily shifting left over the last couple of decades. The Left candidates may do well in getting elected. The next question then will be how will they use the campaign and any future elected positions?

antiestablishmentarian
14-12-2010, 10:56 AM
Interesting times ahead. This election will show how things are moving along and will give a reasonable idea of where the left is strong and areas where they can possibly expand in the future. I still don't think that this election will have any other outcome than an FG/Lab coalition (yes pressure not to should be put on Lab but they have more in common with FG than they do with other left organisation), so the results will be interesting this time out, but it's at the next election that we'll see how things really are: SF, the ULA and FF will be in opposition, and if you think people will flock back to FF given everything that has happened, then you're delusional. The fight for leadership of the opposition will be between the ULA and SF, but whatever happens it will be interesting to see how it pans out following the GE.