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View Full Version : The Gilmore Gale: A national phenomenon!



Andrew49
03-10-2010, 09:00 AM
The political careers of a number of high-profile Fine Gael TDs are in serious jeopardy after the surge in support for the Labour Party, as revealed by an unpublished nationwide opinion poll. The surge to Labour is not just an urban myth. The polling data reveal that the political phenomenon known as the 'Gilmore gale' is evolving into a national phenomenon. Dr James Reilly, the deputy leader of the party, Leo Varadkar, Brian Hayes and Lucinda Creighton, are seriously threatened by Labour.

The figures most widely tipped to succeed Enda Kenny are now in trouble.

The latest data suggest that Labour has now secured the support of more than 50 per cent of the electorate in many Dublin constituencies and has genuine aspirations to win three seats in a number of five-seat constituencies. Labour, it is believed, are now poised to make serious gains in Wicklow, Carlow Kilkenny, Wexford, Waterford and a number of Munster constituencies. Although Fianna Fail is in danger of losing up to 30 seats, the Labour surge is poised to inflict terminal damage upon their putative coalition partners,Fine Gael, which is in real peril of suffering a similar bloodbath to that of 2002. Source (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/fg-stars-face-fight-to-hold-on-to-seats-after-latest-poll-2362739.html)

I remember a similar kind of poll was reported on in the UK years ago - showing a surge in support for Labour. The poll had the effect of sweeping Thatcher into power.

There are lies, damned lies and Indo statistics.

C. Flower
03-10-2010, 12:13 PM
I agree that is very misleading. In an election, having a machine on the ground is everything.
Even Independents are only successful when they are part of strong local community networks.

Ah Well
03-10-2010, 12:18 PM
I agree that is very misleading. In an election, having a machine on the ground is everything.
Even Independents are only successful when they are part of strong local community networks.

There are plenty Constituencies where FF/FG tribalism is alive and well, where no one else has/will get a look in and where a change of the old guard is all that will happen next Election, particularly rural ones. Cork NW and Cork SW instantly spring to mind

C. Flower
03-10-2010, 12:22 PM
There are plenty Constituencies where FF/FG tribalism is alive and well, where no one else has/will get a look in and where a change of the old guard is all that will happen next Election, particularly rural ones. Cork NW and Cork SW instantly spring to mind

The best chance of change would be if candidates from the local community organisations stood. A lot of people in rural areas don't want to vote FF/FG and are not getting any alternative.

Labour had a National meeting in Kilkennny yesterday. It would be interesting to get some feedback from it.

60 candidates are not enough. Its a failure to lead. If they called for good community and trade union activist candidates they would get some with ready made support bases.

Ah Well
03-10-2010, 12:25 PM
The best chance of change would be if candidates from the local community organisations stood. A lot of people in rural areas don't want to vote FF/FG and are not getting any alternative

I can't see it happening - would certainly like to see some considerable change to that extent - but would not be hopeful of it occurring.

C. Flower
03-10-2010, 12:28 PM
I can't see it happening - would certainly like to see some considerable change to that extent - but would not be hopeful of it occurring.

I agree with you, but I think the electorate who support Labour should put pressure on them to stand candidates in the maximum feasible number of constituencies.

They also should be starting to collect funds.

Ah Well
03-10-2010, 12:33 PM
I agree with you, but I think the electorate who support Labour should put pressure on them to stand candidates in the maximum feasible number of constituencies.

They also should be starting to collect funds.

At the end of the day it probably boils down to one considerable factor - people are shouting and crying out for change but they are not prepared to be a part of the mechanism that might bring that about by either putting themselves forward or actively getting involved and doing the work to enable that to occur

If a credible alternative to FF/FG did run Candidates all over the place it would actually show to some extent how much are the Irish all mouth and no action in so far as they actually got involved to support it and to vote for it

I see this alleged Ganley resurrection going on ... I assume that's an attempt to some extent to hop into the void where people feel they have no choice at present

Baron von Biffo
03-10-2010, 12:59 PM
I agree that is very misleading. In an election, having a machine on the ground is everything.
Even Independents are only successful when they are part of strong local community networks.

If there's a Gilmore Gale then organisation wont be as important as in normal times. The Spring Tide washed in Gallagher and Bhamjee despite there being no Lab organisation in Laois/Offaly or Clare. The lack of a party machine cost them re-election though.

Mick Tully
03-10-2010, 01:14 PM
Gilmore Gale more a light breeze after Saturday's performance when he didn't know where his TD's were.

C. Flower
03-10-2010, 01:24 PM
Gilmore Gale more a light breeze after Saturday's performance when he didn't know where his TD's were.

:):):):)

Cato
03-10-2010, 01:46 PM
I agree with you, but I think the electorate who support Labour should put pressure on them to stand candidates in the maximum feasible number of constituencies.

They also should be starting to collect funds.

They have started a drive to collect funds;


Dear ****,

Last night, the results of a TV3/Millward Brown poll were announced, with Labour as the largest party in the country on 35%. Thanks to you we are closer now than ever before to building a Labour-led Government.

The poll has shown that Eamon Gilmore remains the most popular political leader in the country - more popular than Brian Cowen and Enda Kenny combined.

But we are still up against opponents with big money backing - and to make our efforts pay off in the run up to the General Election, we need your help.

Will you donate €10 per month, or whatever you can afford, to help us reach the landmark of 1,000 small donors in this campaign?

We are not daunted by the challenge before us. For the first time ever, we have the opportunity to put an end to civil-war politics in Ireland. A nd we can do it. Together we can reshape the Irish political map.

Labour's message of building a better future for everybody in this country is clearly resonating with voters but we're fighting parties with far more resources and funds than we enjoy.

Donate now to help us win this fight.

I know we are living in troubled times but I'm asking every member and supporter who can afford it to sign up to donate €10 a month to our Election Fund. This money will only be used to fight the General Election and win seats for Labour in the upcoming campaign.

Please click on the link below to sign up and help build a Labour led government;

http://www.labour.ie/donate/form/10/?i=1207256617292085

Thank you so much for your s upport,

Ita McAuliffe
General Secretary

This arrived a few days ago;


Dear Friend,

On Friday, we emailed you to thank you for your support, and to ask you to contribute to our campaign to help us build towards a Labour-led Government. Together, we can make a real difference.

We've been overwhelmed by the staggering response - in just a couple of days, we've raised well over €10,000.

This morning saw the publication of another poll which shows how the Labour message is resounding across the country. The Ipsos/MRBI poll for the Irish Times puts Labour on 33% of the vote, with both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael stuck on 24%. Together, we really are changing the shape of this country.

Please take a moment to help us reach our target of 1,000 small donors contributing to this campaign.

As Director of Elections I am determined to secure a record num ber of seats for the Party at the general election. I am committed to this task because I know of the real difference that a Labour-led government can make to all our lives. Conservative, civil-war politics has failed this country - together, in the coming months, we can chart a new political course for Ireland.

We are now in the run-up to the next General Election. We will have to do more work than ever before. Every penny raised from this fundraising will go towards leaflets, events, member recruitment and online campaigning. And our fundraising will have to be backed up with enormous amounts of on-the-ground effort.

But it will be worth it. We can build a Labour-led Government.

Thank you so much - we couldn't do it without you.

Ruairi

PS - if you haven't had a chance to donate, but would like to contribute to our fundraising efforts, you can do so at the following link:
http://www.labour.ie/donate/form/10/?i=126946262219964100

Mick Tully
03-10-2010, 01:49 PM
They have started a drive to collect funds;



This arrived a few days ago;

The banks used to be a good source for the Sticky's. :rolleyes:

Griska
03-10-2010, 08:59 PM
The banks used to be a good source for the Sticky's. :rolleyes:

Good God man. Do you want to scare Gilmore and Rabbitte away? Again?:)

Mick Tully
03-10-2010, 09:56 PM
Good God man. Do you want to scare Gilmore and Rabbitte away? Again?:)

They used to have the way to raise funds but now they are labour how life in this country can cleanse the grime to get to the top. :cool:

RahenyFG
30-11-2010, 11:54 AM
After the Donegal South West by-election and McBreaty's worse than expected performance in finishing fifth behind an Independent, the Gilmore Gale seems more like Gilmore Indegestion to me:p

Sidewinder
30-11-2010, 12:06 PM
The "Gilmore Gale" I think primarily only existed in the fevered minds of the meeja.

Disgruntled ex-FF voters naturally went to Labour for a while - after all the two parties have exactly the same economic and political philosophy, and Labour aren't the hated Blueshirts - but this was more of a temporary halting site as they worked through their confusion, denial and grief over what "De Party" had done and become.

The arrival of the IMF slapped a lot of people out of denial and naval-gazing. That 25% or so of the electorate are now actively looking for a home rather than a temporary refuge. Personally I wouldn't vote Labour in a fit - just FF-Lite pork merchants raiding the cookie jar to feed their mates, with the added bonus of a nasty Cruiserite Partitionist streak.

Baron von Biffo
30-11-2010, 01:03 PM
After the Donegal South West by-election and McBreaty's worse than expected performance in finishing fifth behind an Independent, the Gilmore Gale seems more like Gilmore Indegestion to me:p

The Donegal result was definitely humiliating for Lab but it doesn't say too much about the gale. Donegal is not fertile Lab ground and their candidate was atrocious so they probably got as much as they could out of it.

You might be more worried about FG dropping vote here and coming in behind FF on No.1s in the worst week for an Irish government since the civil war. If FG is leaking votes west of the Shannon they're rightly screwed in Dublin where Kenny's SuperCulchie image is already a massive liability.

C. Flower
30-11-2010, 02:06 PM
The Donegal result was definitely humiliating for Lab but it doesn't say too much about the gale. Donegal is not fertile Lab ground and their candidate was atrocious so they probably got as much as they could out of it.

You might be more worried about FG dropping vote here and coming in behind FF on No.1s in the worst week for an Irish government since the civil war. If FG is leaking votes west of the Shannon they're rightly screwed in Dublin where Kenny's SuperCulchie image is already a massive liability.

Yes, FG was given a big message there. Labour too. A lot of people may live to regret the fact that a GE wasn't called much earlier.

disability student
30-11-2010, 02:34 PM
Labour don't have the organisational structure outside of Dublin as FF have had both in Dublin and rural. What i mean was the electioneering machine of selecting the right candiates and manpower to get the votes. Lab don't have that as much as FG has. FF came out at top in the past due to their organisation/networks all over Ireland.

I suspect that Lab is very poor in rural areas and strong in urban areas.

Liberty
30-11-2010, 03:20 PM
It makes no difference at all since Labour is yet another establishment party. FF/Greens and now Fine Gael / Labour = two sides of the same coin.

RahenyFG
30-11-2010, 04:15 PM
The Donegal result was definitely humiliating for Lab but it doesn't say too much about the gale. Donegal is not fertile Lab ground and their candidate was atrocious so they probably got as much as they could out of it.

You might be more worried about FG dropping vote here and coming in behind FF on No.1s in the worst week for an Irish government since the civil war. If FG is leaking votes west of the Shannon they're rightly screwed in Dublin where Kenny's SuperCulchie image is already a massive liability.

Once again Baron, FG's vote share in Donegal South West was marginally the same as 07.
FG dropping votes nationwide or in Dublin is neither here nor there until the full results of the forthcoming election are known
You could say that about the prospects of a Gilmore Gale but surely Labour, the 'angry voice of the people party' who are gaining the most in the fall of support in Fianna Fail, should have won that by-election in Donegal South West.

Baron von Biffo
30-11-2010, 07:53 PM
Once again Baron, FG's vote share in Donegal South West was marginally the same as 07.
FG dropping votes nationwide or in Dublin is neither here nor there until the full results of the forthcoming election are known

Political discussion sites would die in an instant if we were limited to commenting on the outcome of elections rather than speculating in advance.

I'm not trying to say that FG should have won Donegal. There was never a hope of that - Doherty had the wind behind him from the off and all that was at issue was how big his win would be. The point is that they had a lot going for them in this election and they still flopped.

The week the by-election was held -


The entire cabinet was caught lying
The IMF was called in.
The harshest austerity programme in our history was unveiled.


All of that should have boosted the FG vote, as should the fact that it's a rural, conservative, Western constituency - the sort of constituency where Kenny is less of a liability. To lose vote share in that context, even if as you say the drop was relatively small, ought to be frightening the sh1te out of FG strategists. If they can't stop the rot then there's a very real chance of a repeat of 92 and FG losing seats.


You could say that about the prospects of a Gilmore Gale but surely Labour, the 'angry voice of the people party' who are gaining the most in the fall of support in Fianna Fail, should have won that by-election in Donegal South West.

Lab hacks might be able to convince themselves that they can run anyone in any constituency and get them elected because of the Gilmore Gale but here on Earth we know that's tosh. Lab will always struggle in rural, conservative constituencies and the further west you go the harder that struggle will be. McBrearty was a brutal candidate. It's probably more surprising that he increased their vote a bit than that he came last.

RahenyFG
30-11-2010, 08:12 PM
Political discussion sites would die in an instant if we were limited to commenting on the outcome of elections rather than speculating in advance.

I'm not trying to say that FG should have won Donegal. There was never a hope of that - Doherty had the wind behind him from the off and all that was at issue was how big his win would be. The point is that they had a lot going for them in this election and they still flopped.

The week the by-election was held -


The entire cabinet was caught lying
The IMF was called in.
The harshest austerity programme in our history was unveiled.


All of that should have boosted the FG vote, as should the fact that it's a rural, conservative, Western constituency - the sort of constituency where Kenny is less of a liability. To lose vote share in that context, even if as you say the drop was relatively small, ought to be frightening the sh1te out of FG strategists. If they can't stop the rot then there's a very real chance of a repeat of 92 and FG losing seats.


I think on that thread on politics.ie, there was too much focus on Fine Gael's shortcoming than there was on Fianna Fail's shortcoming. I don't mean to sidetrack here but the FF vote dropped by about 30 per cent. FG's vote dropped by around 4 per cent, a meagre amount compared to FF's drop. As you say, it was written on the wall Doherty would win that as soon as he won the court case. Had he been in FG or if FG had that done, then FG would have won the by-election.

Perhaps a repeat of 92 is on the cards. Next election is guaranteed to be the most unpredictable election.

C. Flower
30-11-2010, 08:42 PM
I think on that thread on politics.ie, there was too much focus on Fine Gael's shortcoming than there was on Fianna Fail's shortcoming. I don't mean to sidetrack here but the FF vote dropped by about 30 per cent. FG's vote dropped by around 4 per cent, a meagre amount compared to FF's drop. As you say, it was written on the wall Doherty would win that as soon as he won the court case. Had he been in FG or if FG had that done, then FG would have won the by-election.

Perhaps a repeat of 92 is on the cards. Next election is guaranteed to be the most unpredictable election.


Did FG consider taking a case?

Baron von Biffo
30-11-2010, 08:51 PM
I think on that thread on politics.ie, there was too much focus on Fine Gael's shortcoming than there was on Fianna Fail's shortcoming. I don't mean to sidetrack here but the FF vote dropped by about 30 per cent. FG's vote dropped by around 4 per cent, a meagre amount compared to FF's drop. As you say, it was written on the wall Doherty would win that as soon as he won the court case. Had he been in FG or if FG had that done, then FG would have won the by-election.

Perhaps a repeat of 92 is on the cards. Next election is guaranteed to be the most unpredictable election.

FF was expected to do very badly. Governments don't do well in by-elections and this government was lined up for a bigger kicking than ever before. If anything FF might console themselves that in spite of everything they came second on No.1s.

RahenyFG
30-11-2010, 10:57 PM
Did FG consider taking a case?

Not being well in on the party, I wouldn't know. As soon as SF were successful, FG appealed Dublin South East and Waterford. FG always seem a step behind.