Sunday Independent Poll - Cowen on 5% Approval - Labour Neck and Neck with FG

[C. Flower]

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/public-says-lenihan-is-only-hope-to-save-ff-2297997.html

There is 5% approval of Cowen ( telephone poll of 500, run by "Quantum Research"). This is within the margin of error. It's quite possible at this stage, if this poll has been properly conducted, that only Cowen's immediate family supports him.



When asked last week which party would get a first-preference vote in the event of General Election, the poll found levels of support as follows: Fianna Fail (14 per cent), down four points on September 2009; Fine Gael (25 per cent), down one point; Labour (24 per cent), up three points; Greens (3 per cent), down one point, Sinn Fein (3 per cent), down one point; independents (4 per cent), down one point; and 'don't knows' (27 per cent), up five points.
Quantum Research said: "Interestingly, there is a five-point increase in the figure for 'don't knows', going up from 22 per cent last year to 27 per cent this time round. This ties in with a lot of people's anger with the current political system as a whole, and their refusal to countenance voting for anyone. Many of these people would also like to see the establishment of a new party."

The popularity of the Taoiseach has continued to drop, with Brian Cowen (19 per cent), down five points since September 2009. As for the other leaders, Enda Kenny (22 per cent), was down nine points, Eamon Gilmore (54 per cent), fell four points, John Gormley (23 per cent) lost four points, and Gerry Adams (14 per cent) was down two points.

Dissatisfaction with Mr Cowen (79 per cent) was up eight points; Mr Kenny (70 per cent), up 10 points, Mr Gilmore (35 per cent), up three points; Mr Gormley (68 per cent), up two points and Mr Adams (65 per cent) down nine points.
Asked who would make the best Taoiseach after the election, voters said: Brian Cowen (5 per cent), Brian Lenihan (24 per cent), Enda Kenny (12 per cent), Richard Bruton (12 per cent), Eamon Gilmore (28 per cent), 'don't know' (19 per cent).

Mr Lenihan was also clearly the most popular when respondents were asked who would be the best leader of Fianna Fail: Brian Cowen (8 per cent); Brian Lenihan (42 per cent), Mary Hanafin (9 per cent), Micheal Martin (12 per cent), Dermot Ahern (6 per cent), and 'don't know' (23 per cent).

Respondents have still not connected with the Fine Gael leader. Asked who would be the best leader of Fine Gael, voters replied: Enda Kenny (19 per cent), Richard Bruton (37 per cent), Leo Varadkar (10 per cent), Simon Coveney (10 per cent), Brian Hayes (3 per cent), and 'don't know' (21 per cent).

Asked if there should be an election this autumn, voters said: Yes (62 per cent), up four points; No (38 per cent), down four points.


The Indo push for Lenihan as leader seems delusional, given his serious health problem and also with the growing public realisation of what a disaster the Government's actions on the economy have been.

[Xray]

FF could install Lenihan now, go for an early election to try save a few seats. I see no reason he could not do that. Budget 2011 is not a runner for FF, they will never hold the line now, TDs are going to start going over board. The only other PD is against the health cuts for god sake!

[C. Flower]

FF could install Lenihan now, go for an early election to try save a few seats. I see no reason he could not do that. Budget 2011 is not a runner for FF, they will never hold the line now, TDs are going to start going over board. The only other PD is against the health cuts for god sake!

Do you think anything would bring them back from their holidays ? The By-Election case, that they may well lose, is not on until mid October, just before the budget.

I don't see too many signs of the opposition being geared up for an election - although Labour has been selected candidates steadily.

[ang]

Brian Lenihan has been an "economic disaster" for this nation.

A one track policy of save the banks and absolutely no understanding of how this very measure has contributed to our downfall.

They may need a new leader in FF but Brian Lenihan is not the right choice never mind the sheer folly of trying to get someone in such fragile health to take on such a position, comprehending the sheer amount of what needs to be done is quite beyond him.

[concernedparent]

FF could install Lenihan now, go for an early election to try save a few seats. I see no reason he could not do that. Budget 2011 is not a runner for FF, they will never hold the line now, TDs are going to start going over board. The only other PD is against the health cuts for god sake!

I think they will start running scared. Like rats deserting the sinking ship. The majority of TD's are either on holiday or at home in their constituencies. This poll will scare them and being so close to home ground, they might begin to realise the level of anger that is out there. In regard to the economy, health cuts, unemployment and emigration.:mad:

[Xray]

Do you think anything would bring them back from their holidays ? The By-Election case, that they may well lose, is not on until mid October, just before the budget.

I don't see too many signs of the opposition being geared up for an election - although Labour has been selected candidates steadily.

Cant see them coming back early unless the bank thing goes south in a serious way again. But I am sure they are working away in the background. No FF TD is talking about anything else, their party is on the line here and realistically their know the country would do better now with stable government.

If they look in the mirror they have got to know that it is not in their interest or the national interest to continue. They were really pushing their luck doing what they did without a mandate anyway.

Nobody could honestly think there will be a recovery now before an election, it is likely to feel a lot on the ground when another 5 or 6 billion is taken out of the economy. The interest rate rises alone are a real feel bad factor. I would leave Kenny to his five minutes of fame.

[concernedparent]

Cant see them coming back early unless the bank thing goes south in a serious way again. But I am sure they are working away in the background. No FF TD is talking about anything else, their party is on the line here and realistically their know the country would do better now with stable government.

If they look in the mirror they have got to know that it is not in their interest or the national interest to continue. They were really pushing their luck doing what they did without a mandate anyway.

Nobody could honestly think there will be a recovery now before an election, it is likely to feel a lot on the ground when another 5 or 6 billion is taken out of the economy. The interest rate rises alone are a real feel bad factor. I would leave Kenny to his five minutes of fame.

As an electorate, do we start to worry that there is no apparent alternative government, complete with a manifesto and coherent policies, to get us out of this mess.:(

[Xray]

Brian Lenihan has been an "economic disaster" for this nation.

A one track policy of save the banks and absolutely no understanding of how this very measure has contributed to our downfall.

They may need a new leader in FF but Brian Lenihan is not the right choice never mind the sheer folly of trying to get someone in such fragile health to take on such a position, comprehending the sheer amount of what needs to be done is quite beyond him.

It would be easier to lead an election in Oct and then take a seat on the opposition benches than to deliver the budget. Enough people think Lenihan is God to save seats. I think he is worse than Cowen because of the bank thing, but I am floating voter that might support him.

FF is in real danger of not existing after the next election if they don't take care of business. Hanafin is an option but she may want to wait until later in the day. They need a caretaker leader that is willing to suffer defeat in an election.

If they continue on and try to hold the line it will be very interesting. That could well result in Labour winning an election in a year or two and the end of Kenny. FG and FF need an election and Lab would settle for the current result. I am sure the Greens are desperate not to have a FF walk out.

I guess the other option is a new leader and no election. That would be even more interesting. Cowen would want to address the Nation and do something amazing to survive at this stage. It is much worse than they think it is. Nobody supports them.

The floor under ff was 30%, then 25%, then never lower than 20%. What is it now? 10%. They need to move before people get used to the idea of not voting for them or there will be no comeback.

It is not just the second TD in a constituency that is getting nervous now, many places will have no FF TD. Ministers will lose seats.

This is meltdown. They can stop congratulations themselves now that we did not riot. We are plenty angry and plenty aware of what a pigs arse they have made of things.

[Xray]

As an electorate, do we start to worry that there is no apparent alternative government, complete with a manifesto and coherent policies, to get us out of this mess.:(

I have never read a manifesto in my life, they are nonsense. Vote for who you think will do best, the rest is up to them then.

[concernedparent]

I'll be honest, I've never read a manifesto in my life either.

But at this stage I dont know what any of them stand for any more or who they are supposed to represent.

I feel that none of them represent me or any of my concerns.

They are like one big blur of a morning after the night before.

[ang]

As an electorate, do we start to worry that there is no apparent alternative government, complete with a manifesto and coherent policies, to get us out of this mess.:(

We definitely don't seem to have any viable alternative.

We need to see a complete change of "political thinking" to get us out of this mess and really unless any of the other parties are going to look at default then we are going to deepen this crisis no matter what.

[Xray]

Well I am supporting Gilmore, if he leads the country that will be a fairly significant change for anything we have had before without being destabilizing. I will probably regret it, but you have got to go with something.

[C. Flower]

I have never read a manifesto in my life, they are nonsense. Vote for who you think will do best, the rest is up to them then.

Partly agree, because it will be a rapidly changing situation, but I would never vote for a party that didn't have a clear manifesto to at least indicate their intent.

In this instance, there is every danger that there will be a fudge and a new Government with no real difference in its economic actions to the incumbents.

[Xray]

Partly agree, because it will be a rapidly changing situation, but I would never vote for a party that didn't have a clear manifesto to at least indicate their intent.

In this instance, there is every danger that there will be a fudge and a new Government with no real difference in its economic actions to the incumbents.

I doubt that...

One thing that is certain is change, the path we are on is a disaster.

[concernedparent]

I doubt that...

One thing that is certain is change, the path we are on is a disaster.

I pray you are right about change.

The change will also have to come from within government departments, through the higher echelons of the public service.

They too will have to see that the path we are on is no longer viable and a radical change of thinking is required to get this country back on its feet again.

I will make sacrifices in order to safeguard some sort of future for my children and for the sick and elderly.

I would like to think that this is a majority thinking.

But enough of the deceit, lies, insults to our intelligence and the cr*p that is being foisted on us.:mad:

There are great people in this country, its a shame its not reflected in the calibre of our leadership.

[Furze]

As an electorate, do we start to worry that there is no apparent alternative government, complete with a manifesto and coherent policies, to get us out of this mess.:(

You are dead right -except there is no point worrying about it now.

Who in their right mind would vote either FG or Labour.

We need systemic change.

[Newsy]

I intend to send an e-mail to each of the parties.....except ff.....to ask what their intention is with regard to different issues........that will tell me, who I would be voting for.........I would support labour, BUT, I do want to see what each of them stands for on specific issues.

When ff go to the country......you can hear the drum-beat.....we needed to bailout anglo because it was necessary to the economic viability of the country.....bla....bla....bla.

They will bluff and spin as they have for the past 2 years.....nevermind before that......and they are still there. Can't you just hear the spin, when they are out on the street canvesing.

[concernedparent]

I intend to send an e-mail to each of the parties.....except ff.....to ask what their intention is with regard to different issues........that will tell me, who I would be voting for.........I would support labour, BUT, I do want to see what each of them stands for on specific issues.

When ff go to the country......you can hear the drum-beat.....we needed to bailout anglo because it was necessary to the economic viability of the country.....bla....bla....bla.

They will bluff and spin as they have for the past 2 years.....nevermind before that......and they are still there. Can't you just hear the spin, when they are out on the street canvesing.

I would like to ask each and every one of the alternative parties as to where they stand on Anglo.

Are any of them going to have the gumption to stand up and say that they will let it fold.:rolleyes:

[Newsy]

I would like to ask each and every one of the alternative parties as to where they stand on Anglo.

Are any of them going to have the gumption to stand up and say that they will let it fold.:rolleyes:

That is ONE of the top questions......as well as health. I am going to ask them to be very specific AND clear in their responses.

[Xray]

Anyone who is too specific is lying. For one they have not seen the books and the real bad news, also they will not be in gov alone. I am uninterested in promises that cannot be kept. Labour will likely have to take some very hard decisions that the unions hate, that is life. We are in a situation now that we must cut cut cut and tax tax tax and probably also dump a few departments and banks to survive. But we need a new broom in that is without the baggage. Radical change is not something that can be avoided, we have to remove at least another 20 billion from our economy and that is not counting lose of confidence and further interest rate rises. We should have front loaded all of this and be on the way up by now, as it is the "brave decisions" have not even settled the bank issue yet and we are worrying about somebody claiming for a phone or something.

[Newsy]

I well appreciate that there are more cuts coming......of that I have no doubt.

However....I want to know, what cuts will be made to their earnings....I want to know how much personal pain they are willing to take, to set the scene........I want to know what will their kind of leadership be......I want to know about ministerial cars....expenses.....AND THAT IS JUST A START.

We need to change the political culture to a culture where the politians work FOR the betterment of our country......where they have a vision for Ireland with issues with health, education, white-collar crime, whistle-blowing leglislation......just to mention a few.

But I want to know are they willing to take the pain......because if they aren't, then they won't get my vote......if they won't take it, then they have NO RIGHT to ask anyone else to take it.

[Xray]

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0717/1224274901620.html

"Increasingly, I have the feeling that the Government has boxed itself in politically, because it failed to address the tax issue in good time, as long as possible before the election.

I do not understand the political rationale of this postponement which, even assuming the Government survives for another 15 months, may force it to go to the country in October 2011 rather than face having to introduce a tax-heavy budget in December 2011,"

I agree...

[C. Flower]

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/opinion/2010/0717/1224274901620.html

"Increasingly, I have the feeling that the Government has boxed itself in politically, because it failed to address the tax issue in good time, as long as possible before the election.

I do not understand the political rationale of this postponement which, even assuming the Government survives for another 15 months, may force it to go to the country in October 2011 rather than face having to introduce a tax-heavy budget in December 2011,"

I agree...


The Deutsche Bank has also been pointing at the failure of the Government to tax income. They probably weren't looking hard at our astonomic VAT at the time.

Ireland has high VAT, which hits the poor, and can be written off by businesses and low income tax.

Thinking about FF overall, their actions in the banking crisis only make sense to me in terms of fear of the British and Germans, rather than preservation of their Irish buddies (they could have achieved that on a far more modest cost than NAMA and the bail out). I guess that some eviscerating things might have been said by the Germans about the 40 b bailout they had to make of a German IFSC-based bank that went down under Irish regulation.

FF would also have looked at the British reaction to the Iceland crisis - they locked down all Icelandic assets/finance under the anti-terror laws.

It will take an enormous amount of guts to face them down.

[jpc]

I think they will start running scared. Like rats deserting the sinking ship. The majority of TD's are either on holiday or at home in their constituencies. This poll will scare them and being so close to home ground, they might begin to realise the level of anger that is out there. In regard to the economy, health cuts, unemployment and emigration.:mad:

The issue that is concerning me is the apathy.
We're doomed sure the other crowd isn't any better.
That mindset is more prevalent than you realise.:(

[jpc]

The Deutsche Bank has also been pointing at the failure of the Government to tax income. They probably weren't looking hard at our astonomic VAT at the time.

Ireland has high VAT, which hits the poor, and can be written off by businesses and low income tax.

Thinking about FF overall, their actions in the banking crisis only make sense to me in terms of fear of the British and Germans, rather than preservation of their Irish buddies (they could have achieved that on a far more modest cost than NAMA and the bail out). I guess that some eviscerating things might have been said by the Germans about the 40 b bailout they had to make of a German IFSC-based bank that went down under Irish regulation.

FF would also have looked at the British reaction to the Iceland crisis - they locked down all Icelandic assets/finance under the anti-terror laws.

It will take an enormous amount of guts to face them down.

The above is probably the real reason for the NAMA debacle and the bailout of Anglo.
The Germans weren't going to pick up any more of the crap due to the non regulation of Financial services operating in this country
The unsaid story.
You're problem. You clean it up.

[homer]

Could some of the electoral statisticians give some chapter and verse as to the reliability of these polls - 500 phone calls - as opposed to face to face interviews of say a 1000 selected to represent different areas, age groups etc.

I doubt if we should rely too much on Sindo 500 phone `call poll. It's a headline when there is a dearth of real news.

[jimmymalone]

Could some of the electoral statisticians give some chapter and verse as to the reliability of these polls - 500 phone calls - as opposed to face to face interviews of say a 1000 selected to represent different areas, age groups etc.

I doubt if we should rely too much on Sindo 500 phone `call poll. It's a headline when there is a dearth of real news.

Quantum Research are not recognised within the polling industry as a reputable polling company. It wouldn't surprise me if they made half of their polls up;)