MRBI Poll puts Labour in the Lead

[BrendanGalway]

Has their time come?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0929/breaking75.html

Labour on 33%, a clear lead.

Both FF and FG on 24! No Difference, what do ya know! :D

Just 13% happy with the Government. Mandate to Rule?

[disability student]

Has their time come?

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0929/breaking75.html

Labour on 33%, a clear lead.

Both FF and FG on 24! No Difference, what do ya know! :D

Just 13% happy with the Government. Mandate to Rule?

Perhaps it could end Enda Kenny's FG leadership as it's time for the FG party to rediscover their renewal by a new leadership contest. FF must be laughing at FG re both now on equal foooting.:D

[Griska]

Labour in the lead. No wait, they're third. Hang on, they're in the lead again.

How do Red Sea do they're polls?

[ang]

This is a great poll for Labour and maybe their time has come.

An awful poll for FG, at a time when the Country is in such need of strong leadership and a government in power, that is so widely despised, yet the supposed main opposition party are unable to inspire the people of the nation.

Our politicians have failed us desperately.

[Griska]

Bizarre. We'll have another Taoiseach with no mandate after the election. Kenny will be unpopular from day one. Unless, of course they move against him again.

[Newsy]

To think that the 'main' opposition party is equal, in this poll, to the main gov. party who have trashed this economy........screams that something is terribly wrong with fg, their policies, their communication style, their leadership style......or the country!!!!

fg HAVE to do something.......they truly do. This result is dire........if they wait for another poll, who knows ff may be ahead of them......!!!!!

[Baron von Biffo]

Bizarre. We'll have another Taoiseach with no mandate after the election. Kenny will be unpopular from day one. Unless, of course they move against him again.

If the numbers keep going this way ther isn't a hope in hell of Kenny being Taoiseach.

FF rising and FG falling! The first item on the news should have been his resignation.

[C. Flower]

I would be very interested in seeing a realistic projection of seats.

[Cassandra Syndrome]

1. Labour need to run around the constitutencies and ensure that this result can be replicated nationally.

2. What does Labour / Sinn Fein add up to in real election numbers? 41% sounds good. Whats that in Dail numbers

[Binn Beal]

The increase for FF is the predicted (by me at least on this forum) backlash against the personal smear campaign on Cowan. As has happened so often in the past, when you call a politician a drunkard, a chancer, a terrible man, a bit of a tearaway you increase his standing with the Irish electorate.
Lets's get rid of this rotten government because it is
a rotten government and not because the Taoiseach stayed up late one night and wasn't as articulate as some OR-T-E presenter would have liked.

[Griska]

In order for Labour to come out of the next election as the largest party in the Dail, they would need to have a ridiculously high seats per candidates run ratio.

If they run 65 candidates, they won't get 60 seats. If they increase the number of candidates, they'll be running people who are no more than after-thoughts.

FG will be the largest party, and they don't seem to be gearing up for internal fisticuffs anytime soon.

[Binn Beal]

That's a good point. I live in a rural FF/FG constituency and not a Labour candidate in sight. I checked their website and found four counsellors, none of whom I had ever heard of and, according to their profiles, none of whom had anything to say.
Fine Gael will probably end up as the biggest party in the Dail, even if Labour goes to 90% in the public opinion polls.

[antiestablishmentarian]

It seems a coalescing of FF and FG could be on the cards if things keep going this way: I acknowledge what posters say about Labour and their lack of candidates, coming as I do from a rural FF constituency, but during the Spring Tide alot of non-entities were elected solely because they were Labour and that's what people supported at the time- such a trend I think could be even more pronounced in the current climate.

[Apjp]

1. Labour need to run around the constitutencies and ensure that this result can be replicated nationally.

2. What does Labour / Sinn Fein add up to in real election numbers? 41% sounds good. Whats that in Dail numbers

Not enough. I predict FF and FG will be in government together come 2012. Dick Roche is cosying up to varadkar. gave him a big cuddle on the week in politics last sunday. It will the ultimate irony-the two old civil war parties reuniting to postpone the day crony capitalism is not the defining feature of irish life. I would say they would then easily last five years, like the present government will, before both parties are wiped out in 2017. The ultimate question is, not will crony capitalism and nepotism finally end when a democratic socialist government eventually comes to power-obviously Labour and Sinn Fein at present-but how costly will the neo liberal capitalists make the funeral?

[C. Flower]

In order for Labour to come out of the next election as the largest party in the Dail, they would need to have a ridiculously high seats per candidates run ratio.

If they run 65 candidates, they won't get 60 seats. If they increase the number of candidates, they'll be running people who are no more than after-thoughts.

FG will be the largest party, and they don't seem to be gearing up for internal fisticuffs anytime soon.

In an emergency, people will have to step up. The Left Parties and community groups should be getting ready to stand wherever they have the resources.

[Griska]

Labour won't touch Sinn Fein. I'll put my house on it.

[C. Flower]

Labour won't touch Sinn Fein. I'll put my house on it.


I think you're right. FF would, of course.

[Apjp]

That's a good point. I live in a rural FF/FG constituency and not a Labour candidate in sight. I checked their website and found four counsellors, none of whom I had ever heard of and, according to their profiles, none of whom had anything to say.
Fine Gael will probably end up as the biggest party in the Dail, even if Labour goes to 90% in the public opinion polls.

same problem in east meath. Now that Fianna Fail are joining us with south louth-which is stupid-our concerns in the rural sector of this consituency will be over looked by drogheda's concerns. Also, I see very few Labour candidates. I know Labour spokesperson for transport, Senator Dominic Hannigan will run, but who else will with him? They need two a constituency at least. And I don't want drogheda counsellors and senators calling to my door every five years saying they give a ***** about east meath. The reality is I will probably vote hannigan because he has helped improve rural public transport(or tried to where he could not), and he wants to connect dublin bus in balbriggan with east meath, as well as highlighting our lack of VEC places, and local concerns such as the quality of our roads. he has not been perfect by any means, but I would rather him than that arroagant fecker thomas byrne, and houses mcantee. On the other hand, the socialist party could take this as an opportunity to strenghten their links with east meath by actually running candidates. I know they have a counsellor in drogheda, maybe he could run for the dail, with a partner?

[antiestablishmentarian]

In an emergency, people will have to step up. The Left Parties and community groups should be getting ready to stand wherever they have the resources.

The problem is trying to hammer out a common programme on which to run joint candidates. That failed last time out and it would be a setback if some form of joint slate were not to be formed.

[C. Flower]

People should prepare to stand as Independent, anti-bank theft, where there is no viable candidate.

[Griska]

People should prepare to stand as Independent, anti-bank theft, where there is no viable candidate.

Sadly, candidates like this sink almost without fail unless they have a reputation, usuall for community work.

It's easy to think people will be more worked up than usual, but the fact is, most working class areas return extremely low turn outs. The left will need the middle class.

[Binn Beal]

The problem with one-issue candidates has always been the same. When the dust settles are they FF or FG?

Would celebrity candidates help Labour?
Does there constitution allow for dropping say Fintan O'Toole into Clare where he has a house?

[Griska]

The problem with one-issue candidates has always been the same. When the dust settles are they FF or FG?

Would celebrity candidates help Labour?
Does there constitution allow for dropping say Fintan O'Toole into Clare where he has a house?

A candidate can run wherever s/he wishes.

[Binn Beal]

Sorry. I am talking of the Labour Party constitution.

I seem to recall a lot of trouble when Dick Spring tried to place Orla Guerin in a constituency.

[Griska]

Ah.

[C. Flower]

The problem with one-issue candidates has always been the same. When the dust settles are they FF or FG?

Would celebrity candidates help Labour?
Does there constitution allow for dropping say Fintan O'Toole into Clare where he has a house?

What we need is some steady, non-elite people prepared to take on a lot of trouble.

Parachuted candidates can take over the party - look at Tony Blair.

[C. Flower]

IrishReforms.ie has done some work on the figures in Constituency terms.

http://politicalreform.ie/


Adrian Kavanagh, 29 September 2010

Irish Times Ipsos-MRBI opinion poll September 30:

FF 24 (+3).

FG 24 (-3),

Lab 33 (+4),

Greens 2 (-2),

SF 8 (-2),

Others 9 (nc)

Core vote (before undecided voters are excluded): Fianna Fáil 19 (+3); Fine Gael 20 (-1); Labour 27 (+5); Sinn Féin 6 (-2); Green Party 2 (-1); Independents/Others 8 (+1); Undecided voters 18 per cent (+5).

Brian Cowen, FF: 19 (+1), Enda Kenny, FG 25 (+1), Eamon Gilmore, Lab 49 (+3), John Gormley, GP 18 (-3), Gerry Adams, SF 29 (-2).

On those poll figures, my analysis based on calculating constituency estimates of party support estimates the following number of seats for the different parties : Fianna Fail 49, Fine Gael 42, Labour 61, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 6, Indepedents and Other Small Parties 8

If this analysis is amended to take account of the pattern of support change in the Spring Tide election of 1992 (i.e. geography of support gains/losses by Labour/Fianna Fail and Fine Gael between the 1989 and 1992 general elections) the seat estimates remain largely the same, although there are noticeable differences in terms of the constituencies themselves : Fianna Fail 47, Fine Gael 42, Labour 62, Green Party 0, Sinn Fein 5, Indepedents and Other Small Parties 10.

[Apjp]

IrishReforms.ie has done some work on the figures in Constituency terms.

http://politicalreform.ie/

Like I said though-FF and FG will ultimately be together after the next ekection. Labour and SF just cannot get a majority unfortunately. We need more new parties entering the frame if this alignment to the left is to happen. Saw two great letters in the independent today-one for a referendum on a national government until the deficit is clear. another for a people's party whereby each memebr elects the spokespeople. As someone who has written plenty of letters though-I know it is a shame no one wants to act with you on them. the more DS groups we have, the more choice, and the more seats ran for, the better the chance of a DS majority. If Antie is reading this, how many candidates will SP run in 2012? I would have thought now is the perfect chance for his party to make a run for an alignment with SF and Labour.

[antiestablishmentarian]

Like I said though-FF and FG will ultimately be together after the next ekection. Labour and SF just cannot get a majority unfortunately. We need more new parties entering the frame if this alignment to the left is to happen. Saw two great letters in the independent today-one for a referendum on a national government until the deficit is clear. another for a people's party whereby each memebr elects the spokespeople. As someone who has written plenty of letters though-I know it is a shame no one wants to act with you on them. the more DS groups we have, the more choice, and the more seats ran for, the better the chance of a DS majority. If Antie is reading this, how many candidates will SP run in 2012? I would have thought now is the perfect chance for his party to make a run for an alignment with SF and Labour.

Hi APJP, just to make response to your question about the SP we'll be running candidates in 3 of the main cities, and possibly in Drogheda too. We have an outside chance of winning 3 seats, and should be guaranteed at least one with Joe Higgins running in his old constituency, and Mick Barry in Cork and Clare Daly in Dublin North both having an outside chance of picking up seats too. We wouldn't support a Labour/SF government unless it was a government on a programme that the party membership accepted: we don't want to go into coalition to manage capitalism and save it, when capitalism is the problem. We feel more can be done to change things by building an opposition on the streets and in workplaces, and in strengthening the forces of the left, rather than in the Dáil.

[Griska]

IrishReforms.ie has done some work on the figures in Constituency terms.

http://politicalreform.ie/

Surely a blind guess without knowing how many candidates Labour intend to run. I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

[C. Flower]

Surely a blind guess without knowing how many candidates Labour intend to run. I'd take it with a pinch of salt.

Rightly so. Only in the realms of the possible, not the probable.

[Apjp]

Hi APJP, just to make response to your question about the SP we'll be running candidates in 3 of the main cities, and possibly in Drogheda too. We have an outside chance of winning 3 seats, and should be guaranteed at least one with Joe Higgins running in his old constituency, and Mick Barry in Cork and Clare Daly in Dublin North both having an outside chance of picking up seats too. We wouldn't support a Labour/SF government unless it was a government on a programme that the party membership accepted: we don't want to go into coalition to manage capitalism and save it, when capitalism is the problem. We feel more can be done to change things by building an opposition on the streets and in workplaces, and in strengthening the forces of the left, rather than in the Dáil.

Well surely if you won 3 seats you would consider negotiating a programme for government? I think you should run in all the major cities as well as navan, drogheda and north dublin around balbriggan-you have good support in those towns from what i hear. why not try to run ten or twelve tds? after all two heads are better than one, and so on. and i guess that means you will be in my constituency too as either before or after 2012, we are being forced to align with drogheda. in any case, why not try and build up support rurally? do you no harm-particularly in suburban areas of towns.

[antiestablishmentarian]

Well surely if you won 3 seats you would consider negotiating a programme for government? I think you should run in all the major cities as well as navan, drogheda and north dublin around balbriggan-you have good support in those towns from what i hear. why not try to run ten or twelve tds? after all two heads are better than one, and so on. and i guess that means you will be in my constituency too as either before or after 2012, we are being forced to align with drogheda. in any case, why not try and build up support rurally? do you no harm-particularly in suburban areas of towns.

I posted somewhere else on this forum that in such a scenario, with the election of other left candidates from PBP and the Séamus Healy group in South Tipp, we would try to use such a state of affairs to make a call for a new left party similar to those in other European countries like Die Linke. That would allow the left to move the political goalposts in our direction.

[BrendanGalway]

Hi APJP, just to make response to your question about the SP we'll be running candidates in 3 of the main cities, and possibly in Drogheda too.

Does that mean you are running in Galway City?

[antiestablishmentarian]

Does that mean you are running in Galway City?

No unfortunately, we're relatively weak there at the moment though we do have a branch which is growing. Its difficult in Galway as the SWP is alot more prominent than we are, though they tend to operate through party fronts like the current health services campaign.

[Stendec]

the blueshirts ran in the wash an there makin white flags out of them :):):)

[disability student]

Perhaps it's a final nail on Kenny's leadership as he will have to go. FG aren't going anywhere with him on helm. It's time for a change.:D

[Mick Tully]

Labour won't touch Sinn Fein. I'll put my house on it.

You would want to put more than that on it houses are worthless.:rolleyes:

[Griska]

You would want to put more than that on it houses are worthless.:rolleyes:

Good point. Mine ain't worth much these days. Maybe I'll bet your house Mick.

[Kid Ryder]

Good point. Mine ain't worth much these days. Maybe I'll bet your house Mick.

Sure isn't that what the govt's doing these days?;)

[Ah Well]

Senator David Norris is ahead in the race for the Presidency, according to a new poll of public opinion.

However, Senator Norris has not yet received the required backing of four county councils. As an independent candidate, their support is one of only two routes he can take to contest the election. The other is to garner support from TDs and Senators in Leinster House.

An Irish Times MRBI poll shows Fine Gael candidate Gay Mitchell in second place in public support, with Labour's Michael D Higgins a close third.

Read more: http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/most-back-norris-in-race-for-president--but-will-he-be-able-to-run-513411.html#ixzz1SdHbMAat

[simonj]

FF must be laughing at FG re both now on equal foooting.:D

They have always been two cheeks of one arse

[disability student]

they have always been two cheeks of one arse

+100::):)

[TotalMayhem]

Read the topic and thought, WTF???

Then I saw the date... :D

http://i.imgur.com/YOM8y.jpg

[C. Flower]

Mid summer is the traditional time of the year for graveyard masses.