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jmcc
18-04-2017, 10:17 AM
Looks like May has called for a General Election in June. It is an interesting move that could have some unexpected outcomes and there may be some voting across traditional party lines.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39629603

Regards...jmcc

C. Flower
18-04-2017, 10:24 AM
Well - I didn't see that one coming.

jmcc
18-04-2017, 10:33 AM
A bit unexpected but a classic powerplay to take advantage of Labour's problems. It also kicks the Scottish situation into touch for the moment.

Regards...jmcc

C. Flower
18-04-2017, 12:28 PM
A bit unexpected but a classic powerplay to take advantage of Labour's problems. It also kicks the Scottish situation into touch for the moment.

Regards...jmcc

Reportedly even the Cabinet was caught on the hop.

But it makes every sense for May, as she is high in the polls, Corbyn low, and the difficulties of Brexit have not yet emerged.

Count Bobulescu
18-04-2017, 01:38 PM
What happens if the Lib Dems surge to the point where May needs them to form a coalition? Is that a victory or defeat?

Richardbouvet
18-04-2017, 02:58 PM
My theory: May WANTS to lose her overall majority, so if the Brexit deal goes badly she can let parliament call the whole thing off.

jmcc
18-04-2017, 03:47 PM
My theory: May WANTS to lose her overall majority, so if the Brexit deal goes badly she can let parliament call the whole thing off.This is a consolidation of power rather than a death wish for the Tories. Scotland is effectively lost and I think that May realises this. It is only a matter of both sides saving face. NI is also a major problem for the Tories in that the UK is economically supporting a lot of NI's economy. If this works for May, then the Tories will have destroyed the Labour party in the UK as the main party of opposition for a few election cycles and will also have consolidated the Tory vote.

Regards...jmcc

random new yorker
18-04-2017, 04:36 PM
This is a consolidation of power rather than a death wish for the Tories. Scotland is effectively lost and I think that May realises this. It is only a matter of both sides saving face. NI is also a major problem for the Tories in that the UK is economically supporting a lot of NI's economy. If this works for May, then the Tories will have destroyed the Labour party in the UK as the main party of opposition for a few election cycles and will also have consolidated the Tory vote.

Regards...jmcc

friends in the UK seem to agree with you

classic Tory powerplay .. she wins either way

hopefully the LibDems get their sh&t together..

Apjp
18-04-2017, 06:33 PM
What happens if the Lib Dems surge to the point where May needs them to form a coalition? Is that a victory or defeat?

This is a very likely outcome, or some parliamentary agreement with them.

If Lib Dems have a choice between a Labour on 270 seats or so(at best) and Cons at 300 or so it seems obvious who they will back.

It seems to me Lab would need a 10% rise in votes, a 12-13% rise in seats and the support of the SNP-actual votes, not just abstentions, to have any chance.

Corbyn is slightly more appealing than Miliband all round and generally more intelligent, better informed, more working class, but there are a lot of braindead English voters and the current 18th century voting system favours the stupid, the white middle aged male and the elderly-i.e. the racists, the wallies and the spivs who vote the most.

The Local elections in 2.5 weeks will tell us a lot.

Apjp
18-04-2017, 06:51 PM
https://twitter.com/MichaelLCrick/status/854393996625543168

Strange timing of May's. Hoping to cheat her way back into office again before any charges are filed?

Michael Crick‏Verified account
@MichaelLCrick

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BREAKING: The CPS have told Channel 4 News tonight that they are considering charges against more than 30 individuals. #electionexpenses

Apjp
18-04-2017, 06:54 PM
The biggest weapon the Tories have is the media.

I saw videos from ITV, Express media, Channel 4 circulating on FB in the last 2 hours interviewing 'random voters' in Wolverhampton, Norwich and elsewhere.

Curiously only older people and middle aged men were interviewed. Not one young person, not one woman younger than 60-98% of them were white.

jmcc
19-04-2017, 12:22 AM
friends in the UK seem to agree with youThe horror of it! Having friends who agree with me of all people. :) Still though it is a power consolidation move rather than a power play. There's a big difference. It is intended to keep and build on existing power rather than grab power from a position of having little or none.


classic Tory powerplay .. she wins either wayThere's also an election expenses issue that may have forced her hand.


hopefully the LibDems get their sh&t together..The problem with the UK electoral system is that it is a First Past The Post one rather than a proportional representation one. Thus it was possible for UKIP to have large numbers of votes but no parliamentary seats. The LibDems will be focused on trying to get votes from the Tory floating vote and from Labour. Labour is almost tearing itself apart over the Corbynite/Blairite situation.

Scotland may be considered lost territory by the Tories and this could be thought of as an attempt to destroy Labour as the leading opposition party. Without the massive Scottish vote, Labour is forced to rely on its support in England and Wales. There will be an attempt to turn Labour into primarily a London party with reduced support outside that region. Whether it succeeds is quite another thing. But Wales could be a very interesting battleground. NI is as opaque as ever to the Tories.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc
19-04-2017, 12:26 AM
Curiously only older people and middle aged men were interviewed. Not one young person, not one woman younger than 60-98% of them were white.These were the demographics that decided the last UK GE, which the pollsters and "commentators" got wrong, and Brexit, which the pollsters and "commentators" got wrong too. This time, the media isn't taking the same chances in ignoring them and talking to the fools in the London media and their friends when they should be talking to real people.

Regards...jmcc

Count Bobulescu
19-04-2017, 01:58 AM
This is a very likely outcome, or some parliamentary agreement with them.

If Lib Dems have a choice between a Labour on 270 seats or so(at best) and Cons at 300 or so it seems obvious who they will back.

It seems to me Lab would need a 10% rise in votes, a 12-13% rise in seats and the support of the SNP-actual votes, not just abstentions, to have any chance.

Corbyn is slightly more appealing than Miliband all round and generally more intelligent, better informed, more working class, but there are a lot of braindead English voters and the current 18th century voting system favours the stupid, the white middle aged male and the elderly-i.e. the racists, the wallies and the spivs who vote the most.

The Local elections in 2.5 weeks will tell us a lot.

I think that scenario is still in the realm of the possible, rather than the probable.


Stereotyping again. Now tell us what you really think.............

random new yorker
19-04-2017, 03:29 AM
The horror of it! Having friends who agree with me of all people. :)

i agree w you sometimes :) although i only talk to you when i DISagree :)

random new yorker
19-04-2017, 03:32 AM
Originally Posted by Apjp:
Curiously only older people and middle aged men were interviewed. Not one young person, not one woman younger than 60-98% of them were white.


These were the demographics that decided the last UK GE, which the pollsters and "commentators" got wrong, and Brexit, which the pollsters and "commentators" got wrong too. This time, the media isn't taking the same chances in ignoring them and talking to the fools in the London media and their friends when they should be talking to real people.

Regards...jmcc

:rolleyes:

someone will tell ya're a bigot ..

DCon
19-04-2017, 04:39 AM
Labour's only hope is to become the anti BREXIT party

Turn the GE into a second BREXIT vote

Shaadi
19-04-2017, 04:59 AM
There could be a fair bit of head scratching after the result.

There's little doubt the Tories will gain a handsome majority but there is more to this for voters than endorsing Brexit by voting Tory.

The working class/less well off who were pro-Brexit UKIPers would be rather stupid to give their endorsement to 5 more years of Tory Cutbacks targeting the less well off. Unfortunately the FPTP voting system means that a split anti-Tory vote will be wasted.

pluralist
19-04-2017, 05:55 AM
Labour's only hope is to become the anti BREXIT party

Turn the GE into a second BREXIT vote

Lib Dems are the more convincing anti Brexit party. Early days yet, but Tim Farron seems to be playing a blinder so far.

barrym
19-04-2017, 07:33 AM
Interesting, opportunistic stuff.

If you look at the breakdown of last June's referendum vote it should give an indication for this June, the leave areas will vote to leave again, but, some of them are died in the wool Labour. If Corbyn concentrates on them, he will avoid too big a loss of old style Labour strongholds.

In the remain areas LibDems should, if they play their cards, do better.

Overall I don't think that the Cons will get over 100 majority, to avoid further oppression of the less well off.

pluralist
19-04-2017, 11:27 AM
Peter Hitchens' latest piece is worth a read. He basically says the Tories will do a lot less well than most analysts are predicting.

http://hitchensblog.mailonsunday.co.uk/2017/04/oh-no-not-again-could-this-be-the-election-that-goes-wrong-why-did-she-call-it.html

Saoirse go Deo
19-04-2017, 12:31 PM
Another election in the North! Will be interesting to see what the results will be of that.

Possibility of another assembly election on the same day?

pluralist
19-04-2017, 12:50 PM
Another election in the North! Will be interesting to see what the results will be of that.

Possibility of another assembly election on the same day?

Is it not time for SF to drop their abstentionist policy regarding Westminster?

Saoirse go Deo
19-04-2017, 12:56 PM
Is it not time for SF to drop their abstentionist policy regarding Westminster?

Can't see it making any difference. It's a somewhat hollow priniple given their participation in Stormont but would it serve any practical purpose to sit in London?

pluralist
19-04-2017, 01:00 PM
Can't see it making any difference. It's a somewhat hollow priniple given their participation in Stormont but would it serve any practical purpose to sit in London?


Probably not much of a practical difference, I'd grant, but possibly they could assist with a potential 'Remain'-backing coalition with Labour/Lib Dems/SNP/Plaid/SDLP in the event the Tories numbers don't stack up? Could be a pipe dream, granted.

Shaadi
19-04-2017, 01:45 PM
Can't see it making any difference. It's a somewhat hollow priniple given their participation in Stormont but would it serve any practical purpose to sit in London?If they did that'd be the last they'd see of my vote. It's hard enough for politicians not to become captured by the insider culture without them abandoning their own basic principles.

Apjp
19-04-2017, 01:45 PM
These were the demographics that decided the last UK GE, which the pollsters and "commentators" got wrong, and Brexit, which the pollsters and "commentators" got wrong too. This time, the media isn't taking the same chances in ignoring them and talking to the fools in the London media and their friends when they should be talking to real people.

Regards...jmcc

Yeah but I have seen about 6 videos interviewing the public since last night.

Somehow not one person supported Labour, and very few supported anyone else but Theresa May.

Somehow I think these videos and 'random' street interviews are very edited and carefully stage managed.

What are the odds of doing 6 different videos in 4 different cities and not coming across 1 Labour supporter, 1 person younger than 45, or 1 woman younger than 60?

The public think what the media tell them to think in England.

Apjp
19-04-2017, 01:48 PM
I think that scenario is still in the realm of the possible, rather than the probable.


Stereotyping again. Now tell us what you really think.............

Well, to flesh it out, I think stupidity and trust in the media and ultra conservative politics is largely present in those demographics I mentioned above, admittedly with some disgust.

These are the same people who vote for right wing politics around the world but in England the state of media brainwashing is all too palpable. There have been studies done on how the BBC in particular treats Corbyn, and of course Murdoch owns like 30% of the Press there anyways.

And of course, these people vote more than anyone else out of fear that themmuns might get back in.

Apjp
19-04-2017, 01:50 PM
Lib Dems are the more convincing anti Brexit party. Early days yet, but Tim Farron seems to be playing a blinder so far.

If the polls are to be believed, at best maybe Labour will have a small increase in seats, and the Lib Dems will take the Conservative's majority off them, rendering their Brexit aganeda mute.

In other words, pray for anything slightly different to the forecast Tory majority.

Timed perfectly to put off or delay any minor prosecutions over the last election.

Apjp
19-04-2017, 01:52 PM
Probably not much of a practical difference, I'd grant, but possibly they could assist with a potential 'Remain'-backing coalition with Labour/Lib Dems/SNP/Plaid/SDLP in the event the Tories numbers don't stack up? Could be a pipe dream, granted.

SF support a British govt. in the British parliament?

What are you smoking?

Apjp
19-04-2017, 01:53 PM
If they did that'd be the last they'd see of my vote. It's hard enough for politicians not to become captured by the insider culture without them abandoning their own basic principles.

+100.

Donal Og
19-04-2017, 05:46 PM
I so wish Labour had a chance of a decent showing. Their best hope would lie in appealing to the 16 million ppl who voted Remain and maybe a million or so with buyer's remorse. Alas , Corbyn is anti EU so thats his main weapon decommissioned. A decent man if a bit geeky , he was my MP in the 90s. Before that I had Dianne Abbott.I'm so old I canvassed for Foot in 83. This is all getting drearily familiar....

DCon
19-04-2017, 09:22 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9zefhMXcAE0Jh_.jpg

Shaadi
19-04-2017, 09:25 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C9zefhMXcAE0Jh_.jpg

Wow, May they get everything they deserve.

jmcc
19-04-2017, 09:30 PM
Wow, May they get everything they deserve.And remember that this is a First Past The Post system rather than Proportional Representation. This could, unless the LibDems manage to attract a significant anti-Brexit vote from Labour and the Tories, result in a potential loss of most if not all seats. Interestingly, Scotland and NI are not included above so it appears to be only England and Wales. This makes May's decision somewhat more understandable in that Labour's support is not bigger than the combined LibDems, UKIP and Others.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc
19-04-2017, 09:33 PM
I so wish Labour had a chance of a decent showing. Their best hope would lie in appealing to the 16 million ppl who voted Remain and maybe a million or so with buyer's remorse. Alas , Corbyn is anti EU so thats his main weapon decommissioned. A decent man if a bit geeky , he was my MP in the 90s. Before that I had Dianne Abbott.I'm so old I canvassed for Foot in 83. This is all getting drearily familiar....Look on the bright side, there wasn't another Falklands this time around. :) The EUnuchs in Brussels have handled this thing exactly the wrong way. But then with maggots like Drunken Juncker, it was to be expected. The best way to make enemies is to portray them as enemies. These fools have given Brexit a momentum that it would not otherwise had.

Regards...jmcc

random new yorker
19-04-2017, 10:25 PM
Look on the bright side, there wasn't another Falklands this time around. :) The EUnuchs in Brussels have handled this thing exactly the wrong way. But then with maggots like Drunken Juncker, it was to be expected. The best way to make enemies is to portray them as enemies. These fools have given Brexit a momentum that it would not otherwise had.

Regards...jmcc

sounds like the Queenie lover thinks people in Europe should have facilitated a (soft) Brexit?

she wants hard Brexit ... well give them hard Brexit? why are you making this about the EUnuchs in Brussels?

it's as if you think Oh we don't give a sh*t about them in EU but they'd better give a sh*t about us? :rolleyes: that is how you ended up with 52% of the Pro-Brexit vote. It's cos you think 'you are better than them'

There was initial shock in the continent, but I dont think Europeans will be cryin' the UK leaving.. people are actually quite respectful of the UK decision to leave, but don't expect to see them tear eyed..

it doesn't look like people care much.. what I am reading is 'if you/UK want to leave, don't let the door hit you in the ass too hard'

if the threat is the UK becoming Singapore I would think the whole gig can be undermined .. and don't forget that Trump is mainstreaming into the Republican fold.. so... Theresa May have gotten a good shag the first time around but when she comes for second helpings it May feel a bit different.

jmcc
19-04-2017, 10:53 PM
she wants hard Brexit ... well give them hard Brexit? why are you making this about the EUnuchs in Brussels?This is an election that is being fought on Brexit lines and the actions of the EUnuchs like Drunken Juncker and his merry band of unelected maggots have provided the pro-Brexit side with a very useful enemy. They have given Brexit a dynamic that it would not otherwise have had and it provides the Tory party with the incentive to attract a lot of the vote that went to UKIP over the years. There has always been a "Little Englander" element in the Tory party vote. The Labour Party has its own problems and it cannot campaign on an anti-Brexit platform because it has its own internal splits. The LibDems will probably try to position themselves as a kind of sensible anti-Brexit vote.

You are probably not familiar with Irish and UK history but the situation that the UK is facing in this GE is not unlike the Home Rule situation it faced with Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Except this time it is Scotland that may wish to leave (Sturgeon has already notified May of her intent to proceed with plans for a second Scottish Independence referendum anyway.) This is a post-UK election in that the battleground for the Tories and Labour is England and Wales.

Regards...jmcc

random new yorker
20-04-2017, 03:37 AM
This is an election that is being fought on Brexit lines and the actions of the EUnuchs like Drunken Juncker and his merry band of unelected maggots have provided the pro-Brexit side with a very useful enemy. They have given Brexit a dynamic that it would not otherwise have had and it provides the Tory party with the incentive to attract a lot of the vote that went to UKIP over the years. There has always been a "Little Englander" element in the Tory party vote. The Labour Party has its own problems and it cannot campaign on an anti-Brexit platform because it has its own internal splits. The LibDems will probably try to position themselves as a kind of sensible anti-Brexit vote.

why is that a problem of the Junker? seems to me the problem is the Lille Englander and their awesome ideas of grandeur .. the folks in the continent are and WILL be minding their own business and interests .. most people do not feel they have to make special adjustments to accommodate the self-centered Brits, if they want to leave, lead by their Ms. Arrogance-in-Chief PM, they can hit the road. If Corbyn is For Brexit at heart, then grow a pair and be for Brexit and get the [email protected] out!

As you can see, the problem is not the Junker or the folks in the mainland, right? the problem is Lille Drunkard England.

and as you very well know, Little England seeps through here too, every now and then I get a good waff of their thinking in your comments, apjp, dcon etc...


You are probably not familiar with Irish and UK history but the situation that the UK is facing in this GE is not unlike the Home Rule situation it faced with Ireland in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Except this time it is Scotland that may wish to leave (Sturgeon has already notified May of her intent to proceed with plans for a second Scottish Independence referendum anyway.) This is a post-UK election in that the battleground for the Tories and Labour is England and Wales.

Regards...jmcc

True, i am not very familiar with the Home Rule situation v Ire v early 20th century and in all honesty that is a problem for you guys to have (I do follow their politics and know Scotland is heading for the door which makes me quite giddy)... now for you to get on the board and whine that 'g-d damn those drunkards in Brussels aren't making our lives easier' -- i can tell you my opinion is this: they can go ***** off back to the cold shores where they came from ..Europe will be happy to house the EU Institutions now in London and get the jobs.. .I even nudged a couple of friends in Lisbon to put a Bid to get some of them to move to Portugal, why not? (- their loss will be our gain -).

No-one pushed them out. They did it to themselves. If they are breaking the dishes in their own kitchen people should be thinking that it may be a good idea to connect the upstairs with the garage right next door and build a whole new shinny kitchen for themselves, and leave the downstairs to the quarreling parties.

it is also not other Europeans problem if the Tories will be governing Lille England for a couple decades .. but maybe the Lib Dems pick up enough Remain steam ? I think they signed up some 5000 ppl yesterday just after TMay announcement of the new snap election ... (that liar TMay is the Britard version of Trump and people have gotten 5 psychotic months following Trump's lies.. maybe it will serve a greater purpose? maybe it will backfire in her face? no clue... certainly it is fun to watch .. )

jmcc
20-04-2017, 04:11 AM
why is that a problem of the Junker?Because that little maggot and his unelected friends essentially polarised things in the EU so much so that they made Brexit inevitable. He's an uncouth individual who has a drinking problem. He is a political liability and is only in his position because the Germans and French put him there. There is a massive democratic deficit with the EU and it has gone far beyond the trading bloc that it once was.


As you can see, the problem is not the Junker or the folks in the mainland, right? the problem is Lille Drunkard England.And again, you don't understand EU politics. The UK is a major economy in the EU and losing it causes a lot of problems. It is a major importer of EU goods and it has a large number of EU immigrants. The official EU line is that the UK is cutting its own throat but the reality is that the UK's negotiating position is far stronger than it appears because it could easily cause an economic crisis that would split the EU right down an East-West axis.


and as you very well know, Little England seeps through here too, every now and then I get a good waff of their thinking in your comments, apjp, dcon etc... We understand the UK situation better than you. Most Irish people have relatives in the UK and others have spent time there. This does not mean that we are British.


True, i am not very familiar with the Home Rule situation v Ire v early 20th century and in all honesty that is a problem for you guys to have (I do follow their politics and know Scotland is heading for the door which makes me quite giddy)...Do some reading on it as there are some very strong parallels with the Scottish vote in the House of Commons being equivalent to the Irish vote in the early 20th century. If a situation arises where the difference between the Tory seats and the Labour seats (and the LibDems, Greens,Plaid Cyumru etc) is less than the Scottish seats, then the Scots basically hold the balance of power. This is the nightmare scenario for the Tories.


No-one pushed them out.Actually there has been an attempt to impose a German/French control over the EU for the last decade or so. The Lebensraum move by Germany to expand into Eastern Europe and bring in former Warsaw Pact countries into the EU was a dangerous one and many of these countries did not meet the entry criteria. The UK ended up with a lot of immigration from these Accession states whereas Germany availed of a temporary ban on such immigration.


it is also not other Europeans problem if the Tories will be governing Lille England for a couple decades .. but maybe the Lib Dems pick up enough Remain steam ?The problem with the LibDems is that Labour still hasn't torn itself apart yet.


I think they signed up some 5000 ppl yesterday just after TMay announcement of the new snap election ... (that liar TMay is the Britard version of Trump and people have gotten 5 psychotic months following Trump's lies.. maybe it will serve a greater purpose? maybe it will backfire in her face? no clue... certainly it is fun to watch .. )The vote group to watch will be the UKIP ones. These may shift to the Tories but there is going to be voting across traditional party lines.

Regards...jmcc

DCon
20-04-2017, 05:16 AM
http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/C9zh6JNXoAEMial.jpg

barrym
20-04-2017, 07:16 AM
The public think what the media tell them to think in England.

Only in England? Modern politics is managed by spin. The media agenda is about 24 hours in duration the handlers manage on that basis. In the UK, Corbyn's inactivity on the Brexit agenda and over concentration on trying to reposition the left has led to very low poll ratings. Ergo, the handlers start a flash, opportunist election "result" based on those figures.

Within 24 hours there is a reconsideration of the situation, the LibDem options are factored in, Scotland is factored in, etc. The result? Media management on whether the Cons will get 100+ majority.

Watch this space....

Apjp
21-04-2017, 10:02 PM
why is that a problem of the Junker? seems to me the problem is the Lille Englander and their awesome ideas of grandeur .. the folks in the continent are and WILL be minding their own business and interests .. most people do not feel they have to make special adjustments to accommodate the self-centered Brits, if they want to leave, lead by their Ms. Arrogance-in-Chief PM, they can hit the road. If Corbyn is For Brexit at heart, then grow a pair and be for Brexit and get the [email protected] out!

As you can see, the problem is not the Junker or the folks in the mainland, right? the problem is Lille Drunkard England.

and as you very well know, Little England seeps through here too, every now and then I get a good waff of their thinking in your comments, apjp, dcon etc...



True, i am not very familiar with the Home Rule situation v Ire v early 20th century and in all honesty that is a problem for you guys to have (I do follow their politics and know Scotland is heading for the door which makes me quite giddy)... now for you to get on the board and whine that 'g-d damn those drunkards in Brussels aren't making our lives easier' -- i can tell you my opinion is this: they can go ***** off back to the cold shores where they came from ..Europe will be happy to house the EU Institutions now in London and get the jobs.. .I even nudged a couple of friends in Lisbon to put a Bid to get some of them to move to Portugal, why not? (- their loss will be our gain -).

No-one pushed them out. They did it to themselves. If they are breaking the dishes in their own kitchen people should be thinking that it may be a good idea to connect the upstairs with the garage right next door and build a whole new shinny kitchen for themselves, and leave the downstairs to the quarreling parties.

it is also not other Europeans problem if the Tories will be governing Lille England for a couple decades .. but maybe the Lib Dems pick up enough Remain steam ? I think they signed up some 5000 ppl yesterday just after TMay announcement of the new snap election ... (that liar TMay is the Britard version of Trump and people have gotten 5 psychotic months following Trump's lies.. maybe it will serve a greater purpose? maybe it will backfire in her face? no clue... certainly it is fun to watch .. )

Once again you are more or less calling us the same as the English.

Your ignorance knows no bounds. Why don't you stick to American and Portuguese politics cos you know nothing about Irish and British politics.

It is not in Ireland's interests to have a vendetta against the Brits, no matter how stupid English voters may seem at times, and if anything Brussels is just as immature and cavalier as the Tory party.

Your self-righteousness is short sighted and Brussels will only shoot themselves in the foot if they take on the Brits in a trade war.

We had a trade war with the Brits after the civil war. It lasted from 1932-1948 more or less, with the actual trade war being followed by years of sanctions and threats to invade and reconquer us as our neutrality was a direct affront to Churchill. He actually tried to starve us into submission, but of course there was never any chance of the post independence elite kowtowing to Whitehall. If you are going to take on the Brits economically, you better be prepared for years of hardship.

I think your bluster is hot air and if a post Brexit trade war damaged Portugal's tourist industry or wine cork industry, the likes of yourself would soon change your tune.

Put simply, Irish people know what the Brits are like, and they are almost as stubborn as ourselves and the Tories are the most bitter, backstabbing and conniving of the lot. Europe will suffer badly if they take on the Brits, and all that hot air coming out of europhiles like yourself is just guff. When push comes to shove, let's see how many EU countries actually follow up their talk with sanctions, cos the Brits certainly won't take it lying down.

You are basically dealing with imperialists and they want you to take the bait because it solidifies their own grip on power if you do.

Apjp
21-04-2017, 10:05 PM
Because that little maggot and his unelected friends essentially polarised things in the EU so much so that they made Brexit inevitable. He's an uncouth individual who has a drinking problem. He is a political liability and is only in his position because the Germans and French put him there. There is a massive democratic deficit with the EU and it has gone far beyond the trading bloc that it once was.

And again, you don't understand EU politics. The UK is a major economy in the EU and losing it causes a lot of problems. It is a major importer of EU goods and it has a large number of EU immigrants. The official EU line is that the UK is cutting its own throat but the reality is that the UK's negotiating position is far stronger than it appears because it could easily cause an economic crisis that would split the EU right down an East-West axis.

We understand the UK situation better than you. Most Irish people have relatives in the UK and others have spent time there. This does not mean that we are British.

Do some reading on it as there are some very strong parallels with the Scottish vote in the House of Commons being equivalent to the Irish vote in the early 20th century. If a situation arises where the difference between the Tory seats and the Labour seats (and the LibDems, Greens,Plaid Cyumru etc) is less than the Scottish seats, then the Scots basically hold the balance of power. This is the nightmare scenario for the Tories.

Actually there has been an attempt to impose a German/French control over the EU for the last decade or so. The Lebensraum move by Germany to expand into Eastern Europe and bring in former Warsaw Pact countries into the EU was a dangerous one and many of these countries did not meet the entry criteria. The UK ended up with a lot of immigration from these Accession states whereas Germany availed of a temporary ban on such immigration.

The problem with the LibDems is that Labour still hasn't torn itself apart yet.

The vote group to watch will be the UKIP ones. These may shift to the Tories but there is going to be voting across traditional party lines.

Regards...jmcc

The Home Rule comparison is spot on.

The Scots are bing infantalised in a very similar way to the Irish from the 1880'S-1916.

Apjp
21-04-2017, 10:13 PM
Only in England? Modern politics is managed by spin. The media agenda is about 24 hours in duration the handlers manage on that basis. In the UK, Corbyn's inactivity on the Brexit agenda and over concentration on trying to reposition the left has led to very low poll ratings. Ergo, the handlers start a flash, opportunist election "result" based on those figures.

Within 24 hours there is a reconsideration of the situation, the LibDem options are factored in, Scotland is factored in, etc. The result? Media management on whether the Cons will get 100+ majority.

Watch this space....

Well the English seem abnormally gullible in that regard.

How many people at home do you know that bother their hole buying a newspaper?

pluralist
22-04-2017, 12:04 AM
Well the English seem abnormally gullible in that regard.

How many people at home do you know that bother their hole buying a newspaper?

England has an unusually right wing media, and also a significant sector of its population buy into the values propounded by that media.

Unfortunately, stereotypes like John Cleese's 'Basil Fawlty' character, the Harry Enfield 'Loadsamoney' character, and the Fast Show's 'I appear to be richer than you' character don't come out of now-where - they are are based on real tropes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcxs-CH4kG0

random new yorker
22-04-2017, 03:55 AM
Once again you are more or less calling us the same as the English.

Your ignorance knows no bounds. Why don't you stick to American and Portuguese politics cos you know nothing about Irish and British politics.

It is not in Ireland's interests to have a vendetta against the Brits, no matter how stupid English voters may seem at times, and if anything Brussels is just as immature and cavalier as the Tory party.

Your self-righteousness is short sighted and Brussels will only shoot themselves in the foot if they take on the Brits in a trade war.

AH AH AH AHAHA :D :D :)

so, WAIT!! I am getting a whiff of fear in the post above... there is little I despise as much as the stench of fear in a man ... have you gotten a sense of how much people don't really give a ***** about the Brits leaving the EU in mainland Europe and are you getting a bit panicky thinking how vindictive they may turn on ya (irish n scots)?

you think that continental Europe is Ireland? never in my life i have ever met a continental european who's afraid of the Brits... what are you on about man! grow up... people in mainland Europe are very aware of what the Brits are capable of but I believe we know how to deal w a Brit, the minute you are afraid of them you are toast, you have lost. The way you deal with them is the same way they deal with you. If they are mercenaries, you think and act mercenary, they do understand and value business so you can pursue business dealing. They do NOT however respect servants, the day you act the servant that's the day you've lost your game.

They dominated you guys for centuries because they know your weaknesses, they know how to buy you, your services your servants and your favors...same goes for the Scots (every man has a price..).. That might not quite work in mainland EU bc people have different values, different assessments of what is valuable and important to them.


We had a trade war with the Brits after the civil war. It lasted from 1932-1948 more or less, with the actual trade war being followed by years of sanctions and threats to invade and reconquer us as our neutrality was a direct affront to Churchill. He actually tried to starve us into submission, but of course there was never any chance of the post independence elite kowtowing to Whitehall. If you are going to take on the Brits economically, you better be prepared for years of hardship.

I think your bluster is hot air and if a post Brexit trade war damaged Portugal's tourist industry or wine cork industry, the likes of yourself would soon change your tune.

seems u know little about Portugal after all... if Portuguese people were worried about how fat their pocketbook would get they would have joined the likes of the Spaniards long ago.

Now take a moment to think why Portugal is the oldest country in Europe with the same standing borders for 800 years and think about just how "jeune" Ireland is and then maybe we will dance together on this floor...


Put simply, Irish people know what the Brits are like, and they are almost as stubborn as ourselves and the Tories are the most bitter, backstabbing and conniving of the lot. Europe will suffer badly if they take on the Brits, and all that hot air coming out of europhiles like yourself is just guff. When push comes to shove, let's see how many EU countries actually follow up their talk with sanctions, cos the Brits certainly won't take it lying down.

1. I agree that you know what Brits are like, what you don't seem to understand is what YOU irish people are like, what is about your weakness(es) that gives them a leg up.

2. idiotic statement regarding sanctions..who the hell is talking about sanctions? you don't seem to understand the difference between business dealing and sanctions. The brits will not take it lying down but i can assure you Continental Europe will not sit there legs open waiting to get f*cked over by them... what you are going to get is down to nitty griddy negotiation and if the Brits will be negotiating from a weak advantage point then they will get the short end of the deal. It is the same deal making as they have done with everyone else all over the world for last couple hundred years. The difference now is, people have learned how to play their game.

And the stench of your panicky fear is reality check as to why you guys have gotten the short end of the deal for so long. And the fact that you are young does not bode well for generations to come as you have been successfully brainwashed by the Brits to think you could do no better than what you've got (from them).


You are basically dealing with imperialists and they want you to take the bait because it solidifies their own grip on power if you do.

hmm .yea. hmmm.... except that the Portuguese launched global commerce in the mid 1500s so we should know a thing or two about colonialism, imperialism and the likes .. bring it on baby.. let them bring it onto Europe and let chips fall where they may.

I want to see them at the negotiating table, that is where the fun begins.

My only and true concern is about Europe and the fact that what goes on in France in the next couple of weeks could potentially bring it to its knees ... but here's the one thing that Europeans will not forget for the next 100 years: if Europe disintegrates and war erupts on the continent, this time around no one will pin it on the Germans. If that happens, it will be on the backs of the mercenary Brits.

barrym
22-04-2017, 07:37 AM
Well the English seem abnormally gullible in that regard.

How many people at home do you know that bother their hole buying a newspaper?

Of course, that is a major part of the problem, and, bizzarly, the alternatives, social media, change the perceptive.

Note, Ms May has said very little, apart from not wanting to debate on TV. The handling will move towards carefully crafted interviews on weekend tv.

Fraxinus
22-04-2017, 08:18 AM
AH AH AH AHAHA :D :D :)

so, WAIT!! I am getting a whiff of fear in the post above... there is little I despise as much as the stench of fear in a man ... have you gotten a sense of how much people don't really give a ***** about the Brits leaving the EU in mainland Europe and are you getting a bit panicky thinking how vindictive they may turn on ya (irish n scots)?

you think that continental Europe is Ireland? never in my life i have ever met a continental european who's afraid of the Brits... what are you on about man! grow up... people in mainland Europe are very aware of what the Brits are capable of but I believe we know how to deal w a Brit, the minute you are afraid of them you are toast, you have lost. The way you deal with them is the same way they deal with you. If they are mercenaries, you think and act mercenary, they do understand and value business so you can pursue business dealing. They do NOT however respect servants, the day you act the servant that's the day you've lost your game.

They dominated you guys for centuries because they know your weaknesses, they know how to buy you, your services your servants and your favors...same goes for the Scots (every man has a price..).. That might not quite work in mainland EU bc people have different values, different assessments of what is valuable and important to them.



seems u know little about Portugal after all... if Portuguese people were worried about how fat their pocketbook would get they would have joined the likes of the Spaniards long ago.

Now take a moment to think why Portugal is the oldest country in Europe with the same standing borders for 800 years and think about just how "jeune" Ireland is and then maybe we will dance together on this floor...



1. I agree that you know what Brits are like, what you don't seem to understand is what YOU irish people are like, what is about your weakness(es) that gives them a leg up.

2. idiotic statement regarding sanctions..who the hell is talking about sanctions? you don't seem to understand the difference between business dealing and sanctions. The brits will not take it lying down but i can assure you Continental Europe will not sit there legs open waiting to get f*cked over by them... what you are going to get is down to nitty griddy negotiation and if the Brits will be negotiating from a weak advantage point then they will get the short end of the deal. It is the same deal making as they have done with everyone else all over the world for last couple hundred years. The difference now is, people have learned how to play their game.

And the stench of your panicky fear is reality check as to why you guys have gotten the short end of the deal for so long. And the fact that you are young does not bode well for generations to come as you have been successfully brainwashed by the Brits to think you could do no better than what you've got (from them).



hmm .yea. hmmm.... except that the Portuguese launched global commerce in the mid 1500s so we should know a thing or two about colonialism, imperialism and the likes .. bring it on baby.. let them bring it onto Europe and let chips fall where they may.

I want to see them at the negotiating table, that is where the fun begins.

My only and true concern is about Europe and the fact that what goes on in France in the next couple of weeks could potentially bring it to its knees ... but here's the one thing that Europeans will not forget for the next 100 years: if Europe disintegrates and war erupts on the continent, this time around no one will pin it on the Germans. If that happens, it will be on the backs of the mercenary Brits.

There is a reason they've always had the upper hand.... They have simply been a big military and economic power while we have not. When you consider that William the Conquerer took over one of the best ran and richest kingdoms in Europe and then added Norman military might to it we haven't exactly been on a level playing field. It's no coincidence that Britain, France, Spain and Portugal, the bulk of the Roman empire in Europe, all went on to form imperial nations themselves.

Yes we have been guilty of servility but look at how they have dealt with attempted challenges to their power. 1974 Dublin Monaghan bombings possibly the only attack by a western European country on another since WW2.

Britain has historically dealt ruthlessly with non conformity in Ireland.

GregTimo
22-04-2017, 10:31 AM
Owen calls it as it is, while urging the maximum effort to get out the vote for Labour . Fed up listening to themselves out of touch condescending idiots spoofing so I applaud Owen's approach
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/18/labour-jeremy-corbyn-time-to-fight-theresa-may

The sort of in short version https://www.facebook.com/PeoplesMomentum/videos/438662059812520/

Apjp
22-04-2017, 11:16 AM
AH AH AH AHAHA :D :D :)

so, WAIT!! I am getting a whiff of fear in the post above... there is little I despise as much as the stench of fear in a man ... have you gotten a sense of how much people don't really give a ***** about the Brits leaving the EU in mainland Europe and are you getting a bit panicky thinking how vindictive they may turn on ya (irish n scots)?

you think that continental Europe is Ireland? never in my life i have ever met a continental european who's afraid of the Brits... what are you on about man! grow up... people in mainland Europe are very aware of what the Brits are capable of but I believe we know how to deal w a Brit, the minute you are afraid of them you are toast, you have lost. The way you deal with them is the same way they deal with you. If they are mercenaries, you think and act mercenary, they do understand and value business so you can pursue business dealing. They do NOT however respect servants, the day you act the servant that's the day you've lost your game.

They dominated you guys for centuries because they know your weaknesses, they know how to buy you, your services your servants and your favors...same goes for the Scots (every man has a price..).. That might not quite work in mainland EU bc people have different values, different assessments of what is valuable and important to them.



seems u know little about Portugal after all... if Portuguese people were worried about how fat their pocketbook would get they would have joined the likes of the Spaniards long ago.

Now take a moment to think why Portugal is the oldest country in Europe with the same standing borders for 800 years and think about just how "jeune" Ireland is and then maybe we will dance together on this floor...



1. I agree that you know what Brits are like, what you don't seem to understand is what YOU irish people are like, what is about your weakness(es) that gives them a leg up.

2. idiotic statement regarding sanctions..who the hell is talking about sanctions? you don't seem to understand the difference between business dealing and sanctions. The brits will not take it lying down but i can assure you Continental Europe will not sit there legs open waiting to get f*cked over by them... what you are going to get is down to nitty griddy negotiation and if the Brits will be negotiating from a weak advantage point then they will get the short end of the deal. It is the same deal making as they have done with everyone else all over the world for last couple hundred years. The difference now is, people have learned how to play their game.

And the stench of your panicky fear is reality check as to why you guys have gotten the short end of the deal for so long. And the fact that you are young does not bode well for generations to come as you have been successfully brainwashed by the Brits to think you could do no better than what you've got (from them).



hmm .yea. hmmm.... except that the Portuguese launched global commerce in the mid 1500s so we should know a thing or two about colonialism, imperialism and the likes .. bring it on baby.. let them bring it onto Europe and let chips fall where they may.

I want to see them at the negotiating table, that is where the fun begins.

My only and true concern is about Europe and the fact that what goes on in France in the next couple of weeks could potentially bring it to its knees ... but here's the one thing that Europeans will not forget for the next 100 years: if Europe disintegrates and war erupts on the continent, this time around no one will pin it on the Germans. If that happens, it will be on the backs of the mercenary Brits.

You can accuse and belittle Irish people and/or myself all you want-I just find you to be a loud mouthed ignoramus at this stage.

It doesn't change the fact that some sort of crazy revenge agenda would destroy the European and British economies and Europeans have as much to lose as the Brits in that regard.

I don't consider vindictive people to be very strong people themselves, for what it's worth. Your type of ideas above are similar to the Brussels mentality that has seen the Greeks and Cypriots belittled and attacked economically by the cosy central European banking/Franco-German cartels time out of number.

I seriously doubt people in Portugal want the tourist sector or the Wine Trade to be hit by Brexit-which they would be, make no mistake about it, if there was a sanctions war-which seems to be what some people in Brussels, who think along a similar vindictive line to yourself, would welcome despite it being Kamikaze politics. I have a friend who lives in North Portugal and his livelihood depends on tourists, many of them British. WTO tariffs of 50% or so could well be imposed on Britain if no agreement is reached by 2019, and they would reciprocate out of spite.

Forgive me for being less than enthusiastic about wanting to make Britain feel small. Maybe it is to do with what impact it would have on the jobs of friends and family at home, maybe I just think trade war leads us down a very dangerous road, maybe I am just not as spiteful as someone who mistakenly feels their country would not have to live with the consequences.

Apjp
22-04-2017, 11:22 AM
There is a reason they've always had the upper hand.... They have simply been a big military and economic power while we have not. When you consider that William the Conquerer took over one of the best ran and richest kingdoms in Europe and then added Norman military might to it we haven't exactly been on a level playing field. It's no coincidence that Britain, France, Spain and Portugal, the bulk of the Roman empire in Europe, all went on to form imperial nations themselves.

Yes we have been guilty of servility but look at how they have dealt with attempted challenges to their power. 1974 Dublin Monaghan bombings possibly the only attack by a western European country on another since WW2.

Britain has historically dealt ruthlessly with non conformity in Ireland.

'Guilty of servility'?

I think there is a difference between being a slave for centuries out of number and willingly submitting to the rule of another.

We cannot say Irish people ever did anything but resist British rule when they had the opportunity. 1916 was after all somewhat suicidal, as were numerous other rebellions. Only in Dublin across the whole of the 26 counties was there any significant Unionist minority.

I just think RNY is a big hibernophobe, maybe she had some bad run ins with 'Irish-Americans' or something. Everytime there was an opportunity, Irish people resisted British rule in whatever way they could.

I wonder what her view on the Portuguese subjugation of Angola is? Would she say that the Angolans were willingly servile? Would she absolve her whole country of blame and simply say 'that was the Junta'?

Probably she would not take too kindly to someone with little idea of the complexities of the subject lecturing her.

Most of my ancestors on my father's side were in the IRB/IRA between 1915-1924.

RNY is the first Portuguese person I have spoken to who truly seems to hate Irish people and Irish history, even calling us British. Not exactly the basis for an educated opinion on Irish history, is it?

Liberal until it suits her.

Fraxinus
22-04-2017, 12:08 PM
'Guilty of servility'?

I think there is a difference between being a slave for centuries out of number and willingly submitting to the rule of another.

We cannot say Irish people ever did anything but resist British rule when they had the opportunity. 1916 was after all somewhat suicidal, as were numerous other rebellions. Only in Dublin across the whole of the 26 counties was there any significant Unionist minority.

I just think RNY is a big hibernophobe, maybe she had some bad run ins with 'Irish-Americans' or something. Everytime there was an opportunity, Irish people resisted British rule in whatever way they could.

I wonder what her view on the Portuguese subjugation of Angola is? Would she say that the Angolans were willingly servile? Would she absolve her whole country of blame and simply say 'that was the Junta'?

Probably she would not take too kindly to someone with little idea of the complexities of the subject lecturing her.

Most of my ancestors on my father's side were in the IRB/IRA between 1915-1924.

RNY is the first Portuguese person I have spoken to who truly seems to hate Irish people and Irish history, even calling us British. Not exactly the basis for an educated opinion on Irish history, is it?

Liberal until it suits her.

I was on about the ailment Redmonditis. A significant portion of the country supported the likes of O'Connell, Redmond, Cosgrave and now Kenny. The FG governments of the past two terms have been labelled on this site as servile.

Absolutely agree that there had been very few countries that have continually resisted imperial invasion as long as Ireland has... The thorn in the side of the British empire. But it is dishonest to say that the entire population always behaved the same.

Apjp
22-04-2017, 03:56 PM
It's dishonest to paint the Irish as historically servile which is what the aforementioned Poster did.

jmcc
22-04-2017, 04:58 PM
Now take a moment to think why Portugal is the oldest country in Europe with the same standing borders for 800 yearsThere's little to plunder and nothing really worthwhile to be gained? The Muslims did invade and hold Portugal for hundreds of years.


hmm .yea. hmmm.... except that the Portuguese launched global commerce in the mid 1500s so we should know a thing or two about colonialism, imperialism and the likes .. bring it on baby.. let them bring it onto Europe and let chips fall where they may. The economic difference between the UK and Portugal is vast. The average net annual salary in Portugal is apparently 11,800 Euro and the unemployment rate is 10.8% with 19% below the poverty line. The average net salary in the UK is $27,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.7% and 15% below the poverty line. The average net salary in Ireland is $31,200 or 29,280 Euro with an unemployment rate of 6.6% and 8% below the poverty line. The average net salary for Greece is 9,303 Euro with an unemployment rate of 23.5% and 35.7% below the poverty line. In economic terms, Portugal is closer to Greece. The UK is a net contributor to the EU which means that it pays in more than it receives. Without the UK paying into the EU economy, those funds will have to come from somewhere else. It is the decades of continual mismanagement of the EU by incompetent and unelected scum (Drunken Juncker et al) in Brussels that resulted in Brexit. Perhaps you are proud of Portugal and all its glittering achievements in the past but they are in the past. Whereas the EU could "afford" to lose Portugal, the situation with the UK is different in that the EU is losing one of its main economies. Perhaps you just don't understand the economic impact of Brexit on the economy of the EU.

There are some in the UK, and the EU, who wish that Brexit never happened. It was obvious to some that it was going to happen but the talking monkeys in the media aren't exactly known for their intellects and it was a complete surprise to these morons. They only ever talked to each other to get "opinions" so Brexit was a complete shock. They were completely unaware of opinions outside their own small clique in much the same was as the Dublin media is completely isolated from and unrepresentative of Irish opinion. The momentum against Brussels had been building for decades and Labour's decision to flood the UK with immigrants in order to destroy the Tory vote was one of the biggest political mistakes of the last few decades. Both EU and non-EU immigration put huge stresses on the UK's housing, medical and social infrastructure and these played a major part in the Brexit vote.


I want to see them at the negotiating table, that is where the fun begins.The one thing that worries people who understand the situation is that a hard Brexit damages the EU more than it does the UK. If things were to go pearshaped, then the Eastern EU countries might find a lot of returning immigrants who no longer have leave to remain in the UK. The impact of that on the economies of these countries would be bad. Indeed emigration has also been important with Portugal and it has the highest emigration rate as a proportion of population in the EU. (https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/observatories/eurwork/articles/working-conditions-labour-market/portugal-high-and-rising-emigration-in-a-context-of-high-but-decreasing-unemployment )

This election in the UK will also have Brexit as a major feature and May needs to shore up her position in the Tory party before the Scots gain the balance of power in the UK's parliament (House of Commons).

Regards...jmcc

Count Bobulescu
22-04-2017, 07:08 PM
AH AH AH AHAHA :D :D :)

so, WAIT!! I am getting a whiff of fear in the post above... there is little I despise as much as the stench of fear in a man ... have you gotten a sense of how much people don't really give a ***** about the Brits leaving the EU in mainland Europe and are you getting a bit panicky thinking how vindictive they may turn on ya (irish n scots)?

you think that continental Europe is Ireland? never in my life i have ever met a continental european who's afraid of the Brits... what are you on about man! grow up... people in mainland Europe are very aware of what the Brits are capable of but I believe we know how to deal w a Brit, the minute you are afraid of them you are toast, you have lost. The way you deal with them is the same way they deal with you. If they are mercenaries, you think and act mercenary, they do understand and value business so you can pursue business dealing. They do NOT however respect servants, the day you act the servant that's the day you've lost your game.

They dominated you guys for centuries because they know your weaknesses, they know how to buy you, your services your servants and your favors...same goes for the Scots (every man has a price..).. That might not quite work in mainland EU bc people have different values, different assessments of what is valuable and important to them.



seems u know little about Portugal after all... if Portuguese people were worried about how fat their pocketbook would get they would have joined the likes of the Spaniards long ago.

Now take a moment to think why Portugal is the oldest country in Europe with the same standing borders for 800 years and think about just how "jeune" Ireland is and then maybe we will dance together on this floor...



1. I agree that you know what Brits are like, what you don't seem to understand is what YOU irish people are like, what is about your weakness(es) that gives them a leg up.

2. idiotic statement regarding sanctions..who the hell is talking about sanctions? you don't seem to understand the difference between business dealing and sanctions. The brits will not take it lying down but i can assure you Continental Europe will not sit there legs open waiting to get f*cked over by them... what you are going to get is down to nitty griddy negotiation and if the Brits will be negotiating from a weak advantage point then they will get the short end of the deal. It is the same deal making as they have done with everyone else all over the world for last couple hundred years. The difference now is, people have learned how to play their game.

And the stench of your panicky fear is reality check as to why you guys have gotten the short end of the deal for so long. And the fact that you are young does not bode well for generations to come as you have been successfully brainwashed by the Brits to think you could do no better than what you've got (from them).



hmm .yea. hmmm.... except that the Portuguese launched global commerce in the mid 1500s so we should know a thing or two about colonialism, imperialism and the likes .. bring it on baby.. let them bring it onto Europe and let chips fall where they may.

I want to see them at the negotiating table, that is where the fun begins.

My only and true concern is about Europe and the fact that what goes on in France in the next couple of weeks could potentially bring it to its knees ... but here's the one thing that Europeans will not forget for the next 100 years: if Europe disintegrates and war erupts on the continent, this time around no one will pin it on the Germans. If that happens, it will be on the backs of the mercenary Brits.

Bravo! You go girl! Tell em a few home truths, then sit back and watch the thin skinned reaction. :D

Count Bobulescu
22-04-2017, 07:11 PM
There's little to plunder and nothing really worthwhile to be gained? The Muslims did invade and hold Portugal for hundreds of years.

The economic difference between the UK and Portugal is vast. The average net annual salary in Portugal is apparently 11,800 Euro and the unemployment rate is 10.8% with 19% below the poverty line. The average net salary in the UK is $27,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.7% and 15% below the poverty line. The average net salary in Ireland is $31,200 or 29,280 Euro with an unemployment rate of 6.6% and 8% below the poverty line. The average net salary for Greece is 9,303 Euro with an unemployment rate of 23.5% and 35.7% below the poverty line. In economic terms, Portugal is closer to Greece. The UK is a net contributor to the EU which means that it pays in more than it receives. Without the UK paying into the EU economy, those funds will have to come from somewhere else. It is the decades of continual mismanagement of the EU by incompetent and unelected scum (Drunken Juncker et al) in Brussels that resulted in Brexit. Perhaps you are proud of Portugal and all its glittering achievements in the past but they are in the past. Whereas the EU could "afford" to lose Portugal, the situation with the UK is different in that the EU is losing one of its main economies. Perhaps you just don't understand the economic impact of Brexit on the economy of the EU.

There are some in the UK, and the EU, who wish that Brexit never happened. It was obvious to some that it was going to happen but the talking monkeys in the media aren't exactly known for their intellects and it was a complete surprise to these morons. They only ever talked to each other to get "opinions" so Brexit was a complete shock. They were completely unaware of opinions outside their own small clique in much the same was as the Dublin media is completely isolated from and unrepresentative of Irish opinion. The momentum against Brussels had been building for decades and Labour's decision to flood the UK with immigrants in order to destroy the Tory vote was one of the biggest political mistakes of the last few decades. Both EU and non-EU immigration put huge stresses on the UK's housing, medical and social infrastructure and these played a major part in the Brexit vote.

The one thing that worries people who understand the situation is that a hard Brexit damages the EU more than it does the UK. If things were to go pearshaped, then the Eastern EU countries might find a lot of returning immigrants who no longer have leave to remain in the UK. The impact of that on the economies of these countries would be bad. Indeed emigration has also been important with Portugal and it has the highest emigration rate as a proportion of population in the EU. (https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/observatories/eurwork/articles/working-conditions-labour-market/portugal-high-and-rising-emigration-in-a-context-of-high-but-decreasing-unemployment )

This election in the UK will also have Brexit as a major feature and May needs to shore up her position in the Tory party before the Scots gain the balance of power in the UK's parliament (House of Commons).

Regards...jmcc

More and more I begin to think you are a Little Englander. Increasingly I see you parroting the same stuff I see from some Brits on other forums.

Exhibit One: Your economic comparison of the UK and Portugal, which may be accurate, but has a big fat zero to do with RNY's primary critique of Irish "doff the cap" subservience. An attempt to divert.

jmcc
22-04-2017, 07:19 PM
More and more I begin to think you are a Little Englander. Increasingly I see you parroting the same stuff I see from some Brits on other forums.Haven't you some other thread to be spamming whilst pretending that you know about matters? It is obvious that you aren't really as well informed as you think when it comes to European politics and the Brexit situation is a major element in the current UK GE. You, like Rny, do not understand the dynamics that led to Brexit and you don't have a clue about the economic impact of Brexit on the UK, the EU or Ireland.


Exhibit One: Your economic comparison of the UK and Portugal, which may be accurate, but has a big fat zero to do with RNY's primary critique of Irish "doff the cap" subservience. An attempt to divert.Guess another one of your crayon jockey attempts at colouring text failed.

To put it in rather simple terms that even you may understand, Brexit is similar to either New York or California deciding to unilaterally withdraw from the US. Brexit has also changed the dynamics of this UK GE and it has created some divisions within various political parties.

Regards...jmcc

random new yorker
22-04-2017, 07:47 PM
There is a reason they've always had the upper hand.... They have simply been a big military and economic power while we have not. When you consider that William the Conquerer took over one of the best ran and richest kingdoms in Europe and then added Norman military might to it we haven't exactly been on a level playing field. It's no coincidence that Britain, France, Spain and Portugal, the bulk of the Roman empire in Europe, all went on to form imperial nations themselves.

Yes we have been guilty of servility but look at how they have dealt with attempted challenges to their power. 1974 Dublin Monaghan bombings possibly the only attack by a western European country on another since WW2.

Britain has historically dealt ruthlessly with non conformity in Ireland.

I agree with you that their military power puts you guys at severe disadvantage right next door (also - in my opinion - the North being one of their physical bases in Ireland complicate matters even more, but there are other ways to challenge great imperial nations.. sometimes i wonder if you guys should be looking at Finland as an example, and what is their secret to keeping the Russians at bay, as your country comes of age into its second century of independence?.

First you need to be energy independent... then you go down the list, and always invite them to sit at the table w you for negotiations, as good neighbors w shared interests do.

Also a fact the European continental nations are not likely to come to your rescue so figuring out how to exploit their (British) weaknesses may be your only chance .... and doing alliances with other European nations might not be such a bad idea ... although i understand that historically and culturally you guys have been primed to think you need the UK .. well, you do if you don't look elsewhere .. and obviously that's just THE way they have used to control your country.

British media from what I can tell is basically a mouthpiece of the government, political propaganda from one side and another.
I can not stand their journalism which is done in a way to first grab your attention emotionally and then deliver the 'news' ... which means they are always pitting one "team" against "another".... [I suppose this is what the folks refer to as 'a bit of footsie' which is enjoyed culturally on those islands - and i acknowledge i may be completely off base on that one]

If you read what some of your youngest voices say here you would think the Brits already got the next gen in the bag .. not exactly clear to me..
seems the youngster doesn't appreciate me saying i see many similarities btw the peoples of those islands and have trouble telling the different groups apart, really how different are you guys from 'them' if they succeeded in colonizing Ireland for how many centuries?

random new yorker
22-04-2017, 07:55 PM
Bravo! You go girl! Tell em a few home truths, then sit back and watch the thin skinned reaction. :D

:) I only had time to read Fraxinus and liked his comment, he did not sound defensive at all, quite the contrary .. didn't have time to read the others yet.. sure there will not be name calling, right? :D

will check back in later

by the way..your folks enjoying the March for Science today?? i have my duties... gotta go now!

random new yorker
22-04-2017, 11:14 PM
I seriously doubt people in Portugal want the tourist sector or the Wine Trade to be hit by Brexit-which they would be, make no mistake about it, if there was a sanctions war-which seems to be what some people in Brussels, who think along a similar vindictive line to yourself, would welcome despite it being Kamikaze politics. I have a friend who lives in North Portugal and his livelihood depends on tourists, many of them British. WTO tariffs of 50% or so could well be imposed on Britain if no agreement is reached by 2019, and they would reciprocate out of spite.

tell your friend in North Portugal that our beaches are not going away and neither is the sun... and that the minute the Brits stop coming to see him/her, others will come, i am happy to give him/her a few hints on how to do it.

and no i am not vindictive nor am i spiteful BUT the Brits are and they are also whinos the minute they realize it ain't going as initially planned... Oh look we want to leave but they can't wait to see our backs?

the difference could be that, unlike you, Brits dont get to walk all over me.

jmcc
22-04-2017, 11:20 PM
the difference could be that, unlike you, Brits dont get to walk all over me.So is Rny pronounced Arnie as in the Terminator or Ronnie as in Reagan? :)

Regards...jmcc

Apjp
23-04-2017, 12:35 AM
There's little to plunder and nothing really worthwhile to be gained? The Muslims did invade and hold Portugal for hundreds of years.

The economic difference between the UK and Portugal is vast. The average net annual salary in Portugal is apparently 11,800 Euro and the unemployment rate is 10.8% with 19% below the poverty line. The average net salary in the UK is $27,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.7% and 15% below the poverty line. The average net salary in Ireland is $31,200 or 29,280 Euro with an unemployment rate of 6.6% and 8% below the poverty line. The average net salary for Greece is 9,303 Euro with an unemployment rate of 23.5% and 35.7% below the poverty line. In economic terms, Portugal is closer to Greece. The UK is a net contributor to the EU which means that it pays in more than it receives. Without the UK paying into the EU economy, those funds will have to come from somewhere else. It is the decades of continual mismanagement of the EU by incompetent and unelected scum (Drunken Juncker et al) in Brussels that resulted in Brexit. Perhaps you are proud of Portugal and all its glittering achievements in the past but they are in the past. Whereas the EU could "afford" to lose Portugal, the situation with the UK is different in that the EU is losing one of its main economies. Perhaps you just don't understand the economic impact of Brexit on the economy of the EU.

There are some in the UK, and the EU, who wish that Brexit never happened. It was obvious to some that it was going to happen but the talking monkeys in the media aren't exactly known for their intellects and it was a complete surprise to these morons. They only ever talked to each other to get "opinions" so Brexit was a complete shock. They were completely unaware of opinions outside their own small clique in much the same was as the Dublin media is completely isolated from and unrepresentative of Irish opinion. The momentum against Brussels had been building for decades and Labour's decision to flood the UK with immigrants in order to destroy the Tory vote was one of the biggest political mistakes of the last few decades. Both EU and non-EU immigration put huge stresses on the UK's housing, medical and social infrastructure and these played a major part in the Brexit vote.

The one thing that worries people who understand the situation is that a hard Brexit damages the EU more than it does the UK. If things were to go pearshaped, then the Eastern EU countries might find a lot of returning immigrants who no longer have leave to remain in the UK. The impact of that on the economies of these countries would be bad. Indeed emigration has also been important with Portugal and it has the highest emigration rate as a proportion of population in the EU. (https://www.eurofound.europa.eu/observatories/eurwork/articles/working-conditions-labour-market/portugal-high-and-rising-emigration-in-a-context-of-high-but-decreasing-unemployment )

This election in the UK will also have Brexit as a major feature and May needs to shore up her position in the Tory party before the Scots gain the balance of power in the UK's parliament (House of Commons).

Regards...jmcc

Portugal seems to me, on the figures mentioned above, and in what I have read elsewhere, to have similar levels of income to the average educated worker in Poland and similar deprivation levels.

RNY's sunny perspective is not shared by my colleague at work who had to sell his Dad's golden clock for food/rent money shortly before he emigrated for Poland 3 years ago.

In fact, while it may be a positive trait of many Portuguese people I have met to see the bright side of things, such a positive view on how little Brexit will affect Portugal seems almost admirable.

The reality is nobody will escape a Brexit trade war fallout. Immigrants would arguably suffer most as the knock on effect of Czechs and Poles being forced from Britain in such a scenario is that these countries will also begin limiting EU immigration themselves as many of their own people return home.

The knock-on effects of the whole situation cannot be easily discounted as F the Brits and F the Irish too. Not by anyone with an honest opinion of the situation anyways.

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 03:38 AM
I seriously doubt people in Portugal want the tourist sector or the Wine Trade to be hit by Brexit-which they would be, make no mistake about it, if there was a sanctions war-which seems to be what some people in Brussels, who think along a similar vindictive line to yourself, would welcome despite it being Kamikaze politics. I have a friend who lives in North Portugal and his livelihood depends on tourists, many of them British. WTO tariffs of 50% or so could well be imposed on Britain if no agreement is reached by 2019, and they would reciprocate out of spite.

hang on .. let's have this conversation again

i think we may have different definitions for vindictiveness and spitefulness ..

what do you mean continental EU is getting into vindictive Kamikaze politics .. trade wars and whatever **** you have no clue about but keep going on ?

Who is being vindictive and spiteful?

The Brits walked out of a Deal.

Period.

There are consequences to that. I honestly can not wait to see what are the options are on the table as far as negotiating deals that will benefit MY side.

Is that NOT the way a Brit thinks?

why do you assume continental EU will sit back an say Oh you are such dahlings and we needsya and here .. off you go with the sweetest end of the deal?

have you gone completely out of your mind? you think that people on the other side of the channel will not seize the opportunity to get better deals for themselves?

Mark my words: I do not give a ***** about the Brits and if they sink or swim .. they better swim for the sake of the common good but anything that gets placed in front of me for judgment will get evaluated to benefit MY side (which ahhnnoohhh... you guessed it ... it Ain't the english side)

(after all my advice and those of my friends did not completely go unnoticed as Lisbon is in the running to get the EU institutions that will have to move out of London... so is Dublin, and Frankfurt and Milan and Paris and Madrid ... but OK a woman at least gets to keep on dreaming - )


Forgive me for being less than enthusiastic about wanting to make Britain feel small. Maybe it is to do with what impact it would have on the jobs of friends and family at home, maybe I just think trade war leads us down a very dangerous road, maybe I am just not as spiteful as someone who mistakenly feels their country would not have to live with the consequences.

as i said above I do not give two sh*ts about the size of Britain: lille england or big great britain? who cares? . ... nor do the other folks I am talking to in mainland Europe. As I explained before last year when they voted themselves out of the EU there was genuine shock .. but i dont see that anymore.. .you delude yourselves if you think that the other side is not going to mind their own 'six' ...

I just read Guy V advice to the Brits Not To believe Theresa May, as in reality the outcome of her 'checkmate June 8th election' will have zero effect on the negotiations for Brexit. She sells that garbage at home ... but on the other side of the channel she is greeted with a cold shoulder and a 'see ya in a bit'...

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 04:18 AM
There's little to plunder and nothing really worthwhile to be gained? The Muslims did invade and hold Portugal for hundreds of years.

ahhhh look at that .. you actually took two minutes off your time to check Portuguese history in the Wiki??

the problem with your short sentence above is words like invade and invasions and invaders ... (this is a mental disorder in the brains of nationalists of all stripes)... the history of ALL humanity at ALL times is fraught with migrations, immigration, emigrations, and movement of peoples from one land to another in ALL cases looking for a better outcome than that which they had before, economically usually, sometimes religious, fleeing wars very often. You can not say that Muslims invaded and HELD Portugal for 700 years to be precise.. the Muslims crossed the channel from North Africa to Modern day Gibraltar/Spain and from there they moved and settled most of Iberia where they lived and mingled happily with Christians and Jews for a very long time before a Mad man had a fight with his Mother and decided he wanted his own patch of land under a Christian flag and only THEN was Portugal 'founded'.


The economic difference between the UK and Portugal is vast. The average net annual salary in Portugal is apparently 11,800 Euro and the unemployment rate is 10.8% with 19% below the poverty line. The average net salary in the UK is $27,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.7% and 15% below the poverty line. The average net salary in Ireland is $31,200 or 29,280 Euro with an unemployment rate of 6.6% and 8% below the poverty line. The average net salary for Greece is 9,303 Euro with an unemployment rate of 23.5% and 35.7% below the poverty line. In economic terms, Portugal is closer to Greece. The UK is a net contributor to the EU which means that it pays in more than it receives. Without the UK paying into the EU economy, those funds will have to come from somewhere else. It is the decades of continual mismanagement of the EU by incompetent and unelected scum (Drunken Juncker et al) in Brussels that resulted in Brexit. Perhaps you are proud of Portugal and all its glittering achievements in the past but they are in the past. Whereas the EU could "afford" to lose Portugal, the situation with the UK is different in that the EU is losing one of its main economies. Perhaps you just don't understand the economic impact of Brexit on the economy of the EU.

good try .. what does this have to do with my conversation above?

the problem is Brexiters thinking the EU can not 'afford' to lose the UK... from what I read people seem quite accepting that Britons voted to Leave and that indeed they will LEAVE. So I dont get your point above. It is possible you guys didnt understand yet that you will in fact LEAVE?

(note: as regards "Brexiters = you guys" -- I am not lumping up Irish folks on this. JMCC this one is for you only bc I think you are as irish as i am.. nein..i think you are english..err that's why i made that remark)



Both EU and non-EU immigration put huge stresses on the UK's housing, medical and social infrastructure and these played a major part in the Brexit vote.

read my response to you as re the Muslims invaders and Portugal as it applies in this case. You and other Brexiters do not seem to understand that immigration is a fact of human life. Any Human Life Anywhere On This Planet. People go to the UK because the pound is highly priced and because people think they will easily find jobs there and because there was f*cking ZERO regulation on temporary working permits, working visas and that sort of stuff in the UK. The bureaucratic burden on people looking for jobs there is zero. Anywhere else in EU they have to register and get Residency cards and this and that.. my sister has lived in the UK for nearly 20 years and never 'needed' to even get a 'resident' card, if she looked for a job and found one - well she HAD a job .. which to me always sounded mysterious and 'mind boggling'

So STOP freaking blaming the EU for your immigration problems.


The one thing that worries people who understand the situation is that a hard Brexit damages the EU more than it does the UK.

.. is that why you/apjp are soooo panicky ... cos the EU will come out a loser? ... :rolleyes:


If things were to go pearshaped, then the Eastern EU countries might find a lot of returning immigrants who no longer have leave to remain in the UK. The impact of that on the economies of these countries would be bad.

why is that bad? ... you forget that those folks that bother their rear end to go look for a better life elsewhere are also pretty entrepreneurial minded .. their return to their home country would be a benefit to them in the long term..

Have you ever left that lille patch of land where you live? (doesnt look like it from where i sit)



This election in the UK will also have Brexit as a major feature and May needs to shore up her position in the Tory party before the Scots gain the balance of power in the UK's parliament (House of Commons).

Regards...jmcc

sure as Guy V says... May can sell her junk at home but when it comes to the EU dealmaking there are 27 others interested in how it will work out for them.

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 04:25 AM
To put it in rather simple terms that even you may understand, Brexit is similar to either New York or California deciding to unilaterally withdraw from the US. Brexit has also changed the dynamics of this UK GE and it has created some divisions within various political parties.

Regards...jmcc


true.. .the EU will be considerably smaller... but so will the UK .. that is the part that y'all seem to want to forget.

Interesting and very entertaining as far as i am concerned.

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 04:36 AM
More and more I begin to think you are a Little Englander. Increasingly I see you parroting the same stuff I see from some Brits on other forums.

pretty sure... this one sounds exactly like my Tory english friend (word by word) it's like they read from a hymn book or something... at least when i talk to Irish people they all kinda sound a little different from one another.. . now from Toryland I get One Voice/Keep It Simple/And Great/Great Britain/America Great ... oh boy .. (brexiter trumpie like no other)


Exhibit One: Your economic comparison of the UK and Portugal, which may be accurate, but has a big fat zero to do with RNY's primary critique of Irish "doff the cap" subservience. An attempt to divert.

yea .. the irish youngsta got offended by my remark (called me names again the kiddo, but i don't mind his fits), the english one, not so fast, he is probably on the side of accepting servility.

jmcc
23-04-2017, 04:57 AM
ahhhh look at that .. you actually took two minutes off your time to check Portuguese history in the Wiki??It was a relatively short history.


the problem with your short sentence above is words like invade and invasions and invaders ... (this is a mental disorder in the brains of nationalists of all stripes)...You should know, as a scientist, that such behaviour is hardcoded in the human brain. It isn't a "mental disorder". That's just simpleton Cultural Marxism.


before a Mad man had a fight with his Mother and decided he wanted his own patch of land under a Christian flag and only THEN was Portugal 'founded'.So Portugal hasn't really been around for that long unlike Ireland which has been around for thousands of years. But this is ancient history for us Irish.


good try .. what does this have to do with my conversation above?Providing the ecnomic basis for the dynamics behind Brexit and why the loss of the UK's economy to the EU is a serious issue. You don't seem to understand the economic impact of the UK moving out of the EU economy and the possible withdrawal of the UK from the Customs Union.


the problem is Brexiters thinking the EU can not 'afford' to lose the UK... from what I read people seem quite accepting that Britons voted to Leave and that indeed they will LEAVE. So I dont get your point above. It is possible you guys didnt understand yet that you will in fact LEAVE? There you go again mixing up Irish people with British people. I was wondering if some Irish-Americans had thought you were a Mexican and that was behind the grudge you seem to have against Irish people.


read my response to you as re the Muslims invaders and Portugal as it applies in this case. You and other Brexiters do not seem to understand that immigration is a fact of human life. Any Human Life Anywhere On This Planet. People go to the UK because the pound is highly priced and because people think they will easily find jobs there and because there was f*cking ZERO regulation on temporary working permits, working visas and that sort of stuff in the UK. The bureaucratic burden on people looking for jobs there is zero. Anywhere else in EU they have to register and get Residency cards and this and that.. my sister has lived in the UK for nearly 20 years and never 'needed' to even get a 'resident' card, if she looked for a job and found one - well she HAD a job .. which to me always sounded mysterious and 'mind boggling' Very simplistic and wrong. You seem to think that because you or your family emigrated to the US, that you are the only one that understands immigration. You are not and you don't seem to show any understanding of the economic or societal effects of immigration on the host society or the immigrant. This is a key issue for what is coming up next.


.. is that why you/apjp are soooo panicky ... cos the EU will come out a loser? ... :rolleyes:More like the trade deals between Ireland and the UK will change and this will impact the Irish economy. The EU economy is also a secondary concern. You seem to have no involvement in EU business or politics so there is no incentive for you to understand what is going on here.


why is that bad? ... you forget that those folks that bother their rear end to go look for a better life elsewhere are also pretty entrepreneurial minded .. their return to their home country would be a benefit to them in the long term..And here we go with the Snowflake approach to "isn't immigration wonderful?". The problem is that many people who emigrate are often unskilled or are low skilled. Thus they would only earn a fraction of what they earn in the UK or in other richer economies if they stayed in their original countries. Emigration acts as an economic safety valve for some economies like those of Eastern Europe and Portugal. Having them repatriated to their original EU countries would be a major economic hit for those countries because the money that they were getting would disappear as would the child benefits that are paid to their families if they are still resident in their original country. Most of them emigrated because there were no well-paying jobs in their home countries. Their position in terms of social housing would also change. You really don't appreciate the nightmarish nature of this bargaining chip for all those involved. These people are not all highly qualified individuals. On the other side, thousands of UK people are legitimately availing of Irish passports so that they can remain EU citizens.


Have you ever left that lille patch of land where you live? (doesnt look like it from where i sit)Frequently. Though people sometimes have difficulty in believing that I am from this planet.


sure as Guy V says... May can sell her junk at home but when it comes to the EU dealmaking there are 27 others interested in how it will work out for them.A joke of a politican from a made-up country that nearly falls apart each time there is a general election. What the UK will try to do is to pick off each country individually and that strategy may work. If May manages to shore up her position in the Tory party with this election and Labour does badly, then the EU negotiators will face a far more daunting set of negotiations. It would not be surprising to see the UK try to form the basis of a North Atlantic trading bloc. However May and the Tories have to get through the election first and it might yet turn out that the Scots will hold the balance of power.

Regards...jmcc

jmcc
23-04-2017, 05:08 AM
yea .. the irish youngsta got offended by my remark (called me names again the kiddo, but i don't mind his fits), the english one, not so fast, he is probably on the side of accepting servility.You seem to mistake good manners for servility. But then Bob, when he is not busy cutting and pasting the work of others, seems to have the same level of understanding of the Brexit and UK General Election as you. And the UK is far from united in this election.

Regards...jmcc

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 05:16 AM
In fact, while it may be a positive trait of many Portuguese people I have met to see the bright side of things, such a positive view on how little Brexit will affect Portugal seems almost admirable.

again, I never said that

that assertion is your own. I never said that Brexit will not affect Portugal as I believe Brexit will affect all 27 in the EU, some more than others.... in case of Portugal, if it is the Tourism section .. it will survive as money will likely just exchange hands, you may get less brits, you get more germans and finns and french..

wine... oh well...i doubt the english will all of a sudden forget how much they love our wine ... if they can't export it to the UK there are other markets to look into ... maybe they'll re-do their business plan, maybe they'll make a better more expensive wine..It's not like Portuguese ppl are not used to hardship and figuring out how you get out of the next one ..


The reality is nobody will escape a Brexit trade war fallout. Immigrants would arguably suffer most as the knock on effect of Czechs and Poles being forced from Britain in such a scenario is that these countries will also begin limiting EU immigration themselves as many of their own people return home.

The knock-on effects of the whole situation cannot be easily discounted as F the Brits and F the Irish too. Not by anyone with an honest opinion of the situation anyways.

Ok so clearly you are concerned about yourself as you hear more and more "F the Brits" you are afraid you will start also hearing "F the irish" (in that you are not very different from any other Brit after all) ... so you've realized in your travels through the EU that what i say here off the cuff (often for fun) about your Islands and the fact that i fail to see the difference btw the individual groups on your "Archipelago" and that ppl have moved on from the Brexit chills into accepting and planing for dealing with an actual Brexit ...you see that others in other countries, speaking different languages, also say the same I have been saying here ...

so as i understand now, all the challenging above is really about you coming to terms with the fear that Poland might return the favor and kick your ass out of there? ... the stench of fear as i said yesterday...

may i remind you that you posted here many many times your support for Brexit and i find that you being one of the young beneficiaries of the greatest open borders the EU has ever seen, you actually deserve what you get (one Pole in return for one Irish? - imagine that..the horror..they send you back home... and there you are projecting thinking that a Pole going back home will surely feel the same way you do?)

Tis what you promoted here for a long time in the lead up to Brexit. So take it as a man. It is also the consequence of your voiced opinions and your decision to support Brexit.

jmcc
23-04-2017, 05:27 AM
The reality is nobody will escape a Brexit trade war fallout. Immigrants would arguably suffer most as the knock on effect of Czechs and Poles being forced from Britain in such a scenario is that these countries will also begin limiting EU immigration themselves as many of their own people return home.It will also destroy the Schengen area and result in the reimposition of borders.


The knock-on effects of the whole situation cannot be easily discounted as F the Brits and F the Irish too. Not by anyone with an honest opinion of the situation anyways.The worst case scenario is a fragmentation of the EU with an inner EU with the richer and an outer EU with the poorer economies. Any moves by the UK towards the restriction of free movement will trigger a lot of economic uncertainty and Germany will not be able to absorb all these new economic migrants. If there are political changes in France and Germany, then Drunken Juncker and his band of morons will be gone. This will be a good thing for the EU. It would not be unthinkable that some of these EUnuchs want Scotland to declare independence or at least move towards a second IndyRef. Sturgeon said that she would proceed with this in a letter to May and that is still a possibility but the SNP will want to maintain its position in this GE. Again, as I've said, the problem for May is if the gamble of destroying Labour does not work out as the Tories plan and creates a Scottish veto in the House of Commons. There are also possible shifts in demographics in NI which could see the Unionists losing MPs. But the Welsh situation could provide a few surprises. There are rumours of Labour losing support there but it may not be a simple Labour to Tory shift. And there's still the LibDems to consider. They had a wipeout that was worse than Labour here in the 2016 GE but that was largely due to a shift towards FF and Independents by floating voters. If they can position themselves, they might pick up some seats from Labour due to the confused pro-Brexit/anti-Brexit situation in Labour.

Regards...jmcc

barrym
23-04-2017, 07:34 AM
Jaysus, it is too early on a Sunday to take in all this stuff ��!

Is the the UK GE thread or the Brexit thread? Maybe merge the two??

Apjp
23-04-2017, 01:33 PM
hang on .. let's have this conversation again

i think we may have different definitions for vindictiveness and spitefulness ..

what do you mean continental EU is getting into vindictive Kamikaze politics .. trade wars and whatever **** you have no clue about but keep going on ?

Who is being vindictive and spiteful?

The Brits walked out of a Deal.

Period.

There are consequences to that. I honestly can not wait to see what are the options are on the table as far as negotiating deals that will benefit MY side.

Is that NOT the way a Brit thinks?

why do you assume continental EU will sit back an say Oh you are such dahlings and we needsya and here .. off you go with the sweetest end of the deal?

have you gone completely out of your mind? you think that people on the other side of the channel will not seize the opportunity to get better deals for themselves?

Mark my words: I do not give a ***** about the Brits and if they sink or swim .. they better swim for the sake of the common good but anything that gets placed in front of me for judgment will get evaluated to benefit MY side (which ahhnnoohhh... you guessed it ... it Ain't the english side)

(after all my advice and those of my friends did not completely go unnoticed as Lisbon is in the running to get the EU institutions that will have to move out of London... so is Dublin, and Frankfurt and Milan and Paris and Madrid ... but OK a woman at least gets to keep on dreaming - )



as i said above I do not give two sh*ts about the size of Britain: lille england or big great britain? who cares? . ... nor do the other folks I am talking to in mainland Europe. As I explained before last year when they voted themselves out of the EU there was genuine shock .. but i dont see that anymore.. .you delude yourselves if you think that the other side is not going to mind their own 'six' ...

I just read Guy V advice to the Brits Not To believe Theresa May, as in reality the outcome of her 'checkmate June 8th election' will have zero effect on the negotiations for Brexit. She sells that garbage at home ... but on the other side of the channel she is greeted with a cold shoulder and a 'see ya in a bit'...

Okay the usual tensions have been ratcheted up between us lol.

Let me explain what I think a bit, while we are here.

Forgive my numbering things but it will make things easier and more readable:

1. I understand why the more avidly europhile of Europeans would begrudge the Brits their decision and want to get a deal that benefits themselves completely and let the Brits deal with it. Each has rival ideas of democracy or whatever they call it. You would be aware that I am far from anglophile and far from europhile.

2. To elaborate on the above, I think if a zero-sum negotiating strategy is taken it will just damage everyone. That is actually Trump's approach to treating people and deal making(have you seen the Apprentice??). Britain is an Arms dealer and a major manufacturer and I doubt the Franco-German/Benelux elites are entirely serious in sharing the rhetoric of Brussels(just this once anyways) which largely seem to stem from Guy Verhofstadt-Jurgen Klopp's evil twin-being peeved at the Brits doing him out of a top job and a misplaced agenda to subsume national parliaments with an empowered European parliament/commission. Juncker also has his centralising own agenda but he will soon be gone.

3. Michel Barnier, the French bureaucrat involved in negotiating for the EU, seems to have a particular agenda which would only damage my country. I do not have to sympathise much with the Brits to realise that following his agenda would damage the livelihoods of many Irish people.

4. We are also angry at the Brits. They want to impose a border again. I am encouraging everyone I know at home to vote SF and vote SF often in an attempt to strengthen the likelihood of a border poll. In fact I now see Sinn Fein as the only game in town for advancing Irish interests, be they in Dublin, Stormont, in dealing with the Brits over the North/Brexit whatever, and in being mildly euroskeptic-i.e. not having form of completely rolling over unlike the 2 main Irish parties. So I actually do agree everyone should advance their own self interests, but I do not think anyone in Ireland will benefit from vindictiveness towards the Brits. Taking advantage of certain things is not the same as ******** someone completely just to teach them a lesson.

5. Well I hope you will have a nice opportunity to work in an EU institution then but GUY V as you call him aligns with a belief that we should punish the Brits. His motives are more personal and vindictive rather than principled is what I feel, given how often he is on the box ranting rather than reasoning.

Finally, Ireland is not best served on the British side nor by being on the fictional 'EU 27' side
but by seeking alliances with Denmark, Sweden and other small EU nations. I am not very confident our govt. realises this(despite the usually hapless Kenny actually meeting the Danish and Dutch PM's this week). I would like to see an election in Ireland now too as so much has changed since this time last year.

Apjp
23-04-2017, 01:35 PM
BTW RNY I do not share JMCC's views on immigration.

I am an immigrant myself as you know.

JMCC speaks a lot of common sense at times but I don't share his skeptical view of that.

I just think you are seeing two sides to this as well, when everyone is out for themselves in reality.

Portugal would probably be best served by allying with Ireland and other small nations for a less extreme and less polarised outcome.

Apjp
23-04-2017, 01:39 PM
ahhhh look at that .. you actually took two minutes off your time to check Portuguese history in the Wiki??

the problem with your short sentence above is words like invade and invasions and invaders ... (this is a mental disorder in the brains of nationalists of all stripes)... the history of ALL humanity at ALL times is fraught with migrations, immigration, emigrations, and movement of peoples from one land to another in ALL cases looking for a better outcome than that which they had before, economically usually, sometimes religious, fleeing wars very often. You can not say that Muslims invaded and HELD Portugal for 700 years to be precise.. the Muslims crossed the channel from North Africa to Modern day Gibraltar/Spain and from there they moved and settled most of Iberia where they lived and mingled happily with Christians and Jews for a very long time before a Mad man had a fight with his Mother and decided he wanted his own patch of land under a Christian flag and only THEN was Portugal 'founded'.



good try .. what does this have to do with my conversation above?

the problem is Brexiters thinking the EU can not 'afford' to lose the UK... from what I read people seem quite accepting that Britons voted to Leave and that indeed they will LEAVE. So I dont get your point above. It is possible you guys didnt understand yet that you will in fact LEAVE?




read my response to you as re the Muslims invaders and Portugal as it applies in this case. You and other Brexiters do not seem to understand that immigration is a fact of human life. Any Human Life Anywhere On This Planet. People go to the UK because the pound is highly priced and because people think they will easily find jobs there and because there was f*cking ZERO regulation on temporary working permits, working visas and that sort of stuff in the UK. The bureaucratic burden on people looking for jobs there is zero. Anywhere else in EU they have to register and get Residency cards and this and that.. my sister has lived in the UK for nearly 20 years and never 'needed' to even get a 'resident' card, if she looked for a job and found one - well she HAD a job .. which to me always sounded mysterious and 'mind boggling'

So STOP freaking blaming the EU for your immigration problems.



.. is that why you/apjp are soooo panicky ... cos the EU will come out a loser? ... :rolleyes:



why is that bad? ... you forget that those folks that bother their rear end to go look for a better life elsewhere are also pretty entrepreneurial minded .. their return to their home country would be a benefit to them in the long term..

Have you ever left that lille patch of land where you live? (doesnt look like it from where i sit)




sure as Guy V says... May can sell her junk at home but when it comes to the EU dealmaking there are 27 others interested in how it will work out for them.

This is what I mean by being willfully disrespectful.

I would agree with Barry M we should try to reduce the animosity in labels all round but things like the above 'You Brits' show why people get annoyed at your posts RNY.

The Republic is not leaving the EU. The North of Ireland may not even leave properly if we are lucky enough. We are not Brits. I will just keep repeating it until you cop on. You should know better by now if you just wish to debate and not get bogged down. It is just crass.

I get the feeling most Irish people that I know anyways want a common sense outcome that will not damage anyone too much. That is largely due to our pragmatic rather than fundamentalist view of the EU.

Apjp
23-04-2017, 01:45 PM
true.. .the EU will be considerably smaller... but so will the UK .. that is the part that y'all seem to want to forget.

Interesting and very entertaining as far as i am concerned.

And many of us want Britain to be smaller as that generally benefits Irish interests.

I wonder if the French vote for Melenchon or Le Pen will you want to punish France for their disloyalty too?

Or is it just the English speaking corner of Europe you have an issue with?

Apjp
23-04-2017, 01:56 PM
again, I never said that

that assertion is your own. I never said that Brexit will not affect Portugal as I believe Brexit will affect all 27 in the EU, some more than others.... in case of Portugal, if it is the Tourism section .. it will survive as money will likely just exchange hands, you may get less brits, you get more germans and finns and french..

wine... oh well...i doubt the english will all of a sudden forget how much they love our wine ... if they can't export it to the UK there are other markets to look into ... maybe they'll re-do their business plan, maybe they'll make a better more expensive wine..It's not like Portuguese ppl are not used to hardship and figuring out how you get out of the next one ..



Ok so clearly you are concerned about yourself as you hear more and more "F the Brits" you are afraid you will start also hearing "F the irish" (in that you are not very different from any other Brit after all) ... so you've realized in your travels through the EU that what i say here off the cuff (often for fun) about your Islands and the fact that i fail to see the difference btw the individual groups on your "Archipelago" and that ppl have moved on from the Brexit chills into accepting and planing for dealing with an actual Brexit ...you see that others in other countries, speaking different languages, also say the same I have been saying here ...

so as i understand now, all the challenging above is really about you coming to terms with the fear that Poland might return the favor and kick your ass out of there? ... the stench of fear as i said yesterday...

may i remind you that you posted here many many times your support for Brexit and i find that you being one of the young beneficiaries of the greatest open borders the EU has ever seen, you actually deserve what you get (one Pole in return for one Irish? - imagine that..the horror..they send you back home... and there you are projecting thinking that a Pole going back home will surely feel the same way you do?)

Tis what you promoted here for a long time in the lead up to Brexit. So take it as a man. It is also the consequence of your voiced opinions and your decision to support Brexit.

This comment is so distorted from what I actually said and meant it barely merits a reply.

I can only say that while I may be younger than you, I have lived in 6 different countries already and speak 5 languages.

I may not be a scientist or live in 'the best country in the world' but I am far from the nationalist or moron you portray me as, and definitely not a Brit. I did not question your intelligence either, at least not of late, merely your honesty, your sources of information at times, and your obvious prejudice towards Irish people. I am fine if you treat me with a fair amount of disrespect/dislike-it is to be expected with some people who have the opposite opinion as often they personalise things.

Poland and Ireland are good friends despite the ********* who run both our countries. I would point out that the govt. in Ireland is practically powerless and unable to pass any new laws due to a hung Dail and in some ways that's a very good thing. Poland's govt. has way too much power and were I a Polish citizen I would be very angry and disgusted at current legal events.

Believe it or not I do not get involved in local politics and I manage not to voice an opinion at work/in the pub on Polish religious doctrine, Polish attitudes towards Arabs or Polish conservatism. I am not the type of immigrant to get involved in local politics(beyond keeping myself informed) if I do not intend to stay somewhere long term, and I am glad of that-I take a look at my Dutch colleagues and see very judgmental people whose attitudes are too harsh towards Poles for me(and while I have learnt the langauge to a fair extent, I am cynical enough towards local norms). Such immigrants are usually too liberal even for me in that anyone who is not as anti religious and anti local norms as them is less informed/educated. One thing I think is obvious to you as to me is there are different types of immigrants. I do not like those who interfere with or judge the habits of a temporary home all that much. I understand why people like you have strong opinions on their long term homes.

Websites like this are a medium for me to discuss and debate.

There is no danger of an Irishman being kicked out of an EU country in a targeted closure. There is every danger of EU countries generally shutting up shop and closing their borders which was my actual point. I support freedom of movement. Ireland has as good a record as any EU country in recent years in allowing, facilitating, even demanding immigration. It seems to me Ireland and Portugal cannot be as different as you say. You are conflating things again, which I can see you like to do half the time to wind people up.

Anyways Poland is just one stop along the road for me :)

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 04:47 PM
This is what I mean by being willfully disrespectful.

I would agree with Barry M we should try to reduce the animosity in labels all round but things like the above 'You Brits' show why people get annoyed at your posts RNY.

The Republic is not leaving the EU. The North of Ireland may not even leave properly if we are lucky enough. We are not Brits. I will just keep repeating it until you cop on. You should know better by now if you just wish to debate and not get bogged down. It is just crass.

I get the feeling most Irish people that I know anyways want a common sense outcome that will not damage anyone too much. That is largely due to our pragmatic rather than fundamentalist view of the EU.

oh my apologies... I'll edit that ... I suppose a good part of me does think of you guys are like ONE group .. but i agree I will be more careful of the words i use in the future out of respect for the irish struggle.

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 05:09 PM
So Portugal hasn't really been around for that long unlike Ireland which has been around for thousands of years. But this is ancient history for us Irish.

oh dear lorde... you could have taken another minute to read the paragraph that came after the Reconquista, no? Muslims in Portugal ..that was nearly 900 years ago :rolleyes: and then add it up tis simple arithmetic ..

just to add another note on historical timing etc.. Lisbon is the second oldest capital city in Europe right after Athens... that is oldest than Paris and i think about 400 or 500 years older than London... err..



There you go again mixing up Irish people with British people. I was wondering if some Irish-Americans had thought you were a Mexican and that was behind the grudge you seem to have against Irish people.

my apologies on that.. i will go back an edit


Very simplistic and wrong. You seem to think that because you or your family emigrated to the US, that you are the only one that understands immigration. You are not and you don't seem to show any understanding of the economic or societal effects of immigration on the host society or the immigrant. This is a key issue for what is coming up next.

errr.. no dear.. my family did not emigrate anywhere...they are all living in Portugal.. i emigrated by chance, because i was offered a good science opportunity in NY and i am very fond of challenges so i hoped on that plane and eventually decided to stay ..


You seem to have no involvement in EU business or politics so there is no incentive for you to understand what is going on here.

errr...wrong. I also own a tiny lille business in Portugal...nothing that i ever had the desire to expand but it could be done...


And here we go with the Snowflake approach to "isn't immigration wonderful?". The problem is that many people who emigrate are often unskilled or are low skilled. Thus they would only earn a fraction of what they earn in the UK or in other richer economies if they stayed in their original countries. Emigration acts as an economic safety valve for some economies like those of Eastern Europe and Portugal. Having them repatriated to their original EU countries would be a major economic hit for those countries because the money that they were getting would disappear as would the child benefits that are paid to their families if they are still resident in their original country. Most of them emigrated because there were no well-paying jobs in their home countries. Their position in terms of social housing would also change. You really don't appreciate the nightmarish nature of this bargaining chip for all those involved. These people are not all highly qualified individuals. On the other side, thousands of UK people are legitimately availing of Irish passports so that they can remain EU citizens.

the snowflake approach.. that is what you think... I never said immigration is wonderful and that it is not fraught w problems... what I said is that despite ppl like you putting up all kinds of barriers to immigration, it is just a basic fact of our Humanity - which you do not seem to understand - and that is: Immigration is a Fact and it will Happen so long as you have wars and large swaths of populations under extreme distress.


Though people sometimes have difficulty in believing that I am from this planet.

ah no... I have no problem believing you belong in another planet


A joke of a politican from a made-up country that nearly falls apart each time there is a general election. What the UK will try to do is to pick off each country individually and that strategy may work.

I agree the UK will try to do this... .succeeding this time around might be another matter...


If May manages to shore up her position in the Tory party with this election and Labour does badly, then the EU negotiators will face a far more daunting set of negotiations. It would not be surprising to see the UK try to form the basis of a North Atlantic trading bloc. However May and the Tories have to get through the election first and it might yet turn out that the Scots will hold the balance of power.

I dont think so... the EU negotiators will not give two sh*ts about what type of support May gathers for herself... that is what she is selling at home... from a EU perspective it does not matter bc people in the continent will want to respect the UK voters decision .. so I think the net result of June 8th in terms of negotiations will be zero (the people have spoken and the populace across the 27 on the other side of the channel heard it loud and clear they want out).

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 05:12 PM
Jaysus, it is too early on a Sunday to take in all this stuff ��!

Is the the UK GE thread or the Brexit thread? Maybe merge the two??

you dont have to read my back-n-forth with these two boyz... they enjoy annoying me

agree that threads could be merged

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 05:35 PM
4. We are also angry at the Brits. They want to impose a border again. I am encouraging everyone I know at home to vote SF and vote SF often in an attempt to strengthen the likelihood of a border poll. In fact I now see Sinn Fein as the only game in town for advancing Irish interests, be they in Dublin, Stormont, in dealing with the Brits over the North/Brexit whatever, and in being mildly euroskeptic-i.e. not having form of completely rolling over unlike the 2 main Irish parties. So I actually do agree everyone should advance their own self interests, but I do not think anyone in Ireland will benefit from vindictiveness towards the Brits. Taking advantage of certain things is not the same as ******** someone completely just to teach them a lesson.



you keep repeating this.. that mainland EUs are vindictive and want to teach the Brits a lesson.. there may be some of that but in reality when negotiations start the people involved will be pragmatic about it. I think that TMay's trailblazing attitude may be the way to gather support at home it is exactly the opposite of what she should be doing if the goal is to get collaboration from EU partners.

Her attitude in Europe turns people off ... it is so bad i am getting comfortable predicting they will not be allowed anywhere near the door...



5. Well I hope you will have a nice opportunity to work in an EU institution then but GUY V as you call him aligns with a belief that we should punish the Brits. His motives are more personal and vindictive rather than principled is what I feel, given how often he is on the box ranting rather than reasoning.

yea that is what YOU feel.


Finally, Ireland is not best served on the British side nor by being on the fictional 'EU 27' side
but by seeking alliances with Denmark, Sweden and other small EU nations. I am not very confident our govt. realises this(despite the usually hapless Kenny actually meeting the Danish and Dutch PM's this week). I would like to see an election in Ireland now too as so much has changed since this time last year.


You can defo learn from the Finns on how to deal with a big intrusive powerhouse right next door...


for the upcoming border deal as regards Brexit you may consider looking into continental EU nations and see how WE do it... there are interesting cases of Buffer zones in those areas, whereby villages in between often have a 'special' relationships with the two neighboring nations, in some cases these villages broker relationships between the two. .. you have the example of Andorra btw SP and FRA, and between PT and Spain we have the Couto Misto up north, and Olivença further south... in those villages ppl have double citizenship and the border is quite fluid.... You need to get the border towns involved and let them decide. If they decide to stay neutral that is good for both (i think).

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 05:59 PM
This is what I mean by being willfully disrespectful.

I would agree with Barry M we should try to reduce the animosity in labels all round but things like the above 'You Brits' show why people get annoyed at your posts RNY.

you Brits was for JMCC cos i think he is one of thems ... :rolleyes: all explained above

i already acknowledged in other posts that i will be mindful of not lumping you up together

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 06:05 PM
There is no danger of an Irishman being kicked out of an EU country in a targeted closure. There is every danger of EU countries generally shutting up shop and closing their borders which was my actual point. I support freedom of movement. Ireland has as good a record as any EU country in recent years in allowing, facilitating, even demanding immigration. It seems to me Ireland and Portugal cannot be as different as you say. You are conflating things again, which I can see you like to do half the time to wind people up.

Anyways Poland is just one stop along the road for me :)

re EU closing their borders let's talk tomorrow after the French have their say...

here's the most recent projection based on real numbers, whatever that means:

Macron: 23.7%
Le Pen: 21.7 %

(next stop hopefully you head west :) )

Apjp
23-04-2017, 06:56 PM
you keep repeating this.. that mainland EUs are vindictive and want to teach the Brits a lesson.. there may be some of that but in reality when negotiations start the people involved will be pragmatic about it. I think that TMay's trailblazing attitude may be the way to gather support at home it is exactly the opposite of what she should be doing if the goal is to get collaboration from EU partners.

Her attitude in Europe turns people off ... it is so bad i am getting comfortable predicting they will not be allowed anywhere near the door...




yea that is what YOU feel.




You can defo learn from the Finns on how to deal with a big intrusive powerhouse right next door...


for the upcoming border deal as regards Brexit you may consider looking into continental EU nations and see how WE do it... there are interesting cases of Buffer zones in those areas, whereby villages in between often have a 'special' relationships with the two neighboring nations, in some cases these villages broker relationships between the two. .. you have the example of Andorra btw SP and FRA, and between PT and Spain we have the Couto Misto up north, and Olivença further south... in those villages ppl have double citizenship and the border is quite fluid.... You need to get the border towns involved and let them decide. If they decide to stay neutral that is good for both (i think).

Well RNY you are talking about borders between separate countries.

The North of Ireland is officially recognised as disputed territory.

A border coming back would be practically illegal, even unconstitutional after the 1998 referendum in the Republic which ratified the doing away of same.

I come from a border county and I cannot see anybody in any part of Ireland supporting this, not even Unionists, and not even the Unionists that supported Brexit(a minority even among Unionists) as they know most of their economic output actually depends on trade with the rest of the island.

Put simply, if the British Army with 20'000 soldiers and the Irish Army and both intelligence and police forces could not contain a military border(when all the railway lines were done away with and most of the main roads blown up or closed), how on Earth will any border even be controlled?

It has no support, will not wash, and just isn't doable. My suspicion is nobody in Ireland would even bother policing it. The cost and pointlessness of even trying means local officials will not even bother imo.

Basically Britain will need to make the Irish Sea the border to have any effective 'border control'.

The Irish situation is similar enough to Cyprus, only because that's the Turks rather than the Brits, the whole world knows the score on that one. An enforced border in Ireland would have similar illegality on numerous scores imo not to mention in violation of the treaties and human rights themselves(Irish people's and indeed Irish residents' right to Freedom of movement across their own island).

jmcc
23-04-2017, 07:45 PM
you Brits was for JMCC cos i think he is one of thems ... :rolleyes: all explained aboveAnd it has been repeatedly explained to you, Rny, that I am Irish but you seem to have gotten a little idea in your mind that I am English and have proceeded accordingly.

Regards...jmcc

Count Bobulescu
23-04-2017, 07:48 PM
I don't think the Brexit and Election threads should be merged. The election will be over in 45 days. Brexit has at least 23 months to run, and covers European as well as British issues.
Now watch the threads get merged! :D

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 10:33 PM
And it has been repeatedly explained to you, Rny, that I am Irish but you seem to have gotten a little idea in your mind that I am English and have proceeded accordingly.

Regards...jmcc

correct... no offense.

(although keep in mind i caint tell the difference anyway :) ...ok .. you could be welsh?)

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 10:34 PM
I don't think the Brexit and Election threads should be merged. The election will be over in 45 days. Brexit has at least 23 months to run, and covers European as well as British issues.
Now watch the threads get merged! :D

:D

random new yorker
23-04-2017, 10:51 PM
Well RNY you are talking about borders between separate countries.

The North of Ireland is officially recognised as disputed territory.

A border coming back would be practically illegal, even unconstitutional after the 1998 referendum in the Republic which ratified the doing away of same.

I come from a border county and I cannot see anybody in any part of Ireland supporting this, not even Unionists, and not even the Unionists that supported Brexit(a minority even among Unionists) as they know most of their economic output actually depends on trade with the rest of the island.

Put simply, if the British Army with 20'000 soldiers and the Irish Army and both intelligence and police forces could not contain a military border(when all the railway lines were done away with and most of the main roads blown up or closed), how on Earth will any border even be controlled?

It has no support, will not wash, and just isn't doable. My suspicion is nobody in Ireland would even bother policing it. The cost and pointlessness of even trying means local officials will not even bother imo.

Basically Britain will need to make the Irish Sea the border to have any effective 'border control'.

The Irish situation is similar enough to Cyprus, only because that's the Turks rather than the Brits, the whole world knows the score on that one. An enforced border in Ireland would have similar illegality on numerous scores imo not to mention in violation of the treaties and human rights themselves(Irish people's and indeed Irish residents' right to Freedom of movement across their own island).



OK .. understood...

but can't you make the entire North a fluid border .. that is where the entire north becomes like one of our border villages in the North of Portugal... they have their local Congress (btw 3 villages) and they vote to decide to which nation-state they will pledge alliance, sometimes they go with Spain and sometimes they go with Portugal (my understanding is they have been doing it for hundreds of years, some very advanced democracy back in those days of monarchic governance, at that time their Congress would meet after a kings death to decide the alliance).... It is cool, after the decision is made all the villagers of the 3 villages place a sign in their front door to let travelers know who they are allied with at the moment....

They are also Tax free and they played a crucial part in 'smuggling' essential goods and people at times of great distress between the 2 nation states.

pluralist
24-04-2017, 03:07 PM
Theresa May has condemned the North to a political no-man’s land from Senator Michael McDowell

http://michaelmcdowell.ie/theresa-may-has-condemned-the-north-to-a-political-no-mans-land/

C. Flower
24-04-2017, 06:43 PM
http://michaelmcdowell.ie/theresa-may-has-condemned-the-north-to-a-political-no-mans-land/

The polarisation of Northern politics was a deliberate design of the GFA. No point in blaming Sinn Fein for it any more than they are to blame for the situation in Iraq.


Lastly, when I wrote here last week about Sinn Féin and Scappaticci, I did not dwell on the reasons why he has escaped the normal IRA retribution for suspected informers. Gerry Moriarty in the Irish Times posed that question and suggested that killing Scappaticci might, by itself, simply draw attention to the extent of informer penetration in the pre-ceasefire IRA.

A slightly different explanation is that Scappaticci has made himself untouchable by taking out “an insurance policy” in the form of a detailed account of the real involvement of the current Sinn Féin leadership in the murder and terror in the years of “armed struggle”, to be released if anything happened to him.

That might better explain the deafening silence of the “Republican movement” in relation to Scappaticci. Just a thought

Does that really wash ? How come Donaldson didn't have an insurance policy ? Or did he, and the person/s trusted to release it have not done so ?

There are many other possibilities, one obvious one being that the SF leadership is heavily compromised by infiltration. McGuinness was quite open about having had contacts with M15/6 that he never told anyone about at the time. How many others ?

Sinn Fein is generally pretty quiet about infiltration.

Apjp
24-04-2017, 10:34 PM
OK .. understood...

but can't you make the entire North a fluid border .. that is where the entire north becomes like one of our border villages in the North of Portugal... they have their local Congress (btw 3 villages) and they vote to decide to which nation-state they will pledge alliance, sometimes they go with Spain and sometimes they go with Portugal (my understanding is they have been doing it for hundreds of years, some very advanced democracy back in those days of monarchic governance, at that time their Congress would meet after a kings death to decide the alliance).... It is cool, after the decision is made all the villagers of the 3 villages place a sign in their front door to let travelers know who they are allied with at the moment....

They are also Tax free and they played a crucial part in 'smuggling' essential goods and people at times of great distress between the 2 nation states.

Basically it will never have an enforceable border, it's just not doable.

God be with the smugglers.

Apjp
24-04-2017, 10:36 PM
The polarisation of Northern politics was a deliberate design of the GFA. No point in blaming Sinn Fein for it any more than they are to blame for the situation in Iraq.



Does that really wash ? How come Donaldson didn't have an insurance policy ? Or did he, and the person/s trusted to release it have not done so ?

There are many other possibilities, one obvious one being that the SF leadership is heavily compromised by infiltration. McGuinness was quite open about having had contacts with M15/6 that he never told anyone about at the time. How many others ?

Sinn Fein is generally pretty quiet about infiltration.

Donaldson was clearly murdered by the State services imo.

I do not think painting Adams or McGuinness as Touts is smart nor credible. They wound up the IRA largely in fear of same certainly.

random new yorker
24-04-2017, 10:45 PM
Originally Posted by random new yorker
OK .. understood...

but can't you make the entire North a fluid border .. that is where the entire north becomes like one of our border villages in the North of Portugal... they have their local Congress (btw 3 villages) and they vote to decide to which nation-state they will pledge alliance, sometimes they go with Spain and sometimes they go with Portugal (my understanding is they have been doing it for hundreds of years, some very advanced democracy back in those days of monarchic governance, at that time their Congress would meet after a kings death to decide the alliance).... It is cool, after the decision is made all the villagers of the 3 villages place a sign in their front door to let travelers know who they are allied with at the moment....

They are also Tax free and they played a crucial part in 'smuggling' essential goods and people at times of great distress between the 2 nation states.



Basically it will never have an enforceable border, it's just not doable.

God be with the smugglers.

Precisely my point. In the scenario I pointed out above there is NO border (other than the irish sea btw), it is borderless, that is why i defined it as FLUID...


also the Tax free privileges is good for business, they would become like a revolving door btw ROI and UK and everyone would be happy, good for ROI, good for them and (not bad) for the UK... (looks like they are pretty powerless right now if i am reading ppl comments/linked articles right)


(craze i know! but has been done)

pluralist
25-04-2017, 12:55 AM
Given that both the responses of forum posters so far are focusing only on the last bit, the afterthought, from McDowell's piece, I'm going to take the liberty of quoting the bulk of it:


Theresa May has condemned the North to a political no-man’s land

In case you missed it, Theresa May indicated almost complete contempt for the people of Northern Ireland and their interests when she decided on her snap election for June 8th. Orthodox analysis of her decision features the weakness of Corbyn-led Labour, the need to free herself from the grip of Tory Eurosceptic wild men (the MPs described by John Major as “bastards”) and the possibility that Labour would find a new, electable leader in the aftermath of a poor showing in the UK local elections in May.

Although Tory politicians like to parade their great affection for the Union, their actions have brought that Union to its most parlous state in centuries.

With no power-sharing executive in the North, and no Assembly there either, Northern Ireland is politically decapitated in the run up to the General Election in June. Voting pacts on each side of the Orange-Green divide will quite likely transform the “first past the post” General Election into a traditional sectarian headcount. One of the great ironies of the Sinn Féin abstention policy is that any chance of the non-Unionist voters in Northern Ireland having any say (or perhaps even a vital swing) in Westminster deliberations on the future of Northern Ireland and its future relationship with the Republic is reduced by every Sinn Féin success in the General Election.

While Nicola Sturgeon can speak for Scotland and the SNP can use its votes in Scotland’s interests, Sinn Fein is struck dumb in political terms by its abstentionist policy, as are all those elect Sinn Féin candidates.

Theresa May put little or no value on reinstating power-sharing in Northern Ireland when she performed a spectacular U-turn to seek a June election. There is no prospect now of the DUP and Sinn Féin resolving the slightly irrelevant disputes that divide them until the autumn. This means that the “cash for ash” affair, leapt on by Adams as a pretext to end power-sharing, has become the catalyst for a process of marginalising the interests of Northern Ireland (and consequently the whole of Ireland) in the political calculus of the Westminster Establishment.

If, as appears likely, the current impasse between the DUP and Sinn Fein is not resolved this side of the Marching Season, the status of Northern Ireland as an irrelevant backwater in the United Kingdom is yet again underlined. Just as the Unionists were left alone to misrule that backwater for a half century from 1922 to 1972, on condition that it did not trouble the UK as a whole, the real Tory contempt for Norther Ireland is underlined by their seeming indifference to the crisis that they have created for its people by pursuing Brexit and leaving the European Union.

The ridiculous thing about Tory backwoodsmen MPs is that their rhetoric about the unity of the United Kingdom is in direct proportion to their support for a hard Brexit. Very few of the “hard Brexiteers” really give a fig for the interests and prosperity of the people of Northern Ireland or even for the long-term interests of unionist farmers and milk producers.

Any general election campaign lasting six to seven weeks is fraught with risk for early favourites. So much can change in the mood of the electorate, including the onset of monumental electoral fatigue. While it does not now appear that anything can happen to put Jeremy Corbyn into 10 Downing Street, that does not mean that the Tories’ massive opinion poll lead might not fall victim to a general feeling of anger and resentment against the ruling establishment.

In real terms, a huge number of English households’ incomes have declined in the last ten years. For millions of English voters north of the line from the Severn to the Wash, there is little or no light at the end of the tunnel of Tory austerity.

Balancing the British budget by sustained lopping of public expenditure offers practically nothing to huge swathes of English society who watch with their noses pressed against a freezing window the grotesque process whereby the rich and the fat cats grow wealthier while they themselves must go without.

If Theresa May can carry off an electoral landslide in spite of the same anti-establishment dissatisfaction that led to Brexit, she will be lucky. The old adage that “a referendum is a process by which you get an answer you didn’t expect to a question you didn’t ask” may yet apply to a general election which the Tories seek to convert into a referendum on Jeremy Corbyn.

UKIP, in my view, is finished, its purpose served. Its voters were never pro-establishment; they are natural voices of opposition. The Lib-Dems could easily out-perform present expectations on foot of favourable local election results in May. The Labour vote may, despite Corbyn, prove more resilient over the next six weeks than Tory head office has calculated. It is not entirely impossible that Theresa May might simply end up roughly where she is, if not worse off.

If Theresa May fails to greatly increase the number of Tory MPs on June 8th, she may in retrospect turn out to have weakened her own position and to have heated up the conflict on Europe within the Tory party.

In any event, a Tory landslide could have two possible outcomes; a strengthened Prime Minister with enough support to carry a very soft Brexit through the House of Commons, or else a “tails up” Tory party in which the hard Brexiteer “bastards” are more numerous and more demanding and less tolerant of any compromise with the EU.

It is only when you consider the studied indifference of the Tories towards Northern Ireland and the silliness of Sinn Féin having brought down power-sharing on the “cash for ash” issue (which they did with full, conscious knowledge of the impending Brexit crisis) that the enormity of the Sinn Féin miscalculation becomes apparent.

If they continue with their intransigence and bring about a new set of Assembly elections in the autumn, Sinn Féin may increase their Assembly seats by two or three but may well find that the DUP increase their share of the seats by four or five. Northern politics would have become more polarised and more irrelevant after this wasted year of playing “political chicken”.

barrym
25-04-2017, 06:09 AM
Given that both the responses of forum posters so far are focusing only on the last bit, the afterthought, from McDowell's piece, I'm going to take the liberty of quoting the bulk of it:

My reaction? Who cares about the political views of a multi-failure blowhard?

Shaadi
25-04-2017, 11:04 AM
Given that both the responses of forum posters so far are focusing only on the last bit, the afterthought, from McDowell's piece, I'm going to take the liberty of quoting the bulk of it:

It's a rambling piece.. The usual SF bad line ( note the name check on Adams) how its all their fault from him despite the fact that practically all the parties wanted Arlene taken down and it was they and public opinion which forced SF's hand.

Sturgeon with her huge mandate in Scotland was told to take a hike by May in regards to Scotland's input into Brexit negotiations as were the Welsh Assembly.

NIs negotiating strength lies in its ability to threaten chaos in NI not in its ability to yap in Westminster.

As usual MC'D and Co fail to understand the Brexit vote, it wasn't an anti-establishment vote from the less well. It was a nationalist vote from the shires and elsewhere. A vote for sovereignty and reduced immigration, end of story.

I'd have to analyse the potential impact of a Lib Dem revival on Tory numbers but it's highly unlikely to be able to derail the Brexit nationalism that's propelling the Tories in the polls.

If Tory/Lib Dem cuts couldn't have derailed the Tories in pre-Brexit 2015 then they're hardly going to do it in a Brexit fired up UK now at war with the Germans and French.

He hasn't got a clue about the British.

Shaadi
25-04-2017, 11:15 AM
Precisely my point. In the scenario I pointed out above there is NO border (other than the irish sea btw), it is borderless, that is why i defined it as FLUID...


also the Tax free privileges is good for business, they would become like a revolving door btw ROI and UK and everyone would be happy, good for ROI, good for them and (not bad) for the UK... (looks like they are pretty powerless right now if i am reading ppl comments/linked articles right)


(craze i know! but has been done)

The border is enforceable ( was enforced before) , very difficult to manage politically but where there's tax revenue at stake Govts will always find a way to levy that tax.

Other possible arrangements are very hard to implement politically. Unionists would rather starve in the short term than cede much in terms of North - South integration.

C. Flower
25-04-2017, 11:27 AM
It's a rambling piece.. The usual SF bad line ( note the name check on Adams) how its all their fault from him despite the fact that practically all the parties wanted Arlene taken down and it was they and public opinion which forced SF's hand.

Sturgeon with her huge mandate in Scotland was told to take a hike by May in regards to Scotland's input into Brexit negotiations as were the Welsh Assembly.

NIs negotiating strength lies in its ability to threaten chaos in NI not in its ability to yap in Westminster.

As usual MC'D and Co fail to understand the Brexit vote, it wasn't an anti-establishment vote from the less well. It was a nationalist vote from the shires and elsewhere. A vote for sovereignty and reduced immigration, end of story.

I'd have to analyse the potential impact of a Lib Dem revival on Tory numbers but it's highly unlikely to be able to derail the Brexit nationalism that's propelling the Tories in the polls.

If Tory/Lib Dem cuts couldn't have derailed the Tories in pre-Brexit 2015 then they're hardly going to do it in a Brexit fired up UK now at war with the Germans and French.

He hasn't got a clue about the British.

I know the UK well and visited both the shires and a de-industrialised, peripheral area in the last year. Both areas voted for Brexit.

Count Bobulescu
25-04-2017, 06:01 PM
Small swings in either direction could have a big effect, or zero, if they cancel each other out.........


With June’s snap election in mind, May’s Conservative Party is concentrating its resources on pro-Brexit constituencies. Of the 60 districts that are most winnable from the main opposition Labour Party, two-thirds voted to leave the EU, according to Bloomberg’s Eddie Buckle (http://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/9464037.10376/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9wb2xpdGljcy9hcn RpY2xlcy8yMDE3LTA0LTI0L2JyZXhpdC1kaXN0cmljdHMtaW4t dG9yeS1zaWdodHMtYXMtbWF5LXNlZWtzLWluY3JlYXNlZC1tYW pvcml0eT9jbXBpZD1CQkJYVDA0MjUxN19CSVomdXRtX21lZGl1 bT1lbWFpbCZ1dG1fc291cmNlPW5ld3NsZXR0ZXImdXRtX3Rlcm 09MTcwNDI1JnV0bV9jYW1wYWlnbj1icmV4aXQ/5508cf323b35d034698ee8aeB0cb4b744).
May’s early campaigning reflects that strategy, with visits so far to target constituencies thgat voted heavily for Brexit and where the Tories need a swing in voting of less than 6 percent.
https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/proxy/czPghppO98Oy8K6MRCuxyl6B2x_WqB0hBnyGEuMdo_5YO9Y3J2 lSx3nds7cXoUdq2ZjGOzO04ZJzucRFLcY4iyo4iMWYjL9WV6va o79xvjw1xB025W4HNzSRr0FEPlNg=s0-d-e1-ft#https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iUJnrT_XcMtg/v1/-1x-1.pngIn some places though, the Conservatives will be on the defensive. The pro-EU Liberal Democrats are seeking to recapture six constituencies they lost to the Tories in 2015 and which voted “Remain” in 2016. The Lib Dems need a swing of six points or less to take them back.
https://ci6.googleusercontent.com/proxy/GxbzUr1pj6v57GtOPNy-30kG7sLaYmbezEGTsh1-ZObmbN7MQp7KEz5whwFlZ4qxjaFhq8ChmXz-wt28M7K6n-6zhHqQovu7awRG2LguFQTnuPzambMoADg1CaGaihQc=s0-d-e1-ft#https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iclypZzhuhNI/v1/-1x-1.pngOn the campaign trail, Labour is pledging to tear up May’s Brexit strategy (http://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/9464037.10376/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9wb2xpdGljcy9hcn RpY2xlcy8yMDE3LTA0LTI0L2xhYm91ci1wbGVkZ2VzLXRvLWtl ZXAtZXUtc2luZ2xlLW1hcmtldC1iZW5lZml0cy1hZnRlci1icm V4aXQ_Y21waWQ9QkJCWFQwNDI1MTdfQklaJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09 ZW1haWwmdXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV90ZXJtPT E3MDQyNSZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249YnJleGl0/5508cf323b35d034698ee8aeB630e74a7) if it wins the election and instead focus on keeping the benefits of the EU’s single market and customs union. In a speech today, its Brexit spokesman Keir Starmer will also pledge to safeguard environmental and workplace protections.

Count Bobulescu
25-04-2017, 06:12 PM
Britain's UKIP Takes Anti-Islam Turn Ahead Of General Election (https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=http://www.newsweek.com/british-general-election-ukip-islam-integration-policies-burqa-ban-fgm-islamic-588575&ct=ga&cd=CAEYByoUMTU2Nzc4NzgxNTk4MTYzNDQ4MDYyGmQ1MTcyNjB mMjIxZDg1ODE6Y29tOmVuOlVT&usg=AFQjCNGoaM29UmhQfMZX7yAcU2KW1qiAaw)Newsweek

DCon
03-05-2017, 09:33 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-7qsjGWAAIeJIA.jpg

barrym
04-05-2017, 05:12 AM
As if she needed it, May savages the EC, to attract even more leavers.

dedogs
04-05-2017, 12:40 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C-7qsjGWAAIeJIA.jpg

did you ever see thir labor party leader corbin on the telly mate???? hes even thicker than kenny!!!!

DCon
20-05-2017, 09:28 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DATC31GXoAA_55I.jpg

Apjp
22-05-2017, 08:36 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DATC31GXoAA_55I.jpg

Big change if this is borne out. Even if Corbyn loses in that case, increasing the Labour vote in such a hostile and Tory media controlled environment secures him more time at the helm.

jmcc
22-05-2017, 06:48 PM
Big change if this is borne out. Even if Corbyn loses in that case, increasing the Labour vote in such a hostile and Tory media controlled environment secures him more time at the helm.Seems like partial data and only England data at that. The reemergence of the Tory party as the Unionist party in Scotland with Labour having being wiped out is an important trend. Wales also warrants attention in that Labour is losing support there too and Plaid Cymru seems to be gaining based on the LEs.

Regards...jmcc

barrym
23-05-2017, 06:22 AM
Yougov cover all of the UK, does it not? May has made a balls of a few things already. Even a Tory media is hesitating.

I get the impression that, even with Corbyn at the wheel, there is a reaction against Tory arrogance. It will reduce the Tory majority, may save Corbyn, temporarily.

Personally, I like Corbyn's ideas, privatisation has been a disaster.

Fraxinus
23-05-2017, 07:08 AM
Last night's events will probably swing things in favour of the Tories. Corbyn was criticised for not condemning the IRA at the weekend. The campaign will be Tories tough on terror... Corbyn supports terror.

Saoirse go Deo
23-05-2017, 09:11 AM
I expect May to go full Trump.

DCon
25-05-2017, 09:28 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DAs28sUXkAILs0-.jpg

Apjp
26-05-2017, 10:03 PM
Labour support growing rapidly despite the media's attempts to portray Corbyn as an IRA fanatic.

As JMCC says though, the geography of that support will be very important, largely due to the voting system itself...

They have not reached 38% support since October 2014.

barrym
27-05-2017, 06:09 AM
Despite the general down on Corbyn, the electorate are pissed off with May and her snide stuff. However, the Cons will win, but without the big majority they wanted. This will mean Ms May will have to go for hard brexit to satisfy the little englanders. Long term the UK is doomed, Scotland will work to leave and NI will find itself economically part of the republic. Pity the Welsh.....

Donal Og
27-05-2017, 11:57 AM
Groan...I suspect you are right. I don't take any pleasure in this death spiral. I have friends and family in England and Wales. Besides Brexit will wreck our agri sector. May wants to be Thatcher 2.0. But in a year or so she could more resemble Major.

Shaadi
27-05-2017, 05:20 PM
Despite the general down on Corbyn, the electorate are pissed off with May and her snide stuff. However, the Cons will win, but without the big majority they wanted. This will mean Ms May will have to go for hard brexit to satisfy the little englanders. Long term the UK is doomed, Scotland will work to leave and NI will find itself economically part of the republic. Pity the Welsh.....

By doomed what do you mean? And I don't mean losing Scotland or sharing NI.

For sure they're in for a few ropey years as they adjust to the reality that they can't just snap their fingers and magic up trade deals but everything goes in cycles.

A dose of reality will mean a harsh adjustment but they will eventually adjust ( we did) and have their own currency to soften the pain of the adjustment.

random new yorker
27-05-2017, 07:44 PM
if i may venture an opinion at this point ... (for record keeping)

i guess i would go with "little England will figure out a way of keeping the Scots under their thumb"
i dont think they can let go of Scotland after all they have all the nukes up there and the Queen owns a good part of the land, correct? (the fate of the Scots will be interesting to follow)

and down the line as they find themselves in a position of a lot LESS power (depending on current alliance w US) they will continue their age old 'divide and conquer' and set up other alliances to get back in the game.

if that doesn't work they will 'sell whatever spiel' back to their lille Englanders to rejoin the EU 'on their terms' :rolleyes:

(and in the process you guys might get a United Federation on your Island)

Shaadi
27-05-2017, 09:07 PM
if i may venture an opinion at this point ... (for record keeping)

i guess i would go with "little England will figure out a way of keeping the Scots under their thumb"
i dont think they can let go of Scotland after all they have all the nukes up there and the Queen owns a good part of the land, correct? (the fate of the Scots will be interesting to follow)

and down the line as they find themselves in a position of a lot LESS power (depending on current alliance w US) they will continue their age old 'divide and conquer' and set up other alliances to get back in the game.

if that doesn't work they will 'sell whatever spiel' back to their lille Englanders to rejoin the EU 'on their terms' :rolleyes:

(and in the process you guys might get a United Federation on your Island)

Money, money, money. The Scots and NI currently have the Bank Of England to guarantee their old age pensions and the NHS. That guarantee has to be no longer believable for Scotland or NI to summon up the courage to jump ship.

The Tories who were on a roll ideologically want to dismantle the welfare state. The reality of that ( due to May's dementia tax screw up) has woken up the sleepwalking public.

Things are most definitely more up in the air than previously.

random new yorker
28-05-2017, 01:44 AM
Money, money, money. The Scots and NI currently have the Bank Of England to guarantee their old age pensions and the NHS. That guarantee has to be no longer believable for Scotland or NI to summon up the courage to jump ship.

what i find strange about the whole thing is that people really put all rationality aside..I have to look at recent numbers but most European countries have an 'unsustainable' aging population UNLESS they allow immigration in and I think the UK is one of these cases as well .. taking care of the aging population at current pace/expenses is only possible if the working base is large enough, if people are not having enough babies then you need to import people...

in the past couple of weeks i saw some NHS numbers for hiring nurses (i think an article in Nature mag) and from June 2016 until now the number of foreign applicants for these jobs in the UK (which were understaffed) declined 90%. Not only are they actively losing doctors and nurses that started looking to settle elsewhere as the numbers of new applicants are not even enough to replace those leaving.

Some numbers here from the Financial Times (https://www.ft.com/content/81b25aa0-4129-11e7-9d56-25f963e998b2)

Japan also has a huge problem in that regard ..


The Tories who were on a roll ideologically want to dismantle the welfare state. The reality of that ( due to May's dementia tax screw up) has woken up the sleepwalking public.

Things are most definitely more up in the air than previously.

yes i also noticed that T.May body language in the NATO summit was a lot more subdued and a bit detached (from the other crowd and also from trump).. i suppose at some point domestic reality hits 10 Downing St and as she is trying to deal with the dementia tax fiasco + Manchester and she might have gotten a cold shoulder in the mainland (or felt the French love for the Germans?) ..

(anyway what a heartless tax to propose!)

random new yorker
28-05-2017, 02:05 AM
(ah and i found this -which may explain May's subdued look recently.
if only Corbyn would shave his beard now he might even be able to go for a tie. rny )

MAYBE it is an anomaly. Maybe it was an odd sample. Maybe respondents were in a strange mood, following the Manchester terrorist attack. But a poll published yesterday evening will nonetheless have given a few Conservative election strategists a sleepless night.

The survey, carried out by YouGov for the Times, suggests that the Tories’ lead over Labour has narrowed to only five points. At the beginning of the election campaign, barely a month ago, some polls had the Conservatives more than 20 points ahead.

@ the Economist (http://www.economist.com/blogs/speakerscorner/2017/05/landslide-slipping-away?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/?fsrc=scn/fb/te/bl/ed/isthelandslideslippingawayapolltosendachilldownthe resamaysspine)

pluralist
28-05-2017, 03:56 AM
(ah and i found this -which may explain May's subdued look recently.


Tut tut.

Can we cool it with the misogyny?

Apjp
28-05-2017, 03:42 PM
if i may venture an opinion at this point ... (for record keeping)

i guess i would go with "little England will figure out a way of keeping the Scots under their thumb"
i dont think they can let go of Scotland after all they have all the nukes up there and the Queen owns a good part of the land, correct? (the fate of the Scots will be interesting to follow)

and down the line as they find themselves in a position of a lot LESS power (depending on current alliance w US) they will continue their age old 'divide and conquer' and set up other alliances to get back in the game.

if that doesn't work they will 'sell whatever spiel' back to their lille Englanders to rejoin the EU 'on their terms' :rolleyes:

(and in the process you guys might get a United Federation on your Island)

As long as the long term consequences are better chance of a United Ireland I guess we should all be happy.

I am just hoping Corbyn gets a lot closer than he was expected to get. For the health of the left on a European and Irish level, we need him to remain as leader of the Labour party. There is also historical precedent of Labour leaders in the seventies and eighties losing elections by a small or smaller majority than the prior election but remaining in place. Harold Wilson even managed to win power back 4 years after losing it in the mid seventies, but the modern media nonsense seems to be 'lose one election and call for his head'. The reality is, given where Corbyn started from, any net gain in seats or smaller loss than expected is a good thing.

Some opinion polls this week put the Tory majority at just 2 seats, which would be a perfect outcome for Corbyn and a disaster for May, as it would mean she has no power and will be forced back into some sort of agreement with the Lib Dems or else forced to spend every single Parliament vote late into the night in order to pass laws.

The best possible outcome for Labour seems to be a reduced Tory majority but it would still take a miracle, given the amount of days of propaganda against 'Corbyn the terrorist' and Labour still to come.

random new yorker
28-05-2017, 04:38 PM
Tut tut.

Can we cool it with the misogyny?

if you find the term used in that context misogynistic try replacing it with 'less bully-ish' or less 'full-o-sh*te' as we like to say in NY

random new yorker
28-05-2017, 04:50 PM
As long as the long term consequences are better chance of a United Ireland I guess we should all be happy.

i guess that would be a positive outcome by Irish metrics but I am not sure, do people in the ROI want a United Ireland?

reading you guys here sometimes it doesn't sound so, or I just don't get the nuances, JMCC was explaining to me the other day that you guys don't have a one word for Yes and No in the irish language

Shaddi does not seem to think this is possible anytime soon and i kind of trust his opinion ..



I am just hoping Corbyn gets a lot closer than he was expected to get. For the health of the left on a European and Irish level, we need him to remain as leader of the Labour party. There is also historical precedent of Labour leaders in the seventies and eighties losing elections by a small or smaller majority than the prior election but remaining in place. Harold Wilson even managed to win power back 4 years after losing it in the mid seventies, but the modern media nonsense seems to be 'lose one election and call for his head'. The reality is, given where Corbyn started from, any net gain in seats or smaller loss than expected is a good thing.

it is a bit difficult for me to make a informed comment on this but from the outside he just looks weak and frail, in a situation like this you need the equivalent of a Macron for the left, and at the very least someone PLEASE just advise the man to shave that beard!


Some opinion polls this week put the Tory majority at just 2 seats, which would be a perfect outcome for Corbyn and a disaster for May, as it would mean she has no power and will be forced back into some sort of agreement with the Lib Dems or else forced to spend every single Parliament vote late into the night in order to pass laws.

The best possible outcome for Labour seems to be a reduced Tory majority but it would still take a miracle, given the amount of days of propaganda against 'Corbyn the terrorist' and Labour still to come.

hehe yes :) i was hoping May would take a substantial loss but i know that is not likely to happen--although her body language is telling me she/they are worried - it might not turn out as initially planned.

Apjp
28-05-2017, 06:48 PM
i guess that would be a positive outcome by Irish metrics but I am not sure, do people in the ROI want a United Ireland?

reading you guys here sometimes it doesn't sound so, or I just don't get the nuances, JMCC was explaining to me the other day that you guys don't have a one word for Yes and No in the irish language

Shaddi does not seem to think this is possible anytime soon and i kind of trust his opinion ..




it is a bit difficult for me to make a informed comment on this but from the outside he just looks weak and frail, in a situation like this you need the equivalent of a Macron for the left, and at the very least someone PLEASE just advise the man to shave that beard!



hehe yes :) i was hoping May would take a substantial loss but i know that is not likely to happen--although her body language is telling me she/they are worried - it might not turn out as initially planned.

One opinion Poll this evening has it as 43-36 in the Tories favour, and another has it as 44-32(the gap is certainly less than 10 points imo and it seems Labour are winning votes every day).

My guess is Labour will get over 35% of the vote and if we are lucky the difference will be decided by undecided voters, newly registered voters of which 250'000 are young people, and if the gap between both parties is not massive both of them could be in a position to form a govt.

See the first 1974 election for what I mean. It has happened before where both parties had more or less the same number of seats but one of them(Labour under Harold Wilson) was able to form a govt. on the basis that the other, the outgoing govt., couldn't.

Not a big fan of beards myself but Corbyn is like Gerry Adams in that respect, it's lifelong.

pluralist
28-05-2017, 09:07 PM
https://twitter.com/SocialistVoice/status/868789734117703680/photo/1

barrym
29-05-2017, 06:07 AM
Doomed = no longer a coherent entity. I'm not sure it ever was to be honest, the "regions" are a handy word, but didn't mean much.

Agreed they are in for a bad period, it will affect the remoter parts. I think it may permanently damage some areas, leaving only tourism.

barrym
29-05-2017, 06:14 AM
Just a question - has there been any "improvement" in UK polling techniques? If not, how much credence? If so, what evidence?

Best possibility, imo, is that Labour will do better than the original polling. pre-electon announcement.

Shaadi
29-05-2017, 05:28 PM
i guess that would be a positive outcome by Irish metrics but I am not sure, do people in the ROI want a United Ireland?

reading you guys here sometimes it doesn't sound so, or I just don't get the nuances, JMCC was explaining to me the other day that you guys don't have a one word for Yes and No in the irish language

Shaddi does not seem to think this is possible anytime soon and i kind of trust his opinion ..




it is a bit difficult for me to make a informed comment on this but from the outside he just looks weak and frail, in a situation like this you need the equivalent of a Macron for the left, and at the very least someone PLEASE just advise the man to shave that beard!



hehe yes :) i was hoping May would take a substantial loss but i know that is not likely to happen--although her body language is telling me she/they are worried - it might not turn out as initially planned.

Just on the position of the whole UI thing.

I'd say that it's a bit like the Iron Curtain, one day it seemed that the curtain would never fall and shortly afterwards it was gone.

IMO in NI the nationalist community are waiting to get all the ducks in a row before they push hard for a UI. At the start of the 1970s they were very much in the minority in NI. Within a few short years they'll be an unstoppable majority as regards deciding their own future and they can afford to be magnanimous. In the 1970s they faced ethnic cleansing as they were burned out of their streets and battered with the local Unionist Govt's blessing.

I believe there's very much an element in the nationalist psyche of not wishing to spook the Unionists before the Unionists have accepted that the numbers game is up and that a UI is upon them.

Events such as Brexit are moving a UI forward more quickly than planned, but NI nationalists are taking it in their stride and still biding their time until they're ready to win a UI poll.

dedogs
30-05-2017, 02:05 PM
Labour support growing rapidly despite the media's attempts to portray Corbyn as an IRA fanatic.

As JMCC says though, the geography of that support will be very important, largely due to the voting system itself...

They have not reached 38% support since October 2014.

the brother in cambridge was tellin me that corbin was sayin the manchester murders were down to the brits themselves for invadin afganistan and lads arent takin it well over there....

DCon
30-05-2017, 09:15 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBGqG2cXoAA0xWX.jpg

Apjp
30-05-2017, 10:27 PM
the brother in cambridge was tellin me that corbin was sayin the manchester murders were down to the brits themselves for invadin afganistan and lads arent takin it well over there....

My only advice to you is to read more and read what people actually say. Your brother reads too many Tory owned newspapers from what you say.

Apjp
30-05-2017, 10:30 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBGqG2cXoAA0xWX.jpg

The SNP and SDLP would be needed in such a situation.

We can't lose can we from an Irish point of view if that were to come about.

Would serve the Unionist minority right to have the shoe on the other foot for a change too. They abused their influence countless times with Tory govt's against people in Ulster.

pluralist
30-05-2017, 11:30 PM
This is hilarious.

I would be surprised if Corbyn pulls this off, but even Tory journalists on the Times are openly saying that the campaign May is running is so crap that she doesn't deserve to win it.

barrym
31-05-2017, 06:55 AM
I asked a question a few posts back about UK polling quality, following the Brexit poll questioning. Do people really believe the Tories won't have a majority?

C. Flower
31-05-2017, 10:59 AM
I asked a question a few posts back about UK polling quality, following the Brexit poll questioning. Do people really believe the Tories won't have a majority?

The polls conflict.

dedogs
31-05-2017, 01:02 PM
My only advice to you is to read more and read what people actually say. Your brother reads too many Tory owned newspapers from what you say.

no mate its not the papers its the lads hes workin with sayin corbins a **** over that....

Saoirse go Deo
31-05-2017, 02:16 PM
I have to say that Corbyn comes across as a genuine decent person and very personable too in his media appearances.

Imagine how well they would be doing without all the internal sabotage and coup attempts against him.

Donal Og
31-05-2017, 09:05 PM
Yougov were wrong on Brexit , Scottish independence and UK GE 2015. They issued lots of caveats. So no...I think May will win it. But she was expecting a massive majority. Hopefully it wont happen.

Apjp
01-06-2017, 05:32 AM
no mate its not the papers its the lads hes workin with sayin corbins a **** over that....

Then they all read too much right wing ***** like the Sun and whatever fake ***** is on FB.

Either way unless your brother and their mates want to come on here can we forget about them please?

barrym
01-06-2017, 07:16 AM
YouGov say have "improved" their processes, they would say that after the brexit shambles. If they have upgraded, maybe the projection is possible? Even if not, Ms May will not have a big majority?

Interesting really, in the face of media bias, a ridiculous voting system, etc., the people are reacting.

Shaadi
01-06-2017, 10:35 AM
YouGov say have "improved" their processes, they would say that after the brexit shambles. If they have upgraded, maybe the projection is possible? Even if not, Ms May will not have a big majority?

Interesting really, in the face of media bias, a ridiculous voting system, etc., the people are reacting.

There's huge room for error in these polls, although error may be unfair given that the polls can only report back the choices people say they are going to make.

UK GE 2015 Cons 36.9%, Lab 30.4% is supposedly going to turn into a possible Cons 46%, Labour 35% and that's in a campaign where Labour had been below 25% and the Cons were hitting 50%.

That's mad volatility similar to our IMF coming to town polling volatility. Getting the polling right may end up being down to pure luck for a polling company rather than as a result of good processes.

pluralist
01-06-2017, 11:24 PM
Even the Telegraph have tired of May's crap campaign:

https://twitter.com/ToryFibs/status/870338168733786113

pluralist
02-06-2017, 12:46 AM
Hilarious.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-theresa-may-election-campaign-disastrous-manifesto-history-conservatives-tory-labour-a7763631.html

barrym
02-06-2017, 06:37 AM
Yes, she seems to be losing it. But.....will the Cons lose? Don't think so, unfortunately. Voting system, the shires are unmoved.

Could be interesting after a couple of rounds with Barnier though.

Donal Og
04-06-2017, 03:56 PM
I think she will win. But the whole campaign - on both sides - seems like a massive displacement activity. The hangover still has to be faced. I thought this would be the Brexit election , I was wrong. It's a case of backs to the engines - people waffling on incoherently about the IRA , Trident , police numbers , Corby's allotment , Teresa's taste in shoes, the Commonwealth.

barrym
05-06-2017, 07:35 AM
The effect of London Bridge? Tories are the law and order crowd, but Cobyrn has criticised reduced police spending....

Donal Og
05-06-2017, 07:50 AM
Always keep a hold of nurse. Corbyn has had quite a good campaign. Not especially difficult given the low expectations mind you. And May's tactic of not bothering to engage , just acting presidential , has backfired somewhat. Lynton Crosby must have told her there was no point debating on tv when she was 20 points ahead. Just let the Tory papers and Sky slag off Labour for three weeks. It hasn't worked too well. Problem is not these 3 weeks however , it's the two years of civil war in Labour since Corbyn took over. And the concomitant ridicule in the media. Too big a mountain I'm afraid.

jmcc
05-06-2017, 07:24 PM
That's mad volatility similar to our IMF coming to town polling volatility. Getting the polling right may end up being down to pure luck for a polling company rather than as a result of good processes.That Yougov model looks rather interesting in that it is not the usual disposable opinion poll. The blending of data from adjacent areas where the sample is too small seems a possible weakness but it is a good approach. The real validation of the model will be, apart from how it resembles the results, in how it deals with the effects of exceptional events (like the impact of the terrorist attacks on various opinion polls between now and polling day).

Regards...jmcc

C. Flower
05-06-2017, 08:03 PM
Amber Rudd has a candidate's speech shut down in her local hustings meeting.

https://www.facebook.com/EvolvePolitics/videos/1852960231622582/

Great British Democracy at work.

C. Flower
06-06-2017, 05:18 PM
That Yougov model looks rather interesting in that it is not the usual disposable opinion poll. The blending of data from adjacent areas where the sample is too small seems a possible weakness but it is a good approach. The real validation of the model will be, apart from how it resembles the results, in how it deals with the effects of exceptional events (like the impact of the terrorist attacks on various opinion polls between now and polling day).

Regards...jmcc

Watched some video of a crowd of several thousand, very excited, gathering to hear Corbyn in Leeds, Yorkshire. There is a mood for change there not altogether different to the Brexit vote. People in working class areas are heartily sick of Tories in government. It is a far more mixed picture elsewhere, with the result anyone's guess.

DCon
06-06-2017, 09:35 PM
Murdoch wants May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBqwiktUAAAbFSR.jpg

barrym
07-06-2017, 06:59 AM
Watched some video of a crowd of several thousand, very excited, gathering to hear Corbyn in Leeds, Yorkshire. There is a mood for change there not altogether different to the Brexit vote. People in working class areas are heartily sick of Tories in government. It is a far more mixed picture elsewhere, with the result anyone's guess.

Agreed, but unlikely to change a result. May will not be strong enough to face down anti-EU Tories. Couple that with a tough line from Brussels after the June 19th meetings and it could be interesting. Will she really go for "no agreement"? If she does it really f's up our situation.

I wonder if Veradkar's team have a plan b?

Donal Og
07-06-2017, 10:57 AM
I don't think even Britain has a plan B. My brother has worked for UK Customs & Revenue since the 70s. If the UK is to leave with no deal you would need thousands of extra staff, enlarged port facilities etc. But as of last year cuts and privatization are proceeding apace. So his conclusion : either there will be no hard Brexit or the Tories just don't have a clue how to do this.

barrym
07-06-2017, 11:11 AM
Apropos, latest from Richard Murphy, Corbyn's economic guru.

The leaders of Europe must be laughing themselves silly

Posted: 06 Jun 2017 12:12 AM PDT

Thursday looms on the horizon. I was told by a journalist yesterday that I should be in good heart. Most of his colleagues, he assured me, believed Labour was in for a good night. Because I simply do not know I cannot share their confidence. The fact is that bizarrely, after an election campaign that they called and which has been so dire, the Tories remain ahead in polls. I am aware of the trajectory but the only cross that matters is the one made with that short stubby pencil. We’ll know on Thursday.

That said there are things we do know now. And they are worth reflecting on. The most important is that for a prime minister who said she needed this election to give her a strong mandate May will come out of this election greatly diminished.

This matters in Europe. She been seen to have no strategy. Her plans have a habit of falling apart. She can’t think on her feet. All she can do is duck the question. The leaders of Europe must be laughing themselves silly at the scale of her incompetence.

This matters for the Conservative party which she has treated with contempt: brand Theresa was what mattered. They will take a long time to forgive that.

It matters for cabinet government. When most in that cabinet have been kept firmly out of sight during this election you can be sure resentment is simmering.

It matters in the Commons. The Bastards on her back benches will run her ragged after this.

It will matter in the Lords. A thin manifesto gives them ample to chew upon.

Can May survive this? If she has a majority she will, I think, make it through Friday. But for how long will she continue after that? I do not know. The Tories aren’t subtle with a leader who threatens their hold on power. May looked unassailable. She doesn’t any more. And that is entirely her own fault. One way or another her days are, I think, numbered.

C. Flower
07-06-2017, 12:48 PM
Murdoch wants May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBqwiktUAAAbFSR.jpg

These guys the story said STOOD IN A CROWD IN TRAFALGAR SQUARE WHEN CORBYN WAS SPEAKING.

The British privately owned right wing media continues to do its best to determine the result of a General Election, using no matter what dross it can concoct.

C. Flower
07-06-2017, 07:05 PM
Corbyn speaking to a crowd in Trafalgar Square.

https://scontent-lhr3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/18813326_10213186498485477_1096860037473012769_n.j pg?oh=0ffc21d373ced1bf23e51a64c539e3d3&oe=59E679B4

DCon
07-06-2017, 08:56 PM
These guys the story said STOOD IN A CROWD IN TRAFALGAR SQUARE WHEN CORBYN WAS SPEAKING.

The British privately owned right wing media continues to do its best to determine the result of a General Election, using no matter what dross it can concoct.https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBvuU_pXcAACquQ.jpg

DCon
07-06-2017, 09:04 PM
Times/YouGov final poll for 2017 election - Tory lead of 7 points


https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DBvzml-XYAQNE0p.jpg


https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/872558807301455872

DCon
08-06-2017, 09:02 PM
Exit poll shows the Tories losing seats




UK exit poll:
Conservatives 314
Labour 266
SNP: 34
LDem: 14

C. Flower
08-06-2017, 09:09 PM
Exit poll shows the Tories losing seats

A hung parliament, if that poll is right. At least in some stations, a lot of young people did come out and vote for Corbyn.

Tories predicted to lose their 17 seat majority.

DCon
08-06-2017, 09:16 PM
Could SF take their seats to vote May out?

pluralist
08-06-2017, 09:21 PM
This is hilarious.

DCon
08-06-2017, 09:24 PM
This is hilarious.

It is

Gary Lineker has tweeted that May has own goal of the season

pluralist
08-06-2017, 09:28 PM
Resign! Resign! Resign!

DCon
08-06-2017, 09:28 PM
Gavan Reilly‏Verified account @gavreilly 13m13 minutes ago


BBC says Amber Rudd's seat isn't secured. In an election five days after a terrorist attack, the minister for justice may lose her seat.

pluralist
08-06-2017, 09:32 PM
ring the bells!

DCon
08-06-2017, 09:36 PM
BBC analysis shows 76 UK parliamentary seats are too close to call.

http://live.reuters.com/Event/UK_General_election_2?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=Social

DCon
08-06-2017, 09:46 PM
Lib Dems say they will not join a coalition


Getting funnier by the minute

DCon
08-06-2017, 09:49 PM
Vote by age group (Sky Data on the day poll)

18-34
Lab 63%
Con 27%

35-54
Lab 43%
Con 43%

55+
Lab 23%
Con 59%

https://twitter.com/SkyData/status/872931193855107072

DCon
08-06-2017, 10:37 PM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DB1PfzOWsAADdju.jpg

pluralist
08-06-2017, 10:54 PM
Two predictions:

Teresa May will resign tomorrow.

CFlower and the rest of the microleft will find a way to pretend that the Corbynites aren't really on the left, 'cos of them going against the Sacred Texts of Marxist-Leninism.

jmcc
08-06-2017, 11:05 PM
Fascinating election results. There will be a lot of red faces if the polls are wrong.

Regards...jmcc

pluralist
08-06-2017, 11:27 PM
Fascinating election results. There will be a lot of red faces if the polls are wrong.

Regards...jmcc

'tis almost as though your computer models are a bit s.hite.

Regards....pluralist

jmcc
09-06-2017, 12:58 AM
'tis almost as though your computer models are a bit s.hite.

Regards....pluralistNot my computer models.

Regards...jmcc

Sam Lord
09-06-2017, 01:32 AM
Scotland saves the Torys! Wtf ...

jmcc
09-06-2017, 01:42 AM
Scotland saves the Torys! Wtf ...A Tory/SNP coalition? It is one of those "anything can happen" nights.

Regards...jmcc

Sidewinder
09-06-2017, 03:42 AM
Looks like a minority Con administration propped up by the headbangers in the DUP, that'll go down like a lead balloon with Middle England LOL.

With the youth vote energised and Corbyn in fighting form, we could see a second election later in the year, when finally the malignant influence of the Boomer generation is broken.

DCon
09-06-2017, 04:56 AM
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DB2leZMUQAE1W1r?format=jpg

jmcc
09-06-2017, 05:06 AM
Boris for PM? Seems that the commentators have all been taken by surprise. P.ie seems to have disappeared in a fit of consternation at around 02:00 or so.

Regards...jmcc

barrym
09-06-2017, 06:15 AM
Well, well, I didn't expect it, but I am delighted for Corbyn.

My first reaction is how does their voting system generate that result. Used to be that the blues got these seats the reds got those seats. there was a lot of commentary about university towns. If that is what done it how permanent is that?

What odds on another election in '17?

The complete bummer, the DUP hold the balance of power. That crowd of slime balls.

C. Flower
09-06-2017, 08:08 AM
Theresa May go..

According to a very cross Conservative RTE pundit "Corbyn got a pack of young people out to vote for him".

:)

George123
09-06-2017, 08:20 AM
Theresa May go..

According to a very cross Conservative RTE pundit "Corbyn got a pack of young people out to vote for him".

:)Is that what democracy should be about. It is, after all, the young people who will inherit the mess of their elders.

DCon
09-06-2017, 09:09 AM
Is that what democracy should be about. It is, after all, the young people who will inherit the mess of their elders.

Well put

And after the geriatrics swung the referendum in Scotland (in fear of their pensions) it is nice to see the youth getting out and voting

dedogs
09-06-2017, 02:13 PM
Then they all read too much right wing ***** like the Sun and whatever fake ***** is on FB.

Either way unless your brother and their mates want to come on here can we forget about them please?

only if were forgetin your jurnalists as well mate.... ;);):)

dedogs
09-06-2017, 02:17 PM
Scotland saves the Torys! Wtf ...

theyre mad ***** them scotchs lads arent they wouldnt even vote to have their own government for their country????

dedogs
09-06-2017, 02:20 PM
Looks like a minority Con administration propped up by the headbangers in the DUP, that'll go down like a lead balloon with Middle England LOL.

With the youth vote energised and Corbyn in fighting form, we could see a second election later in the year, when finally the malignant influence of the Boomer generation is broken.

maddest shower of ******* youd meet on a days walk!!!! there was some lad on trhe radio there awhile ago said theyre goin to make may shut shops in england on sundays for their votes!!!!

dedogs
09-06-2017, 02:21 PM
Boris for PM? Seems that the commentators have all been taken by surprise. P.ie seems to have disappeared in a fit of consternation at around 02:00 or so.

Regards...jmcc

still gone there now any word on if its commin back atall????

jmcc
09-06-2017, 02:31 PM
still gone there now any word on if its commin back atall????Don't know. It has been offline since about 02:00 this morning. No sign of any announcements or even a proper error page. It looks like the database/backend fell over.

Regards...jmcc

dedogs
09-06-2017, 02:35 PM
Don't know. It has been offline since about 02:00 this morning. No sign of any announcements or even a proper error page. It looks like the database/backend fell over.

Regards...jmc

nothin worse than the backend fallin over.... :D:D:D

TotalMayhem
09-06-2017, 03:39 PM
Theresa May go..

Theresa may not go anywhere for the next coupla weeks but she'll be just an old lady takin' a walk. (or whatever they call a leader without followers these days). And cometh the hour, cometh the Boris.

GregTimo
09-06-2017, 05:44 PM
For those (like me) who feel asleep just as it was getting really exciting
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/08/calm-after-the-storm-britons-cast-their-vote-at-end-of-tough-campaign
The 3 minute version
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2017/jun/09/how-2017-election-night-unfolded-in-under-3-minutes-video

Again Hats off to Corbyn's team, Momentum and British Labour on a marvellous result . It was never going to happen in one leap, but this makes a huge difference . New Old Labour are back, and internationalist to boot ! Pity we don't have one here yet , endless struggles ahead , etc but a great day !
The summary https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017

Oberon
09-06-2017, 06:40 PM
A Tory/SNP coalition? It is one of those "anything can happen" nights.

Regards...jmcc

Teresa has accepted the cash for ashe's offer

TotalMayhem
09-06-2017, 07:03 PM
http://i.imgur.com/8zRb4lU.gif

10 Drowning Street

Der Spiegel (https://daily.spiegel.de/news/grossbritannien-theresa-may-stuerzt-das-land-in-grosse-unsicherheit-a-11604)

Trow
10-06-2017, 12:27 AM
Teresa has accepted the cash for ashe's offer

She might end up with her fingers burnt.

barrym
10-06-2017, 06:20 AM
There is a rumour about that she will survive. Boris is front runner (Paddy Power has him odds on), and will let her carry on with brexit. He will step in when the negotiations fail, and leave the EU.

The biggest laugh is that the Cons leader in Scotland is lgbt, engaged to her partner. She wants May to introduce the legislation, as a quid pro quo for saving her bacon. How will the DUP deal with that?

Fintan, in today's IT, revives the dark money from Saudi story, used to buy an ad in Metro on the day of the referendum, paid for by DUP.

barrym
10-06-2017, 06:22 AM
Would some numbers nerd on here like to analyse the polls? Seems to me they weren't far off the result. but I know nutting.

C. Flower
13-06-2017, 12:50 PM
British voters are reading up on the D.U.P. and realising they are about to get a terrorist organisation running their show.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/11/arlene-fosters-stance-on-paramilitary-groups-brought-into-question

John Major says that the D.U.P "will want money".

Trow
15-06-2017, 01:16 PM
Warning shots...
Quote.. I think it's very self-interested, putting party before peace in Northern Ireland - party interest before peace and stability in Northern Ireland - and I do think it's that serious. unquote.

– LORD HAIN
http://www.itv.com/news/utv/2017-06-15/tories-putting-party-before-peace-in-dup-deal/

pluralist
19-06-2017, 01:51 PM
Have no pity for May. Don’t forgive, and never forget why she must go

Owen Jones



https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/14/theresa-may-must-go-election-campaign

Trow
19-06-2017, 05:21 PM
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/14/theresa-may-must-go-election-campaign

Is'nt it curious that a van carrying a go home poster, targeting illegal immigrants would be written in English. Surely not the most common first language of your target audience. Or is it?

Donal Og
19-06-2017, 08:04 PM
But it probably is. Most asylum seekers have pretty good English.Part of the reason they see no future in Calais I suppose.

Trow
19-06-2017, 10:06 PM
But it probably is. Most asylum seekers have pretty good English.Part of the reason they see no future in Calais I suppose.

And then there are those who are not ''asylum seekers'' not registered anywhere on the states systems. Least not legally.

barrym
20-06-2017, 11:07 AM
Asylum seekers actually register their presence, in order to get asylum. Since the UK, like ourselves, has no residence registration, if you sneak in you are "unknown"

I suppose the relevance to this thread is obvious to some, not to me.

Trow
20-06-2017, 06:13 PM
Still no deal with the DUP. Theresa May warned not to take party for granted. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-40339330

Talks not going as expected... http://www.itv.com/news/utv/update/2017-06-20/dup-talks-with-conservatives-not-going-as-expected/

Trow
08-07-2017, 12:22 AM
And so....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxN1STgQXW8

DCon
09-12-2018, 08:25 PM
A UK government funded "charuty" has been attacking Labour and Corbyn in social media




A secret UK Government-funded infowars unit based in Scotland sent out social media posts attacking Jeremy Corbyn and the Labour Party.

On the surface, the cryptically named Institute for Statecraft is a small charity operating from an old Victorian mill in Fife.


But explosive leaked documents passed to the Sunday Mail reveal the organisation’s Integrity Initiative is funded with £2million of Foreign Office cash and run by military intelligence specialists





Labour MSP Neil Findlay said: “It would appear that we have a charity registered in Scotland and overseen by the Office of the Scottish Charity Regulator that is funded by the UK Government and is spewing out political attacks on UK politicians, the Labour Party and the Labour movement.

“Such clear political attacks and propaganda shouldn’t be coming from any charity. We need to know why the Foreign Office have been funding it.”



https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/foreign-office-funds-2m-infowars-13707574

jmcc
10-12-2018, 02:25 AM
A UK government funded "charuty" has been attacking Labour and Corbyn in social media Certainly an interesting story. The other one is the publication of the papers that were seized by the UK government from Facebook.

Regards...jmcc